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We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.

We estimate a cross-sectional model of expected entropy that uses several common risk factors to predict idiosyncratic entropy.

We find a negative relationship between expected idiosyncratic entropy and returns. Specifically, the Carhart alpha of a low expected entropy portfolio exceeds the alpha of a high expected entropy portfolio by −2.37% per month. We also find a negative and significant price of expected idiosyncratic entropy risk using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.

We propose a risk factor of idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.

The study examines the mediating role of accounting information quality (AQ), a proxy for firms' information risk, in firms' business strategy and the cost of equity (COE) nexus to highlight how AQ provides a mechanism through which a company's business strategy affects its COE.

The research study utilises data from 12,100 firm-year observations of United States (US) non-financial firms from 2001 to 2017, drawn from multiple databases, and employs the bootstrapping method of mediation analysis to test the indirect effect of AQ on the business strategy–COE relationship. The authors rely on Miles and Snow's two pure business strategy typologies, prospectors and defenders and use innate accrual quality and implied COE models to measure AQ and COE, respectively.

The results suggest that AQ partially mediates the relationship between business strategy and COE. The authors document that while innovative-oriented prospector firms have a lower AQ and a higher implied COE, efficiency-oriented defenders are associated with a higher AQ and lower COE. The higher (lower) COE of prospector (defender) firms is observed to be partly due to their lower (higher) AQ. The results indicate that while the idiosyncratic risk implied in firms' strategic orientation can directly influence their COE, the business strategy implications on firms' COE can be indirect through their AQ, a source of information risk.

Due to data limitation, it was not possible to measure all possible methods of measuring implied COE.

The paper highlights the role of firm's business strategy in pricing decisions by investors.

The paper contributes to the existing literature by providing evidence that AQ, a proxy for information risk, is a mechanism through which business strategy affects firms' COE. The authors thus complement extant literature to empirically test the information risk effect inherent in strategic orientation on security pricing.

Many studies have shown that from a theoretical and empirical point of view, downside risk-based measures of risk are better than the traditional ones. Despite academic appeal and practical implications, downside risk has not been thoroughly examined in markets outside developed country markets. Using downside beta as a measure of downside risk, this study examines the relationship between downside beta and stock returns in Indian equity market, an emerging market with unique investor, asset and market characteristics.

This is an empirical study done by using ranked portfolio return analysis and regression analysis methodologies.

The study results show that downside risk, as measured by downside beta, is distinctly priced in the Indian equity market. There is a direct positive relationship between downside beta and contemporaneous realized returns, indicating a premium for downside risk. Downside risk carries a higher weightage than upside potential in the aggregate return of the stock portfolios. Downside beta is a better measure of systematic risk than conventional market beta and downside coskewness.

The empirical results support the adoption of downside beta in practice and provide a case for replacing traditional beta with downside beta in asset pricing applications, trading and investment strategies, and capital allocation decision-making.

This is one of the first in-depth studies examining downside beta in Indian equity markets using a broad sample of individual stock returns covering a wide time range of 22 years. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first one to compare downside beta and downside coskewness using individual stock data from the Indian equity market.

This paper aims to examine the relationship between environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance and systemic risk sensitivity of Chinese listed companies. From the consumer loyalty and investor structure perspectives, the relationship between ESG performance and systemic risk sensitivity is analyzed.

Since Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) ESG officially began to analyze and track China A-shares from 2018, 275 listed companies in the SynTao Green ESG testing list for 2015–2021 are selected as the initial model. To measure the systematic risk sensitivity, this study uses the beta coefficient, from capital asset pricing model (CPAM), employing statistics and data (STATA) software.

The study reveals that high ESG rating companies have high corresponding consumer loyalty and healthy trading structure of institutional investors, thereby the systemic risk sensitivity is lower. This paper reveals that companies with high ESG rating are significantly less sensitive to systemic risk than those with low ESG rating. At the same time, ESG has a weaker impact on the systemic risk of high-cap companies than low-cap companies.

The study helps the companies understand the influence of market value on the relationship between ESG performance and systemic risk sensitivity. Moreover, this paper explains explicitly why ESG performance insulates a firm’s stock from market downturns with the lens of consumer loyalty theory and investor structure theory.

The paper provides new insights on the company’s ESG performance that significantly affects the company’s systemic risk sensitivity.

An increasing number of Danish municipalities wish to minimize tax avoidance due to profit shifting in their public procurement. To facilitate this effort, this study aims to develop a firm-level indicator to assess the potential risk of profit shifting (PS-risk) from Danish subsidiaries of multinational corporations to subsidiaries in low-tax jurisdictions.

Drawing from previous research, PS-risk is assumed to depend on the maximum difference in the effective corporate tax rate between the Danish subsidiary and other subsidiaries under the global ultimate owner, in conjunction with the tax regulations relevant to profit shifting. The top 400 contractors in Danish municipalities from 2017 to 2019 are identified and their relative PS-risk is estimated by combining information about corporate ownership structure with country-specific information on corporate tax rates, tax regulations and profit shifting from three independent data sets.

The PS-risk estimates are highly significantly positively correlated across the data sets and show that 17%–23% of the total procurement sum of the Danish municipalities has been spent on contracts with corporations having a medium to high PS-risk. On average, PS-risk is highest for large non-Scandinavian multinational contractors in sectors such as construction, health and information processing.

Danish public procurers may use the indicator to screen potential suppliers and, if procurement regulations permit, to ensure high-PS-risk bidders document their tax practices.

The PS-risk indicator is novel, and to the best of the authors’ knowledge, the analysis provides the first estimate of PS-risk in Danish public procurement.

This study aims to develop an interface management risk interaction modeling and analysis methodology applicable to complex systems in high-speed rail construction projects, reveal the interaction mechanism of interface management risk and provide theoretical support for project managers to develop appropriate interface management risk response strategies.

This paper introduces the association rule mining technique to improve the complex network modeling method. Taking China as an example, based on the stakeholder perspective, the risk factors and significant accident types of interface management of high-speed rail construction projects are systematically identified, and a database is established. Then, the Apriori algorithm is used to mine and analyze the strong association rules among the factors in the database, construct the complex network, and analyze its topological characteristics to reveal the interaction mechanism of the interface management risk of high-speed rail construction projects.

The results show that the network is both scale-free and small-world, implying that construction accidents are not random events but rather the result of strong interactions between numerous interface management risks. Contractors, technical interfaces, mechanical equipment, and environmental factors are the primary direct causal factors of accidents, while owners and designers are essential indirect causal factors. The global importance of stakeholders such as owners, designers, and supervisors rises significantly after considering the indirect correlations between factors. This theoretically explains the need to consider the interactions between interface management risks.

The interaction mechanism between interface management risks is unclear, which is an essential factor influencing the decision of risk response measures. This study proposes a new methodology for analyzing interface management risk response strategies that incorporate quantitative analysis methods and considers the interaction of interface management risks.

Mega construction projects (MCPs), which play an important role in the economy, society and environment of a country, have developed rapidly in recent years. However, due to frequent social conflicts caused by the negative social impact of MCPs, social risk control has become a major challenge. Exploring the relationship between social risk factors and social risk from the perspective of risk evolution and identifying key factors contribute to social risk control; but few studies have paid enough attention to this. Therefore, this study aims to systematically analyze the impact of social risk factors on social risk based on a social risk evolution path.

This study proposed a social risk evolution path for MCPs explaining how social risk occurs and develops with the impact of social risk factors. To further analyze the impact quantitatively, a social risk analysis model combining structural equation model (SEM) with Bayesian network (BN) was developed. SEM was used to verify the relationship in the social risk evolution path. BN was applied to identify key social risk factors and predict the probabilities of social risk, quantitatively. The feasibility of the proposed model was verified by the case of water conservancy projects.

The results show that negative impact on residents’ living standards, public opinion advantage and emergency management ability were key social risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Then, scenario analysis simulated the risk probability results with the impact of different states of these key factors to obtain management strategies.

This study creatively proposes a social risk evolution path describing the dynamic interaction of the social risk and first applies the hybrid SEM–BN method in the social risk analysis for MCPs to explore effective risk control strategies. This study can facilitate the understanding of social risk from the perspective of risk evolution and provide decision-making support for the government coping with social risk in the implementation of MCPs.

This paper aims to investigate the correlation between banking sector non-performing loans (NPLs) and the level of sustainable development.

Pearson correlation test statistic was used to assess the correlation between bank NPLs and sustainable development.

There is a significant positive correlation between banking sector NPLs and the level of sustainable development measured by the sustainable development index (SDI). The significant positive correlation is evident in European countries and in countries in the region of the Americas. There is a significant negative correlation between banking sector NPLs and achieving SDG3 and SDG7 in African countries and European countries. There is also a significant negative correlation between NPLs and achieving SDG10 in European countries. There is a significant positive correlation between banking sector NPLs and achieving SDG4 and SDG7 in the region of the Americas. There is also a significant positive correlation between NPLs and achieving SDG10 in African countries and in countries in the region of the Americas.

The present study is unique and different from other studies because it used a unique SDI to capture the level of sustainable development. The analysis is also unique because it covers several regions, which have not been covered in previous studies.

This paper aims to study the impact of tax avoidance on corporate risk. It also examines the moderating impact of tax risk on the relationship between tax avoidance and firm risk.

Based on available information in the DATASTREAM database about a sample of French firms listed in the CAC 40 from 2010 to 2022, the study uses the feasible generalized least squares method to investigate the impact of tax avoidance on firm risk and the moderating impact of tax risk. To check the robustness of our results, the authors changed the measurement of variables to identify potential biases and they significantly mitigated the endogeneity concerns using instrumental variable regression. Additional estimations were performed, first by using book-tax differences (BTD) and its components, i.e. temporary and permanent, and second by retesting hypotheses of years before the outbreak of the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

The results show that tax avoidance negatively affects the firm risk while tax risk has a positive effect on firm risk. More importantly, tax risk moderates the negative impact of tax avoidance on the firm risk. When tax avoidance is associated with a high level of tax risk, it leads to a high firm risk. Accordingly, tax avoidance should be considered in conjunction with tax risk when studying the effect put on the firm risk. Further analyses indicate that tax risk moderates the negative relationship between permanent BTD and firm risk.

The major limitation of this study is that it focuses only on French-listed firms, which make it difficult to generalize the results. Furthermore, the authors did not introduce governance variables into our models. An effective governance system and transparent information can reduce some of the perverse effects of risky tax avoidance by reducing the tax avoidance costs. The obtained results are of great interest to researchers who need to include the tax risk concept in their examination of the tax avoidance impacts.

The results are useful for investors wishing to make sound decisions regarding risky tax avoidance practices. Furthermore, the results may signal the need for French policymakers to make more efforts to reduce risky tax avoidance activities that are harmful to investors. They must enforce the existence and the reporting of a tax risk management strategy by firms.

This study contributes to the growing body of literature on the tax avoidance effects with a special focus on firm risk. This study provides the first French evidence of the role of tax risk in the relationship between tax avoidance and firm risk.

In the evolution process of building construction accidents, there are key nodes of risk change. This paper aims to quickly identify the key nodes and quantitatively assess the node risk. Furthermore, it is essential to propose risk accumulation assessment method of building construction.

Authors analyzed 419 accidents investigation reports on building construction. In total, 39 risk factors were identified by accidents analysis. These risk factors were combined with 245 risk evolution chains. Based on those, Gephi software was used to draw the risk evolution network model for building construction. Topological parameters were applied to interpret the risk evolution network characteristic.

Combining complex network with risk matrix, the standard of quantitative classification of node risk level is formulated. After quantitative analysis of node risk, 7 items of medium-risk node, 3 items of high-risk node and 2 items of higher-risk nodes are determined. The application results show that the system risk of the project is 44.67%, which is the high risk level. It can reflect the actual safety conditions of the project in a more comprehensive way.

This paper determined the level of node risk only using the node degree and risk matrix. In future research, more node topological parameters that could be applied to node risk, such as clustering coefficients, mesoscopic numbers, centrality, PageRank, etc.

This article can quantitatively assess the risk accumulation of building construction. It would help safety managers could clarify the system risk status. Moreover, it also contributes to reveal the correspondence between risk accumulation and accident evolution.

This study comprehensively considers the likelihood, consequences and correlation to assess node risk. Based on this, single-node risk and system risk assessment methods of building construction systems were proposed. It provided a promising method and idea for the risk accumulation assessment method of building construction. Moreover, evolution process of node risk is explained from the perspective of risk accumulation.