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After the 2008 global financial crisis, the world has been through an improving economic integration. The scale of RMB cross-border transaction flows expands as well. Countries around China are gradually accepting the RMB as a means of trading and investing. Nowadays, the phenomenon of RMB substitutes the currencies of neighboring countries has become more and more widespread. As a frontier region for China's opening up to the outside world, Hong Kong's financial market is highly transparent with perfect infrastructures. The completion of the Hong Kong offshore RMB market leads to a rise of the RMB stock in Hong Kong, so there is a clear phenomenon of RMB substituting Hong Kong dollars (HKDs) in Hong Kong. This paper studies the substitution effect of RMB and HKD from both theoretical and empirical aspects, and puts forward policy recommendations based on the research results.

This chapter explores Hong Kong's future as a major public securities market. It concludes that Hong Kong has the potential to become one of the world's major – if not the number one – public securities market in the coming decades. However, there are four major factors that will affect how much this potential is realized: (1) How Hong Kong's market is treated by the Central Government in Beijing vis-a-vis its competitors in Shanghai and Shenzhen. If Hong Kong is allowed full access to the Chinese saver/investor and Chinese firms are allowed the choice of listing in Hong Kong, then Hong Kong will outcompete its Shanghai and Shenzhen rivals regardless of whether Shanghai and Shenzhen are opened for listings by foreign companies and to foreign investors. Hong Kong will thrive in an environment of no capital constraints on the renminbi. Conversely, a retention of the renminbi capital controls combined with free access of foreign firms to list on Shanghai or Shenzhen and/or restrictions on Chinese firms listing in Hong Kong would be very harmful to Hong Kong. (2) How skillful and aggressive Hong Kong and the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. are in making Hong Kong into a global competitor as a securities market. Hong Kong's principal competitors on a global basis are New York and London and the new electronic exchanges that have sprung up in Western countries. (3) The full force of new technologies is not inhibited in Hong Kong to protect a monopoly position of the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. (4) Hong Kong maintains its stable relationship with the US dollar, no capital controls are introduced in Hong Kong, and that Beijing continues to respect Hong Kong's information freedom as specified in the Basic Law.

The Dim Sum bond market in Hong Kong, which allows China to regulate the amount of offshore yuans that flow back into the mainland, has grown steadily since its inception in 2007 and is expected to surpass in 2013 the threshold level that would attract insurers and long-term issuers to the market. Yet, the market has not matured sufficiently relative to the yuan deposit market in Hong Kong that has grown at a much faster pace on account of trade liberalization and the use of yuans in China’s international trade settlements. Even though Hong Kong has fulfilled its role as an offshore currency center for the yuan, it is being challenged by Taiwan, Singapore, and London in terms of being the premier location for the issuance of yuan-denominated bonds outside of Mainland China.

This study investigates the linkage between the Hong Kong stock market and Singapore stock market and the U.S. stock market during the pre- and post-East Asia Financial Crisis in 1997 and 1998. It uses multivariate regression models to study the impact of Hong Kong’s fixed exchange rate system and Singapore’s free-floating exchange rate system on their respective stock markets. The results indicate that the exchange rate is not a significant determinant of linkage between the U.S. and the two Asian stock markets, but the evidence suggests that stronger post-crisis relationships between the U.S. and the two Asian stock markets. The evidence also supports a stronger short-run relationship between the U.S. and Hong Kong stock markets relative to that between the U.S. and Singapore stock markets.

This chapter examines the rationale behind the imposition of stock market controls in Hong Kong and evaluates the effectiveness of this market intervention policy by the Hong Kong regulators during the Asian currency crisis of 1997. The chapter finds that the Hong Kong authorities invoked such a controversial policy measure only when containing the crisis through traditional policy instruments such as informal agreements with banks was no longer feasible. From their viewpoint, the crisis bore no relationship to Hong Kong's economic fundamentals and was dictated instead by the ‘herd like’ behavior of foreign portfolio investors. They viewed stock market controls as necessary instruments to fend off dual speculative attacks on both the Hong Kong dollar and stock market. The chapter concludes that the imposition of stock market controls yielded positive results in that they stabilized the Hong Kong dollar and stock market, thereby improving economic growth prospects in Hong Kong.

This paper reports on a study about applying regression techniques to identify the determinants and functional forms of tourism hotel expenditure in Hong Kong. Annual time series data from 1983 to 1997 of average room rate, the number of visitor arrivals, the service price index, and hotel accommodation rates were hypothesised to affect tourism hotel expenditure. Seven exogenous variables were selected for regression model development in both linear and log‐linear forms. In view of the potential problems of multicollinearity between the independent variables, and therefore the associated instability of the regression coefficients, stepwise regression analyses were employed to improve the initial model. Final empirical results showed that the hotel expenditure in Hong Kong could be explained by four of the seven exogenous variables. A log‐linear form of the regression model appeared to slightly outperform the linear form.

This paper looks at one relatively less‐visited issue in market timing: switching investments on common stocks between different stock markets, namely, “intermarket timing”. By employing the stock price data for the period of 1992‐2002 from a developed market, Hong Kong, and two emerging markets, Shanghai and Shenzhen, this paper examines potential gains and the required predictive accuracy for intermarket timing between Hong Kong and Shanghai, and between Hong Kong and Shenzhen from Hong Kong investors’ perspective. Potential gains could be obtained from such timing strategy, and the non‐high minimum forecasting ability required for successful timing is fairly attainable for Hong Kong investors, even after taking into account the assumed transaction costs.

The Hong Kong government emphasizes very much the importance of achieving the “financial stability” objective, and has been very successful in controlling expenditure growth and in accumulating fiscal reserves. This remarkable performance is attributed to adhering consistently to budgetary guidelines. Managing the financial budgets through budgetary guidelines is a unique feature of the Hong Kong fiscal system. Discusses the role of budgetary guidelines in the Hong Kong fiscal system, and reviews the evolution of these budgetary guidelines since the early 1970s. It turns out that the guideline on expenditure growth is the most important budgetary guideline. Fiscal performance is assessed against these budgetary guidelines. With the financial stability objective having long been achieved, strict adherence to these budgetary guidelines would unduly constrain social and economic developments in Hong Kong. Recommends comprehensive review of the role and function of these budgetary guidelines.

This chapter analyses the impact of the global credit crisis on the money market and discusses its potential implications. The turbulence in money markets has spilled over to foreign exchange (FX)-swap markets amid a reappraisal of counterparty risks during the recent financial turmoil. We examine the situations of six currencies: the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Japanese yen, the Hong Kong dollar, and the Singapore dollar. We find that (i) the risk premiums have indeed gone in tandem with the spreads of money market rates over their corresponding overnight index swaps across the economies, a popular measure of potential banking insolvency; and (ii) the risk premiums bear a negative relationship with the strength of the spot rates of the respective currencies, which is consistent with the increased pressure in the money and swap markets.

We study up to 27 years of weekly data on nine currencies to examine the importance of the Japanese yen in exchange rate determination in North and Southeast Asia. We combine a time-varying methodology alongside a focus on long-run equilibrium. Our findings suggest that the Japanese yen had virtually no influence on Asian exchange rates in the 10-year period prior to the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. Since the crisis, the yen and the German mark in particular have exerted a significant influence over the region's exchange rates except for the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar and the Malaysian ringgit, which continue to be closely related to the US dollar.