Search results

1 – 10 of over 18000
To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 19 April 2018

Ibrahim Sipan, Abdul Hamid Mar Iman and Muhammad Najib Razali

The purpose of this study is to develop a spatio-temporal neighbourhood-level house price index (STNL-HPI) incorporating a geographic information system (GIS…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to develop a spatio-temporal neighbourhood-level house price index (STNL-HPI) incorporating a geographic information system (GIS) functionality that can be used to improve the house price indexation system.

Design/methodology/approach

By using the Malaysian house price index (MHPI) and application of geographically weighted regression (GWR), GIS-based analysis of STNL-HPI through an application called LHPI Viewer v.1.0.0, the stand-alone GIS-statistical application for STNL-HPI was successfully developed in this study.

Findings

The overall results have shown that the modelling and GIS application were able to help users understand the visual variation of house prices across a particular neighbourhood.

Research limitations/implications

This research was only able to acquire data from the federal government over the period 1999 to 2006 because of budget limitations. Data purchase was extremely costly. Because of financial constraints, data with lower levels of accuracy have been obtained from other sources. As a consequence, a major portion of data was mismatched because of the absence of a common parcel identifier, which also affected the comparison of this system to other comparable systems.

Originality/value

Neighbourhood-level HPI is needed for a better understanding of the local housing market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 5 May 2015

Ling T. He

The purpose of this paper is to create an endurance index of housing investor sentiment and use it to forecast housing stock returns. This study performs not only…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to create an endurance index of housing investor sentiment and use it to forecast housing stock returns. This study performs not only in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting, like many previous studies did, but also a true forecasting by using all lag terms of independent variables. In addition, an evaluation procedure is applied to quantify the quality of forecasts.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a binomial probability distribution model, this paper creates an endurance index of housing investor sentiment. The index reflects the probability of the high or low stock price being the close price for the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Housing Sector Index. This housing investor sentiment endurance index directly uses housing stock price differentials to measure housing investor reactions to all relevant news. Empirical results in this study suggest that the index can not only play a significant role in explaining variations in housing stock returns but also have decent forecasting ability.

Findings

Results of this study reveal the considerable forecasting ability of the index. Monthly forecasts of housing stock returns have an overall accuracy of 51 per cent, while the overall accuracy of 8-quarter rolling forecasts even reaches 84 per cent. In addition, the index has decent forecasting ability on changes in housing prices as suggested by the strong evidence of one-direction causal relations running from the endurance index to housing prices. However, extreme volatility of housing stock returns may impair the forecasting quality.

Practical implications

The endurance index of housing investor sentiment is easy to construct and use for forecasting housing stock returns. The demonstrated predictability of the index on housing stock returns in this study can have broad implications on housing-related business practices through providing an effective forecasting tool to investors and analysts of housing stocks, as well as housing policy-makers.

Originality/value

Despite different investor sentiment proxies suggested in the previous studies, few of them can effectively predict stock returns, due to some embedded limitations. Many increases and decreases inn prices cancel out each other during the trading day, as many unreliable sentiments cancel out each other. This dynamic process reveals not only investor sentiment but also resilience or endurance of sentiment. It is only long-lasting resilient sentiment that can be built in the closing price. It means that the only feasible way to use investor sentiment contained in stock prices to forecast future stock prices is to detach resilient investor sentiment from stock prices and construct an index of endurance of investor sentiment.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 1 March 2013

Marcelo Bianconi and Joe A. Yoshino

The purpose of this paper is to use data on new apartment offerings in the municipality of Sao Paulo, Brazil to illustrate its main claim that the hedonic direct method…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to use data on new apartment offerings in the municipality of Sao Paulo, Brazil to illustrate its main claim that the hedonic direct method using time dummies as well as the simple average method include cyclical behavior of observables and non‐observables in a house price index that may overestimate or underestimate the actual change in house prices, well beyond the composition effects.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper proposes the use of alternative characteristics hedonic functions to compute alternative Laspeyres house price indexes that differentiate the sources of observable shocks in the index. The decomposition allows for the inclusion of level and cyclical behavior of sets of aggregate variables into the index.

Findings

The appropriate house price index should filter out real shocks that potentially affect the real estate sector. An index should capture nominal variation and incorporating real variation biases the measurement. Thus, the index is intended and able to buffer the bias spillover into the rest of economy. In the limited sample from the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, the main finding is that real shocks and US foreign shocks give an upward bias in the house price index, while nominal shocks give mostly a downward bias. Real shocks make the index incorporate gains that should not be incorporated into the index, thus providing a noisy picture of the nominal variation in house prices.

Originality/value

The key contribution of this paper is to provide a framework for the construction of a house price index that filters out real shocks that potentially affect the real estate sector. An index should capture nominal variation and incorporating real variation biases the measurement. Those biases can spillover to the rest of the economy is a detrimental way. Thus, the index is intended and able to buffer the bias spillover into the rest of economy.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 1 March 2013

Joseph Falzon and David Lanzon

The paper aims to describe, construct, and compare alternative price indices for real estate in Malta over the period 1980‐2010.

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to describe, construct, and compare alternative price indices for real estate in Malta over the period 1980‐2010.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper utilises the technique of hedonic regression analysis to construct four hedonic price indices. One of the constructed indices is based the unconstrained hedonic methodology. Two other indices are variants of the constrained hedonic technique, while the fourth consists of an imputed hedonic index. The hedonic indices are then compared to other 12 conventional indices, namely the Laspeyres, Paasche and Fisher indices (constant weight and chain linked) that are constructed by utilizing the mean and median house prices pertaining to 14 different types of houses.

Findings

All indices are found to move closely together, growing between six and seven times between 1980 and 2010. The average annual compound growth rate of the 16 indices was found to be 6.5126 percent. The paper also shows how the estimated hedonic coefficients can be used to construct regional price indices for different combinations of housing characteristics.

Originality/value

The paper builds on previous work related to house prices in Malta. Its main contribution is the construction of hedonic indices that are based on advertised prices that span over a relatively long period of 31 years, together with the construction of constant weight and chain linked Laspeyres, Paasche and Fisher indices.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 29 March 2013

Anthony Owusu‐Ansah

The purpose of this paper is to examine if temporal aggregation matters in the construction of house price indices and to test the accuracy of alternative index

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine if temporal aggregation matters in the construction of house price indices and to test the accuracy of alternative index construction methods.

Design/methodology/approach

Five index construction models based on the hedonic, repeat‐sales and hybrid methods are examined. The accuracy of the alternative index construction methods are examined using the mean squared error and out‐of‐sample technique. Monthly, quarterly, semi‐yearly and yearly indices are constructed for each of the methods and six null hypotheses are tested to examine the temporal aggregation effect.

Findings

Overall, the hedonic is the best method to use. While running separate regressions to estimate the index is best at the broader level of time aggregation like the annual, pooling data together and including time dummies to estimate the index is the best at the lower level of time aggregation. The repeat‐sales method is the least preferred method. The results also show that it is important to limit time to the lowest level of temporal aggregation when construction property price indices.

Practical implications

This paper provides alternative method, the mean squared error method based on an out‐of‐sample technique to evaluate the accuracy of alternative index construction methods.

Originality/value

The introduction of financial products like the property derivatives and home equity insurances to the financial market calls for accurate and robust property price indices. However, the index method and level of temporal aggregation to use still remain unresolved in the index construction literature. This paper contributes to fill these gaps.

Details

Property Management, vol. 31 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 29 January 2018

Brian Micallef

The purpose of this paper is to compute an aggregate misalignment index using a multiple indicator approach to identify under- or over-valuation of house prices in Malta…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to compute an aggregate misalignment index using a multiple indicator approach to identify under- or over-valuation of house prices in Malta based on fundamentals.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of six indicators are used that capture households, investors and system-wide factors: the house price-to-Retail Price Index ratio, the price-to-hypothetical borrowing volume ratio, price-to-construction costs ratio, price-to-rent ratio, dwelling investment-to-GDP ratio and the loan bearing capacity. The weights are derived using principal component analysis. The analysis is performed using both the house price indices of the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of Malta (CBM), which are based on contract and advertised prices, respectively.

Findings

House prices in Malta were overvalued by around 20 to 25 per cent in the pre-crisis boom. This disequilibrium started to be corrected following the decline in house prices, with the CBM and NSO house price cycles reaching a trough in 2013 and 2014, respectively. At the trough, house prices were undervalued by around 10 to 15 per cent. Since then, house prices started to recover although the recovery in advertised prices was more pronounced compared to that based on contract prices. In mid-2017, advertised house prices were slightly overvalued, while contract prices still have to reach their equilibrium level. The dynamics from the misalignment index, including its peaks and troughs, are remarkably similar to the range derived from statistical filters.

Practical implications

Estimates of house price misalignment have both economic and financial stability implications.

Originality/value

This paper allows for a decomposition of the house price cycle, tailored for the particular characteristics of the Maltese housing market. It also takes into account the relationship between house prices and private sector rents, which in recent years have been buoyed, among other factors, by the high inflow of foreign workers and changing patterns in the tourism industry.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 5 October 2010

Chihiro Shimizu, Hideoki Takatsuji, Hiroya Ono and Kiyohiko G. Nishimura

An economic indicator faces two requirements. It should be reported in a timely manner and should not be significantly altered afterward to avoid erroneous messages. At…

Abstract

Purpose

An economic indicator faces two requirements. It should be reported in a timely manner and should not be significantly altered afterward to avoid erroneous messages. At the same time, it should reflect changing market conditions constantly and appropriately. These requirements are particularly challenging for housing price indices, since housing markets are subject to large temporal/seasonal changes and occasional structural changes. The purpose of this paper is to estimate a hedonic price index of condominiums of Tokyo, taking account of seasonal sample selection biases and structural changes in a way it enables us to report the index in a manner which is timely and not subject to change after reporting.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper proposes an overlapping‐period hedonic model (OPHM), in which a hedonic price index is calculated every month based on data in the “window” of a year ending this month (this month and previous 11 months). It also estimates standard hedonic housing price indexes under alternative assumptions: no structural change (“structurally restricted”: restricted hedonic model) and different structure for every month (“structurally unrestricted”: unrestricted hedonic model).

Findings

Results suggest that the structure of the housing market, including seasonality, changes over time, and these changes occur continuously over time. It is also demonstrated that structurally restricted indices that do not account for structural changes involve a large time lag compared with indices that do account for structural changes during periods with significant price fluctuations.

Social implications

Following the financial crisis triggered by the US housing market, housing price index guidelines are currently being developed, with the United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development leading the way. These guidelines recommend that indices be estimated based on the hedonic method. We believe that the hedonic method proposed here will serve as a reference for countries that develop hedonic method‐based housing price indices in future.

Originality/value

In the many studies involving conventional housing price indices, whether those using the repeat‐sales method or hedonic method, there are few that have analyzed the problem of market structural changes. This paper is the first to construct a large database and systematically estimate the effect that changes in market structure have on housing price indices.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 3 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 12 April 2011

Dag Einar Sommervoll and Gavin Wood

This paper aims to study to what extent an insurance based on a house price index provides equity protection for homeowners.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to study to what extent an insurance based on a house price index provides equity protection for homeowners.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses a novel dataset of all housing market transactions in the metropolitan area of Melbourne 1990‐2006, to construct repeated sales indices of various temporal spatial aggregation. These indices are used to discuss the efficiency of index‐based insurance schemes. The paper also considers efficiency under different specifications of legitimate claims.

Findings

It is found that the payout efficiency is surprisingly stable (around 50 percent) for all temporal spatial aggregations. A neighborhood index outperforms the metropolitan index with respect to target efficiency (the probability of payout given a loss). The introduction of maturity times, say legitimate claim five years after purchase, does improve efficiency somewhat. However, the idiosyncratic component of housing market transactions remains high, and the insurance probably unattractive from a homeowner perspective.

Originality/value

To the authors' knowledge, this is the first time an index‐based insurance scheme is analyzed using real‐market transactions.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 3 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 1 February 2002

Chris Leishman and Craig Watkins

This paper argues that the methods of constructing house price indices for UK markets lag behind those employed in Europe, Australasia and North America. This is…

Abstract

This paper argues that the methods of constructing house price indices for UK markets lag behind those employed in Europe, Australasia and North America. This is particularly evident in terms of the range and level of technical sophistication of the index construction methodologies. Importantly, the paper argues that the absence of reliable house price indicators undermines the decision‐making ability of policy makers and investors operating in urban housing markets. The paper suggests that this can, in part, be remedied by the construction of a system of local house price indices for British cities. The empirical research presents the first UK application of the repeat sales method to UK data. Indices are constructed for four cities and a range of diagnostic tests are used to establish the reliability and accuracy of the indices as a means of monitoring house price change. The research concludes by suggesting that the methods used here should be tested further on data from major metropolitan regions in England and Wales.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 20 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

To view the access options for this content please click here
Article
Publication date: 26 October 2010

Marta Widłak and Emilia Tomczyk

The aim of this paper is to present estimation results of hedonic price models as well as housing price indices for the Warsaw secondary market.

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to present estimation results of hedonic price models as well as housing price indices for the Warsaw secondary market.

Design/methodology/approach

Three direct methods of constructing a hedonic price index and four indices that allow for quality adjustment are presented. The paper also discusses theoretical issues related to the estimation and interpretation of hedonic models.

Findings

It is shown that the imputation and the time dummy variable indices are subject to less variation than the characteristic price index. It is also shown that in comparison to the mean and the median, hedonic indices are less variable, which can be interpreted as partial control for quality changes in dwellings sold.

Practical implications

As this research project represents one of the first attempts of hedonic modelling applied to the Polish housing market, its results may be employed by appraisers to gain insight into behaviour of the Warsaw housing market. Practical implications focus on reliable measurement of house price dynamics in Poland. This paper supplies an appropriate methodology for addressing this question and offers empirical solutions.

Originality/value

Employment of hedonic models for construction of quality‐adjusted housing price indices has not yet been explored in Poland. The theoretical and practical aspects of hedonic indices presented in the paper open promising directions for the development of Polish statistics of real estate prices.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 3 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 18000