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Executive summary
Publication date: 18 March 2024

ISRAEL/PALESTINIANS: Truce talks face many challenges

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES285910

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Article
Publication date: 20 March 2024

Priyanka Goyal and Pooja Soni

The present research study aims to explore the impact of the most recent Israeli–Palestinian conflict, which unfolded in October 2023, on global equity markets, including a wide…

Abstract

Purpose

The present research study aims to explore the impact of the most recent Israeli–Palestinian conflict, which unfolded in October 2023, on global equity markets, including a wide range of both emerging and developed markets (as per the Morgan Stanley Capital Investment country classification).

Design/methodology/approach

The market model of event study methodology, with an estimation window of 200 days and 28-day event window (including event day, i.e. October 7, 2023), has been employed to investigate the event’s impact on the stock markets of different countries, with 24 emerging countries and 23 developed countries. The daily closing prices of the prominent indices of all 47 countries have been analyzed to examine the impact of the conflict on emerging markets, developed markets and overall global equity markets. Additionally, cross-sectional regression analysis has been performed to investigate the possible explanations for abnormal returns.

Findings

The findings of the study suggest the heterogeneous impact of the selected event on different markets. Notably, emerging markets and the overall global equity landscape exhibited substantial negative responses on the event day, as reflected in average abnormal returns of −0.47% and −0.397%, respectively. In contrast, developed markets displayed resilience, with no significant negative impact observed on the day of the event. A closer examination of individual countries revealed diverse reactions, with Poland, Egypt, Greece, Denmark and Portugal standing out for their positive or resilient market responses. Poland, in particular, demonstrated significantly positive cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of 7.16% in the short-term and 8.59% in the long-term event windows (−7, +7 and −7, +20, respectively), emphasizing its robust performance amid the geopolitical turmoil. The study also found that, during various event windows, specific variables had a significant impact on the CARs.

Practical implications

The study suggests diversification and monitoring of geopolitical risks are key strategies for investors to enhance portfolio resilience during the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. This study identifies countries such as Poland, Egypt, Greece, Denmark and Portugal with positive or resilient market reactions, providing practical insights for strategic investment decisions. Key takeaways include identifying resilient markets, leveraging opportunistic strategies and navigating market dynamics during geopolitical uncertainties.

Originality/value

As per the authors’ thorough investigation and review of the literature, the present study is the earliest attempt to explore the short-term and long-term impact of the 2023 Israeli–Palestinian conflict on equity markets worldwide using the event study approach and cross-sectional regression analysis.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Executive summary
Publication date: 12 March 2024

PALESTINIANS: Politics blocks Gaza aid distribution

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES285804

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Expert briefing
Publication date: 13 March 2024

The Israel-Hamas conflict looms large in Jordanian public opinion, presenting possible domestic challenges to the government. It also places pressure on core foreign policy…

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB285821

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Expert briefing
Publication date: 6 March 2024

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

Abstract

Details

Police Responses to Islamist Violent Extremism and Terrorism
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-845-8

Graphic analysis
Publication date: 26 March 2024

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is playing a short-term tactical game, at home and abroad

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-GA286089

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Executive summary
Publication date: 29 February 2024

LEBANON/ISRAEL: Israel may at last implement threats

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES285568

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Executive summary
Publication date: 1 March 2024

PALESTINIANS: West Bank and Jerusalem anger may ignite

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES285594

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
Expert briefing
Publication date: 12 March 2024

Biden gave unusual prominence to foreign policy topics when laying out his main priorities for this year. Emphasising differences on foreign policy will be a central aspect of his…

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB285791

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
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