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The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

Prior research examining cultural effects on customer service expectations has primarily used more generic Western cultural theory on an aggregate scale or with only a single variable to draw conclusions on a customer’s underlying reasoning for buying a service. This study aims to focus on culturally distinct clusters within non-Western nations, specifically exploring within-cluster differences in service expectations within the Confucian Asia cluster.

This study developed a measurement model of Chinese cultural values and service expectations, consisting of a three and five-factor structure, respectively. Data from a sample of 351 diners were analysed using SmartPLS software. The data was compared with similar studies within the Confucian Asia cluster to understand the culture effect on service expectations and within-cluster variations.

The findings underscore the varying importance of cultural values in shaping customer service expectations, emphasizing their relative, rather than equal, significance. The study provides insights into potential within-group differences in customer service expectations within the same cultural cluster – without losing sight of the fundamental cultural heterogeneity of the Confucian culture.

Managers should leverage the distinct cultural values of their operating country to gain insights into diverse customer groups, predict their behaviours and meet their needs and expectations.

This study offers valuable insights to both service management scholars and practitioners by focusing on culturally distinct clusters of non-Western nations and exploring their effects on variation in service expectations within these clusters.

This research takes Taijiang National Park (TNP) tourists as the study population while gathering the survey data via an online questionnaire. For the data analyses, it uses the importance–performance analysis (IPA) and the Kano two-dimensional quality model to evaluate the tourist satisfaction of TNP. Specifically, it considers the importance of service quality, classifies its service quality attributes, and suggests the priority for service improvement, rendering the TNP valuable reference points to realign service strategies. The study shows that the service quality attributes related to service personnel are the priority item to be improved, which could eventually enhance tourist satisfaction. In addition, brand differentiation could be achieved by improving the attractive quality items identified in this study to enhance tourist loyalty.

This paper aims to analyze the research highlights, evolutionary process and future research directions in the field of tourism forecasting.

This study used CiteSpace to conduct a bibliometric analysis of 1,213 tourism forecasting articles.

The results show that tourism forecasting research has experienced three stages. The institutional collaboration includes transnational collaboration and domestic institutional collaboration. Collaboration between countries still needs to be strengthened. The authors’ collaboration is mainly based on on-campus collaboration. Articles with high co-citation are primarily published in core tourism journals and other relevant publications. The research content mainly pertains to tourism demand, revenue management, hotel demand and tourist volumes. Ex ante forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic has broadened existing tourism forecasting research. The future forecasting research focuses on the rational use of big data, improving the accuracy of models and enhancing the credibility of forecasting results.

This paper uses CiteSpace to analyze tourism forecasting articles to obtain future research trends, which supplements existing research and provides directions for future research.

本文旨在分析旅游预测领域的研究重点、演化过程和未来的研究方向。

本研究使用 CiteSpace 软件对 1213 篇旅游预测文章进行了文 献计量学分析。

结果表明, 旅游预测研究经历三个阶段。机构合作包含国际机构合作和 国内机构合作, 需要持续加强国家之间的合作, 作者之间的合作多以校内合作为 主。高引用文章不仅发表在旅游领域的核心期刊还发表在其他专业的核心期刊上。 旅游预测研究的主要内容为旅游需求、收入管理、酒店需求和游客量。新冠疫情 期间的事前预测拓宽了现有的旅游预测研究。未来预测的研究重点在于合理利用 大数据, 提高模型的准确定以及提高预测结果的可信度。

本文使用 CiteSpace 分析旅游预测文章得到未来研究趋势, 既是对 现有研究的补充, 又为今后的研究提供方向。

Este artículo pretende analizar los aspectos más destacados de la investigación, el proceso evolutivo y las futuras orientaciones de la investigación en el campo de la previsión turística.

Este estudio utilizó CiteSpace para realizar un análisis bibliométrico de 1213 artículos sobre previsión turística.

Los resultados muestran que la investigación sobre previsión turística ha experimentado tres etapas. La colaboración institucional incluye la colaboración transnacional y la colaboración institucional nacional. La colaboración entre países aún debe reforzarse. La colaboración entre autores se basa principalmente en la colaboración dentro del campus. Los artículos con una alta cocitación se publican principalmente en las principales revistas de turismo y en otras publicaciones relevantes. El contenido de la investigación se refiere principalmente a la demanda turística, el revenue management, la demanda hotelera y los volúmenes turísticos. La previsión previa y durante la pandemia de la COVID-19 ha ampliado la investigación existente sobre previsión turística. La futura investigación sobre previsiones se centra en el uso racional de los big data, la mejora de la precisión de los modelos y el aumento de la credibilidad de los resultados de las previsiones.

Este artículo utiliza CiteSpace para analizar artículos de previsión turística con el fin de obtener futuras tendencias de investigación, lo que complementa la investigación existente y proporciona orientaciones para futuras investigaciones.

The friendliness of a destination is a key factor influencing tourists' destination selection. However, few studies have explored the construct of friendly tourism destinations. The purpose of this study was to establish a typological framework of friendly tourism destinations and compare older and younger adults' valuations of friendly destination attributes.

A mixed-method approach was used; in-depth interviews were conducted with 18 tourism stakeholders. Content analysis of the collected data was performed to construct a friendly tourism destination framework.

The framework consisted of 37 categories, which were classified into six themes: transportation and infrastructure, friendly tourism environments, government policies and tourism promotion measures, tourism products and activities, tourism information services and friendly residents. Furthermore, survey data from 1,153 respondents in Taiwan revealed that older adults valued friendly tourism environments and friendly residents more highly than younger adults did.

The participants were all from Taiwan; therefore, the results might not be applicable to tourists in other countries or regions. Furthermore, this study only compared the valuations of older and younger adults for the attributes of friendly tourism destinations.

Friendly tourism destination categories can provide a reference for tourists when making travel decisions. The framework provides destination marketers with a new tool for managing friendly tourism destinations. The findings can act as a reference for travel suppliers seeking to improve tourism-friendly services.

This study introduced a multifaceted framework for developing friendly tourism destinations from a holistic perspective. The results contribute to the tourism literature, revealing that younger and older adults have different valuations for the attributes of friendly tourism destinations.