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This paper aims to explore the impact of a recent earthquake activity on house prices and their spatial distribution in the Istanbul housing market.

The paper uses a multi-level approach within an event study framework to model changes in the pattern of house prices in Istanbul. The model allows the isolation of the effects of earthquake risk and explores the differential impact in different submarkets in two study periods – one before (2007) and one after (2012) recent earthquake activity in the Van region, which although in Eastern Turkey served to alter the perceptions of risk through the wider geographic region.

The analysis shows that there are variations in the size of price discounts in submarkets resulting from the differential influence of a recent earthquake activity on perceived risk of damage. The model results show that the spatial impacts of these changes are not transmitted evenly across the study area. Rather it is clear that submarkets at the cheaper end of the market have proportionately larger negative impacts on real estate values.

The robustness of the models would be enhanced by the addition of further spatial levels and larger data sets.

The methods introduced in this study can be used by real estate agents, valuers and insurance companies to help them more accurately assess the likely impacts of changes in the perceived risk of earthquake activity (or other environmental events such as flooding) on the formation of house prices in different market segments.

The application of these methods is intended to inform a fairer approach to setting insurance premiums and a better basis for determining policy interventions and public investment designed to mitigate potential earthquake risk.

The paper represents an attempt to develop a novel extension of the standard use of hedonic models in event studies to investigate the impact of natural disasters on real estate values. The value of the approach is that it is able to better capture the granularity of the spatial effects of environmental events than the standard approach.

This paper aims to examine the existence of the ripple effect from Amsterdam to the housing markets of other regions in The Netherlands. It identifies which regional housing markets are influenced by house price movements in Amsterdam.

The paper considers the ripple effect as a lead-lag effect and a long-run convergence between the Amsterdam and regional house prices. Using the real house prices for second-hand owner-occupied dwellings from 1995q1 to 2016q2, the paper adopts the Toda–Yamamoto Granger Causality approach to study the lead-lag effects. It uses the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL)-Bounds cointegration techniques to examine the long-run convergence between the regional and the Amsterdam house prices. The paper controls for house price fundamentals to eliminate possible confounding effects of common shocks.

The cumulative evidence suggests that Amsterdam house prices have influence on (or ripple to) all the Dutch regions, except one. In particular, the Granger Causality test concludes that a lead-lag effect of house prices exists from Amsterdam to all the regions, apart from Zeeland. The cointegration test shows evidence of a long-convergence between Amsterdam house prices and six regions: Friesland, Groningen, Limburg, Overijssel, Utrecht and Zuid-Holland.

The paper adopts an econometric approach to examine the Amsterdam ripple effect. More sophisticated economic models that consider the asymmetric properties of house prices and the patterns of interregional socio-economic activities into the modelling approach are recommended for further investigation.

This paper focuses on The Netherlands for which the ripple effect has not yet been researched to the authors’ knowledge. Given the substantial wealth effects associated with house price changes that may shape economic activity through consumption, evidence for ripples may be helpful to policy makers for uncovering trends that have implications for the entire economy. Moreover, the analysis controls for common house price fundamentals which most previous papers ignored.

This paper examines how the macroeconomic environment affects the determinants of prepayment of mortgage loans from October 2004 to February 2020. For more accurate analysis, the authors define the timing of prepayment not only before the loan maturity but also at the time when 50% or more of the loan principal is repaid. The results show that, during the global financial crisis as well as the recent period of low interest rates, macroeconomic variables such as interest rate spreads and housing prices have a different effect compared to the normal situation. Also, significant explanatory variables, such as debt to income (DTI) ratio, loan amount ratio and poor credit score, have different effects depending on the macroenvironment. On the other hand, in all periods, the possibility of prepayment increases as comprehensive loan to value (CLTV) increases, and the younger the age, the shorter the loan maturity. The results suggest that, in the case of ultralong (40 years) mortgage loans recently introduced to support young people purchasing houses, the prepayment risk can be, at least partially, migrated by offsetting the increase in prepayment by young people and the decrease in prepayment due to long loan maturity. In addition, this study confirms that the accelerated time failure model compared to the logit model and COX proportional risk model has the potential to be more appropriate as a prepayment model for individual borrower analysis in terms of the explanatory power.

The purpose of this paper is to critically analyse the role of housing reconstruction projects in post conflict and post tsunami Sri Lanka, and to discuss their implications on conflict prevention.

Using four housing reconstruction projects in Batticaloa, Kilinochchi and Jaffna Districts, Sri Lanka, as case studies, and a novel methodological framework, the study explores the causal relations among the independent variables associated with housing reconstruction and dependent variables related to conflict prevention. The data, gathered from interviews and project reports, were analysed using propositions from a literature review, adopting a thematic analytical approach.

This study finds that reconstruction has created new forms of conflicts and tensions for the people who came to live in the newly constructed houses. The hostile relations that existed among different ethnic groups during the conflict were continued, and to some extent, exacerbated by the reconstruction undertaken after the war.

The study identifies causal relations among the independent variables associated with housing reconstruction and dependent variables related to conflict prevention, which can be used to inform physical reconstruction programmes after conflict.

The research presents a novel methodological framework. The results reveal concerns in housing and infrastructure development that have implications for future research and practice in post conflict environments.

This paper aims to analyze how nearby property prices are affected by new construction projects in Stockholm. If there is an impact on property prices, the authors endeavor to investigate whether the effects vary among different areas within the municipality, for different groups of inhabitants and for different types of housing (i.e. public versus private housing).

The authors use a difference-in-difference specification in a hedonic model, and the sample consists of more than 90,000 observations over the period 2005-2013.

The results are robust and indicate that house prices in nearby areas increase following the completion of infill development. The results also indicate that infill development has a positive spillover effect on nearby dwelling prices only in areas with lower incomes, more public housing units and more inhabitants born abroad.

It provides an analysis on how nearby property prices are affected by new construction projects by creating a restricted control area, so as to make the treatment group and the control group more homogeneous. Thus, it mitigates any potential problems with spatial dependency, which can cause biased standard errors.

Perceptions of climate change and its threats to rural communities are among major challenges faced by scientists around the world. A few studies prove that these communities are aware of change in climatic conditions and their impacts on people’s livelihoods. Climate change is usually perceived as increasing warming days, erratic rainfall patterns, ecological variability, biological change and their adverse effects on human beings. This study aims to assess Ga-Dikgale community’s perceptions on climate change and variability.

A qualitative research method was adopted and community members of age 60 and above in GaDikgale community were purposively selected as participants in the study. Data were collected through in-depth interviews, and thematic content analysis was used to analyse data.

The study found that the community perceives climate change and climate variability based on changes in temperature patterns, erratic rainfall patterns, seasonal change, depletion of biodiversity, decline in subsistence crop production, change in water quality and cessation of cultural activities.

The study concludes that community’s perceptions of climate change are largely centred on variations in temperature and rainfall patterns. It has been established that knowledge of climate change in rural communities is of paramount importance in as far as adaptation to climate hazards is concerned.

This study examines the long term effects of macroeconomic fundamentals on apartment price dynamics in major metropolitan areas in Sweden and Germany.

The main approach is panel cointegration analysis that allows to overcome certain data restrictions such as spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and non-stationary, but cointegrated data. The Swedish dataset includes three cities over a period of 23 years, while the German dataset includes seven cities for 29 years. Analysis of apartment price dynamics include population, disposable income, mortgage interest rate, and apartment stock as underlying macroeconomic variables in the model.

The empirical results indicate that apartment prices react more strongly on changes in fundamental factors in major Swedish cities than in German ones despite quite similar development of these macroeconomic variables in the long run in both countries. On one hand, overreactions in apartment price dynamics might be considered as the evidence of the price bubble building in Sweden. On the other hand, these two countries differ in institutional arrangements of the housing markets, and these differences might contribute to the size of apartment price elasticities from changes in fundamentals. These arrangements include various banking sector policies, such as mortgage financing and valuation approaches, as well as different government regulations of the housing market as, for example, rent control.

In distinction to the previous studies carried out on Swedish and German data for single-family houses, this study focuses on the apartment segment of the market and examines apartment price elasticities from a long term perspective. In addition, the results from this study highlight the differences between the two countries at the city level in an integrated long run equilibrium framework.

Studies on the Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) for Bangkok are found sparingly. The TOD concept is a supportive development for the rapidly changing city in order to reduce urban transport problems while encouraging people to shift transport modes to use public transportations instead of private cars. This study discusses the context of TOD in the density, the design, and the diversity of land use around transit stations among successful stations in many countries. There were 18 station areas in Bangkok which, by using the TOD Readiness score, the assessment of the stations implies that the higher scoring transit stations are more compatible to supporting pedestrian use of the transit station with lower car dependency. The 4 top-scoring stations were assessing by using multinomial logistic regression model. The study has found TOD scores and the frequent uses of the stations consequently encourage the commuters around the station areas decided to rely on public transport instead of car dependency. This is an effort to overcome the understanding of the station areas by reducing the complexity of the TOD contexts to any transit station in Thailand to be eligible for future study.

This study aims to assess policies and mechanisms in Caribbean and Pacific small island developing states (SIDS) that address climate-induced migration and displacement. The migration of communities away from vulnerable regions is highly likely to be an adaptation strategy used in low-elevation SIDS, as the impacts of climate change are likely to result in significant loss and damage, threatening their very territorial existence. SIDS must ensure that residents relocate to less vulnerable locations and may need to consider international movement of residents. Ad hoc approaches to migration and displacement may result in increased vulnerability of residents, making the development and enforcement of comprehensive national policies that address these issues a necessity.

Interviews with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiators for SIDS as well as analysis of secondary data, including Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, are utilized to determine policies and mechanisms in place that focus on climate-induced migration and displacement.

While climate change is acknowledged as an existential threat, few SIDS have policies or mechanisms in place to guide climate-induced migration and displacement. Potential exists for migration and displacement to be included in policies that integrate disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation along with national sustainable development plans. Regional bodies are beneficial to providing guidance to SIDS in the development of nationally appropriate frameworks to address climate-induced migration and displacement.

Existing gaps in policies and mechanisms and challenges faced by SIDS in developing strategies to address climate-induced migration and displacement are explored. Best practices and recommendations for strategies for SIDS to address migration and displacement are provided.

Lack of access to credit is commonly held responsible for slow agricultural and rural development in low- and middle-income countries. This paper aims to investigate the contribution of demand- and supply-side factors, particularly the role of risk rationing, on credit application and uptake in the case example of Kyrgyzstan.

Toward this aim, the study explores the determinants of credit behavior of 1,738 Kyrgyz sample farm households from 2013 to 2016 waves of the nationally representative “Life in Kyrgyzstan” (LIK) dataset along a hierarchical regression model, differentiating between factors influencing individual demand for credit and factors influencing supply for credit.

The results of our analysis indicate the relative importance of demand-side factors for credit applications, reflecting farmers' perceived risk of credit default and loss of collateral. Meanwhile, supply-side factors, such as real credit constraints and collateral requests, have a stronger influence on credit uptake rates and overall loan sums. These findings highlight the role of risk rationing for agricultural investment, suggesting a stronger focus of development policy on improving risk-sharing mechanisms for farmers, e.g. by developing the agricultural insurance sector.

The paper contributes novel evidence on the role of risk rationing in shaping the demand for formal credits for increasing agricultural and rural investment in low-income transition economies. Previous research has mostly focused on the role of credit supply, thus underrating the potential contribution of individual risk attitude, risk experience and risk sharing.