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1 – 10 of over 2000
Article
Publication date: 25 February 2014

Chyi Lin Lee

This study aims to extend the current literature by examining the inflation-hedging effectiveness of Malaysian residential property in the short run and long run. Malaysia is an…

1999

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to extend the current literature by examining the inflation-hedging effectiveness of Malaysian residential property in the short run and long run. Malaysia is an emerging market and has some unique characteristics. Therefore, a dedicated study in this market is critical.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis of this study involves two stages. The first stage is to estimate the inflation-hedging ability of Malaysian residential property in the short run. The Fama and Schwert model was employed. Thereafter, the long-run inflation-hedging effectiveness was assessed by using a dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model.

Findings

The Fama and Schwert tests reveal that Malaysian residential property does provide some satisfactory hedge against the expected inflation component over the short run. However, variations are evident among different types of residential property. The DOLS results provide strong evidence to support that housing is an effective hedge against the expected inflation in the long run, whereas no comparable evidence is found for the unexpected inflation component.

Practical implications

The findings enable more informed and practical investment decision-making regarding the role of housing in inflation risk management.

Originality/value

This paper is the first study to offer empirical evidence of the inflation-hedging attributes of Malaysian residential property. Moreover, the inflation-hedging effectiveness of different types of residential property is also compared for the first time.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 May 2020

Zaghum Umar, Dimitrios Kenourgios, Muhammad Naeem, Khadija Abdulrahman and Salma Al Hazaa

This study analyzes the inflation hedging of Islamic and conventional equities by employing 26 indices for the period ranging from January 1996 till August 2018. The authors…

Abstract

Purpose

This study analyzes the inflation hedging of Islamic and conventional equities by employing 26 indices for the period ranging from January 1996 till August 2018. The authors investigate the decoupling hypothesis for Islamic versus conventional equities across various investment horizons.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ a vector autoregressive framework coupled with bootstrapping procedure to compute inflation hedging measures. The hedging measures employed account for the inflation hedging capacity in terms of hedging effectiveness as well as the cost of hedging (efficiency). The authors account for various investment horizons ranging from one month to ten years.

Findings

Although, the authors do not find consistent evidence for the decoupling hypothesis of Islamic and conventional equities in terms of their inflation hedging capacity. However, the authors document that certain Islamic equity indices can be employed to effectively hedge against the risk of inflation.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this study is that the existing literature on the comparative performance of Islamic versus conventional equities against inflation risk is sparse. The purpose of this study is to analyze the inflation hedging attributes of Islamic versus conventional equities, that is, whether Islamic equities render better real returns than their conventional counterparts. It will contribute to the growing literature on the comparison between Islamic and conventional equities by documenting the real return attributes of these two, apparently different, assets. A further contribution is that in order to account for the different investment horizons for different types of investors, this study will quantify the real return attributes of Islamic and conventional equities for short-, medium- and long-term investors.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 47 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 1996

Graeme Newell

Examines the inflation‐hedging characteristics of Australian commercial property and property trusts over 1984‐1995. Using the Building Owners and Managers Association property…

2756

Abstract

Examines the inflation‐hedging characteristics of Australian commercial property and property trusts over 1984‐1995. Using the Building Owners and Managers Association property indices for Australian office, retail and industrial property, assesses the role of actual, expected and unexpected inflation. Strong evidence of inflation hedging is evident for Australian office, retail and industrial property. After adjusting for differences in market balance using vacancy rates, slightly less evidence of inflation hedging by Australian office property is evident.

Details

Journal of Property Finance, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0958-868X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 February 2021

Benjamin Gbolahan Ekemode

This study reinvestigates the short-run and long-run inflation-hedging attributes of residential property assets in the Nigerian property market, based on variations in property…

Abstract

Purpose

This study reinvestigates the short-run and long-run inflation-hedging attributes of residential property assets in the Nigerian property market, based on variations in property types and location.

Design/methodology/approach

Data used for this study comprised the holding period returns of three residential property types, namely bungalow, block of flats and detached house during 1999–2018. These were obtained from property practitioners in Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt, respectively. The inflation values obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics were split into actual, expected and unexpected components. Fama and Schwert’s (1977) ordered least square (OLS) regression was used to assess the short-term inflation hedging efficacy. Afterwards, the long-run link between residential property and inflation was examined using the Johansen and Juselius cointegration test.

Findings

The results showed that despite the variations in hedging behaviour across property types in the three locations, residential property assets significantly provided protection over actual, expected and unexpected inflation in the short run based on the OLS regression analysis. The result of the Johansen and Juselius cointegration test also established a long-term link between the residential property assets and actual inflation. However, mixed results were found on the link between residential property and expected and unexpected inflation, as some of the assets did not effectively hedge these inflation components in the long run.

Practical implications

The study implied that the differences in property types and geographic locations are crucial in establishing the short-run and long-run inflation-hedging attributes of residential property assets and should be factored into consideration.

Originality/value

The paper complements the existing body of knowledge on the inflation-hedging attributes of residential property in emerging markets by determining the effects of variation in house types and geographic differences on the analysis.

Details

Property Management, vol. 39 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 February 2023

Yasmine Essafi Zouari and Aya Nasreddine

Over a long period, even low inflation has an impact on portfolio value and households’ purchasing power. In such a context, inflation hedging should remain an important issue for…

Abstract

Purpose

Over a long period, even low inflation has an impact on portfolio value and households’ purchasing power. In such a context, inflation hedging should remain an important issue for investors. In particular, long-term investors, who are concerned with the protection of their wealth, seek to hold effective hedging assets. This study aims to demonstrate that residential assets in “Grand Paris” are a hedge against inflation and particularly against its unexpected component.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the physical residential markets in 127 communes in Paris and the Parisian first-ring suburbs are considered as potential asset classes. We simplified the analysis by clustering the 127 communes into five homogenous groups using ascending hierarchical classification (AHC). Then, we test the hedging ability of these groups within a mixed asset portfolios using both correlation and regression analysis.

Findings

This paper presents an analysis of the “Grand Paris” housing market and its inflation hedging ability with comparison to other financial asset classes. Results show that the five housing groups act as a highly positive hedge against unexpected inflation. Furthermore, cash and bonds seem to provide, respectively, a partial and an over hedge against unexpected inflation. Stocks act as a perverse hedge against unexpected inflation and provide no significant hedge against expected inflation. Also, indirect listed real estate demonstrates little correlation with inflation, which makes us reject its hedging ability contrary to physical residential real estate.

Research limitations/implications

The inflation topic: although several researches exist that question the hedging property of real estate, very few concentrate on physical residential assets and to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the only one that targets the “Grand Paris” area. Residential assets of the “Grand Paris” communes are confirmed to be a hedge against inflation and particularly against its unexpected component thanks to its capital appreciation rather than income one. Also, we show that the listed real estate in France (Sociétés d’Investissement Immobilier Cotée) does not provide the same hedging properties contrary to the US real estate investment trusts (REITs) who demonstrate this ability. Listed real estate could thus not be used interchangeably with housing to protect from inflation in the French market.

Practical implications

Protection of investors against inflation and in particular in the face of its return to France in 2022. Reassuring promoters and investors of the interest of residential investment projects in “Greater Paris” and of the potential that this holds.

Social implications

Inflation takes a chunk out of the purchasing power of money and thereby erodes the real value of people’s finance. Investors and households who seek protection from inflation erosion should invest in direct housing, and in particular within areas that are experiencing an effective metropolization process.

Originality/value

The originality of the study is precisely relative to the geographical area studied. The latter has experienced favorable economic conditions for several years and offers interesting fundamentals to explore and exploit in investment strategies that prove capable of protecting against imminent inflation. The database is specific to this project and has been built through the compilation of several sources and with the support of BNP Paribas Real Estate.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 1996

J.A. Schofield

Suggests that recent attempts to measure the inflation‐hedging characteristics of commercial property use an inappropriate methodology. As a result the conclusions of much of this…

2002

Abstract

Suggests that recent attempts to measure the inflation‐hedging characteristics of commercial property use an inappropriate methodology. As a result the conclusions of much of this body of work are of dubious value. Having an income and capital repayment linked to inflation, index‐linked gilts appear to be a good hedge against inflation. Applies traditional regression‐based inflation hedging tests to UK index‐linked gilts. The tests suggest that index‐linked gilts are not a hedge against inflation. There is an anomaly. The anomaly is resolved through explicitly defining a hedge against inflation and, given the definition, building a model to test if index‐linked gilts are a hedge against inflation. Concludes that index‐linked gilts are a hedge against inflation and that the regression‐based methodology is an inappropriate one. Given this finding, uses the procedure to assess the inflation‐hedging capacity of a single standard UK commercial property. It is found that property is around 20 per cent prone (80 per cent inflation proof). Finds the impact of the number of years between reviews, the level of yield and the level of gearing to be significant in the inflation‐hedging capacity of UK commercial property. Finally, the assumption of single property is relaxed to consider the characteristics of the portfolio of investment. This does not significantly change the results.

Details

Journal of Property Finance, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0958-868X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 February 2015

Daniel Wurstbauer and Wolfgang Schäfers

Similar to real estate, infrastructure investments are regarded as providing a good inflation hedge and inflation protection. However, the empirical literature on infrastructure…

1992

Abstract

Purpose

Similar to real estate, infrastructure investments are regarded as providing a good inflation hedge and inflation protection. However, the empirical literature on infrastructure and inflation is scarce. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the short- and long-term inflation-hedging characteristics, as well as the inflation protection associated with infrastructure and real estate assets.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on a unique data set for direct infrastructure performance, a listed infrastructure index, common direct and listed real estate indices, the authors test for short- and long-term inflation-hedging characteristics of these assets in the USA from 1991-2013. The authors employ the traditional Fama and Schwert (1977) framework, as well as Engle and Granger (1987) co-integration tests. Granger causality tests are further conducted, so as to gain insight into the short-run dynamics. Finally, shortfall risk measures are applied to investigate the inflation protection characteristics of the different assets over increasingly long investment horizons.

Findings

The empirical results indicate that in the short run, only direct infrastructure provides a partial hedge against inflation. However, co-integration tests suggest that all series have a long-run co-movement with inflation, implying a long-term hedge. The causality tests reveal reverse unidirectional causality – while real estate asset returns are Granger-caused by inflation, infrastructure asset returns seem to cause inflation. These findings further confirm that both assets represent a distinct asset class. Ultimately, direct infrastructure investments exhibit the most desirable inflation protection characteristics among the set of assets.

Research limitations/implications

This study only presents results based on a composite direct infrastructure index, as no sub-indices for sub-sectors are available yet.

Practical implications

Investors seeking assets that are sensitive to inflation and mitigate inflation risk should consider direct infrastructure investments in their asset allocation strategy.

Originality/value

This is the first study to examine the ability of direct infrastructure to assess inflation risk.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 33 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 April 2012

Daniel Obereiner and Björn‐Martin Kurzrock

This paper seeks to shed light on the question whether German real estate investment vehicles provide an effective hedge against inflation. To do so it aims to investigate…

1939

Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to shed light on the question whether German real estate investment vehicles provide an effective hedge against inflation. To do so it aims to investigate open‐end real estate funds, special funds and real estate stocks.

Design/methodology/approach

Traditional approaches as well as cointegration and causality tests are applied to monthly and quarterly index data from 1992:04 to 2009:12 for the subject investment vehicles.

Findings

There is strong evidence that real estate returns are almost independent from inflation in the short run. None of the investigated investment vehicles provide a hedge against expected and unexpected inflation at different lags. In contrast, cointegration tests show that real estate stocks, open‐end funds and special funds do provide a hedge against inflation in the long term. Likewise, causality tests suggest that real estate performance is influenced by inflation in the long term.

Research limitations/implications

The study still could not investigate closed‐end funds and G‐REITs. Yet, it does capture the most and comprehensive part of the indirect German real estate investment market.

Practical implications

Inflation‐hedging capabilities are of particular interest in periods of economic instability. Especially institutional investors with large asset portfolios seek to adjust their asset allocation to changing conditions.

Originality/value

To date, research papers on the subject of inflation‐hedging capabilities of real estate almost exclusively focus on REITs in the USA and in the UK. Research about the German real estate market and alternative investment vehicles is rare – partly due to a lack of transparency over the past – although international investors more and more adhere to the German real estate investment market.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 30 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 July 2020

Canicio Dzingirai and Nixon S. Chekenya

The life insurance industry has been exposed to high levels of longevity risk born from the mismatch between realized mortality trends and anticipated forecast. Annuity providers…

Abstract

Purpose

The life insurance industry has been exposed to high levels of longevity risk born from the mismatch between realized mortality trends and anticipated forecast. Annuity providers are exposed to extended periods of annuity payments. There are no immediate instruments in the market to counter the risk directly. This paper aims to develop appropriate instruments for hedging longevity risk and providing an insight on how existing products can be tailor-made to effectively immunize portfolios consisting of life insurance using a cointegration vector error correction model with regime-switching (RS-VECM), which enables both short-term fluctuations, through the autoregressive structure [AR(1)] and long-run equilibria using a cointegration relationship. The authors also develop synthetic products that can be used to effectively hedge longevity risk faced by life insurance and annuity providers who actively hold portfolios of life insurance products. Models are derived using South African data. The authors also derive closed-form expressions for hedge ratios associated with synthetic products written on life insurance contracts as this will provide a natural way of immunizing the associated portfolios. The authors further show how to address the current liquidity challenges in the longevity market by devising longevity swaps and develop pricing and hedging algorithms for longevity-linked securities. The use of a cointergrating relationship improves the model fitting process, as all the VECMs and RS-VECMs yield greater criteria values than their vector autoregressive model (VAR) and regime-switching vector autoregressive model (RS-VAR) counterpart’s, even though there are accruing parameters involved.

Design/methodology/approach

The market model adopted from Ngai and Sherris (2011) is a cointegration RS-VECM for this enables both short-term fluctuations, through the AR(1) and long-run equilibria using a cointegration relationship (Johansen, 1988, 1995a, 1995b), with a heteroskedasticity through the use of regime-switching. The RS-VECM is seen to have the best fit for Australian data under various model selection criteria by Sherris and Zhang (2009). Harris (1997) (Sajjad et al., 2008) also fits a regime-switching VAR model using Australian (UK and US) data to four key macroeconomic variables (market stock indices), showing that regime-switching is a significant improvement over autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) processes in the account for volatility, evidence similar to that of Sherris and Zhang (2009) in the case of Exponential Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ERCH). Ngai and Sherris (2011) and Sherris and Zhang (2009) also fit a VAR model to Australian data with simultaneous regime-switching across many economic and financial series.

Findings

The authors develop a longevity swap using nighttime data instead of usual income measures as it yields statistically accurate results. The authors also develop longevity derivatives and annuities including variable annuities with guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit (GLWB) and inflation-indexed annuities. Improved market and mortality models are developed and estimated using South African data to model the underlying risks. Macroeconomic variables dependence is modeled using a cointegrating VECM as used in Ngai and Sherris (2011), which enables both short-run dependence and long-run equilibrium. Longevity swaps provide protection against longevity risk and benefit the most from hedging longevity risk. Longevity bonds are also effective as a hedging instrument in life annuities. The cost of hedging, as reflected in the price of longevity risk, has a statistically significant effect on the effectiveness of hedging options.

Research limitations/implications

This study relied on secondary data partly reported by independent institutions and the government, which may be biased because of smoothening, interpolation or extrapolation processes.

Practical implications

An examination of South Africa’s mortality based on industry experience in comparison to population mortality would demand confirmation of the analysis in this paper based on Belgian data as well as other less developed economies. This study shows that to provide inflation-indexed life annuities, there is a need for an active market for hedging inflation in South Africa. This would demand the South African Government through the help of Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) to issue inflation-indexed securities which will help annuities and insurance providers immunize their portfolios from longevity risk.

Social implications

In South Africa, there is an infant market for inflation hedging and no market for longevity swaps. The effect of not being able to hedge inflation is guaranteed, and longevity swaps in annuity products is revealed to be useful and significant, particularly using developing or emerging economies as a laboratory. This study has shown that government issuance or allowing issuance, of longevity swaps, can enable insurers to manage longevity risk. If the South African Government, through ASSA, is to develop a projected mortality reference index for South Africa, this would allow the development of mortality-linked securities and longevity swaps which ultimately maximize the social welfare of life assurance policy holders.

Originality/value

The paper proposes longevity swaps and static hedging because they are simple, less costly and practical with feasible applications to the South African market, an economy of over 50 million people. As the market for MLS develops further, dynamic hedging should become possible.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 21 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 October 2008

Abeyratna Gunasekarage, David M. Power and Ting Ting Zhou

The purpose of this paper is to examine the long‐term relationship between the rate of inflation and the returns of real estate and financial assets traded in New Zealand markets.

1370

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the long‐term relationship between the rate of inflation and the returns of real estate and financial assets traded in New Zealand markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The question of whether these assets are good candidates to hedge inflation in the long run is addressed employing cointegration and causality tests on quarterly data for the period from December 1979 to December 2003.

Findings

A strong long‐term relationship was found between the returns offered by all types of real estate assets (i.e. residential, commercial, industrial and farm building) and the rate of inflation. However, such a long run relationship is not detected between the rate of inflation and the returns of financial assets (i.e. stocks, short‐term bills and long‐term bonds).

Research limitations/implications

The empirical findings reveal that the direction of causality is from inflation to real estate assets indicating that changes in property prices do not cause inflation in New Zealand; the cause of inflation is independent of the price movements for real estate assets. The real estate assets are found to offer an effective hedge against inflation in the long run. The same cannot be said for the financial assets, however.

Originality/value

This is the first New Zealand study which investigates the long‐term inflation hedging effectiveness of both real estate and financial assets. The findings should be of interest to most of the investors in New Zealand as the real estate assets play a significant role in their portfolio decisions.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 25 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 2000