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This paper aims to investigate how overconfidence bias affects financial market participants’ forecast accuracy based on the hard–easy effect concept of overconfidence research.

The authors adopt an experimental method for behavioural finance studies. In the experiment, the authors measure and capture participants’ forecast accuracy as well as their individual confidence level. In particular, participants make incentive-compatible forecasts, that is, the elicited forecast determines the participants’ financial rewards in real monetary gain/loss.

The results show that the hard–easy effect causes optimistic forecasts for hard-to-predict stocks, indicating that overconfident investors tend to make over-optimistic and less accurate price forecasts when making judgements on hard tasks. Consistent with the literature, the authors find evidence of a negative relationship between forecast accuracy and confidence level. The results also indicate that the overall relationship between overconfidence and forecast accuracy is driven by the price forecasts made for hard-to-predict stocks.

As per the authors’ knowledge, this paper is one of the first studies that provides empirical evidence directly showing the hard–easy effect in the relation between overconfidence and forecast ability in an experimental setting. This study uses an experimental design that specifically measures the hard–easy effect in a stock market scenario using professional financial information and real monetary incentives, which have not been used in any previous studies of the hard–easy effect.

The purpose of this study is to address why managers enter the excessive market. A comparison of the facts and perceptions of entrants relative to success in the market shows that many entrants are confident about the viability of their businesses and enter the market. Accordingly, the authors simulate market entry decisions to detect behavioral biases.

The authors adapted the entry decisions simulation method, which is supported by the theoretical foundations of signal detection theory (SDT) and signaling theory. The simulation model is implemented on the Anaconda platform and written in Python 3.

The results of this study suggest that overestimation relates to excess market entry. Also, the proportion of excess entry under difficult conditions is always higher than under easy conditions.

This research helps managers and firms think about their and their competitors' abilities and evaluate them before entering the market. Policymakers and practitioners can also design programs such as experiential learning to help entrants assess their skills.

So far, no research has investigated the role of overconfidence under different market conditions. Accordingly, this study contributes to the current market entry literature by disentangling the debate between absolute and relative confidence and by considering the role of task difficulty.

The paper aims to critically examine overconfidence in numeracy among higher education (HE) graduates and its impact on their employability. The paper discusses the extent to which graduates, because of higher qualifications, overstate their numerical abilities.

The paper is a review of the academic literature examining the theoretical significance of overconfidence in HE. The review subsequently draws on practice and policy reports that evidence graduates' overconfidence in numeracy and basic skills.

The article shows a significant interaction between the level of qualification and overstatement of numerical abilities. The analysis found that graduates do not always have an important basic skill such as numeracy whose impact on work performance is significant.

The findings are momentous for rethinking HE curricula, employee development in organisations and government skills strategy. The article advocates more inclusive and interpretive research for a greater understanding of the issues and offers useful data to policymakers and HE institutions in preparing graduates for work and decision-making. Further research in the field is required to enable the formulation of more authoritative conclusions.

A critical contribution of this reflection is to have linked the evidence from the academic literature with employer surveys about graduate basic skills to draw the attention to a vital issue affecting national and organisational productivity, thus substantiating anecdotal evidence about graduate overconfidence. This reinforces the value of systematic literature review in research, as it provides an opportunity for more informed policy formulation as well as extending the body of research.

Considers the issue that Chinese people are more confident than Americans when answering general knowledge questions. Suggests that this over‐confidence may be indicative of other biases, such as over‐confidence in the ability to retrieve information accurately from memory. Presents empirical results demonstrating that the Chinese subjects were not over‐confident in their estimate of retrieval accuracy. Suggests the accuracy‐confidence correlation for Chinese subjects was significantly higher than the correlation for Western subjects. Discusses implications for current theories of judgement research and consequences for marketing.

A recent change to audit workpaper review has been the movement toward delegating more review tasks to senior auditors and including more staff auditors in the review process. This study investigates the efficiency and effectiveness implications of this change. It considers the calibration of reviewers of different levels of experience on both conceptual and mechanical errors. The results reveal that reviewers are miscalibrated (overconfident) in their workpaper error judgments. No differences are found in the calibration of staff and senior auditors across hierarchical level or type of error. The implications for audit effectiveness are discussed in the paper.

The purpose of this paper is to examine if there exists a gender difference in overconfidence within an auditor population. Studies outside the accounting domain have found that men are more overconfident than women. It would be worthwhile to know if such a gender difference in overconfidence also exists within the auditor population. Such a gender difference could have far‐reaching consequences; among other things, it could explain why client firms with female audit partners have significantly higher audit fees. Because of substantial self‐selection and socialization it could however be that female auditors are as overconfident as their male colleagues.

As is common in the psychological literature, calibration tests were used to measure the degree of overconfidence of male and female auditors.

The results provide no evidence for a gender difference in overconfidence within a population of auditors and warrant against generalizing findings from non‐audit populations to auditors.

Consistent with previous research, overconfidence was treated as if it were a single construct. The different varieties of overconfidence may, however, not simply be interchangeable. It may be the case that one measure of overconfidence would produce a sex difference while the other would not.

This study contributes to the growing literature that examines the effects of gender on audit judgment and decision making. An important implication is that the results clearly warrant against generalizing findings from non‐audit populations to auditors.

This is the first study to investigate if a gender difference in overconfidence exists within an auditor population.

This study aims to propose a framework of bias in construction project dispute resolution (CPDR hereafter).

With reference to the literatures on effects of bias, manifestations of bias in CPDR were developed. Based on data obtained from construction professionals about their frequency of having these bias manifestations, the underlying constructs of biased behaviors were explored by a principal component factor analysis. A confirmatory factor analysis was further conducted to validate the framework of bias in CPDR.

Four types of bias were identified as the constructs that underlie biased behaviors in CPDR. These four biases were included in the bias framework proposed: preconception, self-affirmation, optimism and interest-oriented. The potency of these types of bias was also evaluated.

First, the findings inform that the existence of bias in CPDR is real. Early detection allows management to intervene and steer CPDR team back to rational courses. Second, this study suggests optimizing CPDR procedures to diminish the chance of bias occurring.

Bias is almost an uncharted area in CPDR. The study fills this research gap by conceptualizing the underlying constructs of biased behaviors. The findings inform construction professionals of the likelihood of practicing biased behaviors in CPDR. Repeated dispute decisions in the commonly used multi-tiered dispute resolution process would enable the creeping in of biases.

This meta-analysis reviews and summarizes the results of 34 studies to investigate the relationship between overconfidence and financial decision-making.

A correlation meta-analysis was conducted with three moderators of the relationship between overconfidence and financial decision-making examined: the type of overconfidence construct, the type of overconfidence measuring method and the type of financial decision-making.

It was found that the effect of overconfidence on financial decision-making was significant, but the magnitude of this effect was low. Additionally, indirect measures of overconfidence showed to have stronger effect than direct measures, and the overconfidence was mostly related to investment, followed by trading and innovativeness.

This was the first attempt to meta-analytically integrate results concerning the relationship between overconfidence and financial decision-making. Although overconfidence is described as a keystone for understanding financial decision-making, it was shown that it has rather limited effect on individuals' financial decisions. The findings suggest that indirect measures increase the overall effect and may cause the overvaluation of overconfidence in literature. The results call for more rigorous and consistent conceptualization of overconfidence in behavioral research.