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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 October 2019

Mohamed Samir Abdalla Zahran

The purpose of this paper is to explore and analyse the dynamic relationship between remittances inflows of Egyptians working abroad and asymmetric oil price shocks.

2285

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore and analyse the dynamic relationship between remittances inflows of Egyptians working abroad and asymmetric oil price shocks.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to explain the impulse response functions (IRFs) and the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The rationale behind using these tools is its ability to examine the dynamic effects of our variables of interest.

Findings

The impulse response functions confirmed that remittance inflows have various responses to asymmetric oil price shocks. For instance, inflowing remittances increase in response to positive oil price shocks, while it decreases in response to negative oil price shocks. Also, the results indicate that the responses are significant in the short and medium-run and insignificant in the long run. The magnitude of these responses reaches its peak or trough in the third year. Further, the variance decomposition reveals that oil price decreases are more influential than oil price increases.

Originality/value

This means that remittances inflows in Egypt are pro-cyclical with oil price shocks. That explained by the fact that more than one-half of those remittances sent from GCC countries where real economic growth is very pro-cyclical with the oil prices. This empirical assessment will help policymakers to determine the behaviour of remittances and highlights the impact of different kinds of oil prices shocks on remittances. Unlike the little existing literature, this study is the first study applied the VAR model using a novel dataset spanning 1960-2016.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 8 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 16 June 2021

Amira Mohamed Emara and Nashwa Mostafa Ali Mohamed

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between global economic fluctuations and human development through four transmission channels (foreign direct investment (FDI)…

1896

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between global economic fluctuations and human development through four transmission channels (foreign direct investment (FDI), official development aid (ODA), remittances and export earnings) in Egypt as an open developing economy, in the period 1990–2015.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses a vector autoregressive model, which implies examining the impulse response functions and variance decompositions.

Findings

The results indicate that human development is negatively affected by global economic fluctuations through the four channels, namely, ODA, FDI, export earnings and remittances. In addition, the most effective transmission channels are FDI in the short run and export earnings in the long run.

Originality/value

While a large body of literature addresses the direct impact of business cycles and economic shocks on human development, only some studies focus on the indirect impact. The contribution is to identify the indirect impact of global economic fluctuations on human development in a developing economy, considering four transmission channels and to determine the most important of these channels. Moreover, using the human development index is an addition in this paper as most previous literature depends on other human development indicators such as children’s health, employment and schooling.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 8 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 May 2020

Aiza Shabbir, Shazia Kousar and Farzana Kousar

The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of natural resources in economic growth by taking evidence from Pakistan.

31328

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of natural resources in economic growth by taking evidence from Pakistan.

Design/methodology/approach

Total five variables are used in this study, i.e. GDP, population density, water renewable resources, deforestation and the emissions of CO2, based on time series data from 1972 to 2016. The annual data is collected from World Development Indicators, Food and Agriculture Organization and Pakistan Economic Survey. Vector error correction model technique is applied to find out the long-run results.

Findings

Results depict that all variables have a negative and significant relationship over the long run at 5% level of significance. It is observed that 1% increase in population accordingly will degrade GDP by 0.334496%. Correspondingly, 1% increase of water renewable resources will degrade GDP by 0.450647%. Findings are aligning with the study of. Moreover, 1% increase in deforestation will diminish GDP by 0.127821%. If we increase 1% of CO2, GDP will be reduced by 0.802420%.

Research limitations/implications

Results depict that all variables have a negative and significant relationship over the long run at 5% level of significance. It is observed that 1% increase in population accordingly will degrade GDP by 0.334496%. Correspondingly, 1% increase of water renewable resources will degrade GDP by 0.450647%. Findings are aligning with the study of. Moreover, 1% increase in deforestation will diminish GDP by 0.127821%. If we increase 1% of CO2, GDP will be reduced by 0.802420%.

Practical implications

Family planning may be our last hope. Viable and fruitful family planning ought to be introduced. Status of ladies should be brought up in the society by providing education and employment opportunities. Time of marriage ought to be brought up to 25 years in case of males and 23 in case of females; this can help in decreasing the number of births. Having a large population will not automatically translate into economic prosperity. Investment in well-being, education, sound economic policies and good governance will bring about accelerated economic growth.

Originality/value

In recent years, the issue of worldwide water shortage has attracted increasing consideration within scholarly community, non-administrative organizations and the media. Water shortage is a significant and ever-increasing danger to the environment, human well-being, advancement, energy security and the worldwide food supply. This work will introduce real issues and requirements relating to water, environmental changes and their impact on economic growth of Pakistan.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 25 no. 50
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 June 2021

Ibrahim M. Awad, Ghada K. Al-Jerashi and Zaid Ahmad Alabaddi

This empirical paper aims to examine the impact of interest rate (IR) and political instability (POLINS) on Palestine's domestic private investment.

2097

Abstract

Purpose

This empirical paper aims to examine the impact of interest rate (IR) and political instability (POLINS) on Palestine's domestic private investment.

Design/methodology/approach

A set of econometric techniques of time series data are adopted to meet the study objectives. They include regression analysis, unit root tests, cointegration test, ARDL & Bound tests, VAR test and Granger causality test.

Findings

The study's primary results complement the neoclassical approach, which states that the IR is negatively associated with domestic private investment. The empirical results reveal that there is no long-run relationship. Also, there is no causality between domestic investment and lending rates. Accordingly, these findings alert policymakers to draw a series of steps to minimize the IR at a minimum to stimulate investment for improved economic growth and development.

Practical implications

There is still no national currency in Palestine. The Palestinian Monetary Authority (PMA) is advised to set an appropriate ratio of the IR for the currencies-in-circulation in Palestine for boosting investment and economic development.

Originality/value

This paper provides new background information to both policymakers and researchers on the main determinants of investment in Palestine using econometric analysis. Accordingly, this critical issue is required to be examined in Palestine for stimulating investment.

Details

Journal of Business and Socio-economic Development, vol. 1 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2635-1374

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 February 2023

Luca Pugi, Giulio Rosano, Riccardo Viviani, Leonardo Cabrucci and Luca Bocciolini

The purpose of this work is to optimize the monitoring of vibrations on dynamometric test rigs for railway brakes. This is a quite demanding application considering the continuous…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this work is to optimize the monitoring of vibrations on dynamometric test rigs for railway brakes. This is a quite demanding application considering the continuous increase of performances of high-speed trains that involve higher testing specifications for brake pads and disks.

Design/methodology/approach

In this work, authors propose a mixed approach in which relatively simple finite element models are used to support the optimization of a diagnostic system that is used to monitor vibration levels and rotor-dynamical behavior of the machine. The model is calibrated with experimental data recorded on the same rig that must be identified and monitored. The whole process is optimized to not interfere with normal operations of the rig, using common inertial sensor and tools and are available as standard instrumentation for this kind of applications. So at the end all the calibration activities can be performed normally without interrupting the activities of the rig introducing additional costs due to system unavailability.

Findings

Proposed approach was able to identify in a very simple and fast way the vibrational behavior of the investigated rig, also giving precious information concerning the anisotropic behavior of supports and their damping. All these data are quite difficult to be found in technical literature because they are quite sensitive to assembly tolerances and to many other factors. Dynamometric test rigs are an important application widely diffused for both road and rail vehicles. Also proposed procedure can be easily extended and generalized to a wide value of machine with horizontal rotors.

Originality/value

Most of the studies in literature are referred to electrical motors or turbomachines operating with relatively slow transients and constant inertial properties. For investigated machines both these conditions are not verified, making the proposed application quite unusual and original with respect to current application. At the same time, there is a wide variety of special machines that are usually marginally covered by standard testing methodologies to which the proposed approach can be successfully extended.

Details

World Journal of Engineering, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1708-5284

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 August 2019

Pierre Rostan and Alexandra Rostan

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the years the European Muslim population will be majority among 30 European countries.

85991

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the years the European Muslim population will be majority among 30 European countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology/approach is to forecast the population of 30 European countries with wavelet analysis combined with the Burg model which fits a pth order autoregressive model to the input signal by minimizing (least squares) the forward and backward prediction errors while constraining the autoregressive parameters to satisfy the Levinson–Durbin recursion, then relies on an infinite impulse response prediction error filter. Three scenarios are considered: the zero-migration scenario where the authors assume that the Muslim population has a higher fertility (one child more per woman, on average) than other Europeans, mirroring a global pattern; a 2017 migration scenario: to the Muslim population obtained in the zero-migration scenario, the authors add a continuous flow of migrants every year based on year 2017; the mid-point migration scenario is obtained by averaging the data of the two previous scenarios.

Findings

Among three scenarios, the most likely mid-point migration scenario identifies 13 countries where the Muslim population will be majority between years 2085 and 2215: Cyprus (in year 2085), Sweden (2125), France (2135), Greece (2135), Belgium (2140), Bulgaria (2140), Italy (2175), Luxembourg (2175), the UK (2180), Slovenia (2190), Switzerland (2195), Ireland (2200) and Lithuania (2215). The 17 remaining countries will never reach majority in the next 200 years.

Originality/value

The growing Muslim population will change the face of Europe socially, politically and economically. This paper will provide a better insight and understanding of Muslim population dynamics to European governments, policymakers, as well as social and economic planners.

Details

PSU Research Review, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-1747

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 July 2022

Yong Lee and Joon Hee Rhee

This study proposed an optimal model to examine the relationship between the Bitcoin price and six macroeconomic variables – the Bitcoin price, Standard and Poor's 500 volatility…

1783

Abstract

This study proposed an optimal model to examine the relationship between the Bitcoin price and six macroeconomic variables – the Bitcoin price, Standard and Poor's 500 volatility index, US treasury 10-year yield, US consumer price index, gold price and dollar index. It also examined the effectiveness of the vector error correction model (VECM) in analyzing the interrelationship among these variables. The authors employed the following approach: first, the authors sampled the period August 2010–February 2022. This is because Bitcoin achieved a market capitalization of more than US$1 tn over this period, gaining market attention and acceptance from retail, corporate and institutional investors. Second, the authors employed a VECM with the six macroeconomic variables. Finally, the authors expanded the long-run equilibrium relationship (time-invariant cointegration)-based VECM to develop a time-varying cointegration (TVC) VECM. The authors estimated the TVC VECM using the Chebyshev polynomial specification based on various information criteria. The results showed that the Bitcoin price can be modeled with the VECM (p = 1, r = 1). The TVC approach generated more explanatory power for Bitcoin pricing, indicating the effectiveness of the approach for modeling the long-run relationship between Bitcoin price and macroeconomic variables.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. 30 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 September 2022

Dyliane Mouri Silva de Souza and Orleans Silva Martins

This study identified how investor sentiment on Twitter is associated with Brazilian stock market return and trading volume.

1139

Abstract

Purpose

This study identified how investor sentiment on Twitter is associated with Brazilian stock market return and trading volume.

Design/methodology/approach

The study analyzes 314,864 tweets between January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2018, collected with the Tweepy library. The companies’ financial data were obtained from Refinitiv Eikon. Using the netnographic method, a Twitter Investor Sentiment Index (ISI) was constructed based on terms associated with the stocks. This Twitter sentiment was attributed through machine learning using the Google Cloud Natural Language API. The associations between Twitter sentiment and market performance were performed using quantile regressions and vector auto-regression (VAR) models, because the variables of interest are heterogeneous and non-normal, even as relationships can be dynamic.

Findings

In the contemporary period, the ISI is positively correlated with stock market returns, but negatively correlated with trading volume. The autoregressive analysis did not confirm the expectation of a dynamic relationship between sentiment and market variables. The quantile analysis showed that the ISI explains the stock market return, however, only at times of lower returns. It is possible to state that this effect is due to the informational content of the tweets (sentiment), and not to the volume of tweets.

Originality/value

The study presents unprecedented evidence for the Brazilian market that investor sentiment can be identified on Twitter, and that this sentiment can be useful for the formation of an investment strategy, especially in times of lower returns. These findings are original and relevant to market agents, such as investors, managers and regulators, as they can be used to obtain abnormal returns.

Details

Revista de Gestão, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1809-2276

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 February 2018

Mohammad Hassan Shakil, Is’haq Muhammad Mustapha, Mashiyat Tasnia and Buerhan Saiti

The argument whether gold is a hedge or haven is a debatable issue. Mainly, hedge is a class of asset that is negatively correlated with another asset or portfolio on average. On…

5822

Abstract

Purpose

The argument whether gold is a hedge or haven is a debatable issue. Mainly, hedge is a class of asset that is negatively correlated with another asset or portfolio on average. On the other hand, a safe haven is an asset or portfolio which is negatively correlated with another asset or portfolio at the time of market turmoil. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to take Saudi Arabia as an example to examine the relationship of gold price in Saudi Arabia with key determinants such as the stock market index, oil prices, exchange rate, interest rate and consumer price index (CPI) by application of the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL).

Design/methodology/approach

The ARDL analysis was employed by using six variables based on the application of monthly time series data that were collected from 2011 to 2015.

Findings

From the present analysis, it has been discovered that gold is useful as a portfolio hedge and as a hedge against inflation because it is not affected by the CPI. External factors, for example, financial crisis, may be harmful to the CPI, thus adding a certain percentage of gold in the investment portfolio may assist in decreasing the level of risk at the time of financial turmoil.

Originality/value

Because gold seems to be a useful portfolio hedge, as well as an inflation hedge, government policies to curb the import of gold may be futile. The present research suggests that policies that directly address the causes of inflation and provide alternative investment opportunities for retail investors may better serve the objective of decreasing gold imports.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 23 no. 44
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 June 2020

J. Lukas Thürmer, Maik Bieleke, Frank Wieber and Peter M. Gollwitzer

This study aims to take a dual-process perspective and argues that peer influence on increasing impulse buying may also operate automatically. If-then plans, which can automate…

7314

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to take a dual-process perspective and argues that peer influence on increasing impulse buying may also operate automatically. If-then plans, which can automate action control, may, thus, help regulate peer influence. This research extends existing literature explicating the deliberate influence of social norms.

Design/methodology/approach

Study 1 (N = 120) obtained causal evidence that forming an implementation intention (i.e. an if-then plan designed to automate action control) reduces peer impact on impulse buying in a laboratory experiment with young adults (students) selecting food items. Study 2 (N = 686) obtained correlational evidence for the role of norms, automaticity and implementation intentions in impulse buying using a large sample of high-school adolescents working on a vignette about clothes-shopping.

Findings

If-then plans reduced impulse purchases in the laboratory (Study 1). Both reported deliberation on peer norms and the reported automaticity of shopping with peers predicted impulse buying but an implementation intention to be thriftily reduced these links (Study 2).

Research limitations/implications

This research highlights the role of automatic social processes in problematic consumer behaviour. Promising field studies and neuropsychological experiments are discussed.

Practical implications

Young consumers can gain control over automatic peer influence by using if-then plans, thereby reducing impulse buying.

Originality/value

This research helps understand new precursors of impulse buying in understudied European samples of young consumers.

Details

European Journal of Marketing, vol. 54 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0309-0566

Keywords

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