Search results

1 – 10 of over 30000
Article
Publication date: 14 April 2022

Yener Coskun

The purpose of this study is to analyze short- and long-run market-sensitive drivers of housing affordability. The study highlights an ongoing housing affordability crisis

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyze short- and long-run market-sensitive drivers of housing affordability. The study highlights an ongoing housing affordability crisis in an emerging market context by also providing an empirical tool to combat the crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

To investigate determinants of uniquely constructed effective housing affordability index and house price to income ratio index, the author uses a bound testing approach to cointegration and error correction models, besides causality tests, variance decompositions and impulse response functions. This study uses Turkish data for the period of 2007 M06 and 2017 M12.

Findings

The evidence suggests that the housing affordability crisis is mainly driven by credit expansion, rent and construction costs. A sensible housing policy response would target these variables. This evidence suggests that housing affordability mostly depends on housing market dynamics rather than policies because of the exogeneous/cyclical natures of the drivers.

Research limitations/implications

Data constraints shape the study. A regional or an aggregate-level panel study cannot be developed because of a lack of data. This limitation inevitably results in the exclusion of relevant socio-economic/political factors and is also the main reason for the lack of comparative analysis in a cross-country setting.

Practical implications

This study argues that dependency on neoliberal housing market practices seems the underlying reason for the lack of efficient policy answers and the ongoing affordability crisis. From a policymaking perspective, the study suggests that necessary policy measures to resolve the housing affordability crisis may give a specific emphasis on housing rent, housing credit volume and construction costs as the major components of the crisis.

Originality/value

This study develops a novel measure and presents a new conceptual framework by combining quantitative research methods and policymaking in housing affordability. In this respect, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first work to comparatively investigate the determinants of uniquely developed monthly housing affordability measurements.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 June 2022

Mario A. Fernandez, Jennifer L.R. Joynt, Chad Hu and Shane L. Martin

This paper aims to explore the impact of the joint operation of affordability policies and whether their impact is meaningful relative to the size of the affordability…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the impact of the joint operation of affordability policies and whether their impact is meaningful relative to the size of the affordability crisis. Its purpose is to construct the features of a comprehensive policy package linked to a measurable outcome: solving the affordability crisis in Auckland. This study investigates the scale and nature of an affordability package that responds to three research and policy questions: What should the rate of annual growth of affordable housing be to solve the affordability crisis? Consequently, how long would it take to solve it? And how much would that policy package cost?

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the authors argue that the disjoint operation of affordability policies is one of the reasons why their impacts relative to the size of the affordability crisis has been small or negligible. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that affordability is as much about raising households’ incomes as it is about lowering housing prices. This study uses a modelling-based framework to simulate some of the levers that local and central governments have to affect housing prices and affordability: direct intervention on the supply-side and subsidies. Specifically, this simulates retention-and-targeting (RT) programs and subsidies to raise deposits via shared ownership (SO) schemes.

Findings

This study finds that solving the affordability crisis would take a decade if the supply of affordable housing increases by at least 45% annually. With the introduction of RT and SO programs, it could still be solved within a decade, where the required growth rate decreases to 35%. However, for growth rates between 5% and 10%, the policy goal is met in approximately 40 years, and the SO program becomes exceedingly expensive.

Originality/value

Housing affordability is one of the hottest policy issues in New Zealand and the developed world. In the past decade, a number of affordability policies have been introduced with limited success due to their lack of interoperability and siloed efforts. Results in this paper should be interpreted as the boundaries of what is feasible and realistic in the realm of affordability policies. Therefore, its contribution relies on investigating the multiple effects if the financial, administrative and political barriers to RT and SO programs could be overcome. Its scope is a blueprint for the design of policies in other cities where unaffordability has become extreme.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 19 October 2016

Adrienne Roberts

The proliferation of homelessness and housing precariousness, along with a dramatic growth in food banks, are two signs that while parts of the UK economy may be…

Abstract

The proliferation of homelessness and housing precariousness, along with a dramatic growth in food banks, are two signs that while parts of the UK economy may be recovering from the 2008 financial crisis and recession, the same cannot be said for the living conditions of much of the poor and working class population. Much of the media discussion has centered on the ways in which these social ills have been caused by government policy, particularly cuts to social and welfare services introduced under the banner of “austerity.” I argue in this paper, however, that a narrow focus on austerity risks obscuring some of the longer-term structural transformations that have taken place under neoliberal capitalism, namely: (1) financialization and (2) the privatization of social reproduction. Situating these two trends within a longer history of capitalism, I argue, allows us to understand the contemporary housing and food crises as specific (and highly gendered) manifestations of a more fundamental contradiction between capital accumulation and progressive and sustainable forms of social reproduction. Doing so further helps to locate the dramatic proliferation of household debt, which has been supported by both processes, as both cause and consequence of the crisis in social reproduction faced by many UK households.

Details

Risking Capitalism
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-235-4

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 June 2022

Yener Coskun

This paper investigates the housing affordability crisis from the perspective of vulnerable social groups (VSG) in Turkey and Turkey's megacities, Istanbul, Ankara, and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the housing affordability crisis from the perspective of vulnerable social groups (VSG) in Turkey and Turkey's megacities, Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, over the period of 2010 and 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

The author employ house cost and multiple income variables, involving residual income, to construct socially informative house cost-to-income (HCI) ratios. To measure the country/urban level socio-economic dimensions of the affordability crisis, the author develop 12 main and 76 specific housing affordability criteria.

Findings

The author find that housing is not affordable in Turkey and low/unequal distribution of income is a contributive factor for the affordability crisis of VSG. The evidence suggests that housing unaffordability for VSG is deeply rooted in the socio-economic/demographic disparities that eventually result in income and homeownership inequalities.

Social implications

Constructed HCI ratios provide precise information for the targeted housing affordability policies for the VSG defined by education level, age, location, income distribution, employment status/condition and gender. The author' socially targeted modeling approach briefly suggests that housing affordability policies should focus on low-educated groups, young generations, some elementary occupations, employees in low-income industries, and casual/regular-small firms' employees.

Originality/value

This is the first study that provides nuanced information on housing affordability for Turkey by employing HCI ratios for the targeted VSG. This socially targeted empirical analysis is the first analysis for developing housing markets as well. From the methodological perspective, the author contribute information quality of the housing affordability ratio by using income data of various aggregate-level socio-economic/demographic groups.

Details

Open House International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0168-2601

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 July 2020

Yener Coskun

This paper aims to offer an extensive empirical case study analysis by investigating housing affordability in Turkey as a whole, and in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir over the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to offer an extensive empirical case study analysis by investigating housing affordability in Turkey as a whole, and in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir over the period of 2006 and 2017 and its sub-periods.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper develops a theoretically informed model to assess affordability using complementary methodologies in quantitative analysis. This study seeks to help outline the nature of the problem in aggregate level and in the cities; it also seeks to offer lessons about how to address measurement and modelling challenges in emergent market contexts by constructing aggregate-/city-level housing cost-to-income (HCI) ratio, adjusted HCI (AHCI) ratio, housing affordability index (HAI) and effective HAI sensitive to multiple calculation methodologies and alternative data set involving income distribution and poverty tranches.

Findings

HCI, AHCI, HAI and EHAI models generally suggest the parallel results: housing is not affordable in Turkey and in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir except for the highest income groups. The evidence implies that besides macroeconomic instabilities, distorted interest rates and short average mortgage maturity, poverty and unequal income/wealth distributions are the main reasons of the Turkish housing affordability crisis specifically heightened in metropolitan areas such as in Istanbul.

Research limitations/implications

The evidence provides an insight on housing affordability problems in Turkey. However, small sample size and short observation period create a limit for generalisation of the findings. Further analysis would be required to illustrate how housing affordability changes in different cities of Turkey in a longer period.

Practical implications

By using empirical approaches, this paper helps to understand how serious housing affordability problems of Turkey in aggregate and urban levels. This evidence helps to explain declining ownership ratio in low-income groups and in urban areas. Reliable explanations on existing housing crisis of Turkey also help to develop affordable housing policies.

Social implications

Declining housing affordability and homeownership ratio may translate as the rising housing inequality and insecurity among Turkish households. Moreover, better affordability values of higher income groups suggest that existing inequality, economic/social segmentation, and hence social tension between high and low income groups, may further increase. In this respect, the authors suggest socially important policies such as reducing income/wealth inequalities and increasing affordable housing supply.

Originality/value

This study offers a detailed empirical case study analysis that can be used as an exemplar of how to overcome data constraints in other evolving housing market contexts. This study sets out an approach overcoming the challenges of measurement. This study also combines existing methodological approaches with the modified variables to provide a more realistic aggregate-/urban-level housing affordability picture. The authors calculated some parts of housing affordability ratio and index series using discretionary income, minimum wage and effective minimum wage to show the variations of different measurement approaches. Some constructed series are also sensitive to income distribution and poverty thresholds. Collectively, this empirical approach, developed by using emerging market data, provides a contribution to the literature.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 14 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 19 October 2016

Alan Walks and Dylan Simone

The precise relationships between neoliberalization, financialization, and rising risk are still being debated in the literature. This paper examines, and challenges, the…

Abstract

The precise relationships between neoliberalization, financialization, and rising risk are still being debated in the literature. This paper examines, and challenges, the Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) developed by Hyman Minsky and his adherents. In this perspective, the level of financial risk builds over time as participants orient their behavior in relation to assessments of past levels of risk performance, leading them to overly optimistic valuation estimates and increasingly risky behavior with each subsequent cycle. However, there are problems with this approach, and many questions remain, including how participants modify their exposure to risk over time, how risk is scaled, and who benefits from changes in exposure to risk. This paper examines such questions and proposes an alternate perspective on financial instability and risk, in light of the history of risk management within Canada’s housing finance sector. The rise of financialization in Canada has been accompanied by shifts in the sectoral and scalar locus of risk within the housing sector, from the federal state, to lower levels of government, third-sector organizations, and finally, private households. In each case, the transfer of risk has occurred as participants in each stage sought to reduce their own risk exposure in light of realistic and even pessimistic (not optimistic) expectations deriving from past exposure, contradicting basic assumptions of Minsky’s FIH. This is the process that has driven the neoliberalization of housing finance in Canada, characterized by the socialization of lender risk while households increasingly take on the financial and social risks relating to shelter.

Details

Risking Capitalism
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-235-4

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 January 2020

Richa Pandey and V. Mary Jessica

The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of the 2008 global financial crisis on housing market dynamics in an emerging economy like India using quarterly data (Q4…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of the 2008 global financial crisis on housing market dynamics in an emerging economy like India using quarterly data (Q4 2008–2009 to Q1 2018–2019). The study explores the extent of linkages between housing prices, monetary policy and financial stability by explaining the nature of the shocks to the housing sector and the degree of impact of those shocks; the possibility of adverse feedback loop which is beyond the natural levels; and the usefulness of explicit and direct role of monetary policy for the housing market stability, which was the loudest demand immediately after the crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper follows a three-step methodology: data transformations, a variable selection process “general-to-specific modelling” with the help of OxMetrics 6 Package, and vector autoregressive modelling with the help of EViews 10. F-test was used to describe the short-term relationships between the variables. Impulse response and variance decomposition were used to explain the type of relationship (negative or positive) and the period of the relationships, respectively.

Findings

The study finds that the housing sector is sensitive to the monetary policy shocks, whereas the contribution of the housing market shocks to the fluctuations in other market variables is not substantial, though not negligible. As far as the nature of the shocks is concerned, the observed dynamics in the real house prices are diverging from their fundamental levels. The housing market shocks are more or less static; it rules out the chances for a self-reinforcing feedback loop with the existing setup.

Research limitations/implications

The study concludes that the observed dynamics in the real house prices are diverging from their fundamental levels. Given the limitation, the researchers could extend this study by decomposing the part of the risk to the sector contributed by the other drivers, which may be inherent imperfections in housing markets, weak and unreliable wealth effect, and the presence of behavioural biases.

Practical implications

The present study finds countercyclical measures to be more useful for this sector as compared to the forward-looking monetary policy reforms in this sector. The central bank in India should continue to refrain from responding directly to the housing sector fluctuations. Investors can enjoy investing in the housing sector without any fear of the crisis as of now. The effect of speculation is small but not negligible, which enjoins the investors and the policy-makers to remain watchful. Interest rate, money supply and inflation lead (Granger-cause) the housing prices. This information is relevant for spending and investment decisions.

Social implications

The study feels that banks should avoid using monetary policy to balance the house prices. This will be beneficial both for the economy and the society, as any change in monetary policy to especially curb out surging housing prices may adversely affect the output, and finally, may lead to the deflation. The fear of deflation may cause devastating economic, financial and social effects.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the literature by shedding some new insights about the interrelationship between macroeconomic variables, housing prices and financial stability in the aftermath of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Such types of studies are absent from emerging markets, particularly from India.

Details

Property Management, vol. 38 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 July 2020

Mejda Bahlous-Boldi

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that the conventional mortgage system is not appropriate for household finance because it encourages equity extraction and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that the conventional mortgage system is not appropriate for household finance because it encourages equity extraction and excessive leverage during housing boom and leads to negative equity during a housing bust, a situation that translates into mortgage defaults and foreclosures. Home financing could alternatively be structured as a diminishing partnership preventing the homeowner from ever having negative equity.

Design/methodology/approach

Using Johansen’s cointegration test, the authors provide evidence of a long-run relationship between the delinquency rates, volume of refinancing and the change in house price index (HPI) during the 1994–2019 period. To unravel the short run dynamics between these variables, the authors used a Granger causality test that concludes that the volume of refinancing and the change in the HPI Granger cause default rates.

Findings

The authors provide evidence that under the current conventional mortgage system, excessive refinancing opportunities and equity extraction that are the main factors determining delinquency rates leading to a non-sustainable homeownership.

Practical implications

If mortgages were such that they do not incentivize defaults and foreclosures during a housing downturn, the recovery of the housing market always leads to capital gains. Therefore, disincentivizing refinancing and equity extraction would lead to a more sustainable homeownership.

Social implications

Households would be encouraged to pursue sustainable homeownership through a partnership-based model with long-term wealth accumulation for themselves and their heirs rather than short-term home ownership through the conventional mortgage system, leading to negative equity and defaults when the housing market slumps.

Originality/value

Policymakers ought to rethink the mortgage design by promoting partnership-based finance to protect the equity a household accumulates over a lifetime and thereby enhancing stable and sustainable homeownership.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 April 2022

Raed Alharbi

Affordable housing provision is one of the visions of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), as highlighted in Vision 2030. For about 21 months now, the coronavirus disease…

Abstract

Purpose

Affordable housing provision is one of the visions of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), as highlighted in Vision 2030. For about 21 months now, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has ravaged the world and has increased the level of economic crisis and financial uncertainty to achieve planned projects. Studies investigating the reality of how the COVID-19 pandemic may streamline the chances of achieving affordable housing for all in 2030 are scarce. Thus, this study examined the relevance of affordable housing, the perceived impact of COVID-19 on affordable housing and proffered measures to promote affordable housing finance in Vision 2030.

Design/methodology/approach

Medina, Riyadh and Al Qassim were the participants' cities engaged via panel interviews and supported by existing relevant Vision 2030 documents. The Delphi method was adopted to explore the government officials, financial operators (bankers), academicians and employees' opinions, and the analysed data presented in themes.

Findings

Findings show that SA Vision 2030 blueprint expresses an exemplary country in all ramifications, including affordable housing finance for the citizens. Findings reveal that the COVID-19 pandemic threatens SA affordable housing finance Vision 2030. The increased housing shortage, high construction housing cost, increased foreclosures, increased eviction, possible homelessness, financial instability and vulnerability emerged as the perceived impact of COVID-19 on affordable housing finance in Vision 2030. Refinancing housing loans to boost Vision 2030, forbearance to promote Vision 2030, improve payment relief, among others, emerged as measures to promote affordable housing in the post-COVID-19 era.

Research limitations/implications

The research only identified the possible negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on affordable housing finance in Vision 2030 and proffered policy solutions from the engaged participants' perspective. Also, the study covered three cities (Medina, Riyadh and Al Qassim). The suggestions that will emerge from this research may be adopted to address other sectors captured in Vision 2030 that are critical and hit by the ravaging pandemic.

Practical implications

Measures such as refinancing mortgages and strengthening government housing agencies will promote affordable housing for Vision 2030 if the relevant policymakers and mortgage institutions are well implemented.

Originality/value

This research identified the perceived early threats from the COVID-19 pandemic that could affect affordable housing transformation in Vision 2030 from the participants' perspective. Studies regarding COVID-19 and affordable housing in Vision 2030 are very few.

Details

International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-4708

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 April 2020

Aviral Kumar Tiwari, Christophe André and Rangan Gupta

Assessing the strength and time variation of spillovers between returns on residential real estate, real estate investment trusts (REITs), stocks and bonds in the United…

Abstract

Purpose

Assessing the strength and time variation of spillovers between returns on residential real estate, real estate investment trusts (REITs), stocks and bonds in the United States. Spillovers reduce the benefits of portfolio diversification, especially in crisis times, when asset returns tend to be more correlated.

Design/methodology/approach

The Diebold–Yilmaz approach in the time domain and the Baruník–Krehlík methodology in the frequency domain are used. The latter allows distinguishing spillovers generating only short-lived volatility from those with a more persistent effect.

Findings

On average, spillovers between housing, stock and bond returns are relatively modest and shocks to stock and bond markets affect housing returns more than the other way round, even though with variations over time. Spillovers in both directions are much stronger between REITs and stocks than between REITs and housing. Shocks originating in the housing market are most persistent, particularly in the aftermath of the subprime crisis.

Practical implications

Housing provides a hedge against volatility in financial (including REITs) markets. However, hedging strategies involving housing need to take into account potential tail events such as the GFC and the investment horizon.

Originality/value

To the best of the knowledge of the authors, this paper is the first to apply the Baruník–Krehlík methodology to real estate price spillovers. Although the Diebold–Yilmaz methodology has been used in several studies on spillovers between residential real estate and financial asset returns, this paper covers a new set of variables and time span.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 38 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 30000