Search results

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the interest rate (IR) sensitivity of output and prices in developing economies with different levels of financial inclusion (FI) for the period 2007Q1–2017Q4.

By using the PCA method to construct an FI index for each country, the author divides the sample into two groups (high and low FI levels). Then, with panel vector autoregressions on per group estimated to assess the strength of the impulse response of output and prices to IR shock.

The findings show that the impact of an IR shock on output and inflation is greater in economies with a higher degree of FI.

The finding indicates the link between FI and the effectiveness of IRs as a monetary policy tool, thereby helping Central banks to have a clearer goal of FI to implement their monetary policy.

This study emphasizes the important role of FI in the economy. From there, an FI solution is integrated into the construction and calculation of its impact on monetary policy, improving the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, contributing to price stability and sustainable growth.

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.

Economic literature highlights both positive and negative impact of FDI on economic growth. The purpose of this study is to confirm the relationship between various economic factors and FDI equity inflows and find out deviations, if any. This is investigated using standard time-series econometric models. The long and short run relationship is inquired with respect to market size, inflation rate, level of infrastructure, domestic investment and openness to trade. The choice of variables for Indian economy is purely based on empirical observations obtained from scientific literature review.

The study involves application of autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model to investigate the relationship. The long run co-integration between FDI and economic growth is tested by Pesaran ARDL model. The stationarity of data is tested by augmented Dickey Fuller test and Phillip–Perron unit root test. Error correction model is applied to study the short run relationship using Johansen’s vector error correction model method besides other tests.

The results show that the domestic investment, inflation rate, level of infrastructure and trade openness influence inward FDI flows. These factors have both long and short-term relationship with FDI inflows. However, market size is insignificant in influencing the foreign investments inflows. There lies an inverse relation between FDI and inflation rate.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the study is original. The methodology and interpretation of results are distinct and different from other similar studies.

The purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the significant indicators of macroeconomic environment that influence credit risk in high-income countries.

The study employs the system generalized method of moments estimator to avoid the dynamic panel bias and endogeneity issues. Different indices of economic growth are used in each model in order to find the most significant proxy of the economic cycle that influences problem loans. The analysis is carried out using a sample of 49 developed countries covering a 16-year period (2000–2015).

The overall empirical results highlight that the development of industrial sectors and exports are the main drivers of loan performance in high-income countries. The findings specifically recommend adopting an expansionary fiscal policy to boost per capita income and potential productivity for the safety of the banking system.

The findings have direct practical applicability for stabilizing the financial system. The study recommends the government to increase the productivity of export-oriented industries in order to boost employment and increase the payment obligations of individuals and business firms. More importantly, it highlights the essentiality of perfect economic policy to control default risks.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical study that compares the relative effect of three alternative proxies of the economic cycle on credit risk and identifies the most significant proxy. The current study also empirically shows that industrial development could be one of the crucial factors to improve financial health in developed countries.

Business confidence is crucial to firm decisions, but it is deeply related to professional forecasters' expectations. Since Brazil is an important inflation targeting country, this paper investigates whether monetary policy credibility and disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations relate to business confidence in Brazil. The study considers the aggregate business confidence index and the business confidence indexes for 11 industrial sectors in Brazil.

The authors run ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments regressions to assess the direct effects of disagreements in expectation and monetary policy credibility on business confidence. The authors also make use of Wald test of parameter equality to observe whether there are “offsetting effects” of monetary credibility in mitigating the effects of both disagreements in expectations on business confidence. Besides, the authors run quantile regressions to analyze the effect of the main explanatory variables of interest on business confidence in contexts where business confidence is low (pessimistic) or high (optimistic).

Disagreements in inflation expectations reduce business confidence, monetary policy credibility improves business confidence and credibility mitigates the adverse effects of disagreements in expectations on business confidence. The sectors most sensitive to monetary policy credibility are Rubber, Motor Vehicles, Metallurgy, Metal Products and Cellulose. The findings also suggest the effect of disagreement in inflation expectations on business confidence decreases as confidence increases, and the effect of monetary policy credibility on business confidence increases as entrepreneurs are more optimistic.

While there is evidence that monetary policy credibility is beneficial to the economy, there are no studies on the effects of disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations on business confidence (at the aggregate and sectoral levels). Besides, there are no studies that have investigated whether monetary policy credibility can mitigate the effects of disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations on business confidence (at the aggregate and sectoral levels). Therefore, there are gaps to be filled in the literature addressing business confidence, monetary policy credibility and disagreements in expectations. These issues are particularly important to inflation targeting developing countries.

This paper analyzes variations in the effects of monetary and fiscal shocks on responses of macroeconomic variables, determinacy region, and welfare costs due to changes in trend inflation.

The authors develop the New-Keynesian model, in which the central banks can employ either nominal interest rate (IR rule) or money supply (MS rule) to conduct monetary policies. They also use their capital and recurrent spending budgets to conduct fiscal policies. By using the simulated method of moment (SMM) for parameter estimation, the authors characterize Vietnam's economy during 1996Q1–2015Q1.

The results report that consequences of monetary policy and fiscal policy shocks become more serious if there is a rise in trend inflation. Furthermore, the money supply might not be an effective instrument, and using the government budget for recurrent spending produces severe consequences in the high-trend inflation economy.

This paper's findings are critical for economists and monetary and fiscal authorities in effectively designing both the monetary and fiscal policies in confronting the shift in the inflation targets.

This is the first paper that examines the effects of trend inflation on the monetary and fiscal policy implementation in the case of Vietnam.

The purpose of this paper is to examine and analyze the exchange rate pass-through into inflation (ERPT) in Vietnam.

The paper examines and analyzes the ERPT in Vietnam by applying vector autoregression model over the period 2008‒2018.

The key finding of the research is that from the impulse response results, the transmission of exchange rate shocks to inflation is significant in Vietnam, and this is incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Moreover, the evidence from variance decompositions argues that exchange rate is an important factor to explain the fluctuation of inflation.

In overall, the depreciation or appreciation of exchange rate in Vietnam will considerably impact inflation.

The purpose of this study is to analyze commercial bank-level data to examine a credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in emerging economies, such as South Africa from BRICS countries. Among the important questions that central banks, economists and policymakers have raised in this area are: Do bank characteristics and macroeconomic variables influence credit supply in South Africa? Do bank characteristics and macroeconomic variables interact to influence credit supply in South Africa?

Static panel data with pooled OLS, a random effect model and the fixed-effect model are used for data analysis. Using a sample of 50 commercial banks from South Africa over 10 years from 2009 to 2018. The statistical software Stata is utilized for data analysis.

The conclusion of this study shows that in South Africa, the loan amount has a strong and positive macroeconomic variable inflation effect. The outcomes of the study also revealed that in South Africa, there is a strong but negative association between interaction macroeconomic variables inflation and bank characteristic liquidity ratio on the loan amount.

The authors contribute to the existing literature by identifying the key determinants of monetary policy transmission channels through credit in South Africa and, furthermore, through a country-level data analysis and disaggregation at the commercial bank level, as well as economic conditions.

The paper aims to measure the magnitude of the event-induced return anomaly around bonus issue announcement days in Turkey for recent years. Also, by describing the information content of these announcements with the current data, the study tries to find out the factors that cause return anomaly in Borsa Istanbul when firm boards release the bonus issue decision.

The paper conducts event study methodology for detecting market anomaly around bonus issue announcements. For the pairwise comparison purpose, t-test and one-way ANOVA methods are applied to examine if abnormal returns vary according to the information content of the announcements.

Announcement returns for bonus issues from internal resources outperform the issues that are distributed from last year's net income as bonus shares. Findings indicate different return behaviour among internal resources sub-groups. Findings also suggest that investors in Turkey welcome larger-sized issues, while cumulated returns for the initial offers significantly differ from the latter issues.

Findings are limited to the Turkish equity market. Also, the Public Disclosure Platform of Turkey, which is the main data source of the study, does not provide bonus issue announcements before 2010. Therefore, the previous year's data cannot be included in the analysis.

This paper is novel in terms of considering the main resources of the bonus issue in detail to measure the announcement's impact on stock returns.

This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the relationship between global economic uncertainty and price volatility, specifically focusing on commodity, industrial materials and energy price indices as proxies for global inflation, analyzing data from 1997 to 2020.

The dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is used to study the dynamic relationship between variables over a while.

The results demonstrated a positive relationship between commodity prices and the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU). Except for 1999–2000 and 2006–2008, the results of the energy price index model were very similar to those of the commodity price index. A predominant positive relationship is observed focusing on the connection between GEPU and the industrial material price index. The results of the pairwise Granger causality reveal a unidirectional relationship between the GEPU – the Global Commodity Price Index – and the GEPU – the Global Industrial Material Price Index. However, there is bidirectional causality between the GEPU – the Global Energy Price Index. In sum, changes in price indices can be driven by GEPU as a political factor indicating unfavorable economic conditions.

This paper provides a deeper understanding of the role of global uncertainty in the global inflation process. It fills the gap in the literature by empirically investigating the dynamic movements of global uncertainty and the three most important groups of prices.