Search results

This article presents a study of revenue forecasting in a Florida municipal government. Seven techniques, including the budget officers' judgmental approach, time series models, a deterministic model, and an optimized model, are employed with franchise and utility receipts in the Town of Davie. The authors found that simple time series models outperformed deterministic models and the judgmentally derived forecasts of local officials. Consistent with prior research, findings here suggest that the time series models are not only accurate, but also easy to implement and readily comprehensible by local officials.

Two decades of research on municipal forecasting practice suggest that it is less advanced than other sectors. Moreover, local forecasters have a greater error tolerance than peers. Survey results of Florida’s finance directors provide evidence of why this is the case. Unlike other levels of government, local finance officials receive limited political or bureaucratic scrutiny that might induce more accurate forecasts. The judgmental approaches deployed facilitate the downside bias typically found in municipal forecast practice which fosters surplus building, per Wildavsky’s (1986) description of municipal budgeting. Absent greater senior management participation, it is unlikely municipal forecast practice will change. Findings also confirm that survey-based forecast research should account for respondents’ stated levels of accuracy and their “risk adjusted” perceptions that account for a preferred downside bias of one to seven percent.

Results from a national survey of local government finance directors suggest that five years after implementation, the post-Statement 34 accrual-based accounting model has done little to stimulate the development of operating cost data (such as activity-based costing) or performance measurement, and provides decision makers with little information to improve short- or long-term financial planning,. While younger respondents attach greater value-added to the New Reporting Model (NRM), overall support for the hybrid approach (traditional fund reporting plus entitywide full accrual reporting) is limited. Consistent with the "Theory of Planned Behavior" applied in prior accounting research; traditional sociological drivers (community size, form of government, and other demographic factors.) do not impact perceptions of the NRM. Findings also suggest "accrual anomie" due to lack of experience with this basis of accounting.

Certain of GASB Statement 34’s requirements might on their face induce an upgrading of local sector forecasting capacity as well as a reduction of tolerated forecast error. Results from our national survey of local and county finance officers suggest that respondents with graduate degrees who work in offices with forecasting software may respond to GASB 34 implementation in a manner consistent with this expectation. Others are unlikely to view the standard as a cue to enhance their forecast capacity at this early stage of rollout. Our results also suggest that the norm of revenue underforecasting is deep-seated and that survey results understate its magnitude. These results are a baseline; further experience with the GASB 34 may alter practitioner perception of need and lead to deployment of more advanced forecasting methodology and heightened expectations of forecast accuracy.

This article analyzes the content of 584 articles published in the Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting, and Financial Management and Public Budgeting and Finance with principal focus on how the public financial management knowledge base is generated. We find remarkable diversity of authorship and academic domicile. However, we note an absence of simulations and experiments and that much of the survey research does not comport with "best" practice. Practitioners were five times more likely to contribute than graduate students, and content continues a disciplinary tendency to neglect linkages between the macro-economy and public financial management. Our findings may reflect a public administration research ethos detailed by Frank Thompson and colleagues (1998) that is negatively impacted by lack of extramural funding.

Comparative performance measurement (CPM) is a tool that is increasingly advocated by both academics and practitioners yet its systematic implementation via consortium participation is rare. Using logistic regression and content analysis of survey results from Florida’s 297 city managers, the authors found support for performance measurement but limited belief in the utility and cost-effectiveness of CPM in their jurisdictions. Support for performance measurement as a management tool, organizational capacity, and belief in the Tiebout Hypothesis were found to be significant drivers of support for CPM. Graduate education was a significant predictor of assigning high priority to CPM, but community budget format was insignificant. These findings were consistent across both large and small cities. Respondents were skeptical regarding the benefits that might accrue to their jurisdictions relative to the time and resources needed for implementation.

Will implementation of GASB Statement 34 induce the adoption of cost-accounting models in local governments? The authors address that question based on the findings of a national survey of local and county finance officers. Findings suggest that while finance officials recognize that GASB 34 will prompt greater accuracy and transparency in financial reporting, it may not serve to propagate greater utilization of activity-based costing (ABC) or its derivatives. Possible explanations may include feared impacts of increased cost accounting transparency as well as limited perceived payoff for investments in ABC-related tools. The authors acknowledge that this is a baseline “read” of attitudes; continued experience under GASB 34 may crystallize attitudes and lend greater support for future implementation of private-sector based- accounting methods.

Reproduces the main texts of hitherto unpublished reminiscences of the style and influence, as a teacher, of Allyn Abbott Young (1876‐1929) by 17 of his distinguished students. They include Bertil Ohlin, Nicholas Kaldor, James Angell, Lauchlin Currie, Colin Clark, Howard Ellis, Frank Fetter, Earl Hamilton, and Melvin Knight (brother of Frank Knight who, with Edward Chamberlin, was perhaps Young’s most famous PhD student). There has recently been a revival of interest in Young’s influence on US monetary thought and in his theory of economic growth based on endogenous increasing returns. These recollections of his students (addressed to Young’s biographer, Charles Blitch) shed light on why Young has, at least until recently, been renowned more for his massive erudition than for his published writings.

Survey findings from Florida reveal that larger, higher risk communities perceive greater budgetary trade-offs, a view that supports in part the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s recently implemented strategy in distributing its grants. Per expectations, city managers with graduate education saw higher levels of readiness and lower threat risk than fire chiefs. Consistent with prior research, cities were reprogramming and using existing funds rather than new levies for homeland security initiatives. This finding was buttressed by results that recently enacted property tax limits and cuts in federal aid were seen as the greatest challenges to increased funding. Contrary to mainstream public administration writing, our respondents stated that restrained funding rather than intergovernmental coordination was the biggest issue they faced in meeting homeland security needs. Overall, our respondents saw a low risk of terror threat, a perception that may represent an accurate read of the operating environment or an implicit belief that higher levels of government will provide significant assistance in the event of a major terrorist attack or other conflagration.