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Article
Publication date: 13 June 2022

Tacinur Akça

The purpose of this study is to make an analysis of the short- and long-term effects of inflation, exchange rate, housing interest rate, industrial production index, total housing…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to make an analysis of the short- and long-term effects of inflation, exchange rate, housing interest rate, industrial production index, total housing loans and housing volume on housing inflation in Turkey, taking into account the multiple structural breaks.

Design/methodology/approach

Multiple structural break Lee–Strazicich unit root test, autoregressive distributed lag bound test and Granger causality test based on error correction model were used.

Findings

There is both a short- and long-term relationship between housing prices and macrovariables. Housing prices are mostly affected by housing interest rates, housing volume, real exchange rate and total housing loans in the short run. In the long run, it is mostly affected by total housing loans, housing volume and housing interest rates.

Research limitations/implications

The variables used in the analysis are: housing price index, consumer price index, dollar rate, housing interest rate, industrial production index, total housing loan amount and domestic loan volume. Because the data that variables started common is 2010:M01, the period starting from this date until 2021:M12 is considered. The research covers only Turkey as a country. Determining the micro- and macroeffects of housing prices can always offer solutions for the problems experienced in housing supply and housing demand.

Originality/value

While investigating housing prices, there are no studies in which total housing loans and housing volume are included in the model together. However, it is important to analyze the effect of the current conjuncture, in which there has been constant increases in foreign exchange rates and high inflation in recent years, on housing prices in Turkey. In this study, investigating these effects by using econometric methods that include structural breaks also increases the original value of this study.

Article
Publication date: 26 February 2024

Rosli Said, Mardhiati Sulaimi, Rohayu Ab Majid, Ainoriza Mohd Aini, Olusegun Olaopin Olanrele and Omokolade Akinsomi

This study aims to address the critical need for innovative financing solutions in the global housing sector, focusing specifically on Malaysia’s distinct housing finance system…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to address the critical need for innovative financing solutions in the global housing sector, focusing specifically on Malaysia’s distinct housing finance system encompassing both conventional and Islamic loans. The primary objective is to develop a transformative housing finance model that addresses affordability challenges and reshapes the Malaysian housing landscape.

Design/methodology/approach

The study presents an alternate housing finance model for Malaysia, integrating lower monthly payments and reduced household debt. Key variables include house price appreciation rates, interest rates, initial guarantee fees and loan-to-value ratios. Inspired by the Help to Buy (HTB) scheme, the model aligns with proven global initiatives for enhanced affordability, balancing payment amounts, loan interest rates and acceptable price thresholds.

Findings

The study’s findings promise to address affordability disparities and reshape Malaysia’s housing finance landscape. The emphasis is on introducing a structured repayment plan that offers a sustainable path to homeownership, particularly for low-income families. Incorporating the future value adaptation concept, inspired by reverse mortgages and Islamic finance, enhances adaptability, ensuring long-term sustainability despite economic shifts.

Practical implications

The proposed model promotes widespread access to homeownership, offering practical solutions for policymakers to improve affordability, prompting adaptable risk management strategies for financial institutions and empowering potential homebuyers with increased flexibility.

Originality/value

The study introduces a transformative housing finance model for Malaysia, merging elements from reverse mortgages, Islamic finance and the HTB scheme, offering potential applicability to similar systems globally.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Case study
Publication date: 15 November 2023

Elisabeth Niendorf, Akshay Milap, Valerie Mendonca, Ajay Kumar Kathuria and Amit Karna

This case describes the evolution of MHFC, a player in the Indian informal housing sector. As a new entrant offering micro home loans to the financially excluded lower income…

Abstract

This case describes the evolution of MHFC, a player in the Indian informal housing sector. As a new entrant offering micro home loans to the financially excluded lower income families of urban India in 2008, MHFC had grown to an annual number of 18,000 loans worth INR 8 billion with an average ticket size of INR 0.43 million (USD 6,000).

With a 53.5% purchasable equity stake in MHFC, Chopra and his team were left with certain decisions to make. Should the company on-board a new social investor? Or should it bring on the more readily available and capital-rich private equity investors interested in the lucrative prospects of the microfinance housing sector?

The case discusses two key objectives: (1) to understand the entire entrepreneurial journey of a group of entrepreneurs and how they plan to exit the venture, and (2) to enable classroom discussion on how to develop a business model from scratch, get it funded, achieve scale and then exit.

Details

Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, vol. no.
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 2633-3260
Published by: Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2023

Nenavath Sreenu

This research study aims to delve into the enduring relationship between housing property prices and economic policy uncertainty across eight major Indian cities.

Abstract

Purpose

This research study aims to delve into the enduring relationship between housing property prices and economic policy uncertainty across eight major Indian cities.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the panel non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model, this study meticulously investigates the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on apartment and house (unit) prices in India during the period from 2000 to 2022.

Findings

The findings of this study indicate that economic policy uncertainty exerts a negative influence on property prices, but noteworthy asymmetry is observed, with positive changes in effect having a more pronounced impact than negative changes. This asymmetrical effect is particularly prominent in the case of unit prices.

Originality/value

This research reveals that long-run price trends are also influenced by factors such as interest rates, building costs and housing loans. Through a comprehensive analysis of these factors and their interplay with property prices, this research paper contributes valuable insights to the understanding of the real estate market dynamics in Indian cities.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 March 2023

Hafizah Hammad Ahmad Khan

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of housing price on mortgage debt accumulation while considering the structural break effects associated with the…

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of housing price on mortgage debt accumulation while considering the structural break effects associated with the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

Design/methodology/approach

To determine the existence of a long run relationship among the variables, this study used a Johansen cointegration test. The long run model was then estimated using the fully modified ordinary least square method and reported for both the model with and without a structural break associated with the GFC.

Findings

The findings demonstrate a moderate positive relationship between housing price and mortgage debt, with the impact of the GFC is positive but insignificant. The household’s lack of responsiveness to the GFC may be attributed to their optimistic expectations and confidence in the Malaysian housing market.

Practical implications

Findings of this study provide some guidance to policymakers and the banking sector in predicting household borrowing behavior during future economic crises.

Originality/value

The increase in housing prices and mortgage debt after the GFC has been a concern for many countries, including Malaysia. This study contributes to the literature by investigating the relationship between housing prices and mortgage debt in Malaysia and sheds light on the impact of the GFC on household borrowing behavior. The study’s contributions include providing new evidence to the underexplored topic, enhancing the robustness and reliability of the empirical results and providing insights into the importance of testing for structural breaks in time series analysis.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 December 2023

Robert Mwanyepedza and Syden Mishi

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

Design/methodology/approach

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Findings

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

Originality/value

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 June 2022

Niharika Mehta, Seema Gupta and Shipra Maitra

India is one of those countries that are severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. With the upsurge in the cases, the country recorded high unemployment rates, economic…

Abstract

Purpose

India is one of those countries that are severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. With the upsurge in the cases, the country recorded high unemployment rates, economic uncertainties and slugging growth rates. This adversely affected the real estate sector in India. As the relation of the housing market with the gross domestic product is quite lasting thus, the decline in housing prices has severely impacted the economic growth of the nation. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to gauge the asymmetric impact of COVID-19 shocks on housing prices in India.

Design/methodology/approach

Studies revealed the symmetric impact of macroeconomic variables, and contingencies on housing prices dominate the literature. However, the assumption of linearity fails to apprehend the asymmetric dynamics of the housing sector. Thus, the author uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to address this limitation and test the existence of short- and long-run asymmetry.

Findings

The findings revealed the long- and short-run asymmetric impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and the peak of the COVID-19 on housing prices. The results indicate that the peak of COVID-19 had a greater impact on housing prices in comparison to the outbreak of COVID-19. This can be explained as prices will revert to normal at a speed of 0.978% with the decline in the number of COVID-19 cases. Whereas the housing prices rise at a rate of 0.714 as a result of government intervention to deal with the ill effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, it can be inferred that both the outbreak and peak of COVID-19 will lead to a minimal decline in housing prices, while with the decline in the number of cases and reduction in the impact of the outbreak of COVID, the housing prices will rise at an increasing rate.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to understand the impact of the outbreak and peak of COVID-19 on the housing prices separately.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 May 2023

Alona Shmygel and Martin Hoesli

The purpose of this paper is to present a framework for the assessment of the fundamental value of house prices in the largest Ukrainian cities, as well as to identify the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present a framework for the assessment of the fundamental value of house prices in the largest Ukrainian cities, as well as to identify the thresholds, the breach of which would signal a bubble.

Design/methodology/approach

House price bubbles are detected using two approaches: ratios and regression analysis. Two variants of each method are considered. The authors calculate the price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios that can identify a possible overvaluation or undervaluation of house prices. Then, the authors perform regression analyses by considering individual multi-factor models for each city and by using a within regression model with one-way (individual) effects on panel data.

Findings

The only pronounced and prolonged period of a house price bubble is the one that coincides with the Global Financial Crisis. The bubble signals produced by these methods are, on average, simultaneous and in accordance with economic sense.

Research limitations/implications

The framework described in this paper can serve as a model for the implementation of a tool for detecting house price bubbles in other countries with emerging, small and open economies, due to adjustments for high inflation and significant dependence on reserve currencies that it incorporates.

Practical implications

A tool for measuring fundamental house prices and a bubble indicator for housing markets will be used to monitor the systemic risks stemming from the real estate market. Thus, it will help the National Bank of Ukraine maintain financial stability.

Social implications

The framework presented in this research will contribute to the enhancement of the systemic risk analysis toolkit of the National Bank of Ukraine. Therefore, it will help to prevent or mitigate risks that might originate in the real estate market.

Originality/value

The authors show how to implement an instrument for detecting house price bubbles in Ukraine. This will become important in the context of the after-war reconstruction of Ukraine, with mortgages potentially becoming the main tool for the financing of the rebuilding/renovation of the residential real estate stock.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2022

Ahmet Gökçe Akpolat

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and housing sales on the real housing prices.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in the monthly period of 2010:1–2021:10.

Findings

The real effective exchange rate has a positive and symmetric effect. The decreasing effect of negative changes in real money supply on real housing prices is higher than the increasing effect of positive changes. Only positive changes in the real construction cost index have an increasing and statistically significant effect on real house prices, while only negative changes in housing sales have a small negative sign and a small increasing effect on housing prices. The fact that the positive and negative changes in real mortgage rates are negative and positive, respectively, indicates that both have a reducing effect on real housing prices.

Originality/value

This study suggests the first NARDL model that investigates the asymmetric effects on real housing prices instead of nominal housing prices for Turkey. In addition, the study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to examine the effects of the five real variables on real housing prices.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 14 August 2023

Richard Reed

100

Abstract

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 16 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

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