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Book part

Adrienne Roberts

The proliferation of homelessness and housing precariousness, along with a dramatic growth in food banks, are two signs that while parts of the UK economy may be…

Abstract

The proliferation of homelessness and housing precariousness, along with a dramatic growth in food banks, are two signs that while parts of the UK economy may be recovering from the 2008 financial crisis and recession, the same cannot be said for the living conditions of much of the poor and working class population. Much of the media discussion has centered on the ways in which these social ills have been caused by government policy, particularly cuts to social and welfare services introduced under the banner of “austerity.” I argue in this paper, however, that a narrow focus on austerity risks obscuring some of the longer-term structural transformations that have taken place under neoliberal capitalism, namely: (1) financialization and (2) the privatization of social reproduction. Situating these two trends within a longer history of capitalism, I argue, allows us to understand the contemporary housing and food crises as specific (and highly gendered) manifestations of a more fundamental contradiction between capital accumulation and progressive and sustainable forms of social reproduction. Doing so further helps to locate the dramatic proliferation of household debt, which has been supported by both processes, as both cause and consequence of the crisis in social reproduction faced by many UK households.

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Risking Capitalism
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-235-4

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Article

Yener Coskun

This paper aims to offer an extensive empirical case study analysis by investigating housing affordability in Turkey as a whole, and in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir over the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to offer an extensive empirical case study analysis by investigating housing affordability in Turkey as a whole, and in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir over the period of 2006 and 2017 and its sub-periods.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper develops a theoretically informed model to assess affordability using complementary methodologies in quantitative analysis. This study seeks to help outline the nature of the problem in aggregate level and in the cities; it also seeks to offer lessons about how to address measurement and modelling challenges in emergent market contexts by constructing aggregate-/city-level housing cost-to-income (HCI) ratio, adjusted HCI (AHCI) ratio, housing affordability index (HAI) and effective HAI sensitive to multiple calculation methodologies and alternative data set involving income distribution and poverty tranches.

Findings

HCI, AHCI, HAI and EHAI models generally suggest the parallel results: housing is not affordable in Turkey and in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir except for the highest income groups. The evidence implies that besides macroeconomic instabilities, distorted interest rates and short average mortgage maturity, poverty and unequal income/wealth distributions are the main reasons of the Turkish housing affordability crisis specifically heightened in metropolitan areas such as in Istanbul.

Research limitations/implications

The evidence provides an insight on housing affordability problems in Turkey. However, small sample size and short observation period create a limit for generalisation of the findings. Further analysis would be required to illustrate how housing affordability changes in different cities of Turkey in a longer period.

Practical implications

By using empirical approaches, this paper helps to understand how serious housing affordability problems of Turkey in aggregate and urban levels. This evidence helps to explain declining ownership ratio in low-income groups and in urban areas. Reliable explanations on existing housing crisis of Turkey also help to develop affordable housing policies.

Social implications

Declining housing affordability and homeownership ratio may translate as the rising housing inequality and insecurity among Turkish households. Moreover, better affordability values of higher income groups suggest that existing inequality, economic/social segmentation, and hence social tension between high and low income groups, may further increase. In this respect, the authors suggest socially important policies such as reducing income/wealth inequalities and increasing affordable housing supply.

Originality/value

This study offers a detailed empirical case study analysis that can be used as an exemplar of how to overcome data constraints in other evolving housing market contexts. This study sets out an approach overcoming the challenges of measurement. This study also combines existing methodological approaches with the modified variables to provide a more realistic aggregate-/urban-level housing affordability picture. The authors calculated some parts of housing affordability ratio and index series using discretionary income, minimum wage and effective minimum wage to show the variations of different measurement approaches. Some constructed series are also sensitive to income distribution and poverty thresholds. Collectively, this empirical approach, developed by using emerging market data, provides a contribution to the literature.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

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Book part

Alan Walks and Dylan Simone

The precise relationships between neoliberalization, financialization, and rising risk are still being debated in the literature. This paper examines, and challenges, the…

Abstract

The precise relationships between neoliberalization, financialization, and rising risk are still being debated in the literature. This paper examines, and challenges, the Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) developed by Hyman Minsky and his adherents. In this perspective, the level of financial risk builds over time as participants orient their behavior in relation to assessments of past levels of risk performance, leading them to overly optimistic valuation estimates and increasingly risky behavior with each subsequent cycle. However, there are problems with this approach, and many questions remain, including how participants modify their exposure to risk over time, how risk is scaled, and who benefits from changes in exposure to risk. This paper examines such questions and proposes an alternate perspective on financial instability and risk, in light of the history of risk management within Canada’s housing finance sector. The rise of financialization in Canada has been accompanied by shifts in the sectoral and scalar locus of risk within the housing sector, from the federal state, to lower levels of government, third-sector organizations, and finally, private households. In each case, the transfer of risk has occurred as participants in each stage sought to reduce their own risk exposure in light of realistic and even pessimistic (not optimistic) expectations deriving from past exposure, contradicting basic assumptions of Minsky’s FIH. This is the process that has driven the neoliberalization of housing finance in Canada, characterized by the socialization of lender risk while households increasingly take on the financial and social risks relating to shelter.

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Risking Capitalism
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-235-4

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Article

Richa Pandey and V. Mary Jessica

The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of the 2008 global financial crisis on housing market dynamics in an emerging economy like India using quarterly data (Q4…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of the 2008 global financial crisis on housing market dynamics in an emerging economy like India using quarterly data (Q4 2008–2009 to Q1 2018–2019). The study explores the extent of linkages between housing prices, monetary policy and financial stability by explaining the nature of the shocks to the housing sector and the degree of impact of those shocks; the possibility of adverse feedback loop which is beyond the natural levels; and the usefulness of explicit and direct role of monetary policy for the housing market stability, which was the loudest demand immediately after the crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper follows a three-step methodology: data transformations, a variable selection process “general-to-specific modelling” with the help of OxMetrics 6 Package, and vector autoregressive modelling with the help of EViews 10. F-test was used to describe the short-term relationships between the variables. Impulse response and variance decomposition were used to explain the type of relationship (negative or positive) and the period of the relationships, respectively.

Findings

The study finds that the housing sector is sensitive to the monetary policy shocks, whereas the contribution of the housing market shocks to the fluctuations in other market variables is not substantial, though not negligible. As far as the nature of the shocks is concerned, the observed dynamics in the real house prices are diverging from their fundamental levels. The housing market shocks are more or less static; it rules out the chances for a self-reinforcing feedback loop with the existing setup.

Research limitations/implications

The study concludes that the observed dynamics in the real house prices are diverging from their fundamental levels. Given the limitation, the researchers could extend this study by decomposing the part of the risk to the sector contributed by the other drivers, which may be inherent imperfections in housing markets, weak and unreliable wealth effect, and the presence of behavioural biases.

Practical implications

The present study finds countercyclical measures to be more useful for this sector as compared to the forward-looking monetary policy reforms in this sector. The central bank in India should continue to refrain from responding directly to the housing sector fluctuations. Investors can enjoy investing in the housing sector without any fear of the crisis as of now. The effect of speculation is small but not negligible, which enjoins the investors and the policy-makers to remain watchful. Interest rate, money supply and inflation lead (Granger-cause) the housing prices. This information is relevant for spending and investment decisions.

Social implications

The study feels that banks should avoid using monetary policy to balance the house prices. This will be beneficial both for the economy and the society, as any change in monetary policy to especially curb out surging housing prices may adversely affect the output, and finally, may lead to the deflation. The fear of deflation may cause devastating economic, financial and social effects.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the literature by shedding some new insights about the interrelationship between macroeconomic variables, housing prices and financial stability in the aftermath of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Such types of studies are absent from emerging markets, particularly from India.

Details

Property Management, vol. 38 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

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Article

Mejda Bahlous-Boldi

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that the conventional mortgage system is not appropriate for household finance because it encourages equity extraction and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that the conventional mortgage system is not appropriate for household finance because it encourages equity extraction and excessive leverage during housing boom and leads to negative equity during a housing bust, a situation that translates into mortgage defaults and foreclosures. Home financing could alternatively be structured as a diminishing partnership preventing the homeowner from ever having negative equity.

Design/methodology/approach

Using Johansen’s cointegration test, the authors provide evidence of a long-run relationship between the delinquency rates, volume of refinancing and the change in house price index (HPI) during the 1994–2019 period. To unravel the short run dynamics between these variables, the authors used a Granger causality test that concludes that the volume of refinancing and the change in the HPI Granger cause default rates.

Findings

The authors provide evidence that under the current conventional mortgage system, excessive refinancing opportunities and equity extraction that are the main factors determining delinquency rates leading to a non-sustainable homeownership.

Practical implications

If mortgages were such that they do not incentivize defaults and foreclosures during a housing downturn, the recovery of the housing market always leads to capital gains. Therefore, disincentivizing refinancing and equity extraction would lead to a more sustainable homeownership.

Social implications

Households would be encouraged to pursue sustainable homeownership through a partnership-based model with long-term wealth accumulation for themselves and their heirs rather than short-term home ownership through the conventional mortgage system, leading to negative equity and defaults when the housing market slumps.

Originality/value

Policymakers ought to rethink the mortgage design by promoting partnership-based finance to protect the equity a household accumulates over a lifetime and thereby enhancing stable and sustainable homeownership.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

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Article

Aviral Kumar Tiwari, Christophe André and Rangan Gupta

Assessing the strength and time variation of spillovers between returns on residential real estate, real estate investment trusts (REITs), stocks and bonds in the United…

Abstract

Purpose

Assessing the strength and time variation of spillovers between returns on residential real estate, real estate investment trusts (REITs), stocks and bonds in the United States. Spillovers reduce the benefits of portfolio diversification, especially in crisis times, when asset returns tend to be more correlated.

Design/methodology/approach

The Diebold–Yilmaz approach in the time domain and the Baruník–Krehlík methodology in the frequency domain are used. The latter allows distinguishing spillovers generating only short-lived volatility from those with a more persistent effect.

Findings

On average, spillovers between housing, stock and bond returns are relatively modest and shocks to stock and bond markets affect housing returns more than the other way round, even though with variations over time. Spillovers in both directions are much stronger between REITs and stocks than between REITs and housing. Shocks originating in the housing market are most persistent, particularly in the aftermath of the subprime crisis.

Practical implications

Housing provides a hedge against volatility in financial (including REITs) markets. However, hedging strategies involving housing need to take into account potential tail events such as the GFC and the investment horizon.

Originality/value

To the best of the knowledge of the authors, this paper is the first to apply the Baruník–Krehlík methodology to real estate price spillovers. Although the Diebold–Yilmaz methodology has been used in several studies on spillovers between residential real estate and financial asset returns, this paper covers a new set of variables and time span.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 38 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article

James R. Follain

The primary purpose of this paper is to review and critique Taleb's notion of black swan blindness for a subset of the broader field of financial economics – the search…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary purpose of this paper is to review and critique Taleb's notion of black swan blindness for a subset of the broader field of financial economics – the search for capital adequacy rules for financial institutions who invest in residential mortgages. This search entails the analysis and prediction of extreme events in housing and mortgage markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The focus of this paper concerns efforts to assess the likelihood and consequences of extreme and consequential economic events prior to their occurrence. The goal is to assess the criticism offered by Taleb that economists overstate the understanding of extreme events. One piece of evidence consists of a case study of the literature and policies regarding capital adequacy for financial institutions who invest in residential mortgages. The other is a review of recent literature about the crisis that offers similar conclusions.

Findings

The evidence suggests that the criticism is valid. The case study reviews a number of areas in which the search for capital adequacy reflected the traits of black swan blindness as described by Taleb. The review of the recent literature about the crisis highlights a number of papers that reach similar conclusions. These include high level overviews of the literature on the crisis, e.g. Lo, a number of papers that specifically focus on housing and mortgage markets, and some very recent work about agent based modeling and complexity theory presented at the 2012 ARES meetings.

Research limitations/implications

The conclusion suggests a number of ways in which economists can combat the potential of black swan blindness is our search for extreme events. One suggestion is to combat the error of confirmation with ongoing testing. Combating overly simplistic narratives can also be addressed by listening more carefully to the criticisms by people outside the field. Pay more attention to silent evidence by having more substantial and ongoing consumer testing of new products, more work to identify best practices, and more resources to enforce lending laws. Finally, more attention needs to be focused upon assumptions in the models that are based upon limited empirical evidence and, if found later to be false, may lead to dire outcomes.

Practical implications

These include more and ongoing evaluation of stress tests. New rules to adjust capital requirements over the business cycle are consistent with the suggestions of the paper. Economists need to spend more time exploring and learning from outliers in the models.

Social implications

The recent crisis has been driven by a wide variety of factors from within many sectors and agents. The outcome has been a major problem for people in many sectors and regions of the economy. The hope is that economists can do a better job in the future to help policymakers and others be more prepared for the potential of extreme events in the hopes of avoiding them in the future or at least reducing their likelihood and damage caused by them.

Originality/value

The paper draws upon a wide variety of literature to establish its main points. Central to it is a review of an issue on which the author had substantial experience – academic and professional – and that also played a major role in the crisis – inadequate capital for an extreme downturn in house prices.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 6 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

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Article

Diarmaid Addison Smyth and Kieran McQuinn

The Irish fiscal position was significantly affected by the recent financial crisis. Budgetary surpluses quickly gave way to significant deficits post 2007, culminating…

Abstract

Purpose

The Irish fiscal position was significantly affected by the recent financial crisis. Budgetary surpluses quickly gave way to significant deficits post 2007, culminating into a lengthy excessive deficit procedure and entry into a formal EU/IMF assistance programme in 2010. Much of the deterioration in the public finances was caused by a sharp decline in property-related taxes because the Irish housing market rapidly contracted. In this paper, the authors quantify the extent to which disequilibria in the housing market can affect the tax take, finding significant implications over an extended period.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors attempt to quantify the extent of housing-related tax windfall gains and losses in Ireland over a 30-year period as a result of disequilibrium in the housing market. This involves a three-step modelling approach where we relate property-dependent taxes to the housing market while estimating equilibrium in the latter before solving for the tax take consistent with that equilibrium. In so doing, the authors find that the fiscal position compatible with equilibrium in the housing market has at times diverged greatly from actual outturns.

Findings

This paper confirms the significant role played by the housing market in influencing both the tax-take and the overall fiscal position. The authors find that there have been a number of instances where excesses in the housing market have spilled over into fiscal aggregates, notably in the housing bubble period between 2003 and 2008. However, with the on-going adjustments in the housing market, it would appear that prices and volumes have overcorrected in recent years. Overall, much greater emphasis should be given to the role of the housing market in forecasting key taxation aggregates.

Originality/value

The recent crisis highlighted how domestic policy mistakes (both in terms of budgetary planning and financial market regulation) can greatly amplify economic shocks. Irish budgetary policy in the run up to the financial crisis of 2008/2009 was clearly based on unsustainable levels of housing-related tax receipts. This paper highlights the need for a much more granular approach in framing tax forecasts and in assessing the public finances by more explicitly factoring in housing market developments.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 9 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

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Article

Falaq Assad Nazir, David John Edwards, Mark Shelbourn, Igor Martek, Wellington Didibhuku Didibhuku Thwala and Hatem El-Gohary

Housing completions in the UK have fallen to 125,000 annually, while government targets have risen to 300,000. This dramatic shortfall raises concerns as to whether…

Abstract

Purpose

Housing completions in the UK have fallen to 125,000 annually, while government targets have risen to 300,000. This dramatic shortfall raises concerns as to whether current traditional construction approaches remain appropriate. This study aims to compare the traditional approach with modular construction, with a view to assessing whether a shift in construction systems offers the potential to alleviate the UK's domestic housing crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

A comprehensive interpretivist review of the available relevant literature is undertaken on construction methods within the UK; advantages and disadvantages. A bibliometric analysis is conducted to extract trends and findings relevant to the comparison at hand. The database is Web of Science; the analysis software is the VOS viewer.

Findings

The research illustrates that the UK housing market is in a state of crisis. A toxic combination of a rising UK population combined falling rates of housing delivery has resulted in an ever-widening housing supply gap. The construction industry’s capacity to meet this observed dearth in supply is further exacerbated by a number of chronic factors such as: falling participation in the construction sector workforce; lowering skill levels; reducing profitability; time to delivery pressures; and cost blow-outs.

Originality/value

While much information on the various construction methods are available, including comparative material, this study is the first to assemble the various comparative parameters regarding traditional and modular UK residential construction in one place. Thus, this study provides a definitive assessment of the relative advantages and disadvantages of these forms of construction.

Details

Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology , vol. 19 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1726-0531

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Article

Steve Iafrati

The purpose of study is to explore how structural problems within housing supply and the marketisation of housing for the poorest and most vulnerable households affect…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of study is to explore how structural problems within housing supply and the marketisation of housing for the poorest and most vulnerable households affect households and can lead to negative outcomes for some households. The research highlights the experiences of out of area (OOA) households that can be below the radar in debates regarding housing crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

The research features a case study approach focusing on the experiences of a single household, which is supplemented with an interview with the household’s local authority housing manager. Additionally, freedom of information data is used to analyse the local authority placing the household OOA. The case study is transferable and the additional evidence validates the household’s experiences.

Findings

The research finds that OOA housing can be disruptive for households and negatively affect well-being as well as facilitate social cleansing. The case study, while examining the lived experience of OOA housing, also recognises structural causes of the housing crisis within neoliberal housing policy. Furthermore, the case study recognises the positions of local authorities placing households OOA and receiving these households.

Originality/value

The research is original in using a case study to explore OOA housing. OOA housing is an under-researched area where households are not homeless but are housed in a manner detrimental to their well-being. The case study brings together interviews and freedom of information data to highlight findings currently missing in housing research.

Details

Housing, Care and Support, vol. 23 no. 3/4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1460-8790

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