Search results

Peace on Earth has often been elusive, with more times on Earth spent at war rather than peace. This paper examines the nature of peace with its antithesis of war, focussing on the impact of war on the planet, which is not a primary consideration when war is waged. War leaves negative planetary legacies, which are of major concerns in times of population growth whilst living on a finite planet. Who should be responsible for planetary impact of war is considered, with some focus on government and other organisations. Collaborative strategies for caring for the planet through guidelines and level of departments of defence and national law-making organisations at national levels are discussed, as well as overviewing the focus and role of the United Nations and the associated Sustainability Goals. The paper concludes by suggesting that a more powerful way to influence us in our responsibilities to live peacefully, rather than a virtuous ‘should not’ approach, is the need to shift back to a moral positioning in our perspectives as humans being part of the ecosystem, so that we view ourselves as being at one with all life. In this perspective, if we incur harm to this planet, we are harming ourselves. Suggestions for living in a more peaceful way are drawn from indigenous wisdom and spiritual teachers, particularly the current Pope Francis.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the Yemen War on banking services (deposits and loans) at the aggregate and at the level of conventional and Islamic banks in GCC countries. The author also tests hypotheses of direct and indirect impacts of the Yemen War on bank services.

The sample comprises a total of 70 banks (45 conventional and 25 Islamic banks) over the period 2000–2018. The static and dynamic panel generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimation techniques are applied.

Empirical results indicate that the Yemen War has a significant negative direct impact on deposits and loans of GCC banks. The results lend support for the direct channel hypothesis, but not for the indirect channel hypothesis. The negative direct impact is most prominent on banks in GCC countries that are directly involved in the Yemen War, although the war has an asymmetric effect on conventional and Islamic banks, the former being more vulnerable. The overall conclusion is that the Yemen War exerts an asymmetric impact on the GCC region, across both banks and countries.

These results are a warning to policymakers to be cautious when formulating a strategy for macroeconomic stability.

It is widely recognized that the Yemen War has a significant impact on the economies of the GCC countries. However, the possible impact of the war on GCC bank services has not so far been subjected to robust empirical analysis. This paper therefore seeks to fill this gap by providing an in-depth quantitative analysis of this impact. It distinguishes between direct and indirect channels through which the Yemen War may affect bank services. It is also the first to examine the asymmetric impact of the Yemen War on the GCC region, across both banks (Islamic and conventional banks) and countries (whether or not involved in the war). The study uses both static panel and dynamic panel GMM estimation techniques to analyze the data.

India is not geographically close to either Russia or Ukraine. However, India's trade relations with them make it vulnerable to the consequences of the war between these countries. Thus, the present study aims to examine the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on various sectoral indices of the Indian economy.

Event study methodology has been used in this study for analysis. The date of the war announcement is the event day. The sample studied includes ten sectors of the Indian economy listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Results correspond to the period of −167 days to +20 days of the announcement of the war, i.e. from June 25, 2021, to March 28, 2022.

Almost all the sample sectors earned significantly positive abnormal returns in the post-event period. The metal industry has led this group by showcasing the highest abnormal returns. Though Indian sectors made overall positive returns, the market soon corrected itself and abnormal returns were wiped out.

These results can benefit portfolio managers, analysts, investors and policymakers in hedging risks and selecting suitable investments during increased global uncertainty. The study's conclusions help policymakers establish an institutional and supervisory framework that will make it easier to spot systematic risks and reduce them by putting countercyclical measures in place.

India has no geographical proximity or trade relations with Russia or Ukraine, as strong as any other European country. However, Russia has remained a strong ally to India in the trade of defense equipment. Similar is the case with Ukraine, a significant global partner for India. Thus, the impact of conflict between these two countries has not been limited to Europe only but has also engulfed related economies. Hence, the present study is one of the first attempts to examine the burns sustained by the Indian economy due to this war.

This study aims to examine the impact of the beginning of the Russia–Ukraine war and the Wagner Group’s attempted military coup against Putin’s regime on the European defense sector, consisting of weapons manufacturers.

The authors use the event study methodology to quantify the impact. That is, the authors assume that markets are efficient, and abnormal stock returns around the event dates capture the magnitudes of the impacts of the two events studied on European defense sector companies. The authors use the capital asset pricing model and two different multifactor models to estimate expected stock returns, which serve as the benchmark necessary to obtain abnormal returns.

The start of the war on February 24, 2022, when the Russian forces invaded Ukraine, was followed by high positive abnormal returns of up to 12% in the next few days. The results are particularly strong if multiple factors are used to control for the risk of the defense stocks. Conversely, the authors find a negative impact of the rebellion initiated by the mercenary Wagner Group’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on June 23, 2023, on the abnormal returns of defense industry stocks on the first trading day after the event.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study of the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the defense sector. Furthermore, this is the first study to measure the financial implications of the military coup initiated by the Wagner Group. The findings contribute to a rapidly growing literature on the financial implications of military conflicts around the world.

The purpose of this paper is to study the market reactions of the banking industry to the Russian–Ukraine war.

This paper uses an event study methodology, regression analyses and interaction effects to study the effect of the war on banks stock prices and analyze factors that explain the cumulative abnormal return.

First, this study finds a significant decline of almost 1.5% in return on the war date. Similar patterns were observed for all continents, but Europe had the most severe drop of about 4%. Second, after excluding the contemporaneous influence of the whole market using the market model, global bank equities returns fell by about 1% on the war date, indicating that bank stocks were more severely impacted by the war than the average stock market. Net-of-market return approach further reveals that bank stock prices decreased 1.4% more on the event day compared to the prewar market average. Third, the impacts of the war and sanctions were persistent when the war continued. Banks stocks were most hit in Europe, Asia and North America.

This paper pioneers the study of the effect of the Russia–Ukraine war on the banking industry. This paper also analyzes the reaction pattern of bank stocks before, during and after the war to explain the behavior and expectations of investors toward the war.

This study examined the impact of war/conflict-related news on the Russian and Ukrainian stock markets in the build-up and beginning of the war that sparked in the year 2022.

In order to examine the impact of war-related news on stock returns, data were gathered from the United States (US) and Russian stock indices, oil price and volatile index (VIX) from Yahoo.finance; Ukrainian stock values from pfts.ua website and daily related news retrieved from nexis.com were analysed. The data were gathered from January 1, 2022 to February 24, 2022. Seeming unrealated regressions (SUR) and exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) models were carried out to determine the formulated correlations. This study controlled the oil price, US stock returns, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) VIX and difference in stock returns of Russia and Ukraine.

The results are presented two-fold: first, war-related news between the two countries enhanced volatility and caused a significant decline in the stock market indices for both countries. Second, the Russian stock market faced a steeper decline in the build-up and the actual beginning of the war than the Ukrainian stock market. Notably, the Russian markets feared the adverse economic consequences that stemmed from the sanctions the US and the Western world imposed.

As this study was based on early evidence, future studies with a longer window may provide better insights. This present study is restricted to the stock returns of the countries directly involved in the build-up towards war. Studies focusing on the impact of other asset classes, currencies, commodities and global stock markets might offer holistic insights.

The study outcomes suggest that global portfolio investors should stay away from stock markets of the war-raged countries and equity markets in general, but instead look for safe-haven assets.

The paper evaluates stock markets' performance during the pre-war period, considering the context of this historical war between the neighbours. It is important to understand this issue as this war is subject to sanctions by the US and leads to a global supply chain crisis.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the market response of the aerospace and defense industry and the airline industry to the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia based on the sentiments from war-related news articles over the period from October 2021 to June 2022.

The study uses the news article database of Global Database of Events, Languages and Tone (GDELT) to create a new set of variables that reflect the news sentiment regarding war and conflict. By investigating the newly created sentiment variables in combination with traditional event study methodology, the authors seek to find out whether sentiment indicators can be helpful to rationalize the evolution of the different stock markets before and after the conflict.

The authors' results point out a significant negative impact of the war on the airline market and a positive impact on the defense market. The authors' study also introduces a new set of war-related news-based sentiment variables that is significant to explain the evolution of the two markets before and after the war. The relationships between this study's new set of variables and the performance of the two markets are also proven to be significantly impacted by the invasion.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first research to use the news sentiment related to the topic of war and conflict to explain the market movement of different industries during the Ukraine invasion.

This study aims to find the impact of the trade war between the USA and China on Asian economies. Apart from macroeconomic variables associated with trade, this study explicitly creates a trade war scenario and trade war participant dummies. Using the neural network multilayer perceptron, this study checks for the causal linkages between the predictors and target output for the panel of Asian economies and the USA.

A conceptual model of the after effects of trade war in a quadrant is developed. Variables related to trade and tariffs are included in the study for a panel of 19 Asian economies. The feedforward structure of neural network analysis is used to identify strong and weak predictors of trade war.

The hidden layers of the multilayer perceptron reveal the inconsistency in linkages for the predictors’ services exports, tariff measures, anti-dumping measures, trade war scenario dummy with gross domestic product. The findings suggest that to curtail the impact of the trade war on Asian economies, predictors with neural evidence must be paid due weightage in policy determination and trade agreements.

The study applies a novel and little explored AI/ML technique of Neural Network analysis with training of 70% observations. The paper will provide opportunity for other researchers to explore techniques of AI/ML in trade studies.

The study of war has generally been neglected in sociology, with much of the discussion focusing around military spending or the organization of the military rather than war per se. Sociologists have critiqued and investigated the military-industrial complex (Mills, 1959), investigated morale in military units (Durkheim, 1951; Stouffer & DeVinney, 1955), and studied the socialization of soldiers (Cockerham & Cohen, 1980). However, the direct examination of war has been relatively rare. When war has been examined, sociological research has focused on the causes of war, often discussing the preconditions of revolutions (Goldstone, Gurr & Moshiri, 1991; Skopol, 1979), or the reasons for military interventions by core countries in the peripheral countries of the world system (Kowalewski, 1991). Examinations of the sociological impact of war on civilian populations have been even rarer.

This paper attempts to investigate the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the returns and volatility of the United States (US) natural gas futures market.

The study uses secondary data of 996 trading day provided by the US Department of Energy and investing.com websites and applies the event study methodology in addition to the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) family models.

The findings from the exponential EGARCH (1,1) estimate are the best indication of a significant positive effects of the Ukraine–Russia war on the returns and volatility of the US natural gas futures prices. The cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of the event study show that the natural gas futures prices reacted negatively but not significantly to the Russian–Ukraine war at the event date window [−1,1] and the [−15, −4] event window. CARs for the longer pre and post-event window display significant positive values and coincides with the standard finance theory for the case of the US natural gas futures over the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

This is the first study to examine the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on natural gas futures prices in the United States. Thus, it provides indications on the behavior of investors in this market and proposes new empirical evidence that help in investment analyses and decisions.