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1 – 10 of 236Deevarshan Naidoo, Peter Brian Denton Moores-Pitt and Joseph Olorunfemi Akande
Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant…
Abstract
Purpose
Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant literature that has considered phenomenon hardly juxtapose the markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate volatility on the Stock and Real Estate market of South Africa. The essence is to determine whether the fluctuations in the exchange rate influence the markets prices differently.
Design/methodology/approach
The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH (1.1)] model was used in establishing the effect of exchange rate volatility on both markets. This study used monthly South African data between 2000 and 2020.
Findings
The results of this study showed that increased exchange rate volatility increases stock market volatility but decreases real-estate market volatility, both of which revealed weak influences from the exchange rates volatility.
Practical implications
This study has implication for policy in using the exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak volatility transmission from the exchange rate market to the stock and real estate market indicates that there is prospect for foreign investors to diversify their investments in these two markets.
Originality/value
This study investigated which of the assets market, stock or housing market do better in volatile exchange rate conditions in South Africa.
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This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy.
Design/methodology/approach
The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates.
Findings
This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making.
Originality/value
This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.
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This study aims to intend to investigate the dynamic causality and asymmetric relationships between corruption and economic growth of Nigeria.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to intend to investigate the dynamic causality and asymmetric relationships between corruption and economic growth of Nigeria.
Design/methodology/approach
Toda–Yamamoto (TY) Dynamic Causality Test and Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) were used for the estimations, for the period 1984–2018.
Findings
The result reveals the existence of bidirectional causality between control of corruption and economic growth, Similarly, in both the short run and long run, corruption can affect economic growth and economic growth can as well affects corruption.
Research limitations/implications
Findings of the research are limited to Nigeria whose data were used, based on TY causality test and NARDL as the econometrics techniques applied, for a period 1984–2018.
Practical implications
For a meaningful progress to be recorded in Nigeria in terms of economic growth, the country must device some means for strengthen the control of corruption.
Originality/value
The study was able to prove empirically, the existence of not only causality between corruption and economic growth but also asymmetric effect of corruption on economic growth and that of economic growth on corruption in both the long run and short run, as against the previous studies that are lopsided on the effect of corruption on economic growth only.
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Hai Le and Phuong Nguyen
This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.
Design/methodology/approach
This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.
Findings
The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.
Originality/value
This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between tax avoidance and earnings persistence in the light of a developing economy, with the main focus on China.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between tax avoidance and earnings persistence in the light of a developing economy, with the main focus on China.
Design/methodology/approach
In the analysis, the author conducts a survey on the tax avoidance situation of Chinese listed companies from 2012 to 2020. Then, a multivariate regression analysis is performed in order to analyse the relationship between corporate tax avoidance and earnings persistence.
Findings
The findings of the present study show that tax avoidance has a significant positive effect on earnings persistence. However, when the degree of tax avoidance is high, the “risk effect” of tax avoidance exceeds the “value effect”, and tax avoidance will reduce the persistence of earnings. This conclusion is even more prominent when the company is non-state-owned. Further research shows the increase of institutional investors’ shareholding ratio can improve “value effect” of tax avoidance, lessen “risk effect” of tax avoidance, and positively affect the relationship between tax avoidance and earnings persistence.
Practical implications
This study provides evidence for investors to understand the dual effect of tax avoidance on earnings persistence. The results may have implications for regulatory bodies. They can provide a better understanding of the corporate governance role of institutional investors in curbing opportunistic tax avoidance.
Originality/value
This study enriches the research on tax avoidance effects by analysing the impact of tax avoidance on earnings persistence. This study also compensates for the shortcomings of analysing earnings persistence mainly from the perspective of tax differences in the past, and promotes the study of the corporate governance effects of institutional investors under different levels of tax avoidance.
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Ziqin Yu and Xiang Xiao
In recent years, environmental issues and resource depletion have posed significant challenges to firms and society. To address these environmental challenges, firms seek to build…
Abstract
Purpose
In recent years, environmental issues and resource depletion have posed significant challenges to firms and society. To address these environmental challenges, firms seek to build strategic alliances of green supply chain management (GSCM) with their supply chain partner. As the largest developing country in the Asia–Pacific region, China needs to take more responsibility for environmental protection, which requires more Chinese firms to participate in GSCM. Therefore, focusing on the issue of GSCM and innovation persistence in the context of an increasingly harsh ecological environment is essential.
Design/methodology/approach
To test the hypothesis, the authors perform an empirical analysis on a sample of 124 listed firms in China from 2014 to 2019. The results are robust to a battery of robustness analyses the authors performed to take care of endogeneity.
Findings
Empirical results indicate that GSCM can promote innovation persistence and both market environment turbulence and technology environment turbulence have a positive moderating effect on the relationship between the two. Mechanism tests show that GSCM can improve innovation efficiency, ensure innovation quality and alleviate financing constraints, thus promoting the innovation persistence of firms.
Originality/value
This study can provide a theoretical basis for the country to promote GSCM orientation, raise firms' awareness of the value of GSCM, convey the significance of GSCM to investors, influence firms' investment decisions and give experience to other developing countries.
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Alejandra Parrao, Tomás Reyes, Alfonso Cruz and Kristel Schön Molina
Previous evidence has shown a generally positive relationship between continuously developed innovation, known as innovation persistence and employment growth in firms. This study…
Abstract
Purpose
Previous evidence has shown a generally positive relationship between continuously developed innovation, known as innovation persistence and employment growth in firms. This study investigates whether firm size moderates this relationship and how, considering persistent product and process innovation.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors studied the influence of firm size on the relationship between innovation persistence and employment using a 10-year panel database of firms based on national innovation surveys. The authors consider firm size as sales and measure innovation persistence through the hazard rate of innovation spells. To assess the main model, they use a system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator.
Findings
The authors' main findings indicate that firm size negatively moderates the relationship between persistent innovation and employment growth. These results suggest that the positive effects of product and process persistent innovation on employment growth decrease as firm size increases. The authors also find evidence indicating that the moderator role of firm size is greater when firms innovate more persistently. Robustness tests with different specifications confirm the results.
Originality/value
The authors show that firm size negatively affects the strength of the relationship between innovation persistence and employment growth in product and process innovations. The authors also show that the moderator role of firm size is greater when firms are more persistent in generating product and process innovation. Additionally, using a panel dataset, they provide evidence from a sample of firms in a developing country where no studies on this matter have previously been conducted.
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Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana and Eduard Melnicenco
This paper aims to analyse the persistence of the S&P500 and DAX 30 stock indices as well as of the Fed’s Effective Federal Funds rate and of the European Central Bank’s Marginal…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to analyse the persistence of the S&P500 and DAX 30 stock indices as well as of the Fed’s Effective Federal Funds rate and of the European Central Bank’s Marginal Lending Facility rate, and the long-run linkages between stock prices and interest rates in the USA and Europe, respectively.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology is based on the concepts of fractional integration and cointegration.
Findings
Using monthly data from January 1999 to December 2022, the results can be summarised as follows. All series examined are non-stationary: stock prices are found to be I(1) while interest rates display orders of integration substantially above 1, which implies a rejection of the hypothesis of mean reversion in all cases examined.
Originality/value
This paper uses an appropriate econometric framework to obtain new, reliable empirical evidence. All four series are highly persistent, and mean reversion does not occur in any single case. Moreover, the fractional cointegration analysis suggests that stock prices and interest rates are not linked in the long run.
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Rexford Abaidoo and Elvis Kwame Agyapong
This paper examines the role price fluctuations associated with internationally traded commodities play in inflationary conditions and inflation uncertainty among economies in…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines the role price fluctuations associated with internationally traded commodities play in inflationary conditions and inflation uncertainty among economies in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a panel 32 countries from the sub-region from 1996 to 2019, this study employed Two-Step System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation technique in its analysis.
Findings
Empirical evidence demonstrates that fluctuations in forex-adjusted price of crude oil, gold and cocoa have significant positive impact on inflation while forex-adjusted changes in price of cotton tend to have significant negative influence on consumer price inflation among economies in the sub-region. Additionally, the study found that gold, cocoa and cotton price changes on the international market have significant positive impact on inflation uncertainty in the sub-region (rise in price leads to increase rate of inflation uncertainty). Furthermore, improved regulatory quality and growth in output growth (GDP per capita growth) were found to help in stabilizing inflation uncertainty (reduce inflation uncertainty) among economies in the sub-region during periods of persistent growth in general price levels.
Originality/value
The study present a different approach based on individual economy forex-adjusted global prices of internationally traded commodities instead of general prices often used in the literature and assessed the effects such adjusted commodity prices have on inflation and inflation uncertainty. Additionally, the moderating role of regulatory quality and output growth between surmised nexuses are also examined.
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Shailesh Rastogi and Jagjeevan Kanoujiya
The main aim of the study is to explore the volatility spillover effect of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin) on inflation volatility in India.
Abstract
Purpose
The main aim of the study is to explore the volatility spillover effect of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin) on inflation volatility in India.
Design/methodology/approach
A popular tool, the Bivariate GARCH model (BEKK-GARCH), to study the volatility spillover effect, is applied in the study. Monthly data of cryptocurrencies and inflation (WPI and CPI indices) are gathered from 2015 to 2021.
Findings
Significant short-term responsiveness of volatility of cryptocurrencies on the inflation volatility is found. In addition to this, the significant volatility spillover effect from the cryptocurrencies to the inflation volatility is found.
Practical implications
The findings of the current paper can be of use for inflation management, target inflation policies and policies to contain the volatility of cryptocurrencies. The significance of the current paper is relevant as governments worldwide are officially recognizing cryptocurrencies and starting the process of launching their official virtual currency.
Originality/value
No other study is observed on the topic. Hence, the contribution and novelty of the findings of the current paper are very high and add value to the nonexistent literature on the topic. Lack of the number of inflation observations (data of CPI and WPI are available only in monthly frequency) crimps the model estimation. As the cryptocurrencies become old, more data points will be available by design, and such problems can be resolved, and better model estimation may be possible.
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