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1 – 7 of 7The purpose of this paper is to examine the statistical properties of the volatility index of India, India Vix (Ivix), its relationship with the Indian stock market and its…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the statistical properties of the volatility index of India, India Vix (Ivix), its relationship with the Indian stock market and its predictive power for forecasting future variance. Further, the paper examines the volatility transmission between India and developed markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses quantile regression and VAR techniques to examine the empirical issues.
Findings
The results of the study show that Ivix returns are negatively related to stock market returns and the leverage effect is only significant around the middle of the joint distribution. The asymmetric response of Ivix is also not observed in the left tail and is significant again around the centre of the distribution. Monthly volatility forecasts obtained from Ivix contain important information about future market volatility. Finally, overnight volatility movements from the US market have significant effect on the Indian market's volatility and transmission in opposite direction was not observed.
Practical implications
If Ivix is included in a stock portfolio when the market moves up, Ivix may not fall significantly, consequently, the portfolio returns are not negatively effected. But, when market declines sharply, i.e. for large losses, Ivix may not move up significantly in the opposite direction, thereby not providing the much‐needed insurance to the portfolio returns. But for normal/average market declines, volatility derivatives on Ivix may be useful as portfolio insurance tools.
Originality/value
The paper is novel in employing quantile regression methodology to examine the empirical relationships of a volatility index. Volatility spillovers between emerging and developed markets are studied using volatility indices that are ex ante.
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Using volatility cones as the estimate of actual volatility instead of GARCH models, the purpose of this paper is to explore whether volatility arbitrage strategy can provide…
Abstract
Purpose
Using volatility cones as the estimate of actual volatility instead of GARCH models, the purpose of this paper is to explore whether volatility arbitrage strategy can provide positive profits and how the transaction costs existed in the real market affect the effectiveness of volatility arbitrage strategy.
Design/methodology/approach
A number of hedging approaches proposed to improve the hedging results and final returns of Black-Scholes model are analyzed and compared.
Findings
The general finding is that volatility arbitrage strategy can provide satisfactory returns based on the samples in Chinese market. Regarding transaction costs, the variable bandwidth delta and delta tolerance approach showed better results. Besides, choosing futures together with ETFs as hedging underlying can increase the VaR for better risk management.
Practical implications
This paper offers a new method for volatility arbitrage in Chinese financial market.
Originality/value
This paper researches the profitability of the volatility arbitrage strategy on ETF 50 options using volatility cones method for the first time. This method has advantage over the point-wise estimation such as GARCH model and stochastic volatility model.
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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the asymmetric contemporaneous relationship between implied volatility index (India VIX) and Equity Index (S & P CNX Nifty Index)…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the asymmetric contemporaneous relationship between implied volatility index (India VIX) and Equity Index (S & P CNX Nifty Index). In addition, the study also analyzes the seasonality of implied volatility index in the form of day-of-the-week effects and option expiration cycle.
Design/methodology/approach
This study employs simple OLS estimation to analyze the contemporaneous relationship among the volatility index and stock index. In order to obtain robust results, the analysis has been presented for the calendar years and sub-periods. Moreover, the international evidenced presented for other Asian markets (Japan and China).
Findings
The empirical evidences reveal a strong persistence of asymmetry among the India VIX and Nifty stock index, at the same time the magnitude of asymmetry is not identical. The results show that the changes in India VIX occur bigger for the negative return shocks than the positive returns shocks. The similar kinds of results are recorded for the Japan and China volatility index. Particularly, the analysis also supports that India VIX holds seasonality, on the market opening VIX observed to be at its high level, and on the subsequent days it remains low. The results on the options expiration unfold the facts that India VIX remains more normal on the day of expiration.
Practical implications
The asymmetric relation and seasonal patterns are quite useful to the volatility traders to price the financial assets when market trades in the high- and low-volatility periods.
Originality/value
There is a lack of studies of this kind in the context of emerging markets like India; hence, this is an attempt in this direction. The study provides an insight to the NSE to launch some derivative products (i.e. F & Os) on India VIX that can generate more liquidity in the market for the volatility traders.
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Himanshu Goel and Bhupender Kumar Som
This study aims to predict the Indian stock market (Nifty 50) by employing macroeconomic variables as input variables identified from the literature for two sub periods, i.e. the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to predict the Indian stock market (Nifty 50) by employing macroeconomic variables as input variables identified from the literature for two sub periods, i.e. the pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (June 2011–February 2020) and during the COVID-19 (March 2020–June 2021).
Design/methodology/approach
Secondary data on macroeconomic variables and Nifty 50 index spanning a period of last ten years starting from 2011 to 2021 have been from various government and regulatory websites. Also, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was trained with the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm for predicting the National Stock exchange's (NSE) flagship index Nifty 50.
Findings
The findings of the study reveal that Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm achieved 96.99% accuracy in predicting the Indian stock market in the pre-COVID-19 scenario. On the contrary, the proposed ANN model achieved 99.85% accuracy in during the COVID-19 period. The findings of this study have implications for investors, portfolio managers, domestic and foreign institution investors, etc.
Originality/value
The novelty of this study lies in the fact that are hardly any studies that forecasts the Indian stock market using artificial neural networks in the pre and during COVID-19 periods.
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Riya Singla, Madhumita Chakraborty and Vivek Singh
The study examines the effect of increased Economic Policy uncertainty on analyst optimism in the Indian market. The study also explores whether the SEBI Research Analyst…
Abstract
Purpose
The study examines the effect of increased Economic Policy uncertainty on analyst optimism in the Indian market. The study also explores whether the SEBI Research Analyst Regulation, 2014, has effectively contained the optimistic nature of analysts.
Design/methodology/approach
The study is based on firms in the Indian market. The sample period is 2003–2020. It runs a linear panel regression to measure the impact of Economic Policy uncertainty on the optimism level of analysts' forecasts and recommendations, controlling for firm fixed effects. Further, the impact of the SEBI Research Analyst Regulation, 2014, has been assessed with the help of the difference-in-difference approach.
Findings
The Economic Policy uncertainty is significantly and positively related to the analyst optimism, reflected in the forecast bias and recommendation in the Indian context. The experience of analysts and the age of the firm positively drive optimism. However, introducing the Research Analyst Regulation by SEBI led to a decline in analyst optimism. The regulation decoupled the analysts' compensation from brokerage service transactions. Thus, the results suggest that the regulation has effectively curbed the incentive to produce optimistic output.
Originality/value
This is the first study in the Indian market to assess the impact of uncertainty on analyst output. It also investigates the effectiveness of the first analyst-specific regulation in India, i.e. The Research Analyst Regulation, 2014.
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Freddy H. Marín-Sánchez, Julián A. Pareja-Vasseur and Diego Manzur
The purpose of this article is to propose a detailed methodology to estimate, model and incorporate the non-constant volatility onto a numerical tree scheme, to evaluate a real…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this article is to propose a detailed methodology to estimate, model and incorporate the non-constant volatility onto a numerical tree scheme, to evaluate a real option, using a quadrinomial multiplicative recombination.
Design/methodology/approach
This article uses the multiplicative quadrinomial tree numerical method with non-constant volatility, based on stochastic differential equations of the GARCH-diffusion type to value real options when the volatility is stochastic.
Findings
Findings showed that in the proposed method with volatility tends to zero, the multiplicative binomial traditional method is a particular case, and results are comparable between these methodologies, as well as to the exact solution offered by the Black–Scholes model.
Originality/value
The originality of this paper lies in try to model the implicit (conditional) market volatility to assess, based on that, a real option using a quadrinomial tree, including into this valuation the stochastic volatility of the underlying asset. The main contribution is the formal derivation of a risk-neutral valuation as well as the market risk premium associated with volatility, verifying this condition via numerical test on simulated and real data, showing that our proposal is consistent with Black and Scholes formula and multiplicative binomial trees method.
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