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The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of systems thinking and its value for strategic foresight and scenario planning to address disruptive forces from the outside, with the outbreak of COVID19 as a case study.

This conceptual paper concisely discusses the notion of systems thinking and the concept of complex adaptive systems and puts this in the context of contemporary society in general and travel and tourism in particular. Strategic foresight and scenario planning are introduced as an approach to anticipate disruptions in the complex adaptive travel and tourism system.

As COVID-19 has demonstrated, travel and tourism is sensitive for disruptions from the outside. To ensure long-term resilience and sustainability, a systems approach embedded in strategic foresight and scenario planning is emphasised.

Strategic foresight and scenario planning is a competence that can be learned.

Given the present status of COVID-19 and other disruptors on travel and tourism, a resilient approach to the future is necessary; thus, the value of this viewpoint paper is the proposition of an adaptive capacity system. This paper offers advice to understand and manage complexity and adaptive systems.

The purpose of this paper is to explore why autistic people and their caregivers choose interventions other than applied behavior analysis (ABA), and how their decision impacts them over their lifespan. The focus group was divided into those who pursued augmentative and alternative communication (AAC)-based supports, received ABA, selected other interventions or received no intervention at all. The reported posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) of ABA recipients were compared to non-ABA recipients in order to evaluate the long-term impacts of all intervention types. Using a mixed-method thematic analysis, optional comments submitted alongside a quantitative online survey were reviewed for emergent themes. These comments augmented the survey Likert scores with a qualitative impression of the diverse intervention-related attitudes among participants. Investigating the lived experiences of autism intervention recipients illuminated the scope of the long-term impacts of each intervention that was chosen. Overall, autistics who received no intervention fared best, based on the lowest reported PTSS. These findings may inform the potential redesign of autism interventions based on the firsthand reported experiences and opinions of autistics.

The aim of this study was to conduct research that is both question-driven and data-driven to aid in the analysis of existing data (Van Helden, 2013). In the research question-driven approach, the independent variables were the intervention type and duration of exposure relative to lifespan; the dependent variables were the PTSS severity score and binary indicator of meeting PTSS criteria. The analyses that were conducted included linear regression analyses of severity score on intervention type and duration, and χ² tests for independence of the probabilities of PTSS criterion satisfaction and intervention type. This experiment was designed to test the data-driven hypothesis that the prevalence and severity of PTSS are dependent on the type of autism intervention and duration of exposure. After reviewing the primary data set, the data-driven inquiry determined that the sample for secondary analysis should be categorized by communication-based vs non-communication-based intervention type in order to best complement the limitations and strengths of the published findings from the primary analysis.

Autistics who received no intervention had a 59 percent lower likelihood of meeting the PTSS criteria when compared to their ABA peers, and they remained 99.6 percent stable in their reported symptoms throughout their lifespan (R²=0.004). ABA recipients were 1.74 times more likely to meet the PTSS criteria when compared to their AAC peers. Within the 23 percent who selected an intervention other than ABA, consisting of psychotherapy, mental health, son-rise and other varying interventions, 63 percent were asymptomatic. This suggests that the combined benefits of communication-based interventions over behaviorism-influenced ABA practices may contribute to enhanced quality of life. Although not generalizable beyond the scope of this study, it is indicated from the data that autistics who received no intervention at all fared best over their lifetimes.

The obvious advantage of a secondary analysis is to uncover key findings that may have been overlooked in the preliminary study. Omitted variables in the preliminary data leave the researcher naive to crucially significant findings, which may be mitigated by subsequent testing in follow-up studies (Cheng and Phillips, 2014, p. 374). Frequency tables and cross-tabulations of all variables included in the primary analysis were reproduced. The secondary analysis of existing data was conducted from the design variables used in the original study and applied in the secondary analyses to generate less biased estimates (Lohr, 2010; Graubard and Korn, 1996). Inclusion criteria for each intervention group, PTSS scores and exposure duration, were inherited from the primary analysis, to allow for strategic judgment about the coding of the core variables pertaining to AAC and PTSS. The data sample from 460 respondents was reduced to a non-ABA group of n=330. An external statistician scored each respondent, and interrater reliability was assessed using Cohen’s κ coefficient (κ=1).

Including the autistic voice in the long-term planning of childhood interventions is essential to those attempting to meet the needs of the individuals, their families and communities. Both parents and autistic participant quotes were obtained directly from the optional comments to reveal why parents quit or persisted with an autism intervention.

Practitioners and intervention service providers must consider this feedback from those who are directly impacted by the intervention style, frequency or intensity. The need for such work is confirmed in the recent literature as well, such as community-based participatory research (Raymaker, 2016). Autistics should be recognized as experts in their own experience (Milton, 2014). Community–academic partnerships are necessary to investigate the needs of the autistic population (Meza et al., 2016).

Most autistic people do not consider autism to be a mental illness nor a behavior disorder. It is imperative to recognize that when injurious behavior persists, and disturbance in mood, cognition, sleep pattern and focus are exacerbated, the symptoms are unrelated to autism and closely align to the diagnostic criteria for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). When PTSD is underdiagnosed and untreated, the autistic individual may experience hyperarousal and become triggered by otherwise agreeable stimuli. Since autism interventions are typically structured around high contact, prolonged hours and 1:1 engagement, the nature of the intervention must be re-evaluated as a potentially traumatic event for an autistic person in the hyperarousal state. Any interventions which trigger more than it helps should be avoided and discontinued when PTSS emerge.

In the UK and countries following similar systems of doctoral assessment, there is little research-based evidence about what goes on in vivas. However, “doctoral assessment ‘horror stories’”, abound. The purpose of this paper is to report a study focussing on difficult doctoral examining experiences and argue that sharing such stories can provide a useful basis for examiner and supervisor education.

The study took a narrative auto/biographical approach.

The stories participants told show that doctoral examining is relational, emotional and ethical work and that viva outcomes are strongly influenced by subjectivities. There was felt to be a need to share stories of difficulties in order to bring them into the open with a view to prompting transformational change.

Participants were self-selecting and all worked at the same institution.

There are few accounts of examiners’ experiences of the viva.

This study aims to determine the factors and dynamic systems behaviour of essential medicine stockout in public health-care supply chains. The authors examine the constraints and effects of mental models on medicine stockout to develop a dynamic theory of medicine availability towards saving patients’ lives.

This study uses a mixed-method approach. Starting with a survey method, followed by in-depth interviews with stakeholders within five health-care supply chains to determine the dynamic feedback leading to stockout and conclude by developing a network mental model for medicines availability.

The authors identified five constraints and developed five case mental models. The authors develop a dynamic theory of medicine availability across cases and identify feedback loops and variables leading to medicine availability.

The need to include mental models of stakeholders like manufacturers and distributors of medicines to understand the system completely. Group surveys are prone to power dynamics and bias from group thinking. This survey’s quantitative output could minimize the bias.

This study uniquely uses a mixed-method of survey method and in-depth interviews of experts to assess the essential medicine stockout in Nigeria. To improve medicine availability, the authors develop a dynamic network mental model to understand the system structure, feedback and behaviour driving stockouts. This research will benefit public policymakers and hospital managers in designing policies that reduce medicine stockout.

The governments of Australia and the Republic of Korea recognize the importance of freight logistics in improving national competitive advantage. As they are seeking to capitalize on the economy-wide benefits to be derived from a world-class freight logistics industry, there is a need to keep abreast of their respective freight logistics policy initiatives as the basis for exploring prospects for mutual cooperation within the broader Asian-Pacific context. Attention here is focused on evaluating the Australian Government 's Freight Transport Logistics Industry Action Agenda to reflect on its relevance to the Korean Government ' s aspirations to become the Business Hub of Northeast Asia as envisioned in the Presidential Committee's Road Map for Promoting Northeast Asian Logistics Hub.

In the early 1930s, Nicholas Kaldor could be classified as an Austrian economist. The author reconstructs the intertwined paths of Kaldor and Friedrich A. Hayek to disequilibrium economics through the theoretical deficiencies exposed by the Austrian theory of capital and its consequences on equilibrium analysis.

The author approaches the discussion using a theoretical and historical reconstruction based on published and unpublished materials.

The integration of capital theory into a business cycle theory by the Austrians and its shortcomings – e.g. criticized by Piero Sraffa and Gunnar Myrdal – called attention to the limitation of the theoretical apparatus of equilibrium analysis in dynamic contexts. This was a central element to Kaldor’s emancipation in 1934 and his subsequent conversion to John Maynard Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936). In addition, it was pivotal to Hayek’s reformulation of equilibrium as a social coordination problem in “Economics and Knowledge” (1937). It also had implications for Kaldor’s mature developments, such as the construction of the post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution, the Cambridge capital controversy, and his critique of neoclassical equilibrium economics.

The close encounter between Kaldor and Hayek in the early 1930s, the developments during that decade and its mature consequences are unexplored in the secondary literature. The author attempts to construct a coherent historical narrative that integrates many intertwined elements and personas (e.g. the reception of Knut Wicksell in the English-speaking world; Piero Sraffa’s critique of Hayek; Gunnar Myrdal’s critique of Wicksell, Hayek, and Keynes; the Hayek-Knight-Kaldor debate; the Kaldor-Hayek debate, etc.) that were not connected until now by previous commentators.