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Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Jose Perez-Montiel and Carles Manera

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic…

Abstract

Purpose

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

Design/methodology/approach

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

Findings

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

Originality/value

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 March 2024

Imran Khan and Darshita Fulara Gunwant

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the impact of social inclusion factors and foreign fund inflows on reducing gender-based unemployment in India.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the impact of social inclusion factors and foreign fund inflows on reducing gender-based unemployment in India.

Design/methodology/approach

A time series data set for the period of 1991–2021 has been considered, and an autoregressive distributed lag methodology has been applied to measure the short- and long-run impact of social inclusion and foreign fund inflows on reducing gender-based unemployment in India.

Findings

According to the study’s findings, both social inclusion and foreign fund inflows are critical factors for reducing male unemployment. However, in the case of female unemployment, only social inclusion factors play an important role, whereas foreign fund inflows have no role in it.

Originality/value

Analyzing the factors that affect gender-based unemployment has always been a grey area in literature. There are very few studies that capture gender-based unemployment in India, making this study a novice contribution. Second, it examines the relationship between foreign fund inflows, social inclusion and unemployment, which is another novel area of investigation. Finally, this study provides comprehensive and distinct results for both male and female unemployment that can help policymakers devise gender-based unemployment policies.

Details

Indian Growth and Development Review, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8254

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2023

Martin Hoesli, Louis Johner and Jon Lekander

Using data spanning 145 years for Sweden, the authors investigate the benefits of holding multi-family properties for investors who aim to hedge wage growth.

Abstract

Purpose

Using data spanning 145 years for Sweden, the authors investigate the benefits of holding multi-family properties for investors who aim to hedge wage growth.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors assess the risk-adjusted excess return that results from adding multi-family properties to a mixed-asset portfolio that aims to track wage growth. The authors also analyse the macroeconomic determinants of asset returns. Finally, the authors test whether a causal relationship exists between the growth rate of real wages and that of real net operating income.

Findings

The benefits from holding multi-family properties are the greatest for low-risk allocation approaches. For more risky strategies, the role of real estate is more muted, and it varies greatly over time. Holding real estate was most beneficial during the first two decades of the 21st century. Multi-family properties are found to be the only asset class to be positively related to wage growth. The authors show that the net operating income acts as the transmission channel between wages and property returns.

Practical implications

The paper assesses whether the growing interest of pension funds for multi-family properties is warranted in the context of a portfolio that aims to track wage growth.

Originality/value

Using long term data makes it possible to use a rolling windows approach and hence to consider multiple outcomes for an allocation strategy over a typical investment horizon. This permits to assess the dispersion of performance across several periods rather than just one as is commonly done in the literature. The results show that the conclusions that would be drawn from looking at the past two or three decades of data differ substantially from those for earlier time periods.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 42 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 September 2023

Sabrina Chikh-Amnache and Lotfi Mekhzoumi

Female entrepreneurship discussions will broaden and diversify as a result of global shifts. Studies of female entrepreneurship must take into account differences between male and…

Abstract

Purpose

Female entrepreneurship discussions will broaden and diversify as a result of global shifts. Studies of female entrepreneurship must take into account differences between male and female entrepreneurs due to the historical, cultural and social specificity of developing countries to narrow gender gaps, identify barriers, fine-tune support systems, release dormant potential and provide information for policymaking. This paper aims to measure and estimate the most crucial socioeconomic characteristics that Southeast Asian countries leverage to advance women’s business initiatives.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a panel data model whereby the Female Entrepreneurship Indicator Score serves as the dependent variable and the ten most important socioeconomic indicators serve as the independent variables. Ten southeast Asian countries are analyzed using the panel fixed effects approach of Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MM-QR) from 1980 to 2021.

Findings

It has been found by empirical panel quantile regression using the MM-QR method that the following indicators positively affect female entrepreneurship in southeast Asian countries: the assets indicator, the pay indicator, the workplace indicator, the mobility indicator and the a woman can sign a contract in the same way as a man indicator. But the parenthood indicator, the unemployment indicator, the school enrollment indicator, the men and women have equal ownership rights to immovable property indicator and the marriage indicator all have negative effects.

Originality/value

This paper uses a new method called MM-QR to look at how the most important socioeconomic factors affect female entrepreneurship in Southeast Asian countries. The results obtained will also add to and broaden the small amount of research that has been done on female entrepreneurs in developing countries.

Details

Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4604

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 September 2023

Jueshuai Wang

This paper aims to enhance the Global Projection Model (GPM) developed by the International Monetary Fund by constructing a GPM4 model that includes the United States of America…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to enhance the Global Projection Model (GPM) developed by the International Monetary Fund by constructing a GPM4 model that includes the United States of America, the Eurozone, Japan and China.

Design/methodology/approach

This article introduces the United States of America, the Eurozone, Japan and China into a comprehensive global forecasting model, analyzing the impact of liquidity management in G3 economies on nine key macroeconomic variables in China.

Findings

The findings reveal that the liquidity management strategies employed by major economies do exert a certain influence on China's major macroeconomic variables. Different types of liquidity shocks elicit varying effects. Monetary shocks exhibit the strongest instantaneous impact, while credit conditions and policy rate shocks contribute more significantly to China's long-term macroeconomic fluctuations. However, no single shock stands out as the dominant factor.

Originality/value

This paper attempts to expand the GPM model developed by the International Monetary Fund and build a GPM4 model including China, the United States of America, the Eurozone and Japan. For the first time, the GPM model was used to analyze the spillover effects of liquidity management in major economies on China's macroeconomy and revealed the impact of non-price factors such as credit conditions on China's macroeconomic variables.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 53 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 December 2023

Sven Rehers, Jon Lekander and Ansgar Bernhard Bendiek

This paper compares the benefits of direct international real estate investments in a mixed asset portfolio from the perspective of a passive investor with high and low bond…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper compares the benefits of direct international real estate investments in a mixed asset portfolio from the perspective of a passive investor with high and low bond allocation.

Design/methodology/approach

Due to high data availability and its professionalism, the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund was used as a representative example. Real estate indices from 8 countries were used for the portfolio analysis. The data were desmoothed according to Geltners’s 1993 approach.

Findings

The optimal real estate ratio in the present case is around 20–55%. However, this is strongly dependent on the bond ratio of the multi-asset portfolio. Portfolios with a high equity ratio benefit more from the additional direct real estate investments than portfolios with high bond ratios.

Research limitations/implications

A rebalancing of individual stocks and bonds was not analysed. Only indexes from MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) were available.

Practical implications

Concludes that the weighting of stocks and bonds has a strong influence on the optimal real estate ratio and therefore structural changes that affect this weighting.

Originality/value

The originality of the paper lies in the analysis with different weights of stocks and bonds, the consideration of 8 real estate markets and the observation period. The results of the work highlight areas of interest for further research.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 42 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Expert briefing
Publication date: 12 March 2024

The economy slowed sharply in the second half of 2023. Consumption is lower than a decade ago, as a consequence of population ageing and insufficient savings, which reflects a…

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB285796

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Book part
Publication date: 8 April 2024

Zuzana Szkorupová, Radmila Krkošková and Irena Szarowská

The aim of this chapter is to examine the nominal and real convergence of Czechia. The importance of the convergence of Czechia with the euro area is linked to the future…

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to examine the nominal and real convergence of Czechia. The importance of the convergence of Czechia with the euro area is linked to the future intention of joining the Economic and Monetary Union after the Maastricht criteria are met. This chapter covers the period from 2004 to 2021. We argue that nominal convergence is relative to the Maastricht criteria, when real convergence focuses on different areas: the Maastricht criteria, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in purchasing power standards and real GDP growth rate, labour market (minimum labour costs and unemployment rates. Findings suggest that Czechia has reported the strongest real convergence in the area of relative economic level, moderate convergence of labour costs and divergence of unemployment. The nominal convergence analysis suggests that Czechia will not meet the Maastricht benchmarks in the near future and is not ready to join the euro area given its high inflation rate and the state of public finances.

Details

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-841-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 October 2022

Fredrick Otieno Okuta, Titus Kivaa, Raphael Kieti and James Ouma Okaka

This paper studies the dynamic effects of selected macroeconomic factors on the performance of the housing market in Kenya using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models. This…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper studies the dynamic effects of selected macroeconomic factors on the performance of the housing market in Kenya using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models. This study aims to explain the dynamic effects of the macroeconomic factors on the three indicators of the housing market performance: housing prices growth, sales index and rent index.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used ARDL Models on time series data from 1975 to 2020 of the selected macroeconomic factors sourced from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Kenya and Hass Consult Limited.

Findings

The results indicate that household income, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rates and exchange rates have both short-run and long-run effects on housing prices while interest rates, diaspora remittance, construction output and urban population have no significant effects on housing prices both in the short and long run. However, only household income, interest rates, private capital inflows and exchange rates have a significant effect on housing sales both in the short and long run. Furthermore, household income, GDP, interest rates and exchange rates significantly affect housing rental growth in the short and long run. The findings are key for policymaking, especially at the appraisal stages of real estate investments by the developers.

Practical implications

The authors recommend the use of both the traditional hedonic models in conjunction with the dynamic models during real estate project appraisals as this would ensure that developers only invest in the right projects in the right economic situations.

Originality/value

The imbalance between housing demand and supply has prompted an investigation into the role of macroeconomic variables on the housing market in Kenya. Although the effects of the variables have been documented, there is a need to document the short-run and long-term effects of the factors to precisely understand the behavior of the housing market as a way of shielding developers from economic losses.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 March 2024

Oswald A. J. Mascarenhas, Munish Thakur and Payal Kumar

This chapter focuses on critical thinking as a new, powerful, and specialized tool and technique for understanding and analyzing the subtle operations of the free enterprise…

Abstract

Executive Summary

This chapter focuses on critical thinking as a new, powerful, and specialized tool and technique for understanding and analyzing the subtle operations of the free enterprise capitalist market system and its ethics and morality. Everything in the world of consumers and market enterprise systems are determined by our supply–demand system that in turn are determined by our presumed limitless production–distribution and consumption (LDPC) systems. From a critical thinking viewpoint, we study the free enterprise capitalist system (FECS) as a dynamic, interconnected organic system and not as a discrete or compartmentalized body of disaggregate parts. Systems thinking with critical thinking calls for a shift of our mindset from seeing just parts to seeing the whole reality in its structured dynamic unity; both mandate that we see ourselves as active participators or partners of FECS and not as mere cogs in its wheels or as mere factors of its production processes. Critical thinking seeks to identify the “structures” that underlie complex situations in FECS with those that bring about high- versus low-leveraged changes in various versions of capitalism. Specifically, this chapter applies critical thinking to FECS as defined by its founder, Adam Smith, in 1776 to its fundamental and structural assumptions, and as supported or critiqued by serious scholars such as Karl Marx, Maynard Keynes, C. K. Prahalad and Allen Hammond (inclusive capitalism), John Mackey and Rajendra Sisodia (conscious capitalism), and others.

Details

A Primer on Critical Thinking and Business Ethics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-312-1

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