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A hedge-fund strategist had two decisions to make. First, what was the path of core euro zone long-term interest rates likely to be over the next year? Was the dramatic decline in German long rates over the past few years an aberration that would soon be reversed, or was it part of the “new normal” that would persist for some time? Second, how would periphery long rates evolve relative to core rates? That is—the spread between long rates in the likes of Greece, Spain, and Ireland and those in Germany—how would they evolve over the next year? Was the dramatic divergence in euro zone long rates likely to persist, or would the coming year see a continuation of the modest reconvergence that has occurred since mid–2012? He knew many factors influenced long-term interest rates; he would have to use his entire toolkit to address this issue. The evidence was in no way clear-cut. Some factors pointed toward lower German rates, some toward higher, some toward a widening of euro zone spreads (even a dissolution of the euro zone as we know it?), and some toward reconvergence.

A privately held U.S. plumbing parts manufacturer is negotiating the purchase of a Brazilian plumbing manufacturer specializing in water conservation. The case provides sufficient information to value this cross-border acquisition and includes a brief summary of valuation techniques in this context. A particularly rich discussion arises from two points: A forecast of exchange rates from a forecasting company differs from forecasts based on inflation, and two methods are suggested for dealing with country risk (sovereign spread and scenario analysis). A teaching note and instructor and student spreadsheets are available to accompany this case.

On completion of the case study, students will understand the following learning objectives: the characteristics of quantitative easing (QE) and when it may be appropriate to implement QE; how QE differs from a conventional bond purchasing programme; the impact of direct financing of the fiscus by the central bank on its independence; how the macro-economic and political environments affect and influence national economic policy; the difference between traditional and unconventional monetary policies and potential implications for an economy like South Africa. The learnings from this case study can be used in other global economic environments, particularly in emerging markets. This case study provides valuable insights into decision-making, institutional independence, policy coordination, deficit financing, causes and consequences of price inflation, risks relating to monetary instability and the correct application of monetary policy.

After the announcement of the COVID-19-related lockdown in March 2020 and the subsequent slow-down of economic activity in South Africa, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) had to consider appropriate macro-economic tools to ensure both price and financial stability in South Africa. The macro-economic policy tools had to be considered in light of the South African economic context, which included acknowledgement of South Africa’s debt crisis and slow economic growth. The central bank responded by introducing the following measures: reducing interest rates to a record low of 3.5% to give consumers financial relief and to promote spending in the economy; purchasing government bonds in the secondary markets to stabilise financial markets; facilitating the loan guarantee scheme that was aimed at providing financial relief to small- and medium-sized enterprises; relaxing the capital and liquidity adequacy requirements that commercial banks are required to meet; and ensuring availability of liquidity to banks through facilities such as the weekly repo auctions. However, despite introducing these interventions, the SARB faced calls from politicians, analysts and academics to do more. Various commentators argued that the SARB could introduce QE and directly finance government spending by purchasing government bonds. Some commentators argued that the reluctance of the SARB to pursue these suggestions was a result of the close alignment and relationship between the SARB and National Treasury. The dilemma faced by Governor Lesetja Kganyago of the SARB was threefold, namely, whether it was appropriate for the central bank to pursue the initiatives and, if so, whether the bank could pursue them without compromising its independence, and if the introduction of those initiatives would not adversely affect the ability of the central bank to fulfil its mandate of price stability and financial stability. In this regard, the governor and his executive team were required to consider the long-term implications of introducing the initiatives on consumer price inflation, independence of the SARB and the appropriate use of monetary policy tools to fulfil the central bank’s mandate. But the question was: What policies should the governor favour?

This case study is based on various macro-economic theories. Therefore, it would be useful to teach this case study in macro-economic courses in the following programmes: master’s in business administration, bachelor of commerce, bachelor of economic sciences and business science studies, as well as on executive education programmes, which consider macro-economic policy. In general, students who undertake economics, business and general management, finance, legal, commerce and banking studies could learn from this case study.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 3: Entrepreneurship.

After completing this case, students should be able to: identify and compute relevant cash flows in relation to a real estate project and compute the net present value (NPV). Determine the target return or cost of capital (by looking at historical economic indicators). Design or formulate a sensitivity analysis to determine the drivers of the project value. Evaluate real estate and other investments taking qualitative and quantitative factors into consideration. Demonstrate the computation of a break-even rate to determine the minimum or maximum revenue or cost required for a project to be viable.

This case study is about the Golden Beak Securities Pension Fund that wanted to invest in a Hostel Project in one of the universities in Ghana. Most universities in Ghana faced an acute shortage of on-campus accommodation. Also, the Government of Ghana, in 2017, implemented a programme to make Senior High School in Ghana free. This was expected to increase the number of students who will enter the existing universities. The project was therefore seen as strategic, as it would help ease the pressure of on-campus accommodation while providing diversification for the pension fund. As part of the investment committee’s (IC) quest to improve the skill set available to it, especially in relation to real estate investments, Esi Abebrese was appointed as one of the members of the IC of GSB. Her main task was to collect information on key macroeconomic variables, as well as granular information on project costs and revenues and conduct investment appraisal. Esi was scheduled to make a presentation to the IC on the 15th of October 2019 following which the Committee will debate and make a decision. The project had an estimated cost of GH¢52m with a total number of 3,424 student beds and ancillary facilities. Undertaking the project required moving funds from investments in money market securities with one of the banks in Ghana. The investments in the money market securities were currently yielding about 16% a year. The determination of the cost of capital was critical and Esi and Nana eventually settled on a long-term weighted average cost of capital of 14%. This was after considering the trend of inflation, monetary policy rates, treasury rates, stock market returns and a report on returns on commercial real estate properties in Ghana. An exit capitalisation rate of 20% was also estimated for the purposes of determining the value of the property at the end of the investment horizon. Esi also obtained estimates of cost and revenue for the project and proceeded to carry out a feasibility analysis on the project. This consisted of an NPV analysis and sensitivity analysis on various factors to determine the drivers of the project value. The IC had to take several factors (both quantitative and qualitative) into consideration before making a decision. Esi believed that these factors included the diversification of the fund’s assets, the return on investment, potential oversupply of hostel accommodation, the social responsibility of providing student accommodation and the impact of any prolonged shutdown of the university.

Masters/advanced undergraduate.

Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

CSS 1: Accounting and Finance.

This case study is developed from secondary sources. Two types of data were used to develop this case. The statistical data are gathered from sources such as Yahoo! Finance, Trading Economics, Investing.com and The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Reports on market developments are gathered from major news outlets such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal and Reuters.

The year 2021 was a volatile year for the Turkish economy: it ended the year with 36% annual inflation, 44% currency devaluation, shortages of basic goods, street protests, etc. How does the Turkish currency crisis in 2021 play out in various financial markets such as the foreign exchange, bond, stock and cryptocurrency markets? This case study introduces students to Turkey’s economic crisis in 2021 and how the Turkish lira’s depreciation, home inflation and central bank policies interact to affect its various financial markets. In the bond market, a depreciated lira heightened the credit risk of Turkey’s bond issuers and effectively crippled the country’s bond market. In contrast, Turkey’s stock and cryptocurrency markets experienced a rally as Turks put their money into equities and cryptocurrencies to hedge against inflation. In international trade, the lira’s fall and the supply chain disruptions in Asia benefited Turkish exporters tremendously. In contrast, Turkish importers suffered. In the Turkish society, the impact of the currency and inflation crisis fell the hardest on ordinary folks, who saw the values of their wages and pension benefits erode. In times of hardship, socially responsible citizens helped the poor by anonymously paying for others’ unpaid bills.

Given the multicomplexity of a currency crisis, this case would be valuable for finance/economics students to understand how a country’s currency crisis and its central bank policies interact to impact its various financial markets. This case is appropriate for courses in Markets and Institutions with a global or cultural learning objective.

1. Describe how the Turkish lira’s depreciation affected its various financial markets, such as foreign exchange, bond, stock and cryptocurrency markets.2. Understand the cultural perspective on usury, how it exists in modern-day finance, and its’ role in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s economic policy.3. Compare and contrast Turkey’s export and import industries and how they are being affected by the lira’s depreciation.4. Evaluate the risk exposure of foreign investors who participate in Turkey’s stock market given a depreciating lira.5. Evaluate the creditworthiness of Turkish corporations who issued dollar- or euro-denominated bonds as well as issuers of lira-denominated bonds given a depreciating lira.6. Understand the social impacts of a currency crisis and the charitable acts of socially responsible citizens.

The case has been used in a first-year required course called Global Economies and Markets in a module on monetary policy. On October 24, 2005, President Bush nominated Ben S. Bernanke to be chairman of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve System for a term of four years along with a 14-year term on the board of governors. With the U.S. Senate confirmation widely anticipated, Bernanke was expected to take over stewardship of the U.S. monetary policy from Chairman Alan Greenspan when he retired in January 2006. While the U.S. economy was in good shape at the end of 2005, Bernanke had to prepare to deal with two challenges when charting a course for managing U.S. monetary policy. First, the sharp rise in energy prices that began in 2002 had the potential to bring back the specter of inflation and dampen desired consumer and business spending. Second, the housing boom could turn into a housing bust, throwing the mortgage industry into turmoil and weakening consumer business confidence. There was also the possibility that the housing bust could affect broader financial markets. Bernanke had to consider his options for dealing with contingencies in the not-so-distant future.

The case presents a financing dilemma at a fast growing, Brazilian construction company. The growing demand for residential and commercial real estate in Brazil, coupled with the capital intensive nature of the industry generates the need for a considerable external financing. The students are invited to take the perspective of the financial manager and evaluate three financing alternatives – an issue of debentures, a seasoned equity offering, and a capital-raising ADR offering. In their evaluation and final recommendation students need to consider the implications of each of the financing alternatives on firm value, equity risk, cost of capital, financial leverage, issuance costs, and ownership structure. The case also presents a valuable opportunity to discuss the interdependence between the institutional development of an economy and the development of its capital markets.

The case highlights the ambitious growth strategy of Suzlon, an Indian company specializing in non-conventional (wind) energy. In 2007, Suzlon announced the acquisition of REpower of Germany, one of the top wind power companies in the world. It issued zero coupon and coupon bearing foreign currency (US dollar) convertible bonds (FCCB) amounting to $760 million to finance the acquisition. These bonds were listed in Singapore. Due to deteriorating business conditions the company experienced a sharp decline in profitability and stock price resulting in a debt overhang. At the same time, the Indian rupee depreciated from INR44 to INR55 leading to losses on largely unhedged, foreign currency coupon payments. The company had to restructure its capital structure to escape bankruptcy. Since FCCB holders did not agree to restructure the terms of the instrument, the company had to turn to senior lenders to restructure debt. Eventually Suzlon had to sell-off REpower to reduce leverage.

The case is based on interviews of market intermediaries and published information. The information relating to the restructuring has been taken from the information statement filed with the Securities Exchange Board of India and the Stock Exchanges. The timeline of events were constructed from the information available in company press releases. Financial statements and other details are from the documents filed with the regulators and supplemented with the information available in Prowess database. The stock price and stock market index data are from the websites of Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange of India. Exchange rates, inflation and interest rates have been taken from Bloomberg and the Reserve Bank of India website. Valuation inputs like multiples are from Prowess database and security analyst reports. Sources of information are documented appropriately in the case and instructor’s manual. Although we interviewed the investment bankers involved in the restructuring we have not included any private information in the case to preserve confidentiality.

This case can be used in a corporate finance course or in a module on debt restructuring in a corporate restructuring course or in the financing module in an advanced corporate finance course or in an International Finance course. It can also be used to teach an integrated approach to valuation and financing in a valuation course.

The case highlights the rationale for issuing FX convertible debt, parity conditions in international finance and the use of alternate valuation models.

In January 1996, an investment manager of a hedge fund is considering purchasing an equity interest in a start-up biotechnology firm, Rocky Mountain Advanced Genome (RMAG). The asking price is $46 million for a 90% equity interest. Although managers of the firm are optimistic about its future performance, the investment manager is more conservative in her expectations. She asks an analyst to fashion a counterproposal for RMAG's management. The tasks for the student are to apply the concept of terminal value, interpret completed analyses and data, and derive implications of different terminal value assumptions in an effort to recommend a counterproposal. Little computation is required of the student. The main objective of the case is to survey many conceptual and practical challenges associated with estimating a firm's terminal value. Issues addressed include the concept of terminal value; the materiality of the terminal-value assumption; the varieties of terminal-value estimators and their strengths and weaknesses; taxation of terminal values; when to assume liquidation versus going-concern terminal values; choosing a forecast horizon at which to estimate a terminal value; the constant growth valuation model, its derivation, limiting assumptions of constant growth to infinity, and WACC > g; use of the Fisher Formula as a foundation for estimating growth rate to infinity; and using a variety of estimates to “triangulate” in on a terminal value.

In August 2005, an investment manager of a hedge fund is considering purchasing an equity interest in a start-up biotechnology firm, Arcadian Microarray Technologies, Inc. The asking price is $40 million for a 60 percent equity interest. Managers of the firm are optimistic about the firm's future performance; the investment manager is more conservative in his expectations. He calls on the help of an analyst with her firm to fashion a counterproposal to Arcadian's management. The tasks for the student are to apply the concept of terminal value, interpret completed analyses and data, and derive implications of different terminal-value assumptions in an effort to recommend a counterproposal. Very little numerical figure-work is required of the student.