Search results

The purpose of this paper is to introduce the zero‐modified distributions in the calculation of operational value‐at‐risk.

This kind of distributions is preferred when excess of zeroes is observed. In operational risk, this phenomenon may be due to the scarcity of data, the existence of extreme values and/or the threshold from which banks start to collect losses. In this article, the paper focuses on the analysis of damage to physical assets.

The results show that basic Poisson distribution underestimates the dispersion, and then leads to the underestimation of the capital charge. However, zero‐modified Poisson distributions perform well the frequency. In addition, basic negative binomial and its related zero‐modified distributions, in their turn, offer a good prediction of count events. To choose the distribution that suits better the frequency, the paper uses the Vuong's test. Its results indicate that zero‐modified Poisson distributions, basic negative binomial and its related zero‐modified distributions are equivalent. This conclusion is confirmed by the capital charge calculated since the differences between the six aggregations are not significant except that of basic Poisson distribution.

Recently, the zero‐modified formulations are widely used in many fields because of the low frequency of the events. This article aims to describe the frequency of operational risk using zero‐modified distributions.

China has experienced a fast economic growth and shown a significant rise in income inequality in the past decades. During the same period, fluid milk consumption in urban areas has rapidly expanded. The objective of this paper is to analyze and simulate the influence of income distribution changes on fluid milk consumption of households in urban China.

This study applies an inverse hyperbolic sine (IHS) double-hurdle model to modeling at-home fluid milk consumption of households across different income strata based on a sample of 11,861 urban households in five provinces in China, and simulating the impact of changing income distribution, including five income growth patterns, on fluid milk consumption of total households as well as specific household groups.

The fluid milk consumption in urban China will continue to increase, with the unconditional income elasticity being 0.334 for the full sample and 0.347, 0.335 and 0.162 for the low-, middle-, and high-income groups, respectively. The simulation results show an evidence that, compared with distribution-neutral and disparity-enlarging income growth patterns, a rising income equality would lead to a more significant increase in fluid milk consumption. And the inequality-reducing income growth pattern has a larger impact on fluid milk consumption of households with seniors and no children, as well as households having no local urban household registration (hukou).

The government should strengthen the supply measures of fluid milk in urban areas, enlarge domestic dairy production, and diversify the sources of milk imports. It is also necessary to subsidize low-income families, especially households with seniors or households migrated from other areas without getting local urban hukou, which could simultaneously improve nutritional benefits and alleviate financial pressures.

A simulation considering the evolution of income distribution as well as different household groups is conducted. Widely distributed data with a large sample size and detailed demographic information are used. The problems of zero consumption and non-normal distribution are addressed by the IHS double-hurdle model.

The purpose of this paper is to consider borrower-specific characteristics to understand the factors affecting both the probability and quantum of loan default by individual borrowers under Islamic and conventional banking.

Borrower-specific characteristics that explain the probability of default may not necessarily be similar factors that determine the quantum of default. The authors therefore apply a Box-Cox double hurdle model to treat both the probability and quantum of default in a two-step approach. The authors also explain the differences in default risk and quantum of default between Islamic and conventional banking borrowers from their behavioral perspectives following the Sharia principles in financial transactions between lenders and borrowers. The authors use borrower-specific information of two separate bank branches of the United Arab Emirates that solely deal with either Islamic or conventional banking products.

The paper demonstrates that the probability of default and the quantum of default appear to be influenced by different set of client-specific factors. The results suggest that the probability of default does not vary significantly between Islamic and conventional banking borrowers. The evidence also shows that Islamic banking defaulters, compared to those in conventional banking, repay a large quantum of overdue when their financial leverage improves. However, they do not tend to reduce their outstanding quantum of overdue faster than conventional banking defaulters.

Availability of data from only two bank branches may limit the explanatory power of empirical findings.

The study findings will enable the Islamic and conventional banks to appropriately address Basel Capital requirements based on the borrowers’ behavior.

The study findings have the potential for Islamic and conventional financing institutions to be more flexible with equity in their lending practices.

Religious beliefs are crucial in borrower’s default behavior in Islamic banking.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze significant determinants to assess the probability of insureds’ intent to buy (ITB) insurance and willingness to pay (WTP) quantum of dollars for security benefits.

The authors use the Double Hurdle Model (DHM) and Neural Network (NN) architecture to analyze the insureds’ behavior for ITB and WTP. The authors apply these frameworks to all the 503 insureds of a branch of a leading insurer in the United Arab Emirates.

The DHM identified age, loans & liabilities, body mass index, travel outside the UAE, salary and country of origin (Middle Eastern and African) as significant determinants to predict WTP for social security benefits. In addition to these determinants, NN architecture identified insurance replacement, holding multiple citizenship, age of parents, mortgages, country of origin: Americas, length of travel, income of previous year and medical conditions of insured as additional important determinants to predict WTP for social security benefits; thus, NN is found to be superior to DHM due to its lowest RMSE and AIC in the holdout sample and also its flexibility and no assumptions unlike econometric models.

Insureds’ data used from one UAE Branch limit the generalizability of empirical findings.

The study findings will enable the insurers to appropriately design the insurance products that match the insurers’ behavior of ITB and WTP for social security benefits.

The study findings have the potential for insurance institutions to be more flexible in their insurance practices through public–private partnerships.

This is the authors’ original research work.

Markov chains and queuing theory are widely used analysis, optimization and decision‐making tools in many areas of science and engineering. Real life systems could be modelled and analysed for their steady‐state and time‐dependent behaviour. Performance measures such as blocking probability of a system can be calculated by computing the probability distributions. A major hurdle in the applicability of these tools to complex large problems is the curse of dimensionality problem because models for even trivial real life systems comprise millions of states and hence require large computational resources. This paper describes the various computational dimensions in Markov chains modelling and briefly reports on the author's experiences and developed techniques to combat the curse of dimensionality problem.

The paper formulates the Markovian modelling problem mathematically and shows, using case studies, that it poses both storage and computational time challenges when applied to the analysis of large complex systems.

The paper demonstrates using intelligent storage techniques, and concurrent and parallel computing methods that it is possible to solve very large systems on a single or multiple computers.

The paper has developed an interesting case study to motivate the reader and have computed and visualised data for steady‐state analysis of the system performance for a set of seven scenarios. The developed methods reviewed in this paper allow efficient solution of very large Markov chains. Contemporary methods for the solution of Markov chains cannot solve Markov models of the sizes considered in this paper using similar computing machines.

The paper aims to analyse the reasons behind the leadership shown by a case study retailer through the introduction of factory gate pricing (FGP) within the grocery sector. Further, there is an evaluation of the transport management techniques used to support FGP and the operational benefits gained.

The research is based around a single case study of a UK grocery retailer, which has adopted FGP. A range of data sources has been collected during a project with the retailer. Techniques used include process mapping, interviews, workshops and company presentations.

Strategically, the introduction of FGP has provided economies for the retailer strengthening its position in the market. Four main transport management techniques have been deployed to achieve this, generating reductions in transport and inventory costs while improving customer service levels. There are also some issues that need addressing, in relation to the need for a single point of control, who manages this point and the technological capabilities of transport providers.

Only a single case study is presented, and the research was carried out during the early phase of implementation.

FGP requires a certain degree of scale to be effective, and should complement current processes within a business. There is a need to manage relationship issues with suppliers and transport providers.

The paper presents a detailed case study of FGP within the grocery sector, which is more complex than previous application of the concept. The strategic rationale for pioneering FGP is considered, along with its tactical deployment and operational benefits. Concerns are also highlighted, to provide a balanced evaluation.

For decades distribution has been like a ‘sleeping giant’, content to carry on as in the past. Now it has received an awakening triggered by the information technology revolution. The result has been reduced costs and improved customer service. Alan Slater, managing consultant at Price Waterhouse discusses the importance of distribution information.

This study aims to assess if the benefits outweigh the costs of participation in online travel agencies (OTAs) such as Booking.com.

A two-step system generalised method of moments estimation of a regression model of firm-level return on assets (ROA) is used on a dummy variable indicating whether a lodging facility participates in Booking.com. The assessment contained various control variables, including size, age, leverage, liquidity and lagged ROA. The moderating effect of firm age and size was studied by including interaction variables between the Booking.com dummy and age and size, respectively. The model was estimated using participation and financial data of 775 Belgian firms over a 20-year period (1999–2018).

The findings indicate that participation in Booking.com is associated with higher profitability, with this effect more economically important and pronounced for smaller hotel properties.

The study provides a broadly applicable empirical model to assess the impact of platform participation on the financial performance of tourism, hospitality or retail businesses.

The study provides empirical evidence that, from a transaction cost perspective, the benefits of participation in OTAs outweigh the costs, resulting in substantially higher profitability. The evidence can be used to justify the use of OTAs as distribution channels.

While prior studies have described and conceptually analysed the evolution and role of OTAs in the hotel sector, and speculated on the net effect of OTA participation, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to empirically assess whether OTA participation creates value for hotel owners and investors.

本文采用了两步系统GMM的估计方法, 用一个虚拟变量指示住宿设施是否参与了Booking.com, 以确定企业级别的资产回报率（ROA）的回归模型。评估涵盖了多种控制变量, 包括公司规模, 年限, 杠杆, 流动性和滞后资产回报率。企业年龄和规模的调节作用是通过加入Booking.com虚拟变量与年龄和规模之间的交互变量实现的。该模型是使用20年（1999–2018年）间775家比利时公司的参与和财务数据估算得出的。

本文目的是评估收益是否超过了参与Booking.com等在线旅行社（OTA）的成本。

研究结果表明, 参与Booking.com与更高的获利能力相关联。这种影响在经济上更加重要, 并且对于较小的酒店物业而言更为明显。

该研究提供了广泛适用的经验模型, 以评估平台参与对旅游业, 酒店业或零售业的财务绩效的影响。

该研究提供了重要的实证依据。从交易成本的角度来看, 参与OTA的收益大于成本, 从而大大提高了盈利能力。该实例证明了使用OTA作为分销渠道是合理的。

尽管先前的研究已经描述并从概念上分析了OTA在酒店领域的演变和作用, 并推测了OTA参与的净效应, 但据我们所知, 这是第一个凭经验评估OTA参与是否为酒店所有者和投资者创造价值的研究。

Una estimación GMM en dos pasos de un modelo de regresión del rendimiento de los activos (ROA) a nivel de empresa sobre una variable ficticia que indica si un establecimiento de alojamiento participa en Booking.com. La evaluación contenía diversas variables de control, como el tamaño, la edad, el apalancamiento, la liquidez y el ROA retardado. El efecto moderador de la edad y el tamaño de la empresa se estudió incluyendo variables de interacción entre la variable ficticia de Booking.com y la edad y el tamaño, respectivamente. El modelo se estimó utilizando datos de participación y financieros de 775 empresas belgas durante un periodo de 20 años (1999–2018).

Evaluar si los beneficios superan los costes de la participación en agencias de viajes online (OTAs) como Booking.com.

Los resultados indican que la participación en Booking.com está asociada a una mayor rentabilidad, siendo este efecto más importante y pronunciado desde el punto de vista económico para las propiedades hoteleras más pequeñas.

El estudio proporciona un modelo empírico ampliamente aplicable para evaluar el impacto de la participación en la plataforma en los resultados financieros de las empresas turísticas, hoteleras o minoristas.

El estudio proporciona pruebas empíricas de que, desde la perspectiva de los costes de transacción, los beneficios de la participación en las OTAs superan los costes, lo que se traduce en una rentabilidad sustancialmente mayor. Las pruebas pueden utilizarse para justificar el uso de las OTAs como canales de distribución.

Aunque estudios anteriores han descrito y analizado conceptualmente la evolución y el papel de las OTAs en el sector hotelero, y han especulado sobre el efecto neto de la participación en las OTAs, hasta donde sabemos, éste es el primero que evalúa empíricamente si la participación en las OTAs crea valor para los propietarios e inversores de hoteles.

The purpose of this study is to first examine the factors affecting the intra-household perception of climate change. Second, the study investigates the impact of the perception of climatic stress on the operators’ and spouses’ intra-household adaptation strategies (farm and household financial strategies).

The study uses household survey data from Vietnam’s Mekong Delta. The study uses probit and negative binomial count data approaches to evaluate the empirical model.

Results confirm the existence of intra-household gender differences in the adaptation strategies. The authors found that although spouses perceive climatic stress, they are less likely to adapt to such stresses when it comes farming enterprise, but more likely to adapt to household financial strategies. In contrast, farm operators, in the presence of climatic stresses, undertake both farm and household finance adaptation strategies.

Investment in climate smart agriculture can help households in managing climatic stresses.

A farmer in Asia, and Vietnam in particular, faces significant risks from climatic changes. In Vietnam, agriculture is easily affected by natural disasters and climatic changes. This study provides insights into the perception of climatic changes by operators and spouses in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta. Perceived changes in the climate have a greater impact on women because they typically lack the necessary tools to adapt to climate change. The current findings could be useful in managing climatic risk in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta and be helpful to policymakers in designing risk management strategies in response to climatic changes.

The purpose of this paper is to establish historic regulatory conditions and priority national characteristics eliciting outstanding best practices in clinical trial regulatory systems, towards global health objectives through targeted economic development.

Exploratory review of clinical trial processes of three industrialized nations with similar democratic processes – Japan, the UK and the USA – in order to determine the efficacy of international clinical trials.

Outstanding best practices in national vaccine clinical trials can guide the international economic development, manufacturing and distribution policy strategies necessary to form the basis of a cross‐cultural global delivery system.

This study's contribution to academic literature is threefold: first, it reviews established fundamental clinical trial processes for Japan, the UK and the USA; second, it distinguishes similarities and differences to determine best practices; and third, it suggests changes in regulatory vaccine clinical trials towards achieving global health objectives.