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The purpose of this study is to explore the possible impact of banking market structure on the idiosyncratic risk of financially dependent firms in China.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to explore the possible impact of banking market structure on the idiosyncratic risk of financially dependent firms in China.
Design/methodology/approach
The study analyzes firm-level data for China from 1999 to 2018 using a two-step dynamic panel system generalized method of moments (GMM).
Findings
The findings imply that bank competition lowers corporate risk, particularly among firms that are highly dependent on external funding for their financing needs. The findings are consistent with alternative indicators of competition, corporate risk, and financial dependence. The analysis of the transmission mechanism – the channel through which competition affects corporate risk – reveals that bank competition reduces corporate risk by curtailing financing constraints faced by firms.
Research limitations/implications
The competition-enhancing policy should consider the optimum level of bank competition for financial and economic stability. Further research is necessary to define the “desirable” or “optimum” level of bank competition.
Practical implications
In China, where the banking sector is still highly concentrated, the findings of this study call for policies aimed at encouraging healthy competition among banks. Nevertheless, such a policy must also consider the extent of bank competition that is optimal for the economy, particularly for financial and economic stability.
Originality/value
The paper provides the first evidence of the possible linkage between bank competition and corporate risk in China.
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Sudip Datta, Mai Iskandar-Datta and Vivek Singh
The purpose of this paper is to add an important new dimension to the earnings management literature by establishing a link between idiosyncratic risk and the degree of accrual…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to add an important new dimension to the earnings management literature by establishing a link between idiosyncratic risk and the degree of accrual management.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on a comprehensive sample of 44,599 firm-year observations during the period spanning 1987-2009, the study offers robust empirical evidence of the importance of firm-specific idiosyncratic volatility as a determinant of earnings manipulation. The authors use standard measures of earnings management and idiosyncratic volatility. The authors test the hypotheses with robust econometrics techniques.
Findings
The authors document a strong positive relationship between idiosyncratic risk and accruals management. Further, the authors find a positive association between residual volatility and discretionary accruals whether accruals are income inflationary or income deflationary. The findings are robust to alternate idiosyncratic risk proxies and variables associated with earnings management.
Originality/value
Overall, the knowledge derived from this study provides additional tools to assess the degree of earnings management by firms, and hence the quality of the financial reporting. Thus the findings will enable standard setters, financial market regulators, analysts, and investors to make more informed legislative, regulatory, resource allocation, and investment decisions.
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This study documents that high book‐to‐market (value) and low book‐to‐market (glamour) stock prices react asymmetrically to both common and firm‐specific information…
Abstract
This study documents that high book‐to‐market (value) and low book‐to‐market (glamour) stock prices react asymmetrically to both common and firm‐specific information. Specifically, we find that value stock prices exhibit a considerably slow adjustment to both common and firm‐specific information relative to glamour stocks. The results show that this pattern of diferential price adjustment between value and glamour stocks is mainly driven by the high arbitrage risk borne by value stocks. The evidence is consistent with the arbitrage risk hypothesis, predicting that idiosyncratic risk, a major impediment to arbitrage activity, amplifies the informational loss of value stocks as a result of arbitrageurs’ (informed investors) reduced participation in value stocks because of their inability to fully hedge idiosyncratic risk.
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This paper aims to examine the association between earnings quality and firm-specific return volatility for a large sample of Japanese manufacturing firms.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the association between earnings quality and firm-specific return volatility for a large sample of Japanese manufacturing firms.
Design/methodology/approach
This archival research uses idiosyncratic volatility and asynchronicity as two analogous proxies for firm-specific return volatility to investigate its association with earnings quality.
Findings
Using idiosyncratic volatility and asynchronicity as two comparable proxies for firm-specific return volatility, the author finds contradictory results. The author relates this contradiction to another debate in accounting and finance literature about whether firm-specific return volatility captures firm-specific information or noise. Initially, the author obtains conflicting results because the systematic risk, one of the components of asynchronicity, is highly correlated with earnings quality. After controlling for the systematic risk, the author finds that higher earnings quality is associated with lower firm-specific return volatility. This finding is consistent with the noise-based explanation of firm-specific return volatility. The author also separates earnings quality into an innate component driven by economic fundamentals and a discretionary component driven by managerial discretionary behavior and finds that both components have significant impact on firm-specific return volatility but the innate component has significantly stronger effect than the discretionary component.
Originality/value
This is the first research study presenting evidence on the association between earnings quality and firm-specific return volatility in the Japanese setting. The findings of this paper are likely to contribute to the resolution of a well-known debate on whether firm-specific return volatility captures more firm-specific information being impounded in stock prices or noise in stock prices.
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Rupika Khanna, Chandan Sharma and Abhay Pant
This paper provides new evidence on Indian tourism firms by investigating the role of a firm's financial conditions typified by its leverage, earnings, size, cash holdings, and…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper provides new evidence on Indian tourism firms by investigating the role of a firm's financial conditions typified by its leverage, earnings, size, cash holdings, and excess cash in moderating the pandemic-led idiosyncratic volatility in its stock prices.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ a firm-level panel comprising 82 publicly-listed tourism firms from India. Firm risk is estimated for the period beginning January 2020 to December 2020.
Findings
This paper finds non-linear effects of the pandemic on the idiosyncratic risk of the sample firms. Precisely, stock price volatility rises, but as the market absorbs this information, volatility subsides even as the disease spreads further. Further, lower levels of past debt and earnings and higher cash holdings ameliorate the pandemic's effects on tourism firms' risk. Contrasting the view that “excess” cash reflects poor operational performance, we show that “excess” cash firms are better prepared to face the adverse effects of the pandemic.
Research limitations/implications
This study’s sample period fully encompasses the first wave of the pandemic (January–December 2020) of the novel coronavirus infection spread.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to assess the moderating effects of company fundamentals on the risk of Indian tourism firms. In doing so, the authors account for non-linear effects of the pandemic on firms' idiosyncratic volatility over time.
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Jungmu Kim, Changjun Lee, Woo-Hyuk Lee, Youngkyung Ok and Thuy Thi Thu Truong
The authors aim to understand the driving forces behind the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle in the Korean stock market. The authors study the Korean stock market because previous…
Abstract
Purpose
The authors aim to understand the driving forces behind the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle in the Korean stock market. The authors study the Korean stock market because previous works report a strong idiosyncratic volatility puzzle in Korea, and the market for the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) including low volatility ETFs has experienced drastic growth in Korea.
Design/methodology/approach
Using common stocks listed either on KOSPI or KOSDAQ over the period 1997–2016, the authors estimate idiosyncratic volatility using the Fama–French three-factor model. In addition, based on prior literature, the authors use turnover as a proxy for overvaluation. The authors then study the role of turnover in understanding the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle in Korea.
Findings
The authors find that turnover is highly associated with idiosyncratic volatility. Turnover is extremely large among firms with high idiosyncratic volatility and the puzzle disappears after we control for turnover, meaning that turnover subsumes the explanatory power of idiosyncratic volatility for equity returns. The authors also find underperformance of stocks with high turnover and high idiosyncratic volatility exclusively during earnings announcement periods. Overall, our finding implies that the puzzle arises since high idiosyncratic volatility stocks due to high turnover are overvalued and experience correction afterwards.
Originality/value
Literature has suggested explanations based on lottery preferences of investors and market frictions behind the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle. What makes our study distinct from previous work is that we find the role of turnover in understanding the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle using turnover measure as a proxy for overvaluation in the Korean stock market.
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This study is the first to examine the role of idiosyncratic risk in the pricing of European real estate equities. The capital asset pricing model predicts that in equilibrium…
Abstract
Purpose
This study is the first to examine the role of idiosyncratic risk in the pricing of European real estate equities. The capital asset pricing model predicts that in equilibrium, investors should hold the market portfolio. As a result, investors should only be rewarded for carrying undiversifiable systematic risk and not for diversifiable idiosyncratic risk. The study is adding to the growing body of countering studies by first examining time trends of idiosyncratic risk and subsequently the pricing of idiosyncratic risk in European real estate equities. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
The study analyses 293 real estate equities from 16 European capital markets over the 1991-2011 period. The framework of Fama and MacBeth is employed. Regressions of the cross-section of expected equity excess returns on idiosyncratic risk and other firm characteristics such as beta, size, book-to-market equity (BE/ME), momentum, liquidity and co-skewness are performed. Due to recent evidence on the conditional pricing of European real estate equities, the pricing is also investigated using the conditional framework of Pettengill et al. Either realised or expected idiosyncratic volatility forecasted using a set of exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models are employed.
Findings
The initial analysis of time trends in idiosyncratic risk reveals that while the early 1990s are characterised by both high total and idiosyncratic volatility, a strong downward trend emerged in 1992 which was only interrupted by the burst of the dotcom bubble and the 9/11 attacks along with the global financial and economic crisis. The largest part of total volatility is idiosyncratic and therefore firm-specific in nature. Simple cross-correlations indicate that high beta, small size, high BE/ME, low momentum, low liquidity and high co-skewness equities have higher idiosyncratic risk. While size and BE/ME are priced unconditionally from 1991 to 2011, both measures of idiosyncratic risk fail to achieve significance at reasonable levels. However, once conditioned on the general equity market or real estate equity market, a strong positive relationship between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns emerges in up-markets, while the opposite relationship exists in down-markets. The relationship is robust to firm-specific factors and a series of robustness checks.
Research limitations/implications
The results show that ignoring the conditional relationship between idiosyncratic risk and returns might result in the false realisation that idiosyncratic risk does not matter in the pricing of risky (real estate) assets.
Originality/value
This study is the first to examine the role of idiosyncratic risk in the pricing of European real estate equities. The study reveals differences in the pricing of European real estate equities and US REITs. The study highlights that ignoring the conditional relationship between idiosyncratic risk and returns might result in the false realisation that idiosyncratic risk does not matter in the pricing of risky assets.
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This paper aims to investigate the association between analyst forecast dispersion and investors’ perceived uncertainty toward earnings.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the association between analyst forecast dispersion and investors’ perceived uncertainty toward earnings.
Design/methodology/approach
A new measure for investors’ expectations of earnings announcement uncertainty is constructed, using changes in implied volatility of option contracts prior to earnings announcements. Unlike other proxies of uncertainty, this measure isolates the incremental uncertainty regarding the upcoming earnings announcement and is a forward-looking measure.
Findings
Using this new proxy, this paper finds a significant negative correlation between analyst forecast dispersion and investors’ uncertainty regarding the upcoming earnings announcements. Further tests show that this negative correlation is driven by analysts’ private information acquisition rather than analysts; uncertainty toward upcoming earnings announcements. Additional cross-sectional tests show that this negative relationship is more pronounced in the subsample with lower earnings quality.
Social implications
This paper helps to further the understanding of the information content of analyst forecast dispersion, particularly the ways in which they gather and produce private information and their incentives for so doing.
Originality/value
This paper introduces a new market-based and forward-looking proxy of earnings announcement uncertainty that should be useful in future research. This paper also provides original empirical evidence that analysts gather and produce an additional private information to the market when facing noisy signals and that their information reduces investors’ uncertainty toward upcoming earnings announcements.
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Keming Li, Mohammad Riaz Uddin and J. David Diltz
Prior research has documented the role of information uncertainty in the cross-sectional variation in stock returns. Miller (1977) hypothesizes that if information uncertainty is…
Abstract
Purpose
Prior research has documented the role of information uncertainty in the cross-sectional variation in stock returns. Miller (1977) hypothesizes that if information uncertainty is caused by differences of opinion, prices will reflect only the positive beliefs due to short-sale constraints. These anomalous stock price behaviors may result from mispricing. In contrast, Merton (1974) asserts that default risk is a function of the uncertainty in the asset value process. Information uncertainty may be subsumed by credit or default risk. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ various sorting techniques and Fama-MacBeth Regressions to test the hypotheses.
Findings
The authors provide empirical evidence consistent with Merton’s (1974) default risk hypothesis and inconsistent with Miller’s (1977) mispricing hypothesis.
Research limitations/implications
Risk aversion and not misplacing is the primary factor driving information-related anomalies in equities markets.
Practical implications
It would be quite difficult to find arbitrage opportunities in equities markets because there appears to be little, if any, mis-pricing due to information uncertainties.
Originality/value
This study provides important information about the primary underlying information-related source of certain empirical anomalies in the cross-section of stock returns.
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Haiyuan Yin and Meng Sun
This paper aims to enrich the scope of the influence of media reports on the stock risk, and it also provides a path to support the research on the relationship between media…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to enrich the scope of the influence of media reports on the stock risk, and it also provides a path to support the research on the relationship between media reports and idiosyncratic risks in the stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors select financial restatement samples of listed companies in China from Jan 2015 to Dec 2017 to explore the impact of the financial restatement on the idiosyncratic risk of stocks. Further, the financial restatement that has more media attention may play a more significant role in promoting the idiosyncratic risk.
Findings
The authors found that the financial restatement of listed companies has a significant positive effect on the idiosyncratic risk of stocks. Specifically, the idiosyncratic risk changed five months before the restatement. After the restatement, the idiosyncratic risk increased by 83.47 in five days then decreased slowly, which lasted about one year. The restatement caused by sensitive issues and legal issues has a greater impact on the idiosyncratic risk. Both current restatement and delayed restatements will increase the idiosyncratic risk of stocks, but the impact of the latter is higher than the former.
Research limitations/implications
Possible deficiencies in the paper are that the number of restatements caused by major accounting errors is low. Therefore, no regular conclusions were drawn on the impact of the financial restatement caused by major accounting errors.
Practical implications
The conclusions provide a basis for targeted supervisory measures on the restatements of listed companies. The increase in financial restatements is closely related to the lack of governance mechanisms in the stock market. For investors, although the mystery of idiosyncratic volatility exists significantly in the market, the company's valuation level will affect the relationship between the idiosyncratic risk and expected return. Investors should pay attention to the intrinsic value of the company and should not blindly pursue stocks with a low idiosyncratic risk.
Originality/value
These conclusions may enrich the scope of the influence of media reports on the stock risk and also provide a path to support the research on the relationship between media reports and idiosyncratic risks in the capital market.
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