Search results

Describes a study to measure the quality of service provided by food‐poisoning surveillance agencies in England and Wales in terms of the requirements of a representative consumer ‐ the egg producing industry ‐ adopting “egg associated” outbreak investigation reports as the reference output. Defines and makes use of four primary performance indicators: accessibility of information; completeness of evidence supplied in food‐poisoning outbreak investigation reports as to the sources of infection in “egg‐associated” outbreaks; timeliness of information published; and utility of information and advice aimed at preventing or controlling food poisoning. Finds that quality expectations in each parameter measured are not met. Examines reasons why surveillance agencies have not delivered the quality demanded. Makes use of detailed case studies to illustrate inadequacies of current practice. Attributes failure to deliver “accessibility” to a lack of recognition on the status or nature of “consumers”, combined with a self‐maintenance motivation of the part of the surveillance agencies. Finds that failures to deliver “completeness” and “utility” may result from the same defects which give rise to the lack of “accessibility” in that, failing to recognize the consumers of a public service for what they are, the agencies feel no need to provide them with the data they require. The research indicates that self‐maintenance by scientific epidemiologists may introduce biases which when combined with a politically inspired need to transfer responsibility for food‐poisoning outbreaks, skew the conduct of investigations and their conclusions. Contends that this is compounded by serious and multiple inadequacies in the conduct of investigations, arising at least in part from the lack of training and relative inexperience of investigators, the whole conditioned by interdisciplinary rivalry between the professional groups staffing the different agencies. Finds that in addition failures to exploit or develop epidemiological technologies has affected the ability of investigators to resolve the uncertainties identified. Makes recommendations directed at improving the performance of the surveillance agencies which, if adopted will substantially enhance food poisoning control efforts.

The purpose of this study is to determine the proportion of the population that will be susceptible to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the proportions of infections, recoveries and fatalities from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The design was a longitudinal survey of COVID-19 infections, recoveries and fatalities in Nigeria using the data on the daily updates of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control for the period 1 May to 23 August 2020. Markov chain analysis was performed on the data.

The results showed that in the long run, 8.4% of the population will be susceptible to COVID-19 infections, 26.4% of them will be infected, 61.2% of the infected will recover and 4% will become fatal. Thus, if this pattern of infections and recoveries continue, the majority of the infected people in Nigeria will recover whilst a very small proportion of the infected people will die.

A dearth of the extant literature on the problem, especially from the management science perspective.

Results of the study will facilitate policymakers’ response to the curtailment of the pandemic in Nigeria.

Curtailing the pandemic through the results of this study will assist in easing the social consequences of the pandemic.

The proposed adjustment to the susceptibilities, infections and recoveries model through the introduction of a fourth state (fatality) to get the susceptibilities, infections, recoveries and fatalities model, signalling a point of departure from previous studies.

There are several methods developed in the recent past to predict the spread of COVID-19 in different countries. However, due to changing scenarios in terms of interaction among people, none could predict the case close to the actual figures. An attempt to simulate people's interaction due to economic reopening concerning the confirmed cases at various places as per changing situation has been made. The scenario development method's base lies in the hypothesis that if there were no inter-state transportation during India's lockdown after May 24th, the number of infection cases would have started lowering down in a normalized progression.

This study has developed three scenarios from the worst to the business-as-usual to the best in order to project the COVID-19 infections in India concerning infections observed from January 30th till May 24th, 2020, since the domestic flights became operational from May 25th, 2020, in India.

Based on the observed cases till May 24th, the rise of cases is projected further in a random progression and superimposed to the normal progression. The results obtained in the three scenarios present that worst case needs complete lockdown, business-as-usual case needs regulatory lockdown and best case assures complete lockdown release by the second week of September 2020. This study suggests the preparedness and mitigation strategy for a threefold lockdown management scheme in all-inclusive.

The work has been done on a hypothesis which is solely original.

The purpose of this paper is to identify the potential socio-cultural determinants contributing to inequalities and the susceptibility of the Ojek to Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection.

In 2010 a qualitative enquiry was employed to collect data concerning the susceptibility of the Ojek to HIV infection. Both one-on-one open-ended in-depth interviews and focus group discussions were employed. Participants included Ojek (hired motorcycle drivers), religious and community leaders, staff from the HIV/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) Commission of Belu and staff from two HIV/AIDS non-governmental organisations. A thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data.

The findings showed four socio-cultural determinants of susceptibility to HIV infection within the Ojek community. These included: first, mobility and migration; second, patterns of sexual behaviours, sexual networks and sexual incentives; third, cultural norms and social interactions; and fourth, the lack of resources, knowledge and awareness of HIV/AIDS. Underpinned by these factors, the main determinant of HIV susceptibility for the Ojek is an individual’s engagement in sexual intercourse with multiple sex partners, including female commercial sex workers (FCSWs).

There is a need to disseminate HIV/AIDS information and education throughout the Ojek communities, and to engage the general population in the promotion of sexual behavioural change among the Ojek in Belu. Empowerment strategies should also be employed to empower the general community, the Ojek and FCSWs in order to address HIV/AIDS transmission.

This paper provides evidence of the socio-cultural determinants of HIV inequalities within the Ojek community in Indonesia. An understanding of these determinants would enable the planning, implementation and application of a holistic approach addressing the determinants of HIV in Belu and other similar settings. Additionally, knowledge of such determinants would provide an understanding of the role of inter-sectoral collaboration and community participation in tackling the susceptibility to HIV infection within the Ojek community.

This study aims to evaluate the dynamics between healthcare resource capacity expansion and disease spread. Further, the study estimates the resources required to respond to a pandemic appropriately.

This study adopts a system dynamics simulation and scenario analysis to experiment with the modification of the susceptible exposed infected and recovered (SEIR) model. The experiments evaluate diagnostic capacity expansion to identify suitable expansion plans and timelines. Afterwards, two popularly used forecasting tools, artificial neural network (ANN) and auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), are used to estimate the requirement of beds for a period when infection data became available.

The results from the study reflect that aggressive testing with isolation and integration of quarantine can be effective strategies to prevent disease outbreaks. The findings demonstrate that decision-makers must rapidly expand the diagnostic capacity during the first two weeks of the outbreak to support aggressive testing and isolation. Further, results confirm a healthcare resource deficit of at least two months for Delhi in the absence of these strategies. Also, the study findings highlight the importance of capacity expansion timelines by simulating a range of contact rates and disease infectivity in the early phase of the outbreak when various parameters are unknown. Further, it has been reflected that forecasting tools can effectively estimate healthcare resource requirements when pandemic data is available.

The models developed in the present study can be utilised by policymakers to suitably design the response plan. The decisions regarding how much diagnostics capacity is needed and when to expand capacity to minimise infection spread have been demonstrated for Delhi city. Also, the study proposed a decision support system (DSS) to assist the decision-maker in short- and long-term planning during the disease outbreak.

The study estimated the resources required for adopting an aggressive testing strategy. Several experiments were performed to successfully validate the robustness of the simulation model. The modification of SEIR model with diagnostic capacity increment, quarantine and testing block has been attempted to provide a distinct perspective on the testing strategy. The prevention of outbreaks has been addressed systematically.

The years 2011, 2012, and 2013 witnessed both significant developments and setbacks in global polio eradication efforts. On the positive side, January 13, 2012, marked a full year since India had detected a case of wild poliovirus. On the negative side, polio continued to be endemic in three countries-Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria-and in those countries the goal of eliminating polio seemed more challenging than ever. Between December 2012 and January 2013, sixteen polio workers were killed in Pakistan, and in February 2013, nine women vaccinating children against polio in Kano, Nigeria, were shot dead by gunmen suspected of belonging to a radical Islamist sect. In addition, after a 95 percent decline in polio cases in 2010, the number of cases in Nigeria rebounded in 2011. Recognizing that polio was unlikely to be eliminated in these countries in the near term, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative moved its target date for eradication from 2013 to 2018.

These setbacks sparked a debate about the appropriate strategy for global eradication of polio. Indeed, some experts believed that recent setbacks were not caused by poor management but were instead the result of epidemiological characteristics and preconditions that might render polio eradication unachievable. These experts argued that global health efforts should focus on the control or elimination of polio rather than on the eradication of the disease.

This case presents an overview of polio and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative and recounts the successful effort to eradicate smallpox. The case enables a rich discussion of the current global strategy to eradicate polio, as well as the issue of whether eradication is the appropriate global public health objective. More generally, the case provides a concrete example of a particular type of global public good, namely infectious disease eradication.

After analyzing and discussing the case, students will be able to:

• Understand the nature of a global public good

• Perform a back-of-the-envelope benefit-cost analysis of polio eradication

• Discuss the appropriate strategy for eradicating an infectious disease

• Apply game theory to analyzing which countries would be likely to contribute funds toward global polio eradication

• Discuss the role of private organizations in the provision of global public goods

Understand the nature of a global public good

Perform a back-of-the-envelope benefit-cost analysis of polio eradication

Discuss the appropriate strategy for eradicating an infectious disease

Apply game theory to analyzing which countries would be likely to contribute funds toward global polio eradication

Discuss the role of private organizations in the provision of global public goods

The official supervision which may be exercised over the food supply of England and Wales, so far as its quality and wholesomeness is concerned, falls under the following heads:—

Analyses how HIV/AIDS has affected African Americans, who are acknowledged as a vulnerable racialized group, along with Puerto Ricans. Defines the term of racialized social system as a society where part of the stratification system is designed to reank people based on their racial classification. Sheds light on AIDS and ethnicity through copious use of figures and tables. Summarizes that there is little control over tehir own community economics for African Americans, legitimately, as HIV runs riot. Urges a race‐conscious approach to the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

This study investigates the observed resurgence in religious beliefs seen across many societies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the economic theory of religious clubs, the author models religious participation during the pandemic as a mechanism for alleviating the financial distress associated with the health distress from the pandemic.

Using data from the COVID-19 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (NLPS) in Nigeria, the author investigates the economic motivation for religious intensity during the COVID-19 pandemic. To address endogeneity concerns, the author exploits geographic variables of temperature and longitudes as sources of COVID-19 risk.

Overall, health distress stimulates religious intensity. Consistent with the economic theory of religious clubs, adverse health shocks stimulate financial distress, and the effect is stronger among religious participants. Similarly, people see God and not the government as a source of protection against COVID-19.

The study’s model sees religious organizations as public goods providers, especially when governments and markets are inefficient.

The study’s recommendations support an expanded role for religious networks in healthcare delivery and more public funding to attenuate the post-pandemic resurgence of social violence in economically distressed regions.

Despite the research interest in the COVID-19 pandemic, the long-term implications, many of which relate to social behavior adjustments that cause individuals to identify more closely with their social group, need greater understanding. Suppose religious intensity is linked to economic distress. In that case, this is a major source of worry for countries whose economies are subject to higher fluctuations and where the governments and markets are inefficiently organized. These regions may be more susceptible to a resurgence in religious fundamentalism associated with the economic shocks from the pandemic. Consequently, these regions would require more public funding to attenuate the potential for costly activities like organized violence, suicide attacks and terrorist activities in the aftermath of the pandemic.

Prompted by the observation of the increase in religious identity through religious intensity during the pandemic, the author contributes by developing theoretically-based hypotheses that are incentive-compatible to provide a rational justification for the observation. The author empirically validates the hypothesis by taking advantage of the COVID-19 National Survey in Nigeria by specifically using survey rounds 4 and 7 which have more comprehensive religious items included.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-11-2022-0719

Effective performance management of local governments is essential for efficient service delivery to the citizens. This is especially true for developing countries where performance management of public sector is severely lacking. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a pioneering and effective performance management framework that has been implemented in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

The paper outlines the design and implementation of the system in light of relevant research work. Latest digital technologies including smartphone applications and social media have been used to make the system effective and responsive to the needs of the citizens and sustainable in the long term.

The impact of the system includes a drastic reduction in polio infection cases by 90 percent in the province and the successful completion of one of the biggest afforestation campaigns in the world in recent years. In addition, noteworthy improvements in public health, education and municipal services have also been achieved through this system in a province that has a population of 30.5 m.

The paper uses field data to highlight the positive impact of the system which has been operational for more than two years now.

The strong positive impact of the system supports the case for implementation of similar public sector reforms in other developing countries.

The implementation of the system has resulted in significant improvements in social sector service delivery.

There is very limited literature available on successful performance management reforms in the public sector of the developing world. Therefore, this case study can be a very important resource.