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In this paper, we examine the concept of “vulnerability” within the context of income mobility of the poor. We test for the dynamics of vulnerable households in the UK using waves 1–12 of the British Household Panel Survey and find that, of three different types of risks that we test for, household-specific shocks and economy-wide aggregate shocks have the greatest impact on consumption, in comparison to shocks to the income stream.

This study undertakes a comprehensive investigation into the far-reaching repercussions of Covid-19 stimulus packages and containment policies on stock returns, meticulously examining a diverse array of 14 distinct markets.

This study employed the Panel SVAR model to analyze the relationships between various policies and stock market performance during the Covid-19 outbreak. The sample comprises 5432 daily observations spanning from December 2020 to January 2022 for the 14 selected markets, with missing data excluded.

The findings reveal three consistent impacts across all 14 markets. Firstly, stock returns immediately reversed and decreased within a day when Governments tightened containment policies. Secondly, economic stimulus packages led to a fall in stock returns. Thirdly, an increasing death rate caused the stock return to decrease in the following two days. These findings are supported by the uniform impulse responses in all three shocks, including common, composite and idiosyncratic shocks. Furthermore, all inverse root tests satisfy the stability conditions, indicating the stability and reliability of Panel SVAR estimations.

One vital implication is that all government decisions and measures taken against the shock of Covid-19 must consider economic impacts to avoid unnecessary financial losses and support the effective functioning of stock markets during similar shocks. Secondly, investors should view the decline in stock returns due to Covid-19 effects as temporary, resulting from anxiety about the outbreak. The study highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of policies on financial markets and the broader economy during crises. Overall, these insights can prove helpful for investment decisions and policymaking during future crises.

This study constitutes a noteworthy addition to the literature on behavioural finance and the efficient market hypothesis, offering a meticulous analysis of the multifaceted repercussions of Covid-19 on market interactions. In particular, it unveils the magnitude, duration and intricate patterns of market volatilities linked to significant shock events, encompassing a comprehensive dataset spanning 14 distinct markets.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of illness-driven agriculture income shocks on remittance payments in Ghana using a nationally representative household pseudo-panel data set for 1991/1992, 1998/1999 and 2005/2006.

The two-stage least square instrumental variable technique is used. This is compared with the ordinary least squares estimator.

The author finds that households in Ghana use remittances to protect themselves from negative agriculture income shocks. The study further reveals that the protection is resilient in female-headed households.

The question of remittances as a safety net mechanism is interesting, but the limitation is the challenges involving the counterfactual setup in studying the effects of endogenous migration choices.

The study provides that, as far as microeconomic factors are concerned, remittances increase in times of negative agriculture income shocks attributed to illness in Ghana.

The finding points to the fact that remittance payments play an essential role as an informal safety net during illness-driven agriculture income shock especially for female-headed households in Ghana. This has an important implication for poverty reduction in Ghana.

It provides an empirical test of the claim that remittance flows buffer idiosyncratic shock with micro-level household data that incorporates both internal and international remittances. The paper introduces gender dimension into idiosyncratic shocks’ impact. Also, the data set makes it possible to provide a reliable set of agriculture income shock estimates.

Deposit insurance is a key element in modern banking, as it guarantees the financial safety of deposits at depository financial institutions. It is necessary to have at least a dual fair premium rate system based on creditworthiness of financial institutions, as considering singular premium system for all banks will have moral hazard. This paper aims to develop theoretical and empirical model for calculating dual fair premium rates.

The definition of a fair premium rate in this paper is a rate that covers the operational expenditures of the deposit insuring organization, provides it with sufficient funds to enable it to pay a certain percentage share of deposit amounts to depositors in case of bank default and provides it with sufficient funds as precautionary reserves. To identify and classify healthier and more stable banks, the authors use credit rating methods that use two major dimensional reduction techniques. For forecasting nonperforming loans (NPLs), the authors develop a model that can capture both macro shocks and idiosyncratic shocks to financial institutions in a vector error correction model.

The response of NPLs/loans to macro shocks and idiosyncratic innovations shows that using a model with macro variables only is insufficient, as it is possible that under favorable economic conditions, some banks show negative performance due to bank level reasons such as mismanagement or vice versa. The final results show that deposit insurance premium rate needs to be vary based on banks’ creditworthiness.

The results provide interesting insight for financial authorities to set fair deposit insurance premium rate. A high premium rate reduces the capital adequacy of individual financial institutions, which endangers the stability of the financial system; a low premium rate will reduce the security of the financial system.

This paper examines household and community characteristics that influence the entry of rural households into non-farm entrepreneurship and investigates the various factors that influence the market exit of non-farm enterprises (NFEs).

The authors use data from three rounds (2011/12, 2013/14 and 2015/16) of the World Bank’s Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). The authors employ panel logit and multilevel logit models to examine the probability of opening one or more enterprises and the enterprise exit rates.

Results indicate that the likelihood of starting a NFE is positively associated with primary education attainment, access to credit, experiencing idiosyncratic shocks and availability of formal financial institutions. Age, higher education attainment and rising farm input prices constrain entry into non-farm entrepreneurship. The enterprise exit rate is negatively associated with small-town residence, wealth, access to tar/gravel roads and cellphone communication.

Policymakers and administrators should strive to address the challenges that communities face in transportation, communication and financial services. Policies aimed at stabilizing prices and increasing access to mobile communication, primary education and road infrastructure could help expand the rural non-farm sector.

Previous studies primarily examined the determinants of participation in NFEs at a given time using cross-sectional data. The current study uses panel data to study the dynamics of NFE ownership by investigating households’ decisions to enter into or exit from the sector.

The peer review history for this article is available at https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-09-2022-0611

In this paper, I examine the concept of ‘vulnerability’ within the context of income mobility of the poor. While the concept of poverty is well developed, the concept of vulnerability is less established in the economic literature. I test for the dynamics of vulnerable households in the United Kingdom using Waves 1–12 of the British Household Panel Survey and find that, of three different types of risks for which I test, household-specific shocks and economy-wide aggregate shocks have the greatest impact on consumption, in comparison to shocks to the income stream. I find vulnerable households up to at least 10 percentile points above the poverty line. Savings and earnings from a second job are not significantly associated with smoothing consumption of all vulnerable households. The results strongly indicate that income transfers and benefits assist the vulnerable in smoothing consumption. Thus, traditional poverty alleviating policies are not likely to assist the vulnerable.

From the standpoint of a policy maker who has access to a number of expert forecasts, the uncertainty of a combined or ensemble forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. This uncertainty formula should incorporate forecaster discord, as justified by (i) disagreement as a component of combined forecast uncertainty, (ii) the model averaging literature, and (iii) central banks’ communication of uncertainty via fan charts. Using new statistics to test for the homogeneity of idiosyncratic errors under the joint limits with both T and n approaching infinity simultaneously, the authors find that some previously used measures can significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty.

The purpose of this paper is to present the methods and findings of an experimental game designed to extend the concept of index‐based livestock insurance in northern Kenya, and analyze patterns of game play. The paper is designed to inform others who may be attempting something similar to this work in other developing country agricultural settings.

The paper presents the following: descriptive context of the issue, explanation of the game design to match the conditions in the area, details of how the authors explained the game, and regression analysis of play by participants.

Games designed to reflect key elements of the local production system can be an effective way of explaining financial products to rural producers in developing countries.

It remains to be seen if the extension effort leads to more informed consumers of insurance products, which the authors hope to address in future work. Also, the approach described in this paper is very labor intensive, which could limit use in a wide ranging extension program.

The authors were able to explain the idea to groups that were mixed: female and male. It will be interesting to see if there are any gender dimensions to insurance use. In addition, with competing claims to livestock with complex property rights, there is a need to monitor how insurance interacts with social ideas of livestock ownership.

This is a completely new idea in the area of arid and semi‐arid livestock production, the challenge is pronounced, and as insurance becomes more important in the development economics toolkit, the authors believe others can benefit from seeing what they have done.

The credit ratings issued by the Big 3 ratings agencies are inaccurate and slow to respond to market changes. This paper aims to develop a rigorous, transparent and robust credit assessment and rating scheme for sovereigns.

This paper develops a regression-based model using credit default swap (CDS) data, and data on financial and macroeconomic variables to estimate sovereign CDS spreads. Using these spreads, the default probabilities of sovereigns can be estimated. The new ratings scheme is then used in conjunction with these default probabilities to assign credit ratings to sovereigns.

The developed model accurately estimates CDS spreads (based on RMSE values). Credit ratings issued retrospectively using the new scheme reflect reality better.

This paper reveals that both macroeconomic and financial factors affect both systemic and idiosyncratic risks for sovereigns.

The developed credit assessment and ratings scheme can be used to evaluate the creditworthiness of sovereigns and subsequently assign robust credit ratings.

The transparency and rigor of the new scheme will result in better and trustworthy indications of a sovereign’s financial health. Investors and monetary authorities can make better informed decisions. The episodes that occurred during the debt crisis could be avoided.

This paper uses both financial and macroeconomic data to estimate CDS spreads and demonstrates that both financial and macroeconomic factors affect sovereign systemic and idiosyncratic risk. The proposed credit assessment and ratings schemes could supplement or potentially replace the credit ratings issued by the Big 3 ratings agencies.