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The financial sector’s growing interest in leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) for forecasting has been noted in recent years. In this chapter, we delve into the application of AI in financial forecasting within Indonesia’s stock market. Our primary focus is to assess how AI’s prediction potential can impact investors and financial regulators in this context. Our review spans existing literature on AI and financial forecasting, recent developments in the Indonesian stock market, and ethical and regulatory concerns that surround AI in finance. Our analysis indicates that AI can enhance forecast accuracy in Indonesia’s stock exchange; however, we must also consider limitations and challenges.

Motivated by empirical features that characterize cryptocurrency volatility data, the authors develop a forecasting strategy that can account for both model uncertainty and heteroskedasticity of unknown form. The theoretical investigation establishes the asymptotic optimality of the proposed heteroskedastic model averaging heterogeneous autoregressive (H-MAHAR) estimator under mild conditions. The authors additionally examine the convergence rate of the estimated weights of the proposed H-MAHAR estimator. This analysis sheds new light on the asymptotic properties of the least squares model averaging estimator under alternative complicated data generating processes (DGPs). To examine the performance of the H-MAHAR estimator, the authors conduct an out-of-sample forecasting application involving 22 different cryptocurrency assets. The results emphasize the importance of accounting for both model uncertainty and heteroskedasticity in practice.

This paper investigates how various strategies for combining forecasts, both simple and optimised approaches, are compared with popular individual risk models in estimating value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) in emerging market at alternative risk levels.

Using the case study of the Vietnamese stock market, the author produced one-day-ahead VaR and ES forecast from seven individual risk models and ten alternative forecast combinations. Next, the author employed a battery of backtesting procedures and alternative loss functions to evaluate the global predictive accuracy of the different methods. Finally, the author investigated the relative performance over time of VaR and ES forecasts using fluctuation test.

The empirical results indicate that, although combined forecasts have reasonable predictive abilities, they are often outperformed by one individual risk model. Furthermore, the author showed that the complex combining methods with optimised weighting functions do not perform better than simple combining methods. The fluctuation test suggests that the poor performance of combined forecasts is mainly due to their inability to cope with periods of instability.

This study reveals the limitation of combining strategies in the one-day-ahead VaR and ES forecasts in emerging markets. A possible direction for further research is to investigate whether this finding holds for multi-day ahead forecasts. Moreover, the inferior performance of combined forecasts during periods of instability motivates further research on the combining strategies that take into account for potential structure breaks in the performance of individual risk models. A potential approach is to improve the individual risk models with macroeconomic variables using a mixed-data sampling approach.

First, the authors contribute to the literature on the forecasting combinations for VaR and ES measures. Second, the author explored a wide range of alternative risk models to forecast both VaR and ES with recent data including periods of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although forecast combination strategies have been providing several good results in several fields, the literature of forecast combination in the VaR and ES context is surprisingly limited, especially for emerging market returns. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study investigating predictive power of combining methods for VaR and ES in an emerging market.

Confidence intervals play a crucial role in economics and finance, providing a credible range of values for an unknown parameter along with a corresponding level of certainty. Their applications encompass economic forecasting, market research, financial forecasting, econometric analysis, policy analysis, financial reporting, investment decision-making, credit risk assessment and consumer confidence surveys. Signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) finds applications in economics and finance across various domains such as economic forecasting, financial modeling, market analysis and risk assessment. A high SNR indicates a robust and dependable signal, simplifying the process of making well-informed decisions. On the other hand, a low SNR indicates a weak signal that could be obscured by noise, so decision-making procedures need to take this into serious consideration. This research focuses on the development of confidence intervals for functions derived from the SNR and explores their application in the fields of economics and finance.

The construction of the confidence intervals involved the application of various methodologies. For the SNR, confidence intervals were formed using the generalized confidence interval (GCI), large sample and Bayesian approaches. The difference between SNRs was estimated through the GCI, large sample, method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER), parametric bootstrap and Bayesian approaches. Additionally, confidence intervals for the common SNR were constructed using the GCI, adjusted MOVER, computational and Bayesian approaches. The performance of these confidence intervals was assessed using coverage probability and average length, evaluated through Monte Carlo simulation.

The GCI approach demonstrated superior performance over other approaches in terms of both coverage probability and average length for the SNR and the difference between SNRs. Hence, employing the GCI approach is advised for constructing confidence intervals for these parameters. As for the common SNR, the Bayesian approach exhibited the shortest average length. Consequently, the Bayesian approach is recommended for constructing confidence intervals for the common SNR.

This research presents confidence intervals for functions of the SNR to assess SNR estimation in the fields of economics and finance.

To understand the specificities of Cash-flow bullwhip in the context of major crises similar to that of COVID-19, to identify its financial impacts on the Moroccan FMCG companies, to establish the profile of the companies most affected by this CFB and finally to propose internal control mechanisms that should be put in place to mitigate the effects of Cash flow Bullwhip in such a context.

The authors chose to conduct descriptive research on companies operating in the fast-moving consumer goods sector in Morocco. For this purpose, a survey was conducted on a target population during the period from December 2020 to March 2021. To answer the different research questions, a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) has been conducted on the 21 variables obtained from the survey questions.

Small and medium-sized companies are those that have been the most financially impacted. Indeed, the instability of the cash flow conversion cycle increased their working capital requirements and limited their self-financing capacity. To face this situation, those companies used alternative means to finance their operational activity by using their equities or bank loans.

Due to the originality of the COVID 19 context, this study gives a different angle of view to analyze the cash flow bullwhip and its implications on the financial health of companies.

The increased capital requirements and the implementation of new liquidity standards under Basel III sparked various concerns among researchers, academics and other stakeholders. The question is whether Basel III regulation is ideal, that is, adequate to deal with a crisis, such as the 2007–2009 global financial crisis? The purpose of this paper is threefold: First, perform a stress testing exercise on the US banking sector, while examining liquidity and solvency risk indicators jointly under the Basel III regulatory framework. Second, allow the study to cover the post-crisis period, while referring to key Basel III regulatory requirements. And third, focus on the resilience of domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), which are supposed to support the US financial system in times of stress and therefore whose failure causes the entire financial system to fail.

The authors used a sample of the 24 largest US banks observed over the period Q1-2015 to Q1-2021 and a scenario-based vector autoregressive conditional forecasting approach.

The authors found that the model successfully produces accurate forecasts and simulates the responses of the solvency and liquidity indicators to different real and historical macroeconomic shocks. The authors also found that the US banking sector is resilient and can withstand both historical and hypothetical macroeconomic shocks because of its compliance with the Basel III capital and liquidity regulations, which consist of encouraging banks to hold high-quality liquid assets and stable funding resources and to strengthen their capital, which absorbs the losses incurred in a crisis.

The authors developed a framework for testing the resilience of the US banking sector under macroeconomic shocks, while examining liquidity and solvency risk indicators jointly under Basel III regulatory framework, a point not yet well studied elsewhere, and most studies on this subject are based on precrisis data. The authors also focused on the resilience of D-SIBs, whose failure causes the failure of the entire financial system, which previous studies have failed to examine.

This paper delves into cross-border E-business, unraveling its intricate dynamics and forecasting its future trajectory.

This paper projects the prospective market size of cross-border E-business in China for the year 2023 using the GM (1,1) gray forecasting model. Furthermore, to enhance the analysis, the paper attempts to simulate and forecast the size of China’s cross-border E-business sector using the GM (1,3) gray model. This extended model considers not only the historical trends of cross-border E-business but also the growth patterns of GDP and the digital economy.

The forecast indicates a market size of 18,760 to 18,934 billion RMB in 2023, aligning with the consistent growth observed in previous years. This suggests a sustained positive trajectory for cross-border E-business.

Cross-border e-commerce critically shapes China’s global integration and traditional industry development. The research in this paper provides insights beyond statistical trends, contributing to a nuanced understanding of the pivotal role played by cross-border e-commerce in shaping China’s economic future.

This research studies the development of the evolving dynamic system model and explores the important elements or factors and what detailed attributes are the main influences model in achieving the success of a business, industry and management. It also identifies the real and major differences between static and dynamic business management models and the detailed factors that influence them. Later, this research investigates the benefits/advantages and limitations/disadvantages of some research studies. The studies conducted in this research put more emphasis on the capabilities of system dynamics (SD) in modeling and the ability to measure, analyse and capture problems in business, industry, manufacturing etc.

The research presented in this work is a qualitative research based on a literature review. Publicly available research publications and reports have been used to create a research foundation, identify the research gaps and develop new analyses from the comparative studies. As the literature review progressed, the scope of the literature search was further narrowed down to the development of SD models. Often, references to certain selected literature have been examined to find other relevant literature. To do so, a supporting tool (that connects related articles) provided by Google Scholar, Scopus, and particular journals has been used.

The dynamic business and management model is very different from the static business model in complexity, formality, flexibility, capturing, relationships, advantages, innovation model, new goals, updated information, perspective and problem-solving abilities. The initial approach of a static system was applied in the canvas business model, but further developments can be continued with a dynamic system approach.

Based on this study, which shows that businesses are developing more towards digitalisation, wanting the ability to keep up with the era that is moving so fast and the desire to increase profits, an instrument is needed that can help describe the difficulties of the needs and developments of the future world. This instrument, or tool of SD, is also expected to assist in drawing future models and in building a business with complex variables that can be predicted from the beginning.

This study will contribute to the SD study for many business incubator research studies. Many practical in business incubator management to have a benefit how to achieve the business performance management (BPM) in SD review.

The significant differences between static and dynamics to be used for business research and strategic performance management. This comparative study analyses some SD models from many authors worldwide. Their goals behind their strategic business models and encounter for their respective progress.

This study empirically investigates how ambidextrous innovations and their balancing affect the supply chain financing performance (SCFP) of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), based on signaling theory. Moreover, this study explores the moderating effect of the breadth and depth of digital technology deployment on the relationship between ambidextrous innovations and the SCFP of SMEs.

A mixed-methods design is used, including a qualitative study and a quantitative study. Qualitative data have been collected from six multi-cases in different industries. Questionnaire data have been collected from 259 SMEs in China, and a multiple regression model is used to verify the research hypotheses.

The findings indicate that, in supply chain financing, both exploitative innovation and exploratory innovation are helpful in improving the SCFP of SMEs. For resource-constrained SMEs, a relative balance between exploitative innovation and exploratory innovation can help improve SCFP. The breadth of digital technology deployment can strengthen the relationship between exploitative innovation and SCFP, while the depth of digital technology deployment can weaken the relationship between exploratory innovation and SCFP. In addition, increasing the depth of digital technology deployment strengthens the positive correlation between the relative balance of ambidextrous innovations and SCFP.

To effectively obtain supply chain financing, SMEs can either concentrate their limited resources on a single type of innovation or use relative balance strategies to simultaneously pursue two innovations. In addition, in the process of obtaining supply chain financing by ambidextrous innovations, SMEs should appropriately deploy digital technologies.

This study first deconstructs the impact mechanism of ambidextrous innovation capabilities on SCFP based on signaling theory, and then discusses the balancing effect of ambidextrous innovations on SCFP in the cases of resource-constrained SMEs. This study also goes further and finds the negative moderating effect of digital technology deployment in the process of supply chain financing.