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A case study about the creation of four scenarios that were used to make sense of the fast-moving pace of COVID-19 and the consequences for New Zealand tourism.

Adapting global visitor economy scenarios, a set of New Zealand tourism scenarios were constructed using a “back of house Shell” method and were supplemented with an expert panel to test the reliability and validity of the scenarios.

The four scenarios constructed were based on two critical uncertainties, namely economic recession and the moral dilemma of the consumer. Four scenarios were portrayed using film and TV titles to help participants visualise the scenarios. Crazy Rich Asians: Recovery represented many of the attributes of tourism in New Zealand prior to COVID-19 i.e. a focus on high value tourists from Asia. Contagion: Survival of the Fittest represented the reality of the COVID-19 pandemic. This Side of Paradise: ReThinking Tourism focused on rebuilding tourism based upon the principles of sustainability. The Colony: Gated Communities represented fortress destinations trying to keep COVID-19 at bay. Each scenario portrayed several features including a unique narrative, tourism, the tourist, vision, strategy and risks. The paper highlighted the trade-offs and conflicts between the scenarios as COVID-19 unfolded in different directions.

In a fluid situation, the paper reminds readers of the value of scenarios as framing devices to understand the fast-moving pace of COVID-19 when New Zealand was in unchartered waters. Thus, this study highlights how a scenario-planning process builds resilience and foresight to help stakeholders and actors make sense of crisis situations.

The COVID-19 pandemic is considered a “once in a century” public health shock that, at the time of writing, continues to have a profound impact on global tourism and New Zealand. The paper aims to assess how consumer behaviour trends changed using a trends analysis framework.

Positioning the paper in the prognosis–prediction paradigm from futures studies and using a trend analysis approach, the authors forecasted a series of tourist trends at the beginning of COVID-19 based upon a multitude of sources trends. Then, 12 months later, they reported on the accuracy of these forecasts.

The matrix identifies 15 trends based upon consumer behaviour changes, which are either dominant, slowed, advanced or arrested. The prognosis was largely correct, which was supported by evidence gathered 12 months later.

The paper uses a series of different data sources to reflect on the initial forecasts. To some, this may be an issue of rigor, but the authors argue that through triangulation, credibility and validity are increased.

First, the evaluation matrix allows users to make sense of COVID-19 based upon the concepts of dominant, slowed, advanced or arrested trends. Second, the matrix allows users to evaluate changes and movement of trends. Third, the trends featured in this paper could be generalisable to several different circumstances associated with simple identity. Fourth, this paper has tested the ability to predict trends in an uncertain environment within the context of the ontological paradigm of prognosis and prediction of futures states.

Regional policy instruments are typically driven by economic rationales, from either a firm or industrial perspective. Yet too often, these rationales are taken as ex ante to the contexts within which firms and industries compete. Recent regional development research has urged a better link be developed between the individual, the firm, and their context, so as to understand the role of regions in supporting effective competitiveness of organizations. In this article, recent research themes are explored that may shed light on the nature of this relationship and that can be developed into an investigative methodology that could aid policy practitioners in generating policy instruments that reflect differing societal constructions of SME reality.

This chapter focusses on the ethical issues raised by different types of surveillance and the varied ways in which surveillance can be covert. Three case studies are presented which highlight different types of surveillance and different ethical concerns. The first case concerns the use of undercover police to infiltrate political activist groups over a 40-year period in the UK. The second case study examines a joint operation by US and Australian law enforcement agencies: the FBI’s operation Trojan Shield and the AFP’s Operation Ironside. This involved distributing encrypted phone handsets to serious criminal organisations which included a ‘backdoor’ secretly sending encrypted copies of all messages to law enforcement. The third case study analyses the use of emotional artificial intelligence systems in educational digital learning platforms for children where technology companies collect, store and use intrusive personal data in an opaque manner. The authors discuss similarities and differences in the ethical questions raised by these cases, for example, the involvement of the state versus private corporations, the kinds of information gathered and how it is used.