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Three rival internal change theories of budgeting have characterized the twentieth century. Internal change theories consider the importance of change made inside governments; exogenous factors do not have a significant bearing on outcomes in these approaches. The century started out with the rational/scientific, then moved to incrementalism by mid to latecentury. The century ended with the garbage can model. This paper tests the descriptive power of each of these models on budget outcome data. The methods used in this study were time series modeling of monthly U.S. national government budget outcomes from 1968 to 1999. The results provide support for both incrementalism and rational/scientific budgeting. There was no support found in this study for the anarchical tendencies associated with the garbage can theory of budgeting. These results suggest that the garbage can model may not deserve its reputation as the dominant budgeting paradigm at the close of the twentieth century.

The paper applies two core theoretical frameworks of budgetary change-incrementalism and punctuated equilibrium theory-to a new database of Hungarian final accounts data for the period 1991 through 2013. Based on our analysis trends in Hungarian budgeting are in line with available comparative evidence suggesting that yearly changes of budget outlays in policy domains are best characterized by a punctuated equilibrium model. The most significant variable in predicting whether an observation would fall into the equilibrium or punctuated group was the share of the given policy domain of total outlays. However, alternative explanatory variables, such as the electoral cycle, the fiscal cycle and the business cycle had no effect on the results.

The paper concentrates on the administrative side of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) budgetary process and employs a quantitative approach to test two major hypotheses about the style of decision making and the impact of this style on annual estimations of public expenditures. Therefore, the major question of the paper is not concerned with the content of these decisions (annual estimations) in a substantive descriptive and normative manner, as in public finance studies, but rather with the analysis of the outcomes of these decisions. The paper uses data from annual budgetary allocations to test certain hypotheses and concludes that UAE budgetary decision-makers in United Arab Emirates Federal ministries use an incremental style of decision making to estimate their annual expenditure.

An exciting opportunity that many advanced industrial democracies faced in the late 1990s was the movement from budgetary deficit to surplus. This came after years of persistent deficits. Traditional decisionmaking theories such as budgetary incrementalism failed to explain this longrun relationship, since it has been inherently a short-run theory. This paper uses rational expectations theory to demonstrate its relationship to budgetary decision-making reforms and the deficit (surplus) for Canada, the UK and the United States. The results demonstrated that there was an intertemporal budget constraint in operation in the three countries, and decision-makers at the macro level used rational expectations in the formulation of their annual budget. In the theory, budget actors strived to balance their budget, but did so over the longrun as opposed to the short-run incrementalist interpretation.

This paper tests public budgeting as a long-run and short-run process; political decision makers strive to head toward budgetary balance over the long run but are constrained in the short run and follow incremental decision-making. First, the budget equilibrium theory is stated and is used to explain the relationship between revenues and expenditures. Second, the interaction between expenditures and revenues is tested with a vector error correction model for Canada, UK and the US, using annual time series data between 1948 and 2000. The results show that, in the long-run, revenues are the driving force behind the budget in Canada; in the UK expenditures force the budget toward balance. In the short-run, incrementalism occurs in both of these countries. The most interesting finding is for the United States where on-budget revenues and expenditures both push the budget toward balance over the longrun but there is no incrementalism in the process in the short-run. This, of course, is contrary to much of the existing literature.

Cluster analysis on detailed federal outlay data from fiscal year (FY) 1962 to FY 1995 shows instead of being incremental or not, the budget is both. Spending is initially volatile but becomes incremental over time and with political entrenchment. The theory of incrementalism needs to be updated to reflect this complexity. Also, patterns show that most spending falls into three main groups, which do not correspond to traditional budgetary classifications, and none of the patterns show any major shifts in response to process upheaval. This suggests (1) rethinking how to analyze budget data, and (2) while processes and decision-makers have changed, the decisions have not.

Examines the construction of the funding formula, following the 1988 Education Act, used to determine the levels of devolved budgets in three English local education authorities (LEAs). Explains that, in each LEA, a team was formed to determine the funding formula. Also explains that, as most schools pre‐local management of schools (LMS) only kept aggregate records showing the cost of education at the levels of primary/secondary sectors rather than individual school level, the LMS teams faced serious problems in defining budget parameters, identifying cost elements and attributing costs to functions. More critically, points out that while the 1988 Education Act made it clear that the new budgeting system should be comprehensive in the sense of not merely reflecting past expenditure patterns but being based on perceived education needs, the LMS teams developed funding formulae which predominantly preserved the status quo established by historical expenditure patterns. Explores both the arguments and the mechanisms which each LMS team deployed in order to produce an incrementalist budgeting system and the constraints that operated on incrementalism.

Charles Lindblom (Professor of Economics & Political Science at Yale University) coined the term ‘disjointed incrementalism’. Lindblom was interested in the decision‐making process — the ways in which and reasons for which planners, managers and administrators arrived at particular policy decisions.

Local government budget processes have changed substantially since the early 1990s, due in part to an expanded emphasis on performance accountability and the availability of information technology. We present evidence that local government budget outcomes also have changed over the same time period when disaggregated at the functional level. Though we do not assert a causal relationship between the two, our findings indicate that the normative-descriptive gap in budget theory described by Rubin (1990) deserves new scholarly attention. Our profession’s attraction to incrementalism may have blurred the success of budget reform in local government.