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1 – 10 of over 1000Petr Rozmahel and Marek Litzman
This chapter elaborates on the main factors of the adverse macroeconomic development in Czechia and Europe. Currently, i.e. from 2022, Czechia mainly suffers from double-digit…
Abstract
This chapter elaborates on the main factors of the adverse macroeconomic development in Czechia and Europe. Currently, i.e. from 2022, Czechia mainly suffers from double-digit galloping inflation and GDP stagnation. The aim of this chapter is to identify and describe the influence of the main factors from the present and the more distant past on current inflation and approaching stagflation in Czechia. This chapter analyzes an unfavourable mix of demand and supply factors that leave the new banking board of the CNB facing a dilemma, that is, whether to pursue a disinflationary policy of increasing interest rates and thus push the Czech economy closer into recession or to rely on demand-driven economic growth, which will keep unemployment at a low level, but at the same time contribute to inflationary pressures. The new governor of the CNB completely changed the strategy of his predecessor and, despite strong criticism, did not raise interest rates even once. Based on the analysis of inflationary factors, this chapter tries to explain the motives for the Central Bank's new strategy in the fight against inflation, which is the systematic appreciation of the Czech koruna.
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Emna Trabelsi and Asma Ben Khaled
The implementation of monetary policy by the central bank is an ongoing topic of discussion. This paper aims to explore monetary policy transmission shocks in times of uncertainty…
Abstract
Purpose
The implementation of monetary policy by the central bank is an ongoing topic of discussion. This paper aims to explore monetary policy transmission shocks in times of uncertainty using the new World uncertainty index (WUI). The authors investigate the impact of crises, wars and pandemic shocks on selected macroeconomic variables.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use unit root tests, structural vector autoregressive model and the Granger causality test according to Toda–Yamamoto with quarterly data over 1999–2022.
Findings
The results of this study show that in the short run, there is a unidirectional relationship between the money market rate and WUI, while the relationship between the latter and the money supply (M2) is bidirectional. The short-term effect runs from WUI to inflation. In the long run, the variance decomposition shows that global uncertainty explains around 12% of inflation pressures. The uncertainty caused by special events in the world creates positive shocks on inflation in Tunisia, which decreases the ability of the central bank to control inflation.
Research limitations/implications
The results have implications over necessary and urgent actions to be implemented for a progressive economic recovery but point to a necessary transition to an inflation-targeting regime.
Originality/value
Examining monetary policy under uncertainty is a recent phenomenon. The authors purposely use a novel WUI by Ahir et al. (2022) that is unexploited in literature.
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Hai Le and Phuong Nguyen
This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.
Design/methodology/approach
This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.
Findings
The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.
Originality/value
This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.
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Inflation and federal monetary efforts to control it with interest rate hikes have very real and overwhelmingly negative consequences on US local governments following the onset…
Abstract
Purpose
Inflation and federal monetary efforts to control it with interest rate hikes have very real and overwhelmingly negative consequences on US local governments following the onset of COVID-19. This study explores the post-pandemic inflationary environment of US local governments; examines the impacts of inflation and high interest rates on local government revenue, operating costs, capital costs, and debt service; reviews local government inflation management strategies, including the use of intergovernmental revenue; and assesses ongoing threats to local government financial health and financial resilience.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses trend and literature analysis to comment on current issues local governments face.
Findings
The study finds that the growth of property values and resulting stability of property tax revenue has been important to local government revenues; that local governments bear very real burdens as operating and capital costs increase; and that the combination of high inflation and interest rates affects local government debt issuance by negatively affecting credit quality and interest costs, leading to municipal market contraction. Local governments have benefitted tremendously from intergovernmental revenue, but would be ill-advised to rely on it.
Practical implications
Vulnerabilities owing from revenue mismatch with the economy; inadequate affordable housing, inequality, and social issues; a changing workforce and tight labor market; climate change; and federal fiscal contraction—all of which are exacerbated by high inflation and interest rates—require local governments to act strategically, boldly and collaboratively to achieve fiscal health and financial resilience, and to realize positive returns of investments in people and capital.
Originality/value
This work is unique in addressing the post-pandemic impact of inflation and interest rates on local governments.
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Maryam Hemmati, Saleh S. Tabrizy and Yashar Tarverdi
To study the key determinants of chronically high inflation in Iran.
Abstract
Purpose
To study the key determinants of chronically high inflation in Iran.
Design/methodology/approach
Relying on annual data from 1978 to 2019, the authors employ an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Error Correction Model (ECM) to study the inflationary effects of monetary and fiscal policies as well as exchange rate swings and sanctions intensification.
Findings
The authors find that increase in money supply, depreciation of nominal exchange rate, increase in fiscal deficit and intensification of sanctions are among the key drivers of inflation in Iran. Their impact is profound in the long run, but in the short run only money supply and currency depreciation are significant. Also, when exploring the inflation in different components of Consumer Price Index (CPI), we find robust long- and short-run effects from money supply and exchange rate, while the effects of fiscal deficit and sanctions vary across different components.
Originality/value
The authors contribute to the literature by setting apart the long-vs short-run effects of key variables on inflation in Iran. The authors also employ improved measures of fiscal deficit and sanctions that are shown to be of significance in the long run. Lastly, the authors go beyond the aggregate index and examine the variations in different CPI components.
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Helder Ferreira de Mendonça and Cristiane Nascimento de Lima
This paper aims to contribute to the analysis concerning how inflation forecasts from different economic agents (professional forecasters and consumers) lead to varying levels of…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to contribute to the analysis concerning how inflation forecasts from different economic agents (professional forecasters and consumers) lead to varying levels of central bank credibility and how it affects the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on the Brazilian economy data from June 2007 to May 2022, the authors provide evidence that is useful for search mechanisms that improve the conduct of monetary policy through the management of inflation expectations. The authors perform several ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments regressions inspired by the Taylor rule principle. In brief, the benchmark model considers that the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations respond to departures of inflation expectations to the target (a proxy for central bank credibility) and the level of economic activity.
Findings
The main result of the analysis is that inflation expectations from professional forecasters and consumers imply different perceptions of central bank credibility that affect the monetary policy interest rate and expectations for horizons until one year ahead.
Originality/value
The novelty that the authors bring from the analysis is that the authors calculate central bank credibility by taking into account the “public beliefs” of different economic agents. Furthermore, the authors analyze the effect of central bank credibility from professional forecasters and consumers on the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations.
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Richard Amoatey, Richard K. Ayisi and Eric Osei-Assibey
The purpose of this study is twofold. First, to estimate an optimal inflation rate for Ghana and second, to investigate factors that account for the differences between observed…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is twofold. First, to estimate an optimal inflation rate for Ghana and second, to investigate factors that account for the differences between observed and target inflation.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper explored the questions within two econometric frameworks, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Threshold Regression Models using data spanning the period 1965–2019.
Findings
The study estimated a range of 5–7% optimal inflation for Ghana. While this confirms the single-digit inflation targeting by the Bank of Ghana, the range is lower than the central bank's band of 6–10%. The combined behaviours of the central bank, banks and external outlook influence inflation target misses.
Practical implications
The study urges the central bank to continue pursuing its single-digit inflation targeting. However, it implies that there is still room for the Bank to further lower the current inflation band to achieve an optimal outcome on growth and welfare. Again, the Bank should commit to increased transparency and accountability to enhance its credibility in attaining the targeted inflation.
Originality/value
The study is one of the first attempts in Africa in Ghana to estimate an optimal inflation target and investigate the underlying factors for deviation from the targets.
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Vojtěch Koňařík, Zuzana Kučerová and Daniel Pakši
Inflation expectations are an important part of the transmission mechanism of the inflation targeting regime. As such, central bankers must study the inflation expectations of…
Abstract
Inflation expectations are an important part of the transmission mechanism of the inflation targeting regime. As such, central bankers must study the inflation expectations of economic agents to anchor them close to the level of the inflation target. However, economic agents are affected by the past and current macroeconomic situation when they form their expectations concerning future inflation. Using survey data on inflation expectations in Czechia, we investigate the macroeconomic determinants of Czech analysts' and managers' inflation expectations. We find that both actual and past inflation have a substantial impact on inflation expectations of the agents surveyed. We also identify backward-looking behaviour among these agents: persistence in inflation expectations of up to two quarters was detected. Moreover, financial analysts formed inflation expectations more in line with economic theory, while company managers evinced expectations similar to those of consumers.
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Gabriel Caldas Montes and Raime Rolando Rodríguez Díaz
Business confidence is crucial to firm decisions, but it is deeply related to professional forecasters' expectations. Since Brazil is an important inflation targeting country…
Abstract
Purpose
Business confidence is crucial to firm decisions, but it is deeply related to professional forecasters' expectations. Since Brazil is an important inflation targeting country, this paper investigates whether monetary policy credibility and disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations relate to business confidence in Brazil. The study considers the aggregate business confidence index and the business confidence indexes for 11 industrial sectors in Brazil.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors run ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments regressions to assess the direct effects of disagreements in expectation and monetary policy credibility on business confidence. The authors also make use of Wald test of parameter equality to observe whether there are “offsetting effects” of monetary credibility in mitigating the effects of both disagreements in expectations on business confidence. Besides, the authors run quantile regressions to analyze the effect of the main explanatory variables of interest on business confidence in contexts where business confidence is low (pessimistic) or high (optimistic).
Findings
Disagreements in inflation expectations reduce business confidence, monetary policy credibility improves business confidence and credibility mitigates the adverse effects of disagreements in expectations on business confidence. The sectors most sensitive to monetary policy credibility are Rubber, Motor Vehicles, Metallurgy, Metal Products and Cellulose. The findings also suggest the effect of disagreement in inflation expectations on business confidence decreases as confidence increases, and the effect of monetary policy credibility on business confidence increases as entrepreneurs are more optimistic.
Originality/value
While there is evidence that monetary policy credibility is beneficial to the economy, there are no studies on the effects of disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations on business confidence (at the aggregate and sectoral levels). Besides, there are no studies that have investigated whether monetary policy credibility can mitigate the effects of disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations on business confidence (at the aggregate and sectoral levels). Therefore, there are gaps to be filled in the literature addressing business confidence, monetary policy credibility and disagreements in expectations. These issues are particularly important to inflation targeting developing countries.
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Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher and Naser Yenus Nuru
This paper aims to examine the asymmetric effects of exchange rate shocks on inflation for a small open economy, namely South Africa, over the period 1970Q1–2020Q1.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the asymmetric effects of exchange rate shocks on inflation for a small open economy, namely South Africa, over the period 1970Q1–2020Q1.
Design/methodology/approach
A threshold vector autoregressive model that allows parameters to switch according to whether a threshold variable crosses an estimated threshold is employed to address the objective of this paper. The threshold value is determined endogenously using the Hansen (1996) test. Generalized impulse responses introduced by Koop et al. (1996) are used to study the effects of exchange rate shocks on inflation depending on their size, sign and timing to the inflation cycle. The authors also employed a Cholesky decomposition identification scheme to identify exchange rate shocks in the non-linear model.
Findings
The results show that there is a non-linearity effect of the exchange rate shock on inflation. In particular, the effects of 1 or 2 standard deviations of positive (appreciation) or negative (depreciation) exchange rate shock on inflation are small in the long run but a bit larger in the high inflation regime than the low inflation regime.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the literature on the non-linear effects of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation for Sub-Saharan African economies in general and the South African economy in particular by incorporating the size and timing of the exchange rate shocks to the inflation cycle.
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