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The purpose of this paper is to review the current literature in the field of tourism demand forecasting.

Published papers in the high quality journals are studied and categorized based their used forecasting method.

There is no forecasting method which can develop the best forecasts for all of the problems. Combined forecasting methods are providing better forecasts in comparison to the traditional forecasting methods.

This paper reviews the available literature from 2007 to 2017. There is not such a review available in the literature.

This research aims at arriving at a broad scope of the lessons learnt after two years of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak by analysing the catalyst and inhibiting factors within three aspects of the tourism sector: destination crisis management, tourist behaviour and tourism industry trends.

The methodology of this paper involves semi-structured interviews with high-ranking European travel agents as the agents represent the intermediates between the tourism offer and demand.

Data obtained from travel agents disclosed the factors that catalysed and inhibited the destination, the behaviour of tourists and the tourism industry trends. By contrasting data with previous literature, constructing an overview of the positive and negative outcomes of the pandemic in the tourism sector is possible.

Governments, destination marketing and management organisations and tourism and hospitality organisations could learn from the lessons of COVID-19 outbreak to cope better with future disruptive events affecting the tourism industry.

The paper is novel as it is the first overview that attempts to synthesise the lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic in the tourism sector by analysing tourism sector's three dimensions: the destination, the tourists and the industry.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the inbound and outbound medical tourism in the UK to determine if the UK can be considered as a net exporter of health services as well as the impact of the 2007 global economic crisis, diaspora populations and the number of UK expats on medical tourism figures.

Using microdata drawn from the International Passenger Survey (2000-2016), the authors estimate the flows, number of nights and expenditure of tourists looking for medical treatment who complete international visits of less than 12 months’ duration to and from the UK. The authors also analyse the main destinations of UK residents, the country of origin of overseas residents and the particular case of British expats.

The results show the upward trend of inbound and outbound patients, the strong seasonality in outbound patients, and the significant increase in the levels of expenditure of overseas residents since 2005. Poland, France, Hungary and India are the chosen countries by UK residents to be treated, whereas Irish Republic, Spain, France, Gibraltar and the United Arab Emirates are the main countries providing inbound health patients. However, the processes of migration explain full or partly the inbound and outbound flows found for some countries.

This study offers a critical insight into inbound and outbound medical flows, demonstrating both the scope for and limitations to market development in this area.

This paper aims to consider the role of geopolitical risk in explaining tourism demand in India, a major tourist destination of the Asian region. Furthermore, the study also considers how in addition to geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate, inflation and trade openness impact tourism demand.

The Bayer and Hanck (2013) method of cointegration is applied to explore the relationship between geopolitical risk and tourism demand. Furthermore, the study has also used the auto distributed lag model to determine whether there is a long-run cointegrating association between tourism demand, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate and trade openness. Finally, the vector error correction model confirms the direction of causality across the set of the major variables.

This paper finds that geopolitical risk adversely impacts inbound international travel to India. This study also obtains the consistency of the results across different estimation techniques controlling for important macro variables. The Granger causality test confirms the unidirectional causality from geopolitical risk to tourism and further from economic uncertainty to tourism. The findings from the study confirm that geopolitical risks have long-term repercussions on the tourism sector in India. The results indicate that there is an urgent need to develop a pre-crisis management plan to protect the aura of Indian tourism. The tourism business houses should develop skilful marketing strategies in the post-crisis to boost the confidence of the tourists.

This paper provides valuable practical implications to tourism business houses. The tourism business houses can explore geopolitical risk measure and economic policy uncertainty measure to analyse the demand for international tourism in India. Further, the major stakeholders can establish platforms to help tourists to overcome the fear associated with geopolitical risk.

This study is the first of its kind to explore the geopolitical risks and their long-run consequences in the context of tourism in India. The study puts emphasis on the role of national policy to maintain peace otherwise it would be detrimental to tourism.

In 2022, the new normal era began to experience an increase in the number of tourists visiting Bali. Even though spiritual tourism was optimistic in attracting foreign visitors, most tourists come from nearby nations like Australia, indicating that the visits had a brief duration in this new era. To sustain the income of spiritual tourism advocates, it is possible to overcome the brief visit. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the collaboration of digitalized spiritual tourism activities in 2022. Data were collected through literature study, observation and in-depth interviews to determine the spiritual tourism hybrid business. The result showed that the digitalization of spiritual tourism builds an on-off hybrid method in marketing and products, thus developing a theory of the characteristics. This on-off hybrid provides a touch of experience for tourists to visit directly. Therefore, digitalization builds the resilience of spiritual tourism in the new normal era through marketing and service of hybrid products.

The gap between word-of-mouth marketing habits, direct product service and the tendency to digitize creates adaptation problems that take time. These problems make a practical contribution to building marketing and spiritual tourism products. The theoretical contribution is to build integrated marketing and spiritual tourism digital product concepts. A qualitative research method was adopted because the population of spiritual tourism is very limited. Therefore, it needs to be explored through experienced and knowledgeable informants. Literature study, observation and in-depth interviews were used to collect data. The literature study technique collects data from written sources, namely books, articles and internet sources. Observations were made by analyzing non-participants by recording various marketing activities and services for spiritual tourism products. Additionally, in-depth interviews were conducted with informants about digitalization in the new normal era.

The result showed that the digitalization of spiritual tourism builds an on-off hybrid method in marketing and products, thus developing a theory of the characteristics. This on-off hybrid provides a touch of experience for tourists to visit directly. Therefore, digitalization builds the resilience of spiritual tourism in the new normal era through marketing and service of hybrid products.

The method has successfully built digital and direct visit products. Digital products share knowledge, while direct visit products serve to gain hands-on experience. These products provide income for spiritual tourism actors. However, direct visit products are more emphasized to spread income, such as hotels, restaurants and souvenirs. This development provides a theoretical implication that the characteristics of tourism products can be enjoyed at the service provider’s premises and the area of origin of tourists with digital technology. Therefore, digitalization has changed the theory of the characteristics of tourism products from having to be enjoyed by service providers (Yoeti, 1991).

This paper aims to investigate the determinants of international bilateral tourism demand in countries of Southern Common Market (specifically, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay) and Chile.

In this study, an augmented gravity model is used to investigate the determinants of international bilateral tourism demand in countries of Southern Common Market. The novel aspect of the analysis is that three models of tourism are defined, depending on the spatial distribution of tourist arrivals and departures. An intra-regional model, an extra-regional model and a general model are estimated using a dynamic panel data model.

The results indicate that traditional gravity variables are significant in explaining bilateral inbound arrivals, but the characteristics and the behavior of the demand of tourism vary on whether the country belongs to the sub-regional bloc.

The differences found in this paper might have some impacts on the desired design and direction of the touristic policies of each country.

This study analyzes the determinants of international tourism demand through different bilateral relationships, differentiating between intra- and extra-block tourisms.

The purpose of this paper is to identify the link between political ideology and the management of tourism in countries. The authors stipulate that the predominant political ideology in the country influences the nature and logic of state interventions in the tourism industry.

The paper elaborates several case studies from various countries – Bulgaria, Cyprus, Scandinavia, Russia, USA, China, Japan, Indonesia, and North Korea.

Countries with predominant (neo)liberal ideology do not typically interfere in tourism regulation, while nationalism leads governments to stimulate inbound and domestic tourism. Communist ideological approaches tend to be burdensome, inhibiting growth while stressing the promotion of the socialist achievements of a country. Countries that are traditionally thought of as social democratic have been evolving in recent years to regulate tourism in ways that are more liberal in nature than social democratic.

Political ideologies shape the acceptability of government support for private tourist companies, legislation in field of tourism, limitation/stimulation of inbound/outbound tourist flows. For the future the authors expect greater politicisation of tourism, active tourism “wars” between countries, greater control of governments on populations, thriving nationalism, “aggressive” environmentalism.

This is one of the first papers to discuss the impact of the political ideology on the management of tourism at the national level.

This study investigates the effect of COVID-19 pandemic perceived health risk on traveller's post-pandemic perception and future travel intention. The study aims to provide insight into the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic and its potential influence on tourist behaviour.

Two hundred and forty-four responses were gathered quantitatively through an online survey. The research hypotheses were analysed using the partial least square structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM).

This study found that COVID-19 affects tourists' travel behaviour. Key findings found that perceived health risk discourages travel attitudes and eventually lessens their future travel intentions. Results also suggest future strategies/directions for restarting the tourism industry.

The study outcome assists tourism stakeholders in understanding the changes in tourist behaviour amid the heightened perceived health risk of COVID-19. Tourism policymakers and industry players should consider exploring how to mitigate similar health crises in the future.

By extending the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), this study establishes a theoretical framework in exploring the interrelationships between perceived risk, post-pandemic perception and future travel intention. This study sets a significant research agenda for future tourism research in understanding the mechanism behind health risk perceptions and tourist behaviour.

The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications.

The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan.

The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined.

The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

The purpose of this study is to explore the tourism policy commitment of the government of Uzbekistan to bring back the tourists and sustain the tourism and hospitality sector during the Covid-19 pandemic. The study employed qualitative documentary research methodology using the thematic analysis with the support of the Nvivo 12 to analyze Google news articles published in the English language. The results demonstrated that the government of Uzbekistan employed a variety of policies and measures geared towards tourists and businesses during the pandemic. Mainly, the government showed confidence and trust in its policies by providing financial compensation to tourists if they get the Covid-19 infection, improved sanitary conditions and travel restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus. In terms of businesses, the government was dedicated to restoring and mitigating the adverse outcomes of Covid-19 in the tourism and hospitality sector by providing subsidies and certification that the company is following the sanitary protocols. The findings of this study illustrate that the government of Uzbekistan should continue feeding the media with the information related to strategies implemented towards reviving the tourism and hospitality sector, which will build the confidence of the tourists and businesses during the pandemic period.