Search results

In this paper, we study the effect of global energy and food inflation on household inflation expectations during the period 1988M01–2020M03 for a set of European economies.

We use multifractal de-trended cross-correlation analysis to estimate the non-linear and time-varying cross-correlation. We provide additional robustness tests using the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag method.

We find that household inflation expectations, global energy inflation and global food inflation are all multifractal. We also find that the household inflation expectations, global energy inflation and global food inflation are positively correlated (i.e., they are persistent). However, household inflation expectations respond more when the volatility of the global energy inflation is lower than when the volatility is higher. The correlation between household inflation expectations and global food inflation does not depend on the level of volatility.

First, paying attention to the global commodity inflation might help anchor inflation expectations better. It is so because Central Bank's efficacy in achieving price stability may be weakened if there is a relationship between commodity inflation and inflation expectation. This task would become even more difficult in the average inflation targeting regime than inflation targeting regime if actual inflation is persistently different from the target inflation. Second, our results also emphasize the importance of effective strategy for communicating to households about actual inflation, inflation target and keep them updated about how monetary policy functions.

We contribute to the literature by estimating the cross-correlation between household inflation expectations with the global commodity inflation, conditional to the volatility of the commodity inflation under consideration.

The authors model heterogeneity of inflation expectations across Indian households using the Inflation Expectations Survey of Households data set. Using Carroll-type epidemiological models and pooled cross sectional analyses, the authors find that women, homemakers, older people and Tier 2 and 3 city dwellers tend to have higher inflation expectations compared to their counterparts. In the epidemiological model-based analysis, these very cohorts display higher speed of adjustment to news. Overall higher relative adjustment speeds point to the significance of central bank communications.

The author analyzes households' inflation expectations data for India, collected quarterly by the RBI for more than a decade. The contribution of this paper lies in two folds. First, this study examines the relationship between relatively recent inflation expectations survey of households (IESH) and the actual inflation for India. Secondly, the author employs a structural VAR with the time period 2006 Q2 to 2020 Q2 on inflation expectation survey data of India. A short-term non-recursive restriction is imposed in the model in order to capture the simultaneous co-dependence causal effect of inflation expectation and realized inflation.

This paper studies the dynamic behavior of inflation expectations survey data in two folds. First, the author analyzes the time series property of the survey data. The author begins with testing the stationarity property of the series, followed by the casual relationship between the expected and actual inflation. The author further examines the short-run and long-run behavior of the IESH with actual inflation. Employing autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen co-integration, the author tested if a long-run relationship exists between the variables. In the second approach, the author investigates the determinants of inflation expectations by employing a non-recursive SVAR model.

The preliminary explanatory test reveals that inflation expectation is a policy variable and should be used in monetary policy as an instrument variable. The model identifies the price puzzle for India. The author finds that the response of inflation to a monetary policy shock is neutral. The results also indicate that the expectations of the general public are self-fulfilling.

IESH has only commenced from September 2005, hence is relatively new as compared to other survey in developed countries. Being a new data set so far, the author could not locate any study devoted in analyzing the behavior of the data with other macroeconomic variables.

Attempts to draw together some main implications arising from studying usage of survey data forecasting the demand for durables. Posits that re‐interview tests are important, shedding light on the influences on consumer demand, by perhaps identifying respects in which purchasers and non‐purchasers differ. Suggests that predictive models, which have some foundation, stand a better chance of confident usage. Points out that some studies appear to show cross‐sectional investigations perform reasonably well in explaining individual household behaviour, both in terms of level of outlay on consumer durables and in identifying purchasers of particular commodities. Aims to describe overall patterns of results in more general terms and to draw them together by focusing specifically on what they suggest about the nature of individual behaviour and decisions regarding consumer durables.

The study intends to evaluate the impact of inflation expectation on the performance of listed commercial banks in India during 2005–2021. Inflation expectation is considered as a direct policy tool by the policymakers for stability of the economy. The study explores how inflation expectation affects the performance indicators of the Indian banking industry while controlling for a wide range of bank-specific factors.

The study applies the generalized method of moments (GMM) on a panel sample of 27 listed bank to analyse the impact of inflation expectation on banking sector performance. The data on inflation expectation are obtained from the household inflation expectation survey introduced in India by the Reserve Bank of India in 2005. Return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and Tobin's Q have been considered as the banking performance indicators in this study.

Empirical results exhibit that inflation expectation is instrumental in deciding the banking sector's performance. Inflation expectation has been found to have a significant and positive impact on accounting-based measures of banking performance. At the same time, it shows negative impact on the marketing-based measure.

The study gives a clear picture about how inflation expectation affects the banking performance and the monetary policy of the country. The study provides crucial insights to develop strategic decisions for the Indian banking sector. The adoption of proper macroeconomic policies, taking into account inflation expectation levels, is instrumental in enhancing bank's performance and in achieving economic growth.

This study contributes to the growing body of literature on the impact of inflationary conditions on banking performance. The originality lies in capturing the role of inflation expectation solely in determining banking sector performance.

The Inflation Expectations Survey of Households, conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), indicates that there is considerable disparity in inflation expectations across cities in India. The purpose of this paper is to investigate why different cities exhibit heterogeneous inflation expectations despite coming under a central monetary policy umbrella.

First, the correspondence between city-level inflation expectations and city-specific economic characteristics is mapped. Second, how the disagreement in inflation expectations across cities, measured by dispersion, behaves over the business cycle is investigated. Finally, using seemingly unrelated regression technique, the economic factors that play a role in explaining inflation expectations heterogeneity across cities are estimated.

Cities with higher economic activity and cost of living have higher inflation expectations. Disagreement across cities regarding inflation expectations rise with an increase in output gap and inflation. Information friction plays an important role in explaining the disparity in inflation expectations across cities, and the effects of macro-level factors vary across cities, thereby accentuating expectations dispersion.

Monetary policy-related communication by the RBI (toward the general public) should increase in order to address information friction, which, in turn, would temper down the extent of inflation expectations heterogeneity across cities in India.

This is a novel application of the data from the monetary policy perspective. Heterogeneity in inflation expectations across cities or regions is an unexplored area. The use of nightlights as a proxy for city-level economic activity in India (in absence of data on city-level income) is another original contribution.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of changes in credit stock on real and financial indicators in Turkey with a focus on conditional and time-varying dynamics.

In addition to lag-augmented vector autoregression (LA-VAR) based time-varying Granger causality tests, threshold models and a research setting that identifies high/low states of credit growth based on 24-month moving averages are used to explore regime-dependent behavior. For investigating the asymmetric dynamics, the authors use a methodology that identifies good/bad news in credit growth based on 24-month moving averages and standard deviations.

Results strongly suggest that the impact of changes in credit stock induces conditional responses. Moreover, we find evidence for asymmetric responses. In the case of Turkey, efforts to spur growth through credit produce a strong negative byproduct, a depreciation in the exchange rate. The authors also find that changes in credit stock have become more relevant for uncertainties in inflation and exchange rate expectations, particularly in the era after mid-2018 in which credit growth volatility has increased noticeably.

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of time-varying and conditional responses to a change in credit stock in a major emerging economy. Using a moving threshold based only on the available information in the analysis of state-dependency represents a new approach.

This paper aims to investigate the mutual dependence between housing prices and housing credit in Estonia, a country that experienced rapid debt accumulation during the 2000s and big swings in house prices during that period.

The authors use Bayesian econometric methods on data spanning 2000–2015.

The estimations show the interdependence between house prices and housing credit. More importantly, negative housing credit innovations had a stronger effect on house prices than positive ones.

The asymmetry in the linkage between housing credit and house prices highlights important policy implications, in that if central banks increase capital buffers during good times, they can release credit conditions during hard times to alleviate the negative spillover into house prices and the real economy.

Given continuing gender inequality in the upper echelons of organizations, women's leadership aspirations and orientations are of significant research interest. Controversy remains as to whether today's “Millennial” college women approach work with different leadership aspirations and attitudes than previous generational cohorts. This study compares the leadership and achievement orientations of college women leaders from 1985 to 2015, along with peer comparators from 2015.

Data were obtained from attendees at a conference for college women leaders in 1985 and 2015; male and female comparators were surveyed in 2015.

Comparing 1985 and 2015 cohorts of college women leaders suggests both similarity and change, as well as differences between women leaders and their male and female peers. Women leaders from 2015 demonstrated no differences in intrinsic direct achievement, lower self-esteem and higher power apprehension and lower levels of leadership motivation compared to the 1985 cohort. Millennial women leaders reported higher intrinsic direct and power direct achievement than male and female peers, with men higher on competitive achievement than either female group. Millennial women were more concerned about workplace gender equity, about sharing household responsibilities and were more favorable toward using external childcare while working compared to male peers.

Implications for developing young women with leadership potential are discussed.

These results make a strong contribution to understanding the leadership aspirations, achievement orientations and work–life expectations of the next generation of organizational leaders.

This study explores the response of consumer confidence in policy uncertainty in the Japanese context. The study also considers the dynamism of stock market behavior and financial stress and its impact on consumer confidence, which has remained unaddressed in the literature. The role of these control variables has important implications for policy discussions, particularly when other countries can learn from Japanese experiences.

The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model postulated by Shin et al. (2014) was used for studying the asymmetric response of consumer confidence to policy uncertainty. This method has improved estimates compared to traditional linear cointegration methods.

The findings confirm the asymmetric impact of policy uncertainty on the consumer confidence index in Japan. The impact of the rise in policy uncertainty is greater than that of a fall in asymmetry on consumer confidence in Japan. Furthermore, the Wald test confirmed asymmetric behavior.

The contribution of this study is threefold. First, this study contributes to the extant literature by analyzing the asymmetric response of consumer confidence to policy uncertainty, controlling for both the financial stress and stock price indices. Second, to test the robustness of the exercise, the study utilized different frequencies of observations. Third, this study is the first to utilize the concept of Arbatli et al. (2017) to formulate a combined index of uncertainty based on economic policy uncertainty index, along with uncertainty indices such as fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policies to study the overall impact of policy uncertainty.