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Ukraine crisis can destabilise North Africa

Location:

NORTH AFRICA

North Africa is trying to mitigate the effects of rising energy and food prices caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine

South Sudan’s peace offers little respite

Location:

SOUTH SUDAN

Slow implementation and limited adherence mean the deal has brought few peace dividends

Ethiopia’s local conflicts will pose governance risks

Location:

ETHIOPIA

As attention focuses on developments at the national level, sub-national conflicts are boiling over

Non-bank finance faultlines may fuel explosive crises

Location:

INT

Non-bank financial entities hold half of financial assets, are highly leveraged, and are far less regulated than banks

Iran-Iraq-Turkey power and water woes will multiply

Location:

IRAN/IRAQ/TURKEY

With shared rivers hit by mismanagement, drought and climate change, irrigation and hydroelectricity face new challenges

African states will struggle to increase revenue

Location:

AFRICA

The average tax intake of African countries remains markedly low

COVID-19 control will be slow for most of North Africa

Location:

NORTH AFRICA

Most North African countries, except Morocco, are in the early stages of vaccination or have not even begun

Lower near-term EM risks raise long-run opportunities

Location:

INT

The near-term risk of defaults in emerging market (EM) sovereign debt markets is easing

US, China on changed GDP growth trajectories

Location:

INT

US GDP has outperformed pre-pandemic expectations, while China and other Asian giants have fallen short

Poor services do not dent rural African voter trust

Location:

AFRICA

Support for presidents remains high within underserved constituencies