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This paper investigates the semantic association mechanisms of weak demand signals that facilitate innovative product development in terms of conceptual and temporal precedence, despite their inherent ambiguity and uncertainty.

To address this challenge, a domain ontology approach is proposed to construct a customer demand scenario-based framework that eliminates the blind spots in weak demand signal identification. The framework provides a basis for identifying such signals and introduces evaluation indices, such as depth, novelty and association, which are integrated to propose a three-dimensional weak signal recognition model based on domain ontology that outperforms existing research.

Empirical analysis is carried out based on customer comments of new energy vehicles on car platform such as “Auto Home” and “Bitauto”. Results demonstrate that in terms of recognition quantity, the three-dimensional weak demand signal recognition model, based on domain ontology, can accurately identify six demand weak signals. Conversely, the keyword analysis method exhibits a recognition quantity of four weak signals; in terms of recognition quality, the three-dimensional weak demand signal recognition model based on domain ontology can exclude non-demand signals such as “charging technology”, while keyword analysis methods cannot. Overall, the model proposed in this paper has higher sensitivity.

This paper proposes a novel method for identifying weak demand signals that considers the frequency of the signal's novelty, depth and relevance to the target demand. To verify its effectiveness, customer review data for new energy vehicles is used. The results provide a theoretical reference for formulating government policies and identifying weak demand signals for businesses.

Due to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four plausible narratives of the future of Isfahan. Also, the authors described the problems of city foresight in the Global South.

This paper chronicles the Schwartzian steps taken to build explorative scenarios of Isfahan City in Iran in 2040. After using a STEEPV (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Value) analysis, the authors prioritized the collected variables by combining influence diagrams, the iceberg metaphor and an expert-based survey. Once the key uncertainties were derived, four scenarios were developed and discussed.

Through thematic analysis of the official visions of Isfahan’s future and the juxtaposition of these narratives with insight yielded in the scenario-development process, the paper concludes that the Northernness of the prevailing urban imaginaries, uncritical mimetic benchmarking, depoliticization of urban futures and the decorative reductionistic visions colonize urban futures in Isfahan/Iran. Critical/deconstructive city foresight and application of discomfort/ignorance criteria in the generation of scenarios can improve the rigor and quality of city foresight in the Global South.

The application of city foresight in the Global South has been limited. The paper is a step toward bridging this gap and providing some recommendations on how city foresight in the Global South might differ from its counterparts in the Global North.

With the intensification of market competition, there is a growing demand for weak signal identification and evolutionary analysis for enterprise foresight. For decades, many scholars have conducted relevant research. However, the existing research only cuts in from a single angle and lacks a systematic and comprehensive overview. In this paper, the authors summarize the articles related to weak signal recognition and evolutionary analysis, in an attempt to make contributions to relevant research.

The authors develop a systematic overview framework based on the most classical three-dimensional space model of weak signals. Framework comprehensively summarizes the current research insights and knowledge from three dimensions of research field, identification methods and interpretation methods.

The research results show that it is necessary to improve the automation level in the process of weak signal recognition and analysis and transfer valuable human resources to the decision-making stage. In addition, it is necessary to coordinate multiple types of data sources, expand research subfields and optimize weak signal recognition and interpretation methods, with a view to expanding weak signal future research, making theoretical and practical contributions to enterprise foresight, and providing reference for the government to establish weak signal technology monitoring, evaluation and early warning mechanisms.

The authors develop a systematic overview framework based on the most classical three-dimensional space model of weak signals. It comprehensively summarizes the current research insights and knowledge from three dimensions of research field, identification methods and interpretation methods.

This paper aims to: first, it studies expert opinions about the future of clean, decentralized energy technology in Australia; second, develop an interpretive and participatory foresighting methodology for a forthcoming study.

This paper reports a forecasting study about the future of clean energy. Driven mostly by economics and changing carbon policies, the energy sector is currently moving from fossil fuels to a variety of cleaner technologies. Energy experts have several incommensurate interpretations of how this change will happen. This paper describes the first phase of an ongoing study that foresight clean energy futures in Australia. By building on a participatory method in a scientific expert community, it describes the path from technological presumptions into four parallel yet interconnected scenarios. The paper also explores the social drivers behind these scenarios.

First, energy experts in Australia classify futures into four main scenarios: abundant, where energy will be mostly produced by solar cells; traded, where the future of energy lies in virtual power plants and microgrids; circular, which targets Australia’s NetZero goals through biomaterials, carbon capture and new powerful; secure, which secures the country’s energy supply through coal and nuclear energy. Second, they locate policy as the most important form of wildcards. The policy is multilayered from local to US politics and falls outside the scope of forecasting.

The most important limitations of the study are: first, its reliance on scientific and technological experts, which guarantees its scientific validity but may underrepresent the social drivers of energy; second, this study is a methodological pilot of a larger study that will target industrial, commercial and local drivers; third, its focus on Australia, where politics, the size of the country and climate shape the uptake of clean energy in specific ways, most notably in the case of rapid uptake of solar energy.

The main practical implications of the paper are its broad focus on clean energy futures and its participatory foresighting approach, which can be repeated in other studies.

The main social implication of the study is that it clearly shows that a technological perspective is necessary but not sufficient in understanding the future of clean energy. The paper also shows that local drivers importantly mold the future and should be taken into account in future studies and policy.

This paper makes two contributions. First, it organizes several technologies into four scenarios that clarify Australia’s clean energy futures better than a piecemeal study would do. Second, it developed and piloted an interpretive participatory methodology for studying futures by building on references from design research. This methodology will be used in subsequent studies.

The purpose of this study is to explore the principal research query and whether strategic foresight deployed by entrepreneurial firms in energy transition aims at crafting future readiness.

With a focus on entrepreneurial firms working in the alternative energy segment in the Indian context, the intent is to examine the deployment of strategic foresight by incumbent firms and their entrepreneurial journey. The authors have adopted the approach of Eisenhardt for this research. The area of interest for the authors entailing strategic foresight by entrepreneurial firms in energy transition aligns with defining features reflecting the aim of Eisenhardt method for this exploratory research coupled with constructivism.

While the future scenarios in the energy sector have to be necessarily multiple, their alignment with different geographic, economic, demographic and political outlooks shall be defined by the pathways niched through the deployment of strategic foresight for arriving at those scenarios.

Strategic foresight deployed by entrepreneurial firms has the potential to create future readiness through self-reliant sustainable economic value chains for local populace, thus propagating holistic development in remote regions.

This paper attempts to knit together the domains of strategic foresight, entrepreneurial firms and energy transition through case research and present the future thinking deployed for navigation in uncharted pathways by capturing the foresight component of these incumbent firms chosen through careful case selection. The narrative has been strengthened by the varied interviews across participants and the observations made by the authors during the research work.

The fire sector within the United Kingdom has identified a need to further develop their systematic use of academic literature and develop mechanisms to include academic knowledge to inform evidence-based policy and practice. By increasing knowledge exchange between the fire sector and academia, the ability to horizon scan and identify future relevant phenomena of interest to the fire sector will be achieved. Consequently, the evidence base and horizon scanning will increase the specificity of techniques, approaches and practices needed to continually improve the safety of the activities completed within the firefighting occupation, and it will also provide priority areas for investment and increase firefighter safety.

This technical paper primarily features an initial scoping review of academic and grey literature and an operational incident data review. This was completed to provide an initial and updated review of disciplines and areas of academia that are actively engaged in research relevant to the fire and rescue service. Consequently, this method sought to identify and examine the various disciplines of academia involved in fire research. This paper then uses that outcome to suggest a model of multidisciplinarity to inform the fire sector.

As a result of the scoping review, each academic discipline was identified and an initial review developed a predetermined set of key search terms. This was established through identifying the most frequently used fire-related terms within each discipline. This allowed for a comprehensive understanding of the breadth of activity and depth of complexity of fire related research within each discipline and an indicative set of key search terms to be developed. Recommendations are formulated to suggest next steps to routinely incorporate the academic knowledge base in the learning process of the fire and rescue services in the United Kingdom.

This paper provides an initial scoping map of academic literature and disciplines relevant to activities completed in the UK fire sector, which can be used to further develop the evidence base to inform the fire and rescue service of the United Kingdom. It also outlines possible mechanisms and a model to systematically facilitate knowledge exchange between academia and the fire sector by which knowledge exchange could further support the development of evidence-based policy and practice. The broad range of benefits of collaboration between the fire and rescue service and academia are explored.

This paper provides clear evidence as to why fire related research should have an increased priority status to inform the national fire and rescue services learning process and evidence for national policy and guidance development within the UK fire and rescue service. Additionally, recommendations are made to support the consideration of academic evidence in the systematic sector wide learning process.

Previously, the UK fire and rescue service had limited coordinated strategic engagement with academic disciplines to further develop their learning processes in order to produce an evidence base, which is cognisant of academic research to inform practice and guidance. This paper begins the narrowing of that gap by categorising academic literature relevant to fire research into clear disciplines, mapping these to an updated breadth of current activities undertaken by the fire and rescue service across the United Kingdom. The process also details a pilot of the proposed model to support knowledge exchange by producing an academically evidence-based submission to the National Fire Chiefs Council organisational learning process.

Meat overconsumption by tourists is one of the key issues in the sustainability of tourist destinations. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact that a promotion of meatless gastronomy and its actual increased availability would have on the attractiveness and visitation of a popular European urban destination.

The research uses an innovative foresight approach that combines environmental scanning and scenarios. The authors formulated the scenarios using the Delphi technique and working with 27 scholars whose insights into the topic were enhanced through theses that resulted from the environmental scanning. They provided their insights into how a promotion of meatless gastronomy would affect a destination. Subsequently, the authors synthetized their insights and formulated the scenarios.

Based on two defined scenarios, the authors found that a meatless image represents an opportunity for the future development of an urban European destination. A long-term growth in visitor numbers can be achieved while ensuring environmental, economic and socio-cultural sustainability providing that relevant stakeholders are involved in the promotional activities.

Management of tourists' unsustainable eating habits is currently an unexplored issue. The present research addresses this topic and provides valuable insights that will help to address sustainability issues while making tourism destinations more attractive.

The purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within the city of Moscow. This research uncovers a wide range of multicultural and multidisciplinary global trends that will affect the development of major cities in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including the inherent complexity of urban contexts, demographic and socioeconomic trends, as well as scientific and ecological factors.

The methodological approach is based on classic foresight instruments. Its novelty lays in the blending of qualitative and quantitative methods specially selected as the most appropriate for the identification of S&T areas in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including horizon scanning, bibliometric analysis, expert surveys and the construction of composite indexes with respect to the scope and resources of the research and the selected object for empirical application – Moscow, which is one of the world’s largest megacities. The analysis was performed for the period of 2009–2018 and expert procedures took place in 2019.

As a result, 25 global trends were identified, evaluated and discussed over the course of an expert survey and subsequent expert events. Ten priority areas of S&T development were determined, including 62 technological sub-areas within them and the most important market niches for all identified technological sub-areas, which could be useful for the world’s megacities. The results of this study are illustrated using the construction sector. Based on the conducted research and results, a list of recommendations on S&T policy measures and instruments were suggested, including the creation of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which by the end of 2023 contained more than 6,000 projects and initiatives, selected using the findings of this investigation.

This research contributes to the existing literature and research agenda of setting priorities for S&T development and shows how it can be done for a megacity. The blended foresight methodology that was created within the study satisfies the criteria of scientific originality, is repeatable for any interested researcher, is applicable to any other city in the world and demonstrates its high efficiency in empirical application. It could be used for creating new agenda items in S&T policy, setting S&T priorities for a megacity and integrating the results into decision-making processes. This study provides recommendations on the further implementation of the designed methodology and results into a policymaking system. Moreover, the example of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which was created based on the results of our research, demonstrates these recommendations’ practical significance in real life, which is quite valuable. The limitation of this study is that it is not devoted to urban planning issues directly or the promotion of R&D areas; it is about setting promising S&T priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty for megacities.

The purpose of this paper is to argue that human resource development (HRD) needs to embrace and include futures and foresight learning (FFL) as a new addition to its field of theorising and practice. The question to consider is: How can FFL become a new feature of HRD? A key part of the authors’ argument is that the inclusion of FFL will enable HRD to add to the success of any organisation and make a vital contribution to the management of people at work.

This paper firstly considers some of the debates surrounding the meaning of HRD. The authors suggest that instability of the time serves to disturb any comforts that have been created in HRD and that there is a need to consider how there might be different futures for what we still call HRD in research, practice and praxis. This paper then considers how FFL might become one possibility for expanding the existing boundaries of HRD. The authors characterise futures and foresight as a learning process, which provides new but complementary features to what is already considered as HRD. This paper will show how FFL can lead to organisation's success and the way this can be achieved.

There is a wide variety of meanings of the term HRD; however, HRD is still cast as a “weakened profession” which has to play a subservient role to others in the workplace. Over the last 15 years, the expansion of the meaning of HRD has been seen as evidence of its evolving and emerging nature and development based on a co-creation with other disciplines. This creates a space for FFL, defined as an ongoing learning process to find predictable, probable, possible and/or a variety of long-term futures. FFL embraces three key processes of scanning, futuring and reconfiguring, all of which contain a high potential for participants and others to learn as they proceed, providing outcomes at each stage. FFL has been shown to enhance organisation performance and success and HRD interventions can play a key part in implementation. This represents a significant opportunity for the HRD profession to move from weakness towards strength.

For HRD researchers, while FFL is not yet on its radar, the authors would argue that the uncertainties of the future require that more attention be given to what might lie ahead. Indeed, HRD researchers need to ask the question: What is the future of HRD research? In addition, if the authors’ call for FFL to be included in the practice of HRD, such practice will itself provide new pathways for HRD research. Further research questions might include: To what extent is FFL practiced in organisations and what role do HRD practitioners play in delivery? How does FFL impact on organisation behaviour and outcomes? What new products and services emerge from FFL? What new skills are required to deliver FFL? Can FFL enhance the status of HRD practitioners in the work place and its role in decision-making? and How can the HRD profession develop as a hybrid profession with respect to machine learning (ML)/artificial intelligence (AI)?

FFL produces outcomes that have importance for strategy, HRD practitioner can learn to facilitate FFL by action learning and in leadership development programmes. FFL offers a significant opportunity to enhance the importance of HRD in organisations and beyond. FFL offers those involved in HRD a significant opportunity to transfer ideas into practice that have an impact on organisation sustainability. HRD can play a significant role in the design and delivery of ML and AI projects.

This paper concludes with a call for embracing FFL as a challenging but important addition to how we talk about learning at work. The authors argue that FFL offers a significant opportunity to enhance the importance of HRD in organisations and beyond. At its centre, FFL involves learning by people, groups, organisations and machines and this has to be of concern to HRD.

The 2008 Chinese melamine milk scandal resulted in six reported fatalities and affected around 300,000 children, of whom 54,000 were hospitalised. Previous studies have used linear approaches to examine the root causes of the melamine milk scandal.

In the present study, we applied a systems approach to the melamine milk scandal to identify the complex systems-level failures across the supply chain leading to the incident and why food fraud incidents such as this occurred in the dairy sector. Additionally, systemic failures associated with food fraud vulnerability factors were considered (i.e. opportunities, motivation and control measures).

48 contributory factors of influence were identified and grouped across six sociotechnical levels across the Chinese dairy system, from government to equipment and surroundings. Lack of vertical integration (processes and communication) contributed to the failure. When viewed from a broader perspective, the melamine milk scandal can be linked to a series of human errors and organisational issues associated with government bodies, the dairy supply chain, individual organisations and management decisions and individual actions of staff or processes.

This approach is of value to policymakers and the industry as it supports public health investigations of food fraud incidents and proactive food safety management.

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to analyse a food safety or fraud incident using the AcciMap approach and the food fraud vulnerability assessment (FFVA) technique. AcciMap analysis is applied to both unintentional and intentional aspects of the incident.