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The purpose of this paper is to present estimates of the maximum potential import leakage effect (decrease in the multipliers) as a result of the U.K.'s joining the E.E.C. The 1970 U.K. input‐output model was used. As a first step the domestic input coefficient matrix was adjusted for changes in the relative price of domestic inputs under the assumption that all import duties on competitive imports from the E.E.C. were eliminated. Considerable variation in the ranking of each endogenous sector according to its leakage coefficient for output, income, and employment was found.

The entry into force of the EU-CARIFORUM Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) marks the beginning of a new era of trade relations, from preferential treatment to reciprocity, between the member states of the European Union (EU) and the Caribbean Forum (CARIFORUM) of African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) states. In light of the controversy regarding the impact of the agreement, an assessment is made on the static welfare impact it is likely to generate on consumers in Guyana.

The assessment is done through the application of a partial equilibrium model to the 2008 import and tariff data of Guyana. The model captures the static welfare effect that will be occasioned by a change in tariff on imports.

The study finds that there will be a static net welfare loss to the tune of US$31.01 million or 2.2 percent of Guyana's GDP obtained for 2008. The loss is due to a large trade diversion effect which is the product of the fact that over the years Guyana imported little from the EU relative to the rest of the world minus CARIFORUM sources.

Unlike its forerunner, the import data used in this study is for the year immediately before the entering into force of the EU-CARIFORUM EPA and reflects the exact amount of imports that will be liberalized by Guyana. In addition, the study is broader in scope as it focusses on the EU-27, which is the exact number of EU member states with whom Guyana has signed the aforementioned agreement. Subject to its exactness, the study is better positioned in having its findings be used as a yardstick, given the periodic mandatory review of the EU-CARIFORUM EPA.

This article presents a general equilibrium model capable of assessing the impact of foreign price shocks on the real side of the oil‐based developing economies. The theoretical model departs from previous work in this area at least in that (1) the model takes into account endogenous income and price responses in all sectors of the economy; (2) it has two traded goods (exports and imports) and a non‐traded good; (3) it explicitly addresses the inherent open and small economic nature of developing countries; and (4) besides adjustments in the endogenous domestic prices, the model also allows for other structural adjustments. As such, the model combines the neoclassical macro theory with the structural micro approach. Empirical evidence deduced from an important oil‐based developing economy (Saudi Arabia) appears quite consistent with the model theoretical implications.

The purpose is to market a reinterpretation of Brazilian economic history highlighting the importance of non-tradable goods to understand major historical developments such as the lack of industrialization in the mining boom; the rise and contribution of industries to development in the early 20th century; indexation as hyperinflation in the late 20th century; growth and cycles in the early 21st century.

Section 2 introduces analytical perspectives on the relationship between non-tradables, transport costs and external shocks. Section 3 presents a historical overview of the gold and coffee cycles in the Brazilian economy, which highlights the crucial role played by transport costs in the genesis of industrialization. Thus, in a more precise way, industrialization was not an import substitution process but the substitution of non-tradables by the domestic tradable manufactures.

Section 4 shows that Brazilian statistical records and historiography disregard this characterization and, to that extent, underestimate economic growth in the primary export phase (1872–1920) and overestimate growth rates in the industrialization period (1920–1940). Section 5 shifts to the end of the 20th century to analyze the relationship between non-tradables, indexation and hyperinflation. Section 6 concludes with a brief discussion of the role played by the terms of trade and non-tradables in the unfolding of the 2014 economic crisis.

Distance from international markets and a continental geographic size made transport costs in Brazil historically prohibitive: the relevance of non-tradables in the Brazilian economic history. While the theme is not new, it seldom received proper attention in the historiography.

The purpose of this paper is to quantify and analyze the relative impact of agriculture Trade liberalization and South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) over the global economic welfare. The objectives are to analyze and quantify the potential economic cost and benefits of the prospective trade between India and Pakistan to consumers, producers and government of the two countries by analyzing the potential economic costs and benefits of Pak‐India trade in exporting various consumer goods.

The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database is the database for the GTAP model of the world economy, which is publicly available. The main data source for this model is “The GTAP 4 Data Base” which is easy to adapt to appropriate sectoral and regional aggregations that allow one to focus on specific policy questions. The regional databases in the model are derived from individual country input‐output (I/O) tables that provide information about the individual regional economies in the model. The bilateral trade data are primarily derived from the United Nations Commodity Trade database. The economic research service (ERS) of the United States Department of Agriculture supplies the missing information in the UN trade data.

The first scenario is when normal trading relations with India will be restored; it means that each country will give the most‐favored‐nations (MFN) status to the other. In the second scenario, the SAFTA will be operative, and there will be free trade between India and Pakistan, and both countries will remove all tariffs and custom duties from each other's imports. The GTAP model is used to analyze the possible impact of SAFTA on Pakistan in a multi‐country, multi‐sector applied general equilibrium framework.

The analysis based on simulations reveals that current demand for Pakistani consumer items will expand after the free trade agreement (FTA) and consumer surplus will increase. The export of consumer items may be conducted by two scenarios, i.e. when normal trading relations between Pakistan and India will be restored and when there will be a free trade between Pakistan and India in the presence of SAFTA. Results based on this research reveal that, on SAFTA grounds, there will be net export benefits in Pakistan's economy.

The assignment of targets to instruments in developing countries cannot satisfactorily follow any simple universal rule. Which approach is appropriate is influenced by whether the economy is dominated by primary exports, by the importance of the domestic bond market and bank credit, by the extent of existing restriction in foreign exchange and financial markets, by the presence or absence of persistent high inflation, and by the existence or non‐existence of an active international market in the country's currency. Eighteen observations and maxims on stabilisation policy are tentatively drawn (pp. 64–8) from the material reviewed, and the maxims are partly summarised (pp. 69–71) in a schematic assignment, with variations, of targets to instruments.

This study aims to examine the effect of trade liberalization on welfare, directly or indirectly, through the productivity of the agricultural sector and the productivity of the industrial sector, which affects economic growth and the welfare of the community.

This study is explanatory as it looks at causal relationships between one variable with another (causality relationship). The data used in this study are secondary data from various sources, such as the International Financial Statistics (IFS) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, Bank Indonesia reports, Central Bureau of Statistics and several other sources. All data used in this study is annual data for each research variable from 1986 to 2016.

Based on the results of the analysis, there is a significant direct and negative influence of the agricultural sector productivity on economic growth, a significant direct and negative influence of the industrial sector productivity on economic growth.

Considering the diverse effects of trade liberalization both on economic growth and people's welfare in developing countries, the researcher was interested in knowing how trade liberalization affects Indonesia. This study tries to observe and analyze those relations.

The aim of this paper is to learn about some patterns of sectoral and industrial structural change of the Chinese economy over the 1995-2010 period, which also complements a previous paper of the author. The chosen period is about (and conveniently) bounded by two international crises: the Southeast Asian crisis of 1997 and the world crisis that started in 2007/2008.

To such a purpose, this paper set up a quantitative methodology via input-output modelling, which allows us to decompose gross output into some key demand sources or contributions. These are then analyzed over the full period.

It can be shown that the trajectory of the main structural patterns over the period was not smooth and was pretty unbalanced and that they generally responded to both domestic policy and international shocks. Export demand and heavy industry appeared to be the main engines of the economy, which showed massive increases in their share of output, at the expense of domestic demand, services and agriculture. Despite the high growth rates over this period, the Chinese economy seemed to be in need of rebalancing, which seems to have started toward the end of the authors’ period.

The decomposition method has been applied before by the author and others, but the variations in this paper are original, just as original is the application to China (never been done before), which in addition is not confined to two or so snapshots separated by many years, as is the usual use, but to the full year-after-year change of the sectoral and industrial structure over this study’s focus period.

This article evaluates contemporary Cuban economic policy and development prospects after a decade of market experimentation in a socialist context. An introductory historical review assesses the successes and failures of Cuban development policy in the 1970s and 1980s and describes the staggering dimensions of the economic crisis triggered by the abrupt disruption of Cuba's relations with the Soviet bloc in 1989–1991. The next section, “To the market in the 1990s,” examines Cuban efforts to stabilize the economy in the early 1990s while maintaining a strong social safety net. The historic policy shift toward limited market liberalization within a state-dominated economy is analyzed and the key market concessions described. The economic turnaround of the late 1990s and Cuban macroeconomic and industrial performance over the past decade are then examined. The final part of the article evaluates the coherence and sustainability of Cuba's emerging economic model and assesses prospects for the survival of some form of Cuban socialism.

The purpose of the study is to develop a macroeconometric model for evaluation of trade policies and forecasting of trade performance of Pakistan with different regions or group of countries.

These regions or group of countries are Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the rest of the world. A macroeconometric model containing 15 behavioral equations and eight identities.

Cointegration results suggest that there exist long-run relationships among variables of all behavioral equations. Additionally, results of different policy shocks based on unit value of export (export price), unit value of import (import price), exchange rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate and foreign exchange reserve suggest that the model is useful for economic planning to sustain growth performance of Pakistan.

In this study, the authors develop for the first time ever a macroeconometric model for the evaluation and forecasting of regional trade policy and performance for Pakistan.