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A case study about the creation of four scenarios that were used to make sense of the fast-moving pace of COVID-19 and the consequences for New Zealand tourism.

Adapting global visitor economy scenarios, a set of New Zealand tourism scenarios were constructed using a “back of house Shell” method and were supplemented with an expert panel to test the reliability and validity of the scenarios.

The four scenarios constructed were based on two critical uncertainties, namely economic recession and the moral dilemma of the consumer. Four scenarios were portrayed using film and TV titles to help participants visualise the scenarios. Crazy Rich Asians: Recovery represented many of the attributes of tourism in New Zealand prior to COVID-19 i.e. a focus on high value tourists from Asia. Contagion: Survival of the Fittest represented the reality of the COVID-19 pandemic. This Side of Paradise: ReThinking Tourism focused on rebuilding tourism based upon the principles of sustainability. The Colony: Gated Communities represented fortress destinations trying to keep COVID-19 at bay. Each scenario portrayed several features including a unique narrative, tourism, the tourist, vision, strategy and risks. The paper highlighted the trade-offs and conflicts between the scenarios as COVID-19 unfolded in different directions.

In a fluid situation, the paper reminds readers of the value of scenarios as framing devices to understand the fast-moving pace of COVID-19 when New Zealand was in unchartered waters. Thus, this study highlights how a scenario-planning process builds resilience and foresight to help stakeholders and actors make sense of crisis situations.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of the intensive lifestyle modification program on weight and metabolic syndrome risk reduction in rural obese women who have no underlying non-communicable diseases in Thailand.

A randomized controlled trial was conducted. In total, 60 healthy obese women aged 30-50 years were recruited and randomly assigned to either the intervention (n=30) or control (n=30) group after health screening. Tailored nutritional counseling, health education and exercise training were included in the lifestyle modification program. Behavioral modification techniques were also incorporated. The intervention was conducted weekly for the first eight weeks, then biweekly until week 16.

The student’s t-test was used to compare mean difference between groups. The total weight loss in the intervention group (n=29) was significantly higher, 7.6±2.9 kg, compared with the control group (n=30) who lost 0.7±1.4 kg (p<0.001). The intervention group lost weight 10.2 percent from baseline which was significantly higher than that in the control group (p<0.001). Systolic and diastolic blood pressures, fasting blood sugar, and waist circumference were significantly improved. Triglyceride levels slightly improved while high density lipoprotein cholesterol was slightly lowered. The intervention group showed a statistical reduction in abnormal components of metabolic syndrome compared with the control group, with the relative risk=0.24, 95% confidence interval=0.072-0.791, and p=0.018.

Compatibility of the program activities conducted by a health professional who had achieved healthy weight loss and accepted as a role model was a key to achieving effective weight loss and metabolic syndrome risk reduction in obese women in rural areas. The program should be integrated into the conventional practice of health care centers.