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Book part
Publication date: 4 October 2018

Tatre Jantarakolica and Korbkul Jantarakolica

For the past decades, issues concerning the impact of economic integration on financial integration, especially exchange rate integration, has been criticized among several…

Abstract

For the past decades, issues concerning the impact of economic integration on financial integration, especially exchange rate integration, has been criticized among several regions such as ASEAN. This chapter intends to: (i) test for the exchange rate integration among the ASEAN-5, including Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, using panel data techniques; and (ii) determine the impact of economic integration on the level of exchange rate integration among the ASEAN-5 countries. The purchasing power parity (PPP) is tested using panel unit root tests on monthly data. The results confirm the PPP among the ASEAN-5 countries due to lower transaction costs from ASEAN agreements. The chapter applies Multivariate GARCH (M-GARCH) models using daily data to determine the level of exchange rate integration among the ASEAN-3, including Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. The results of panel cointegration tests using quarterly data of economic integration and exchange rate integration confirm the impact of international trade openness on exchange rate integration. With free trade agreements leading to lower trade barriers, lower transaction costs, and low transportation costs, the economic integration among ASEAN countries practically leads to a higher degree of exchange rate integration. The findings imply that trade liberalization has the strongest effect on the real exchange rate. As such, regulators of ASEAN countries should pay more attention to the exchange rate policies of each other because of the interdependence of their exchange rates.

Details

Banking and Finance Issues in Emerging Markets
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78756-453-4

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 March 2022

Isiaka Akande Raifu and Oluwafemi Mathew Adeboje

The purpose of this study is to examine the existence of discouraged worker effect hypothesis and unemployment invariance hypothesis in Africa, including its five regional groups…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the existence of discouraged worker effect hypothesis and unemployment invariance hypothesis in Africa, including its five regional groups. Specifically, the study tests the existence of co-integration between different categories of labour force participation and unemployment rate, total male and female labour force participation and the unemployment rate for age brackets 15–24, 15–64 and 15+, respectively.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the data of 52 countries in Africa which cover the period from 1991 to 2018. Three co-integration estimation techniques namely, the Kao co-integration test, Pedroni co-integration test and Westerlund co-integration test are used to validate the existence of co-integration between the labour force participation and unemployment rate. The dynamic ordinary least square is further used to explore the impact of the unemployment rate on labour force participation, while the pooled ordinary least squares (POLS) that accounts for individual country and time effects is employed for robustness check.

Findings

Except for Southern Africa, it is found that the discouraged worker effect hypothesis holds in Africa and the rest of its regions. This suggests that there is a long-run relationship between labour force participation rate and unemployment rate irrespective of age group and gender classifications. To some extent, the authors discover the existence of cross-sectional dependence in the panel. There is also an inverse relationship between labour force participation and the unemployment rate. This implies that when the unemployment rate is high, labour force participation tends to decline. The results are, however, sensitive to the choice of estimation method.

Research limitations/implications

The study is limited to the examination of linear co-integration between labour force participation and the unemployment rate in Africa and its five regions. The future study can investigate the possibility of a nonlinear or an asymmetric relationship between labour for participation and the unemployment rate.

Social implications

Thus, a policy framework that would generate employment creation is greatly required in Africa.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is a pioneer work that addresses the issue of co-integration between labour force participation and unemployment rate for Africa and its five regions taking into consideration gender and age brackets of labour force participation and unemployment.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2003

Tien Foo Sing and Sook Beng Stephanie Sng

This study tests the hypothesis of market integration between the securitised and the unsecuritised real estate market by examining the information contents of their respective…

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Abstract

This study tests the hypothesis of market integration between the securitised and the unsecuritised real estate market by examining the information contents of their respective ex‐post conditional volatility measures. The two markets are said to be integrated if the conditional volatility terms of one market do not contain incremental information for the ex‐post conditional volatility of another market. Our empirical results showed no evidence of the ex‐post returns of the direct real estate (PPI) market incorporating the market volatility of the securitized real estate asset. The ex‐post conditional volatility of the PPI market, which contains only information on the past shock and the past conditional volatility, is sufficient to statistically explain the variation in the log‐PPI price variations. However, there was significant evidence of incremental information flowing from conditional volatility of the unsecuritized property market to the securitized property market. Therefore, the securtized and unsecuritized real estate markets are integrated, but the integration is only uni‐directional. Some degree of segmentation is still observed as the information of property market (PPI) still has significant impacts on the returns of the property stock market.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 21 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 May 2016

Vipul Kumar Singh and Faisal Ahmed

The purpose of this paper is to econometrically investigate the level of financial co-integration of the least developed countries (LDCs) of Asia and Pacific region. In addition…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to econometrically investigate the level of financial co-integration of the least developed countries (LDCs) of Asia and Pacific region. In addition, the paper also tested the co-integration of LDCs with the world’s second largest economy “China.” For this, the paper employed the foreign exchange data sets of respective LDCs. It also aimed to assess the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between the foreign exchange rates of LDCs and China, and further, examined the past and current level of their co-relational dependence.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors created data sets namely LDCs of Asia and Pacific, LDCs of SAARC, LDCs of ASEAN, LDCs of Pacific, LDCs of SAARC and ASEAN, LDCs of ASEAN and Pacific, and LDCs of SAARC and Pacific. In addition, the authors tested the co-integration of these seven groups with China, and thus, making a total of 14 data sets. The analysis was carried out using the Johansen and Gregory-Hansen multivariate co-integration econometric techniques. To assess the DCC, multivariate DCC GARCH model was employed.

Findings

It was found that at the intra-regional level, exchange rates of LDCs of SAARC, ASEAN and Pacific were co-integrated and showed the existence of 1-3 co-integrating equations. At inter-regional level SAARC-ASEAN, ASEAN-Pacific and SAARC-Pacific were also co-integrated and showed 1-3 co-integrated equations. However, on the inclusion of China in the study, the degree of co-integration of exchange rate of China with LDCs of SAARC and ASEAN increased, while with Pacific, the result was mixed. Conditional correlation estimated of multivariate DCC GARCH model suggested that except for Afghanistan, there was an upward shift in the correlation dynamics of exchange rates of LDCs with China, post global financial crisis.

Practical implications

Asia and Pacific region constituted of 53 countries, of which 13 were LDCs. Enhanced financial integration among LDCs of Asia-Pacific region and also between LDCs and major economies of the region like China will strengthen economic and financial integration efforts in the region.

Originality/value

The present paper attempted a comparative assessment of the co-movements of the foreign exchange markets of LDCs, the countries which have remained largely neglected in academic discourses on financial integration.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

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Article
Publication date: 11 March 2005

Kang H. Park

The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent of financial integration occurring in East Asia. Increasing economic integration in East Asia over the last two decades has been…

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent of financial integration occurring in East Asia. Increasing economic integration in East Asia over the last two decades has been evidenced by consistent growth in intra‐regional trade and investment. Greater economic integration in the region, accompanied by financial deregulation and liberalization, has contributed to greater financial integration. This study confirms increasing degree of financial market integration in East Asia by comparing movements of monthly money market rates before and after the Asian financial crisis. Convergence of interest rates across the countries in East Asia is examined by analyzing deviations, correlation coefficients and multivariate co‐integration tests of interest rates.

Details

Multinational Business Review, vol. 13 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1525-383X

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Article
Publication date: 26 June 2009

Marie‐Claude Beaulieu, Marie‐Hélène Gagnon and Lynda Khalaf

The purpose of this paper is to examine financial integration across North American stock markets from January 1984 to December 2003.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine financial integration across North American stock markets from January 1984 to December 2003.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses an arbitrage pricing theory framework. The risk factors considered are the three Fama and French factors augmented with momentum for both countries as well as their international counterparts. Both the domestic and international four factor models in cross section and test for partial, mild, and strong financial integration are estimated. The domestic and international model are estimated on domestic portfolios and on a subset of Canadian cross listings matched with American stocks.

Findings

Results can be summarized as follows: first, results show stronger evidence of mild rather than partial or strong integration in both domestic portfolios and interlisted stocks. Second, interlisted stocks appear at first glance to be more integrated than the domestic portfolios, but this result can be attributed to the poor explanatory power of the models applied to interlisted stocks. Once the authors rule out the case where the model does not generate statistically important risk premiums for both countries, the evidence of integration is similar in both domestic and interlisted stocks. Third, the domestic and international models have similar explanatory power, although the domestic model performs better with the Canadian interlisted stocks are found.

Originality/value

The results suggest that, in an international context, a portfolio manager is better off using the four factor model as a benchmark in cross sections rather than the single market. Furthermore, if the agency problem described in Karolyi is ignored, Canadian interlisted stocks and Canadian domestic portfolios have the same diversification potential.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 August 2012

Anil Perera and J. Wickramanayake

The purpose of this paper is to examine financial market integration in major South Asian financial markets: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Also to identify the…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine financial market integration in major South Asian financial markets: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Also to identify the required policy interactions and structural changes vital for broader economic integration.

Design/methodology/approach

This research opted for an empirical study employing co‐integration and causality techniques using a sample of stock and bond market data for major South Asian countries.

Findings

Empirical results show that both stock and bond returns are co‐integrated, indicating common stochastic trends. Stock market integration appears to be much stronger compared to the less developed and data deficient bond markets.

Research limitations/implications

The study relies on widely cited empirical methodology. However, adopting alternative specifications and also allowing for time variant factors while examining inter‐linkages between stock and bond markets seem to be appropriate for robustness of results.

Practical implications

Increased integration would help in reducing arbitrage opportunities in these financial markets, having implications for market participants and promoting economic growth through financial deepening, in general. Since the degree of integration is dependent on policy and institutional infrastructure, ongoing efforts to develop financial sectors and reforms would need to be accelerated to further strengthen the degree of convergence between securities markets.

Originality/value

The paper fulfills an identified need to examine financial market integration in the SAARC region, using data for both stock and bond markets. This is the first study to use bond market data for SAARC countries and it also adds to the limited literature of bond market integration.

Details

South Asian Journal of Global Business Research, vol. 1 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2045-4457

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 November 2015

Mahmoud Qadan and Joseph Yagil

The recent economic crises have attracted attention to the issue of international equity co-movements and correlations. Using data from 1980 to 2010, the authors examine the…

Abstract

Purpose

The recent economic crises have attracted attention to the issue of international equity co-movements and correlations. Using data from 1980 to 2010, the authors examine the international co-movements of both real economic activity, as reflected in industrial production and the gross domestic product (GDP), and financial activity, as reflected in equity market returns. While classic symmetric co-integration tests do not reject the hypothesis of no co-integration, the authors find evidence of asymmetric co-integration in these three variables between the USA and the rest of the Group of Seven (G7) countries. The momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model captures the nature of the asymmetry most effectively and is the most applicable model for adjustment to long-term equilibrium. This model suggests that the path of adjustment to long-run equilibrium is somewhat different when the price differential is decreasing than when it is increasing. These findings imply that the benefits of asset diversification for investors with a long horizon might be limited in scope.

Design/methodology/approach

This work is based on the theory of integrated time series. The authors use symmetric and asymmetric co-integration tests to market indices, as well as to monthly industrial production statistics and quarterly data about the GDP. In line with the financial economic literature, the authors select the GDP as a proxy that reflects the real economy and share prices to mirror the financial sector of the economy. Because no monthly data exist about GDP, the authors use instead the industrial production. Both variables cover the period from January 1980 to June 2010.

Findings

The overall findings demonstrate that the USA and the rest of the G7 countries are not symmetrically co-integrated with respect to the GDP. Indeed, they are asymmetrically co-integrated. These findings may explain the additional important result that the majority of equity markets are also asymmetrically co-integrated with the USA.

Research limitations/implications

The co-movements of the equity markets and real economic activity imply that the benefits of asset diversification for investors with a long horizon might be limited in scope. In the short run, however, portfolio diversification can be more beneficial due to the short-term fluctuations that may derive from the asymmetric correction process.

Originality/value

Prior research on co-movements has focused mainly on studying the correlations among international equity markets by analyzing conditional correlations or using symmetric co-integration methods; the authors test the existence of a long-term relationship between economic variables with respect to the USA and the rest of the G7 countries using a threshold co-integration model.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 May 2023

Ghanshyam Pandey, Surbhi Bansal and Shruti Mohapatra

The purpose of this paper is to examine the market integration and direction of causality of wholesale and retail prices for the chickpea legume in major chickpea markets in India.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the market integration and direction of causality of wholesale and retail prices for the chickpea legume in major chickpea markets in India.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the authors employ the Johansen co-integration test, Granger causality test, vector autoregression (VAR), and vector error correction model (VECM) to examine the integration of markets. The authors use monthly wholesale and retail price data of the chickpea crop from select markets in India spanning January 2003–December 2020.

Findings

The results of this study strongly confirm the co-integration and interdependency of the selected chickpea markets in India. However, the speed of adjustment of prices in the wholesale market is weakest in Bikaner, followed by Daryapur and Narsinghpur; it is relatively moderate in Gulbarga. In contrast, the speed of adjustment is negative for Bhopal and Delhi, weak for Nasik, and moderate for retail market prices in Bangalore. The results of the causality test show that the Narsinghpur, Daryapur, and Gulbarga markets are the most influential, with bidirectional relations in the case of wholesale market prices. Meanwhile, the Bangalore market is the most connected and effective retail market among the selected retail markets. It has bidirectional price transmission with two other markets, i.e. Bhopal and Nasik.

Research limitations/implications

This paper calls for forthcoming studies to investigate the impact of external and internal factors, such as market infrastructure; government policy regarding self-reliant production; product physical characteristics; and rate of utilization indicating market integration. They should also focus on strengthening information technology for the regular flow of market information to help farmers increase their incomes.

Originality/value

Very few studies have explored market efficiency and direction of causality using both linear and nonlinear techniques for wholesale and retail prices of chickpea in India.

Details

Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-0839

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 May 2006

Plamen Patev, Nigokhos Kanaryan and Katerina Lyroudi

To investigate the Central and Eastern European (CEE) equity market co‐movements before, during and after major emerging market crises. To examine the impact of the crisis on the…

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Abstract

Purpose

To investigate the Central and Eastern European (CEE) equity market co‐movements before, during and after major emerging market crises. To examine the impact of the crisis on the gains of international portfolio diversification in CEE.

Design/methodology/approach

The study is based on the concept of co‐integration. The daily US dollar returns are analyzed for the period August 28, 1996 to August 2, 2001. The whole period is split into three sample periods. The first one is the pre‐crisis period from August 28, 1996 to May 30, 1997. The crisis period is from June 2, 1997 to January 31, 1999. The third period is the post‐crisis from February 1, 1999 to August 31, 2001.

Findings

Indicates no long‐run relationship between the US and the four Central European stock markets. Demonstrates a feedback effect and causality in one direction during and after the crisis period. Confirms a decrease of portfolio benefits in the crisis period and an increase of portfolio benefits in the post‐crisis period.

Research limitations/implications

It is based on econometrics tests that quantify market integration and measure opportunities for international portfolio diversification. Employment of asset pricing models is viewed as a future research.

Practical implications

A very useful source of information for investors in Central and Eastern Europe.

Originality/value

One of the first papers investigated the benefits from portfolio investments in Central and Eastern Europe stock markets during financial crises.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 32 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

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