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1 – 10 of over 16000This paper provides a selective survey of the panel macroeconometric techniques that focus on controlling the impact of “unobserved heterogeneity” across individuals and over time…
Abstract
This paper provides a selective survey of the panel macroeconometric techniques that focus on controlling the impact of “unobserved heterogeneity” across individuals and over time to obtain valid inference for “structures” that are common across individuals and over time. We consider issues of (i) estimating vector autoregressive models; (ii) testing of unit root or cointegration; (iii) statistical inference for dynamic simultaneous equations models; (iv) policy evaluation; and (v) aggregation and prediction.
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Hassan Shirvani and Natalya V. Delcoure
The purpose of this paper is to examine the presence of unit roots in the stock prices of 16 OECD countries.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the presence of unit roots in the stock prices of 16 OECD countries.
Design/methodology/approach
Heterogeneous panel unit root tests developed by Im et al. (1997/2003) and Pesaran (2007).
Findings
Under the assumption of cross-sectional independence across the panel, the authors find no evidence of unit roots, thus failing to reject mean reversion in the stock prices for all the countries in the sample. However, under the assumption of cross-sectional dependence, an assumption borne out by the diagnostic test results, the authors find support for the presence of unit roots in the stock prices.
Practical implications
Thus, the use of more robust panel unit root tests seems to raise questions about the long-run predictability of the stock market, at least in the context of the OECD countries.
Originality/value
Thus, it seems that in the long run, an investment policy of buy and hold has still much to offer.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the contribution of financial development to poverty reduction in 11 South Asian developing countries using panel data set over the time…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the contribution of financial development to poverty reduction in 11 South Asian developing countries using panel data set over the time period 1990-2012.
Design/methodology/approach
The stationarity properties are checked by using Levin-Lin-Chu and Im-Pesaran-Shin panel unit root tests. The paper applied the Pedroni’s panel co-integration test to examine the existence of long-run relationship. The coefficients of co-integration are examined by fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and the causal link is checked by panel causality test.
Findings
The empirical results of Pedroni co-integration test confirm a long-run relationship between financial development and poverty reduction in South Asian developing economies. The findings of FMOLS method confirm a strong and positive relationship between financial development, trade openness, inflation and poverty reduction. Results of panel causality test indicate that there is a unidirectional causality running from financial development to poverty reduction variable.
Research limitations/implications
The present study recommends appropriate economic and financial reforms focussing on financial inclusion to reduce poverty in selected South Asian economies.
Originality/value
This paper is the first of its kind to empirically examine the causal relationship between financial sector development and poverty reduction in South Asian economies using modern econometric techniques.
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Anni Lindholm, Teemu Juhani Laine and Petri Suomala
The purpose of this paper is to identify the financial potential of new service businesses in the context of a global machinery manufacturer. The objective is to examine the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to identify the financial potential of new service businesses in the context of a global machinery manufacturer. The objective is to examine the supportive role of management accounting (MA) and control in service business development, which has not been empirically examined previously.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper takes advantage of an interventionist case study at a global machinery manufacturer and is empirically based on a comprehensive examination of the service business potential in the selected product category in different market areas. The researchers were actively involved in the accounting development activities underlying this paper.
Findings
The results suggest that the development of a global service business is necessary to build on market area characteristics. An analysis should combine financial information and equipment fleet information across product lines and organizational units.
Research limitations/implications
MA and control practices tend to require significant development to actually support the process of identifying and capturing the service business potentials. As the findings are limited to one case environment, further studies should address the longitudinal evolution of MA and control, and the choice and utilization of different performance measures, in similar contexts.
Practical implications
The paper provides managerial insights on how to utilize MA information and proposes ideas for performance indicators.
Originality/value
The process examined in this paper responds to the need for tools and techniques supporting service business development. MA and control could provide a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of service business profitability potential and support in identifying and prioritizing the possible avenues of realizing such potential.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development and rural-urban income inequality (INQ) in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development and rural-urban income inequality (INQ) in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries using panel data from 1986-2012.
Design/methodology/approach
The stationarity properties are checked by the LLC and IPS panel unit root tests. The paper applied the Pedroni’s panel co-integration test to examine the existence of the long-run relationship and coefficients of co-integration are examined by fully modified ordinary least squares. The short-term and long-run causality is examined by panel Granger causality.
Findings
The results of Pedroni co-integration test indicate that there exists a long-run relationship among the variables. The findings suggest that financial development increases rural-urban inequality whereas trade openness reduces rural-urban inequality. The empirical results of panel Granger causality indicate evidence of short-run causality confirms that economic growth and financial development causes rural-urban INQ.
Research limitations/implications
The present study recommends for appropriate economic and financial reforms focusing on financial inclusion to reduce rural-urban INQ in SAARC countries. Financial policies geared toward agriculture and rural population should be adopted to reduce the prevailing rural-urban INQ in SAARC region.
Originality/value
Till date, there is hardly any study exploring the causal relationship between financial development and rural-urban INQ for SAARC countries by using panel co-integration and causality techniques. So the contribution of the paper is to fill these research gaps in the literature.
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The rapid development of information and communication technology (ICT) over the past decade has enabled heterogeneous economic sectors to be more integrated, leading to a…
Abstract
Purpose
The rapid development of information and communication technology (ICT) over the past decade has enabled heterogeneous economic sectors to be more integrated, leading to a significant effect on nation’s growth across OECD countries. The objective of this study is to estimate the short run and long run inter-linkages among ICT, innovation technology, globalization, and economic growth for the period 1996-2017 in OECD countries.
Design/methodology/approach
This research provides some sophisticated methodologies by using principal component analysis to construct ICT and innovation indices and follow up by employing the panel cointegration test, pooled mean group regression, fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares as sophisticated estimation techniques, panel Granger causality and forecast error variance decomposition to examine the robustness of the causal association in the findings.
Findings
The empirical results herein suggest that ICT, innovation and globalization positively contribute to economic growth, while the causality findings reveal strong endogenous relationships among both ICT mobile and internet use, innovation development, globalization and economic growth in both short and long run. The findings further imply that OECD countries have yet to promote economic growth from ICT infrastructure expansion, the enlargement of technology innovation and the spread of globalization.
Practical implications
The particular policy recommendation is to reinforce the investment and establishment of a reliable ICT infrastructure as well as innovation technology to create sustained economic growth in this progressively interconnected world.
Originality/value
This study is valuable from policy and decision-makers’ perspective, as it highlights the significance of ICT infrastructure development, innovation enlargement and globalization to elevate the economic growth in OECD countries.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of policy options in financial dynamics (of money, credit, efficiency and size) on consumer prices. Soaring food prices have…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of policy options in financial dynamics (of money, credit, efficiency and size) on consumer prices. Soaring food prices have marked the geopolitical landscape of African countries in the past decade.
Design/methodology/approach
The sample is limited to a panel of African countries for which inflation is non‐stationary. VAR models from both error correction and Granger causality perspectives are applied. Analyses of dynamic shocks and responses are also covered and six batteries of robustness checks are applied, to ensure consistency in the results.
Findings
First, it is found that there are significant long‐run equilibriums between inflation and each financial dynamic. Second, when there is a disequilibrium, while only financial depth and financial size could be significantly used to exert deflationary pressures, inflation is significant in adjusting all financial dynamics. In other words, financial depth and financial size are more significant instruments in fighting inflation than financial efficiency and activity. Third, the financial intermediary dynamic of size appears to be more instrumental in exerting a deflationary tendency than financial intermediary depth. Fourth, the deflationary tendency from money supply is double that based on liquid liabilities.
Practical implications
Monetary policy aimed at fighting inflation only based on bank deposits may not be very effective until other informal and semi‐formal financial sectors are taken into account. It could be inferred that, tight monetary policy targeting the ability of banks to grant credit (in relation to central bank credits) is more effective in tackling consumer price inflation than that, targeting the ability of banks to receive deposits. In the same vein, adjusting the lending rate could be more effective than adjusting the deposit rate. The insignificance of financial allocation efficiency and financial activity as policy tools in the battle against inflation could be explained by the (well documented) surplus liquidity issues experienced by the African banking sector.
Social implications
This paper helps in providing monetary policy options in the fight against soaring consumer prices. By keeping inflationary pressures on food prices in check, sustained campaigns involving strikes, demonstrations, marches, rallies and political crises that seriously disrupt economic performance could be mitigated.
Originality/value
To the best of the author's knowlege, there is yet no study that assesses monetary policy options that could be relevant in addressing the dramatic surge in the price of consumer commodities.
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A major lesson of the European Monetary Union crisis is that serious disequilibria in a monetary union result from arrangements not designed to be robust to a variety of shocks…
Abstract
Purpose
A major lesson of the European Monetary Union crisis is that serious disequilibria in a monetary union result from arrangements not designed to be robust to a variety of shocks. With the specter of this crisis looming substantially and scarring existing monetary zones, the purpose of this paper is to complement existing literature by analyzing the effects of monetary policy on economic activity (output and prices) in the CEMAC and UEMOA CFA franc zones.
Design/methodology/approach
VARs within the frameworks of Vector Error-Correction Models and Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. Impulse response functions are further used to assess the tendencies of significant Granger causality findings. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results.
Findings
–H1. monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run in the CFA zones (broadly untrue). This invalidity is more pronounced in CEMAC (relative to all monetary policy variables) than in UEMOA (with regard to financial dynamics of activity and size). H2. monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-run in the CFA zones. First, the absence of cointegration among real output and the monetary policy variables in both zones confirm the neutrality of money in the long term. With the exception of overall money supply, the significant effect of money on output in the short-run is more relevant in the UEMOA zone, than in the CEMAC zone in which only financial system efficiency and financial activity are significant.
Practical implications
First, compared to the CEMAC region, the UEMOA zone’s monetary authority has more policy instruments for offsetting output shocks but fewer instruments for the management of short-run inflation. Second, the CEMAC region is more inclined to non-traditional policy regimes while the UEMOA zone dances more to the tune of traditional discretionary monetary policy arrangements. A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: implications for the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles; implications for credit expansions and inflationary tendencies; implications of the findings to the ongoing debate; country-specific implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity.
Originality/value
The paper’s originality is reflected by the use of monetary policy variables, notably money supply, bank and financial credits, which have not been previously used, to investigate their impact on the outputs of economic activities, namely, real GDP output and inflation, in developing country monetary unions.
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Allyn Young′s lectures, as recorded by the young Nicholas Kaldor,survey the historical roots of the subject from Aristotle through to themodern neo‐classical writers. The focus…
Abstract
Allyn Young′s lectures, as recorded by the young Nicholas Kaldor, survey the historical roots of the subject from Aristotle through to the modern neo‐classical writers. The focus throughout is on the conditions making for economic progress, with stress on the institutional developments that extend and are extended by the size of the market. Organisational changes that promote the division of labour and specialisation within and between firms and industries, and which promote competition and mobility, are seen as the vital factors in growth. In the absence of new markets, inventions as such play only a minor role. The economic system is an inter‐related whole, or a living “organon”. It is from this perspective that micro‐economic relations are analysed, and this helps expose certain fallacies of composition associated with the marginal productivity theory of production and distribution. Factors are paid not because they are productive but because they are scarce. Likewise he shows why Marshallian supply and demand schedules, based on the “one thing at a time” approach, cannot adequately describe the dynamic growth properties of the system. Supply and demand cannot be simply integrated to arrive at a picture of the whole economy. These notes are complemented by eleven articles in the Encyclopaedia Britannica which were published shortly after Young′s sudden death in 1929.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics in inflation-chaotic African…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics in inflation-chaotic African countries for the period of 1987-2010.Although in developed economies, changes in monetary policy affect real economic activity in the short-run, but only prices in the long-run, the question of whether these tendencies apply to developing countries remains open to debate.
Design/methodology/approach
Vector autoregresion (VARs) within the frameworks of Vector Error Correction Models and simple Granger causality models are used to estimate the long- and short-run effects, respectively. A battery of robustness checks are also used to ensure consistency in the specifications and results.
Findings
The tested hypotheses are valid under monetary policy independence and dependence, except few exceptions. H1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. For the first-half (long-run dimension) of the hypothesis, permanent changes in monetary policy variables (depth, efficiency, activity and size) affect permanent variations in prices in the long-term. But in cases of disequilibriums, only financial dynamic fundamentals of depth and size significantly adjust inflation to the cointegration relations. With respect to the second-half (short-run view) of the hypothesis, monetary policy does not overwhelmingly affect prices in the short-term. Hence, but for a thin exception, H1 is valid. H2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-term. With regard to the short-term dimension of the hypothesis, only financial dynamics of depth and size affect real gross domestic product output in the short-run. As concerns the long-run dimension, the neutrality of monetary policy has been confirmed. Hence, the hypothesis is also broadly valid.
Practical implications
A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles, credit expansions and inflationary tendencies, inflation targeting and monetary policy independence implications. Country-/regional-specific implications, the manner in which the findings reconcile the ongoing debate, measures for fighting surplus liquidity and caveats and future research directions are also discussed.
Originality/value
By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect monetary policy), we provide significant contributions to the empirics of money. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries.