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1 – 10 of 29The purpose of our study is to examine the inflation–growth nexus relationship for Swaziland between 1975 and 2016 with the intention of estimating an optimal level of inflation…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of our study is to examine the inflation–growth nexus relationship for Swaziland between 1975 and 2016 with the intention of estimating an optimal level of inflation, which maxims economic growth or minimizes growth losses.
Design/methodology/approach
We estimate on an endogenous monetary model of economic growth augmented with a credit technology using a smooth transition regression (STR) model, which allows us to estimate an optimal inflation rate characterized by smooth transition between different inflation regimes.
Findings
Our empirical results point to an inflation threshold estimate of 7.64 per cent at which economic growth gains are maximized or similarly growth losses are minimized. In particular, we find that above this threshold economic agents may be able to protect themselves from inflation through credit technology and a more urbanized population and yet such high inflation adversely affects the influence of exports on economic growth. This noteworthy since a majority of government revenues is from trade activity via the country's affiliation with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU).
Originality/value
The major contribution of this paper is that it becomes the first to draw directly from endogenous growth theory to estimate the inflation threshold for any African country, which will hopefully pave a way for similar studies on other African countries.
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Idris Abdullahi Abdulqadir and Soo Y. Chua
The purpose of this article is to investigate the asymmetric impact of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) on employees' wages via consumer prices in 15 major oil-exporting…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this article is to investigate the asymmetric impact of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) on employees' wages via consumer prices in 15 major oil-exporting countries from sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1996-2017 using the panel threshold regression model.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology used in this article was built on non-linear panel threshold regression models developed by Hansen (1996, 1999) threshold regression. The authors first tested for the existence of threshold-effect in ERPT and wage nexus using 1,000 bootstrap replications and 400 grid searches to obtain an optimal threshold. We also estimated that asymmetric ERPT on employees' wages reacts differently when the inflation-threshold exceeds beyond a 15.12% threshold level.
Findings
Our findings showed that asymmetric ERPT is incomplete and indicates that an increase by one standard deviation in real exchange rate causes a decline in employees' wages by 2.69%.
Research limitations/implications
The policy implications of our results are drawn from the significant threshold estimates. However, a significant threshold value of 15.12 is an inflation-threshold estimates that split our 330 observations into the lower (upper) regimes. Further, an inflation rate beyond the threshold value is likely to have an asymmetric ERPT on employees' wages in the 15 major oil-exporting sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries.
Practical implications
The practical implication of the study is when ERPT exceeds the threshold, the effect of real exchange rate variations is passed on to employees' wages. It is widely believed that labor productivity increase with increased minimum wages. Nevertheless, there is contention as regards the effects on employment and poverty. As rising goods prices make the minimum wage increased homogeneous of degree zero.
Social implications
Considerable increased ERPT on imported goods reduces employees' wages purchasing ability from import-dependent countries through import prices. Once it has documented, this also reduces welfare via deteriorations of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) and marginal propensity to savings (MPS).
Originality/value
This article integrates labor purchasing power into the analysis of ERPT using non-linear dynamic panel heterogeneous threshold regression. It extends the Hansen (1996, 1999) dynamic panel threshold models to exchange rate pass-through in SSA economies.
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Muzffar Hussain Dar and Md Zulquar Nain
This study aims to examine the effect of economic growth and the moderating impact of inflation on financial development (FD) for six South Asian Association of Regional Countries…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the effect of economic growth and the moderating impact of inflation on financial development (FD) for six South Asian Association of Regional Countries (SAARC)es during the period of 1990–2020. Besides, the inflation threshold level and FD index are also estimated.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses several cross-sectional dependency tests, pooled mean group and panel fully modified least squares method. This study also makes use of principle component analysis in index construction.
Findings
The results indicate that economic growth positively impacts regions’ FD. The mediating term has a negative impact on FD when the inflation rate rises. The finding indicates after the 3.5% threshold limit, inflation changes its positive effect on FD. The constructed index is a superior measurement of FD because it controls measurement sensitivity and offers significant results.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical study in the context of SAARC to analyse the interaction effect of inflation on the growth–finance relationship. This study’s novelty is further ensured by estimating the threshold level of inflation and construction index.
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Idris Abdullahi Abdulqadir, Soo Y. Chua and Saidatulakmal Mohd
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal inflation targets for an appropriate exchange rate policy in 15 major oil exporting countries in Sub-Saharan African (SSA).
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal inflation targets for an appropriate exchange rate policy in 15 major oil exporting countries in Sub-Saharan African (SSA).
Design/methodology/approach
Dynamic heterogeneous panel threshold techniques are used via threshold-effect test and threshold regression. This procedure is achieved through a grid search and bootstrapping replications method to stimulate the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test of the null hypothesis on no-threshold as against the alternative hypothesis. The p-values validate the threshold estimates.
Findings
Findings revealed that the optimal inflation target has a turning point and its impact on the real exchange rate is up to a threshold level of 14.47 per cent. Furthermore, the inflation rate above the threshold level overwhelmingly revealed its effect on real exchange regimes.
Research limitations/implications
It would have been a good idea to investigate optimal inflation targets for all African countries but due to inadequate data the selection criteria was narrowed to oil-exporting countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Practical implications
Inflation targeting beyond the threshold level would have serious implications on the monetary policy.
Originality/value
To the best of the knowledge, this is the first study to look at optimal inflation targets for 15 major oil exporting countries in general and SSA countries in particular. The findings provide a critical analysis of an inflation regime for a typical oil-producing country that oil exports being their source of revenue.
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– This paper aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate depreciation and money growth to the consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Indonesia.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate depreciation and money growth to the consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Indonesia.
Design/methodology/approach
Using threshold model applied to Phillips curve equation.
Findings
Using monthly data from 1980:1 to 2008:12, the econometric evidence shows that there are indeed threshold effects of money growth on inflation, but no threshold effect of exchange rate depreciation on inflation. Even though the threshold value for exchange rate depreciation is found at 8.4 percent, the F-test suggests that there is no significant difference between the coefficient below and that above the threshold value. While two threshold values are found for money growth, i.e. 7.1 and 9.8 percent, and they are statistically different. The impact on inflation is high when money grows by up to 7.1 percent, it is moderate when money grows by 7.1-9.8 percent, and it is low when money grows by above 9.8 percent.
Research limitations/implications
This research is using methodology proposed by Hansen which the threshold is based on the minimum SSR. The value of SSR will differ from one model to one model. For example, model using quarterly data will give the different result from that using monthly or yearly data. Also, when the author uses the new data, the result could be different.
Practical implications
Even though inflation targeting framework has been adopted by Bank Indonesia (BI) since 2005, BI should not disregard the monetary aggregate variable, especially M1. This is because the growth of money is still matter to influence inflation in the short run. The impact on inflation is found to be larger than the impact of exchange rate depreciation when it is below a certain threshold value.
Originality/value
This is the first paper that evaluates the threshold effect of exchange rate and money growth in emerging country, especially in Indonesia.
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate asymmetric cointegration and causality effects between financial development and economic growth for South African data spanning over…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate asymmetric cointegration and causality effects between financial development and economic growth for South African data spanning over the period of 1992-2013.
Design/methodology/approach
This study makes the use of the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) approach which allows for threshold error-correction (TEC) modeling and Granger causality analysis between the variables. In carrying out an empirical analysis, the author uses six measures of the financial development variables against gross domestic per capita, that is, three measures which proxy banking activity and another three proxies for stock market development.
Findings
The empirical results generally indicate an abrupt asymmetric cointegration relationship between banking activity and economic growth, on the one hand, and a smooth cointegration relationship between stock market activity and economic growth, on the other hand. Moreover, causality analysis generally reveals that while banking activity tends to Granger cause economic growth, stock market activity is, however, caused by economic growth increase.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the literature by examining asymmetries in the cointegration and causality relations by using both banking and stock market proxies against economic growth for the South African economy.
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Yogeeswari Subramaniam and Tajul Ariffin Masron
Using an innovative threshold estimation technique, this paper provides new evidence on the relationship between finance and inflation with distinct levels of finance.
Abstract
Purpose
Using an innovative threshold estimation technique, this paper provides new evidence on the relationship between finance and inflation with distinct levels of finance.
Design/methodology/approach
The sample consisted of 10 high inflation countries using time series data for the period of 1992–2020. These 10 countries recorded the world's highest inflation rates in 2017.
Findings
The findings demonstrate that there is a threshold effect on the finance–inflation relationship. Whilst the effects of finance are consistently positive for below and above the threshold models, financial depth above the threshold tends to aggravate the inflation level.
Practical implications
These results disclose that financial depth could be the cause of high inflation in the top 10 countries and thus, is not necessarily welcome as too rapid of a price increase may in turn reverse the prospect of economic growth. Searching and strategizing for the optimal level of financing is crucial in facilitating price stability and economic growth.
Originality/value
The authors believe that the effect of financial depth on inflation is characterised by being desirable to certain extent and undesirable if over-financing is beyond the optimum level. Therefore, in this study, the authors have introduced the threshold modelling as the potential strategy to connect financial depth and inflation.
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W. Adrián Risso and Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the long‐run relationships and threshold effects between inflation and economic growth in Mexico.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the long‐run relationships and threshold effects between inflation and economic growth in Mexico.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper shows the existence of such relationship in a cointegrated vector on economic growth (log of real gross domestic product (GDP)) and inflation rate finding a corresponding elasticity significantly negative. Moreover, the causal relationship between these two series is studied using a more robust Granger causality test, without finding any directional causality between them.
Findings
The estimated threshold model suggests 9 percent as the threshold level (i.e. structural break point) of inflation above which inflation significantly slows the Mexican economic growth.
Research limitations/implications
This paper uses the cointegration technique, and finds a significant and negative long‐run relationship between inflation and economic growth for the Mexican economy. In addition, it is found that inflation is weakly exogenous. In the period 1970‐2007 real GDP was elastic with respect to inflation, and therefore, considering the estimated coefficient, an increase of 1 percent on inflation produces a decrease of 1.5 percent on real GDP. Since, for most of the period under consideration Mexico experienced inflation rates higher than 10 percent, this result is consistent with most of the research suggesting that high levels of inflation produce a negative effect on economic growth.
Practical implications
The analysis could be useful for policymakers in providing some clue in setting an optimal inflation target. For instance, the Mexican Central Bank could apply an expansionary monetary policy for supporting economic growth until the inflation rate does not exceed the threshold level. In fact, the threshold analysis suggests that if the inflation rate exceeds 9 percent, then Mexico's current favorable economic performance might be jeopardized.
Originality/value
Specifically, this paper focuses on two questions: is there any long‐run relationship between economic growth and inflation in Mexico? Is there a statistically significant threshold level of inflation above which inflation affects growth differently than at lower inflation rates in Mexico? Motivated by these questions, this present paper first examines cointegration techniques and then, threshold estimations.
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Since the reform and opening‐up policy, the long‐term problem of loans became more and more serious when China's economy maintained rapid growth. The purpose of this paper is to…
Abstract
Purpose
Since the reform and opening‐up policy, the long‐term problem of loans became more and more serious when China's economy maintained rapid growth. The purpose of this paper is to explore the profound causes of the medium‐ and long‐term problem of loans and the relationship between it and economic growth.
Design/methodology/approach
Using panel data for 28 provinces and cities of China during 1994‐2005, this paper investigates the determinants on the maturity of bank credit using threshold panel data of Hansen. In addition, using dynamics panel data, this paper investigates the effects of the maturity structure of bank credit on economic growth.
Findings
The drop of bank industry concentration tends to increase the supply of long‐term loans. The raise of economic growth and the increase of industrialization degree promote the demand of long‐term loans, significantly. Furthermore, the threshold effects of inflation exist. When the initial inflation is lower than 3.9 percent, the raise of inflation can increase the supply of long‐term loans. When the initial inflation is higher than 3.9 percent, the raise of inflation can decrease the supply of long‐term loans. The increase in the supply of long‐term loans can promote the economic growth.
Originality/value
The paper has two innovations: first, when studying the determinants on the maturity of bank credit, using the threshold panel approach takes account of the nonlinear adjustment of inflation; second, including the maturity of bank credit into the realm of financial development studies the relationship between this and economic growth.
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A recent case in the High Court has drawn attention to some legislation which, whilst it has been in force for a very long time, is rarely invoked in the courts today: the Truck…
Abstract
A recent case in the High Court has drawn attention to some legislation which, whilst it has been in force for a very long time, is rarely invoked in the courts today: the Truck Acts, particularly that of 1831. The author examines some facets of this area of the law but stresses that this article is not advisory but informative and, if problems arise in practice, legal advice should be sought.