Search results

The purpose of this study is to investigate interest rate sensitivity of the US property/liability (P/L) insurers stock returns using various return generating process models incorporating different interest rate changes such as actual interest rate changes, unexpected interest rate changes and orthogonalized market returns.

The study follows the 1974 two‐index model by Stone. In the two‐index model, three different interest rate indices are tested one at a time to examine if interest rate sensitivity of the insurers stock returns, if any, is vulnerable to an interest rate index used.

It is found that the US P/L insurers' stock returns are sensitivity to interest rate changes. The impact of actual interest rate changes on the stock returns is little different from that of unexpected interest rate changes, which is consistent with findings in the banking literature. When orthogonalized market returns are used in the models in lieu of actual market returns, the statistical significance on the estimated interest rate sensitivity of the returns improves. Consistent with extant studies of financial institution's interest rate sensitivity, the paper also reports that the interest rate sensitivity of insurer stock returns is time varying.

Due to the data availability, the period studied is between 1992 and 2001. However, the sample period does not weaken the findings of the study. In addition, future research could incorporate the insurers' balance sheet items to investigate which balance sheet items (i.e. investment in bonds, stocks and other items on asset side and reserves and other items on liability side) explain most interest rate sensitivity.

Investors can adopt the findings of this study in creating or adjusting their portfolio with the US P/L insurers in it. The insurers stock returns are more sensitive to changes in long‐term interest rate when the underwriting profit increases and the stock returns are more sensitive to changes in short‐term interest rate when the underwriting profit decreases.

Although generalization is difficult and the conclusion is not as convincing as it could be because only one underwriting cycle is sampled, it is still noteworthy to recognize that the insurers' interest rate sensitivity is closely related to the insurance industry's underwriting cycle or performance.

This is the first study reporting the association between the interest rate sensitivity of the US stock returns and the underwriting performance.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on US banks’ stock returns.

The approach employs an EGARCH model to account for the ARCH effects in daily returns. Most prior studies have used standard OLS estimation methods with the result that the presence of ARCH effects would have affected estimation efficiency. For comparative purposes, the standard OLS estimation method is also used to measure sensitivity.

The findings are as follows: under the conditional t‐distributional assumption, the EGARCH model generated a much better fit to the data although the goodness‐of‐fit of the model is not entirely satisfactory; the market index return accounts for most of the variation in stock returns at both the individual bank and portfolio levels; and the degree of sensitivity of the stock returns to interest rate and FX rate changes is not very pronounced despite the use of high frequency data. Earlier results had indicated that daily data provided greater evidence of exposure sensitivity.

Assuming that banks do not hedge perfectly, these findings have important financial implications as they suggest that the hedging policies of the banks are not reflected in their stock prices. Alternatively, it is possible that different GARCH‐type models might be more appropriate when modelling high frequency returns.

The paper contributes to existing knowledge in the area by showing that ARCH effects do impact on measures of sensitivity.

Recognising that different property sectors have distinct risk-return characteristics, this paper assesses whether changes in the level and volatility of short- and long-term interest rates differentially affected excess returns of sector-specific Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the Pacific Rim region between July 2006 and December 2018. The strategic property risk management implications for sector-specific REITs are also identified.

Daily excess returns between July 2006 and December 2018 are used to analyse the sensitivity in the level and volatility of interest rates for REITs among office, retail, industrial, residential and specialty REITs across the USA, Japan, Australia and Singapore. The generalised autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean (GARCH-M) methodology is employed to assess the linkage between interest rates and excess returns of sector-specific REITs.

Compared with diversified REITs, sector-specific REITs were less sensitive to short- and long-term interest rate changes across the USA, Japan, Australia and Singapore between July 2006 and December 2018. Of sector-specific REITs, retail and residential REITs were susceptible to interest rate movements over the full study period. On the other hand, office and specialty REITs were generally less sensitive to changes in the level and volatility of short- and long-term interest rate series across all markets in the Pacific Rim region. However, the interest rate sensitivity of industrial REITs was somewhat mixed. This sector was sensitive to interest rate movements, but no comparable evidence was found since the onset of GFC.

The insignificant exposure to interest rate risk of sector-specific REITs may imply that they have a stronger interest rate risk aversion and greater hedging benefits than their diversified counterparts, particularly for office and specialty REITs. The results support the existence of REIT specialisation value in the Pacific Rim region from the interest rate risk management perspective. This is particularly valuable to international property investors constructing and managing portfolios with REITs in the region. Property investors are advised to be aware of the disparities in the magnitude and direction of sensitivity to the interest rate level and volatility of REITs across different property sectors and various markets in the Pacific Rim region. This study is expected to enhance property investors' understanding of interest rate risk management for different property types of REITs in local, regional and international investment portfolios.

The study is the first to assess the interest rate sensitivity of REITs across different property sectors and various markets in the Pacific Rim region. More importantly, this is the first paper to offer empirical evidence on the existence of specialisation value in the Pacific Rim REIT markets from the aspect of interest rate sensitivity. This research may enhance property investors' understanding of the varying interest rate sensitivity of different property types of REITs across the USA, Japan, Australia and Singapore.

This study employs a multivariate GARCH model to investigate the relative sensitivities of the first and the second moment of bank stock return distribution to the short‐term and long‐term interest rates and their respective volatilities. Three portfolios are formed representing the money center banks, large banks, and small banks, respectively. Estimation and testing of hypotheses are carried out for each of the three portfolios separately. The sample includes daily data over the 1988‐2000 period. Several hypotheses are tested within the multivariate GARCH specification. These include the hypotheses of: (i) insensitivity of bank stock return to the changes in the short‐term and long‐term interest rates, (ii) insensitivity of bank stock returns to the changes in the volatilities of short‐term and long‐term interest rates, and (iii) insensitivity of bank stock return volatility to the changes in the short‐term and long‐term interest rate volatilities. The findings indicate that short‐term and long‐term interest rates and their volatilities do exert significant and differential impacts on the return generation process of the three bank portfolios. The magnitudes and the direction of the effect are model‐specific namely that they depend on whether the short‐term or the long‐term interest rate level is included in the mean return equation. These findings have implications on bank hedging strategies against the interest rate risk, regulatory decisions concerning risk‐based capital requirement, and investor’s choice of a portfolio mix.

Computing the duration of real estate assets is a challenging task due to the particularities of the property market. This paper aims to develop an empirical model to compute the interest‐rate sensitivity of direct real estate assets in the Swiss multifamily housing market.

An aggregated total return index is used to empirically estimate the interest‐rate sensitivity of the underlying assets in a dynamic DCF model. No instantaneous change is computed but a long‐run price adjustment.

The long‐run sensitivity is computed to be roughly 4.5 per cent. The value is found to be statistically significant at the 1 per cent level. The model is estimated over two different time periods and the estimate remains significant over both periods with value changing marginally. Potential reliance of trends when forming expectations is found to be present.

One limitation is that the computed value is valid for a portfolio having a similar composition with the index used for the empirical estimation.

The value of the interest‐rate sensitivity places Swiss direct real estate assets within the European range. The value may be used to compute the risk‐based capital of an institutional investor in as far as the portfolio is similar in composition with the index.

The use of the dynamic DCF model allows one to split the changes in asset prices in changes from interest‐rates and changes from cashflows. No value was previously available for the market of Swiss multifamily properties.

The purpose of this study is to trace time variation paths in risk sensitivities of bank stock returns over the period of 1990-2014, which covers one of most serious financial crises in the history of the USA.

This study programs the flexible least squares (FLS) approach (Kalaba and Testfatsion, 1988, 1989 and 1990) with R, a free statistical computing and graphics software, to estimate the three-factor model developed by He and Reichert (2003) to examine changes in risk sensitivities of bank stocks to the stock market, bond market and real estate market.

Both FLS and ordinary least squares (OLS) results indicate that the bond market (interest rate) sensitivity of bank stock returns experiences dramatic changes. It is significantly positive before the 2006 subprime mortgage crisis (11/1990 to 5/2006), reduces to insignificant in a short period of 11/2006 to 10/2008 and turns into significantly negative during the period of 11/2008-11/2014. Further, results of this study indicate that bank stocks negatively respond to changes in housing prices in the period of 11/1990-1/1994 and after that the sensitivity turns into significantly positive. The significant shifts in risk sensitivities of banks stock returns coincide with alterations in long-term interest rates and monetary policy, especially the enormously stimulative monetary policy after the financial crisis in 2008.

This study programs the FLS approach with R and uses the FLS approach to demonstrate the time variation paths of risk sensitivities of bank stocks over a period that covers the 2008 financial crisis. The OLS results verify the significant shifts in risk sensitivities suggested by the FLS estimates.

This study attempts to determine whether the level and volatility of interest rates affect the equity returns of commercial banks. Short‐term, intermediate‐term, and long‐term interest rates are used. Volatility is defined as the conditional variance of respective interest rates and is generated by using the ARCH estimation procedure. Two sets of models are estimated. The basic models attempt to determine the effect of contemporaneous and lagged interest rate volatility on bank equity returns, while the extended models incorporate additional contemporaneous macroeconomic variables. Contemporaneous interest rate volatility has little explanatory power, while lagged volatilities do possess some explanatory power, with the lag length varying depending on the interest rate series used and the time period examined. The results from the extended model suggest that the long‐term interest rate affects bank equity returns more adversely than the short‐term or the intermediate‐term interest rates. The findings establish the relevance of incorporating macroeconomic variables and their volatilities in models determining bank equity returns.

The values of assets and liabilities of financial institutions are subject to fluctuations in interest rate. The differential impact in interest rate changes between assets and liabilities is referred to, in banking, as interest rate risk. Of all threats to bank competitiveness this risk dwarfs all others. Banks traditionally have dealt with interest rate risk by restructuring their loan portfolios. In this paper, we construct a model to measure interest rate risk, called the Degree of Interest Rate Sensitivity (DIRS), and demonstrate its effectiveness for banks to compete. The degree of interest rate risk is of vital importance to the commercial bank which has to know its level and degree of interest‐rate risk in order to prudently manage it. Failure to adequately manage interest rate risk can lead to bankruptcy or, at the least, a lack of competitiveness.

After loan interest rate upper limit deregulation in October 2004, the financing environment in China changed dramatically, and the banks were eligible for risk compensation. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the influence of the loan interest rate liberalization on firms’ loan maturity structure.

Based on Rajan's (1992) model, the authors constructed a trade-off model of how the banks choose long-term and short-term loans scales, and further analyzed banks’ loan term decisions under the loan interest rate upper limit deregulation or collateral cases. Then the authors used an unbalanced panel data set of 586 Chinese listed manufacturing companies and 9,376 observations during the period 1996-2011 to testify the theoretical conclusion. Furthermore, the authors studied the effect on firms with different characteristics of ownership or scale.

The results show that the loan interest rate liberalization significantly decreases the private companies’ reliance on short-term loans and increases sensitivity to interest rates of state-owned companies’ long-term loans. But the results also show that the companies’ ownership still plays a key role on the long-term loans availability. When monetary policy tightened, small companies still have to borrow short-term loans for long-term purposes. As the bank industry is still dominated by state-owned banks and the deposit interest rate has upper limits, the effect of the loan interest rate liberalization on easing long-term credit constraints is limited.

From a new perspective, the content and findings of this paper contribute to the study of the effect of the interest rate liberalization on China economy.

This paper aims to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the influence of interest rate risk on Spanish firms at the industry level.

The methodology employed has its origin in the two‐index linear regression model proposed by Stone. This traditional interest rate exposure model has been extended in this paper to allow for a nonlinear exposure component as well as the presence of asymmetric behaviour in the exposure pattern.

Interest rate exposure is not homogeneous for all the Spanish industries. In line with other markets, highly leveraged industries (construction and real estate), regulated industries (electrical and utilities), and banking industry are the most interest rate sensitive. Nevertheless, the interest rate exposure of Spanish firms also shows some distinctive features due to the peculiar structure of the Spanish market. It is also documented that the classical linear exposure profile prevails over the nonlinear and asymmetric exposure patterns, and that the introduction of the euro seems to have weakened the degree of interest rate risk.

The evidence presented in this paper can be used as input in decision making by corporate managers, investors, and regulators interested in assessing the impact of interest rate risk at the sector level for hedging, portfolio management, or risk assessment purposes.

This is the first paper which tackles the analysis of the impact of interest rate risk on Spanish firms, taking into account not only the standard linear interest rate exposure profile but also the nonlinear one. The results found in the Spanish case reveal the existence of particularities which might also be present in countries immersed in a process of dramatic economic transformations similar to that experienced by Spain over the past two decades. This is the case of the Central and Eastern European countries which recently joined the European Union.