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This paper investigates the validity of the expectations hypothesis for the term structure of interest rates in the context of the deposit interest rates in Kuwait. The data set covers average inter local bank interest rates on deposits of Kuwaiti Dinar (KD) with maturity of one, three and six months from the period June 1994 to August 2008. We utilize Johansen procedures to examine the relationship between spot and forward rates. Our findings show that the spot and forward rates are cointegrated for all cases, the one month interest rates, the three month interest rates as well as the six month interest rates. The explanation of this relationship indicates that the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates is accepted for the case of Kuwait.

Reverse floating interest rate‐linked structured products are important innovative products for investors to achieve a relatively high yield at low interest rates, and the reasonable pricing of such products is an important factor to influence investors' needs and issuers' profits. The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the rationality of the pricing of reverse floating interest rate‐linked products.

This paper combines the Itô's Lemma and introduces the Black‐Derman‐Toy (BDT) model into the time‐varying volatility to build a binary tree interest rates BDT model under the time‐varying volatility, and to establish the pricing model of reverse floating interest rate‐linked products. Dozens of product data of ABN AMRO Bank and other world‐renowned banks or financial institutions are empirically analyzed.

The results show that the average pricing of these products is high, and the expected rate of return of the product is lower than the same period of the Five‐year US Treasury Bill rate.

This paper has combined the theory and practice together. The research method described in this paper is of significance to the pricing of interest rate‐linked structured products, and the pricing method of binary tree BDT model to solve the term structure of interest rates and estimation problem of volatility term structure of interest rates.

Interest rate risk, i.e. the risk of changes in the interest rate term structure, is of high relevance in insurers' risk management. Due to large capital investments in interest rate sensitive assets such as bonds, interest rate risk plays a considerable role for deriving the solvency capital requirement (SCR) in the context of Solvency II. This paper seeks to address these issues.

In addition to the Solvency II standard model, the author applies the model of Gatzert and Martin for introducing a partial internal model for the market risk of bond exposures. After introducing calibration methods for short rate models, the author quantifies interest rate and credit risk for corporate and government bonds and demonstrates that the type of process can have a considerable impact despite comparable underlying input data.

The results show that, in general, the SCR for interest rate risk derived from the standard model of Solvency II tends to the SCR achieved by the short rate model from Vasicek, while the application of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross model leads to a lower SCR. For low‐rated bonds, the internal models approximate each other and, moreover, show a considerable underestimation of credit risk in the Solvency II model.

The aim of this paper is to assess model risk with focus on bonds in the market risk module of Solvency II regarding the underlying interest rate process and input parameters.

This paper shows that for a large class of single and multi‐factor term structure models, including the affine class, the market price of risk is directly related to the parameters of the stochastic processes of the underlying factors of the economy. It is shown that the market price of risk is proportional to the limit of the volatility of zero coupon bond returns. This means that the market price of risk is not entirely arbitrary. Not only it must be consistent with no arbitrage conditions, also it must be consistent with the parameters of stochastic processes of the factors that describe the economy. If the market price of risk is not correctly specified, then it could lead to profit opportunities of the type discussed in Backus et al (1996). Another consequence of our result is that in empirical tests of interest rate processes, the market price of risk should not be specified exogenously since its value is a function of the parameters of the model. We extend our result to forward processes. The market price of risk is shown to be a function of the volatility of the forward rate processes.

This paper aims to investigate the existing relations between the management of public bonds on the dynamics of debt, term structure of interest rates and economic cycle, through a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), which was estimated through Bayesian inference techniques using data from Brazil.

The model developed was used to investigate the effects of the public debt average maturity management when the economy faces a monetary policy shock. For this, three management scenarios are evaluated, including Brazilian securities average term.

Contrary to what might be inferred from DSGE models that limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing only one-period bonds, a contractionary monetary policy shock does not necessarily cause public debt to increase significantly. Debt term structure plays a crucial role in this result since the government does not need to roll the debt over at higher costs when the debt term profile is longer, reducing the debt service costs and then the impact on the overall debt.

Despite the relevance of this theme and its implications for the dynamics of the economy, there is still a gap to be filled in the literature when using DSGE models, since most part of the work that used this methodology limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing that government issues only one-period bonds. This paper differs from the others insofar as it promotes an investigation focused on the role played by debt maturity management on the performance of the contractionary monetary policy. This approach can generate a better understanding of debt management policy and its interaction with fiscal and monetary policies.

Analyses the empirical relation between the one‐month interest rate, the long‐term interest rate and the motgage rate in The Netherlands. To study the dynamic interactions between these variables, vector autoregressive techniques are used. Concentrates on the question of whether the mortgage rate dynamics can correctly be described by a one‐factor interest rate model. One‐factor interest rate models allow mathematical derivations of deterministic equations to price interest rate derivatives. Finds, however, that a single factor does not correctly describe the interest rate term structure. Hence, to model the mortgage rate dynamics accurately more factors should be included.

In this chapter I characterize the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the terms structure of interest rates using the recent macro-finance approach adapted to the case of an emerging economy and applying it to Brazil. I find that macro variables help to explain the dynamics of the yield curve in emerging markets, specially in periods of high volatility. Moreover, the notion of great external vulnerability of emerging economies is confirmed by the strong role of the nominal exchange rate change, which explains up to 37% of the variation in yields in Brazil. However, the model does a poor job in forecasting yields during the financial crisis of 2008. This fact seems to be related to the strong fall in international commodity and industrial goods prices (in dollar terms), which limited the passthrough from the strong depreciation of the exchange rate to inflation.

The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the transmission mechanism between benchmark interest rate of financial market, money market interest rate and capital market yields in order to reveal the dynamic evolution characters and core influential structure between different market interest rates.

Using Dirichlet-VAR (DVAR) model, this study analyze the relationship between markets rates according to the equilibrium model in money market and capital market.

Empirical results show that the interest rate transmission mechanism functions smoothly between interest rates of different levels. Interest rate of bills issued by the central bank can effectively reflect changes in monetary policy and guide the fluidity of market, playing the anchor role in interest rate pricing. There exists a closed loop feedback between interest rate of bills issued by the central bank, and money market interest rate, as well as between money market interest rate and bond market interest rate. The former is a loop by administrative means while the latter is the one mainly affected by market-oriented means. The response by money market and bond market toward the change of benchmark interest rate is unsymmetrical as money market is more sensitive to a loose monetary policy while bond market is more sensitive to a tight monetary policy. Stock market is strongly affected by uncertainty of benchmark interest rate.

DVAR model is the extension of research on instable data and multiple variable causality test, which expands the causality analysis between two variables to multiple variables causality impact analysis which contains non-stable and structurally instable economic data.

Following Ang and Piazzesi’s (2003) study, the authors use an affine term structure model to study the relevance of macroeconomic (domestic and foreign) factors for Peru’s sovereign yield curve in the period from November 2005 to December 2015. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

Risk premia are modeled as time-varying and depend on both observable and unobservable factors; and the authors estimate a vector autoregressive model considering no-arbitrage assumptions.

The authors find evidence that macro factors help to improve the fit of the model and explain a substantial amount of variation in bond yields. However, their influence is very sensitive to the specification model. Variance decompositions show that macro factors explain a significant share of the movements at the short and middle segments of the yield curve (up to 50 percent), while unobservable factors are the main drivers for most of the movements at the long end of the yield curve (up to 80 percent). Furthermore, the authors find that international markets are relevant for the determination of the risk premium in the short term. Higher uncertainty in international markets increases bond yields, although this effect vanishes quickly. Finally, the authors find that no-arbitrage restrictions with the incorporation of macro factors improve forecasts.

To the authors’ knowledge this is the first application of this type of models using data from an emerging country such as Peru.

This paper presents an integrated overview of the empirical literature on the impact of all forms of unconventional monetary policy on macroeconomic variables and on markets.

This survey covers the findings concerning portfolio rebalancing, signaling, liquidity, bank lending and confidence channels.

The positive effect of QE announcements on stock and bond prices seems to be unified across studies. A contagion effect from US QE to other emerging markets is identified, while currency devaluation is present in most cases for the country that its central bank adopted such policies. Moreover, impacts of non-conventional practices on GDP, inflation and unemployment are examined. The studies presenting weak instead of strong positive effects on inflation are more, and these studies, also, present weak positive effects on GDP growth.

Based on the large body of research on non-conventional action taking, this is the first survey including effects of each country that adopted quantitative easing (QE) measures and that provides results from every methodology employed in order to estimate unconventional practices' impacts.