Search results
1 – 10 of 551Marko Korhonen, Mikko Puhakka and Matti Viren
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of aggregate suicides in 15 OECD countries during 1960-2010 using an economic model where changes in the welfare of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of aggregate suicides in 15 OECD countries during 1960-2010 using an economic model where changes in the welfare of consumers play the critical role for determining the number of suicides.
Design/methodology/approach
The hardship index based on economic theory is developed. In estimating the model, the authors apply the Pesaran et al. (2001) approach that allows the simultaneous estimation of the long-run and short-run parameters. To make sure that the authors’ findings are not specific to their method, the authors also use the generalized method of moments estimation in the panel set-up.
Findings
The authors found a relatively strong positive relationship between macroeconomic conditions, especially changes in aggregate consumption, and suicides. The relationship appears to be robust also in terms of the various control variables cited in the literature. The hardship index which is based on the habit persistence model of consumption predicts and explains the long-term behavior of suicides in most of the countries. Thus, the hardship index is a better economic explanatory variable than the unemployment rate or other proxies describing economic conditions.
Originality/value
Marrying the economic theory and econometric methods produces a reasonable empirical model to explain the connection between aggregate economic conditions and suicides.
Details
Keywords
Cleomar Gomes da Silva and Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the teaching of undergraduate macroeconomics.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the teaching of undergraduate macroeconomics.
Design/methodology/approach
To suggest a roadmap, based on a consumption function, to be used by instructors willing to teach the Lucas Critique subject.
Findings
Therefore, this paper proposes a lesson, which consists of three parts, to help undergraduates better understand the subject: (1) a grading exercise to bring the topic closer to students’ lives; (2) a Keynesian and an optimal consumption function, followed by an example based on an unemployment insurance policy; and (3) two optional topics consisting of extensions of the optimal consumption function and some empirical results related to the Lucas Critique.
Originality/value
The Lucas Critique influenced the evolution of research in macroeconomics, but it is not easily grasped in a classroom.
Details
Keywords
Debaditya Mohanti and Souvik Banerjee
The present study aims to evaluate the aggregate consumption function from the perspective of the Euler equation using Indian macroeconomic data. Further, to examine the…
Abstract
Purpose
The present study aims to evaluate the aggregate consumption function from the perspective of the Euler equation using Indian macroeconomic data. Further, to examine the robustness of the findings for India, other developing nations are also studied.
Design/methodology/approach
Quarterly time-series data from 1996:1 to 2020:3 on consumption and income in India are used to evaluate the alternative model proposed by Campbell and Mankiw (1989). The alternative hypotheses in the present study are tested by estimating models using the instrumental variable approach. The lagged changes in the quarterly average of 91-day Treasury bill yields are used as the nominal interest rate instrumental variables along with other lagged instrumental variables.
Findings
The evidence presented in this study suggests that aggregate consumption is better explained when the permanent income model incorporates rule-of-thumb consumers, that is, individuals who consume their current income along with those who consume their permanent income.
Practical implications
The new rule-of-thumb framework better explains some of the observed phenomena, such as why the expected changes in consumption are related to the expected changes in income, why the expected changes in consumption are unrelated to real interest rates (i.e. why the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is near zero) and why a high consumption/income ratio is usually followed by an increase in income growth.
Originality/value
This study adds to the limited literature on the Euler-based consumption function in developing economies.
Details
Keywords
Michael K. Fung and Arnold C. S. Cheng
Using a sample of developed and developing nations (including China and Hong Kong), this study examines the financial market and housing wealth effects on consumption. Housing…
Abstract
Using a sample of developed and developing nations (including China and Hong Kong), this study examines the financial market and housing wealth effects on consumption. Housing performs the dual functions as both a commodity providing a flow of housing services and an investment providing a flow of capital income. With an empirical framework based on the permanent income hypothesis, this study's findings suggest that a rise in housing price has both a positive wealth effect and a negative price effect on consumption. While the positive wealth effect is caused by an increase in capital income from housing investment, the negative price effect is caused by an increase in the cost of consuming housing services. Moreover, the sensitivity of consumption to unanticipated changes in housing price is related to the level of financial and institutional development.
Details
Keywords
The challenge of predicting changes in aggregate income and stock prices is one that has occupied the research agendas of economists. This paper aims to use the consumption–income…
Abstract
Purpose
The challenge of predicting changes in aggregate income and stock prices is one that has occupied the research agendas of economists. This paper aims to use the consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio to predict future income and stock prices.
Design/methodology/approach
To examine the stability of the consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio, the authors run a two-variable, two-lag reduced-form VAR in the vein of Cochrane (1994), using a lag of each respective ratio as exogenous to the VAR. Additionally, the authors estimate an AR(4) model for income and prices.
Findings
The consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio remain key to understanding future movements in income and stock prices. The consumption–income ratio significantly predicts future income in the USA, and aggregate income is easier to predict than consumption in the VAR model. The dividend–price ratio does not significantly predict future price growth. Consumption and dividend shocks have lasting impacts on income and prices.
Originality/value
The consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio are still key to understanding future movements in income and stock prices. The consumption–income ratio significantly predicts future income in the USA, and aggregate income is easier to predict than consumption in the VAR model. However, the dividend–price ratio does not significantly predict future price growth, a change from previous research from the 1990s, despite the increasing complexity of stock markets. Consumption and dividend shocks have lasting impacts on income and prices and appear to be significant drivers in both the short- and long-run variance in income and prices.
Details
Keywords
Gianni Betti, Neil Dourmashkin, Mariacristina Rossi and Ya Ping Yin
This paper seeks to measure and characterise the extent of consumer over‐indebtedness among the European Union (EU) member states.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper seeks to measure and characterise the extent of consumer over‐indebtedness among the European Union (EU) member states.
Design/methodology/approach
The study evaluates alternative measures of over‐indebtedness on the basis of the permanent‐income/life‐cycle theories of consumption behaviour and adopts a subjective approach in identifying over‐indebted households on the basis of European household survey data. It then investigates the main characteristics of over‐indebted households.
Findings
The empirical results reveal that over‐indebtedness was a significant problem across EU member states in the mid‐1990s. Moreover, an inverse relationship emerged between the extent of the over‐indebtedness problem and the extent of consumer borrowing across EU countries.
Research limitations/implications
Anecdotal evidence seemed to suggest that some main factors behind over‐indebtedness could be “market failure” on the credit market, the existence of liquidity constraints and lack of access to formal credit markets. However, a comprehensive and rigorous investigation of the extent and determinants of over‐indebtedness can only be achieved through analysis of more extended household data sets, particularly panel data.
Practical implications
The EU credit markets exhibited certain symptoms of “market failure”, on the one hand, and there was also need for further financial liberalisation in the Southern European countries, on the other hand.
Originality/value
The paper provides a first systematic evaluation of existing measures of consumer over‐indebtedness as well as the first EU‐wide empirical investigation of the problem. It should provide valuable information to the credit industry as well as financial regulatory bodies.
Details
Keywords
Salman Ahmed Shaikh, Mohd Adib Ismail, Abdul Ghafar Ismail, Shahida Shahimi and Muhammad Hakimi Mohd Shafiai
This study aims to examine the consumption behaviour in Organization of Islamic Cooperation countries.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the consumption behaviour in Organization of Islamic Cooperation countries.
Design/methodology/approach
Using time series and panel data, this study estimates rational expectations permanent income hypothesis model and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, and examines the response in consumption to expected and unexpected changes in income.
Findings
The evidence supports the phenomenon of loss aversion. The response of consumption to unexpected income changes is statistically significant in only one-third of the countries in the sample. Conversely, the response of consumption to expected income changes is statistically as well as economically significant in one-fourth of the countries in the sample. The intertemporal elasticity of substitution is also statistically insignificant in majority of OIC countries in the sample.
Practical implications
The evidence in support of loss aversion in preferences could help in explaining the low penetration of equity-based risk sharing instruments in Islamic finance.
Social implications
The excess sensitivity of consumption to income suggests that redistribution efforts to enhance incomes of poor households could help in enhancing their consumption levels.
Originality/value
The study takes a comprehensive sample across time and space for OIC countries as compared to previous studies and also adjusts the budget constraint for Zakat.
Details
Keywords
Shengliang Deng and Xiaotong Jin
Until now, traditional western consumption theories have not been able to adequately explain the consumption behavior of Chinese residents in the economic transitional period…
Abstract
Purpose
Until now, traditional western consumption theories have not been able to adequately explain the consumption behavior of Chinese residents in the economic transitional period. Based on annual data from 1986 to 2004, the purpose of this paper is to examine the excess sensitivity of consumption through a variable parameter model.
Design/methodology/approach
A regression model was used to analyse annual consumption data from 1986 to 2004 in China.
Findings
The analysis demonstrates excess sensitivity characteristic in Chinese residents' consumption in the economic transitional period.
Research limitations/implications
The paper concludes that in order to make the demand stimulation policy in China more effective, it is necessary to take a series of measures to correct the excess sensitivity of consumption, so as to establish a healthy cycle of national economy. The paper has only explained excess sensitivity of Chinese residents' consumption from the point of view of economics. While consumption is an economic problem as well as a social problem, those factors beyond economics should not be excluded from the analysis.
Originality/value
This paper differs from former studies in that previous scholars failed to take into consideration the special economic characteristics in China's transitional economy. The variable parameter model this paper employed takes full consideration of such unique factors as economic expectations and systems changes during the transitional period so as to better explain Chinese people's consumption behavior and provide a new perspective to make government policies stimulate domestic demand more effectively.
Details
Keywords
This paper explores the role of Zakah in social cause marketing. Academic literature on Islamic economics, finance and management mostly deals with the links that exists between…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper explores the role of Zakah in social cause marketing. Academic literature on Islamic economics, finance and management mostly deals with the links that exists between Zakah and consumption, neglecting important and strategic links with social cause marketing. This paper emanated from need to outline social cause and the charitable role of Zakah in promoting Halal businesses, poverty alleviation and sustainable development. Most works in the field of Zakah did not foresee the role of marketing. This is a misjudgement, as this work showed that Zakah yields large and measurable social gains to help the society and a firm.
Design/methodology/approach
Secondary sources were used in writing this paper. Available literature in the form of journals, books, manuals and reports was referred to. As a conceptual work, the paper does not test hypothesis or pretends to provide empirical evidences. It uses mathematical economics in arriving at some of the conclusions. Findings were derived through deductions and critical discourses, not through crunching of primary data.
Findings
The paper shows how Zakah, Halal consumption and corporate social responsibility are connected and highlights the role of Zakah as a social marketing tool. It shows how Zakah affects consumption through marginal propensity of Zakah recipients who spend Zakah money on basic needs.
Research limitations/implications
The paper looks at the broad aspects of Zakah and social marketing. How to make Zakah a pillar of Islamic firms’ social cause programs shall be the focus of future academic works in this area.
Originality/value
The paper is unique in drawing attention of Islamic firms to the effectiveness of Zakah in building a corporate image. It draws the attention of firms, activists, academics and governments to functions of Zakah that have not been studied in depth.
Details
Keywords
Xiaotong Jin, Shengliang Deng and Ilan Alon
The paper aims to examine the consumption behavior of Chinese residents during economic transition. It explores whether Western theories of consumption are applicable to the…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper aims to examine the consumption behavior of Chinese residents during economic transition. It explores whether Western theories of consumption are applicable to the Chinese situation, and then tests the hypothesis based on Chinese traditional culture and dynamic nature of system change.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper opted for an empirical‐based approach. A regression model was used to analyze annual consumption data from 1986 to 2008 in China.
Findings
The paper provides empirical insights and suggests that under the influence of Chinese traditional culture and dynamic change of the Chinese economic system, Chinese urban residents exhibit a special consumption pattern of an intermittent and cyclical nature.
Research limitations/implications
The paper concludes that in order to make the consumption stimulation policy in China more effective, it is necessary to establish a series of measures such as establishing a sound social welfare system as well as narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor, which will substantially increase the buying power of the less‐privileged groups and thus will increase the overall spending in the society. Although the econometric model used in this paper is adequate, a different approach like time series econometrics may give us additional insights. Researchers are encouraged to test the hypothesis further by employing other methodologies. Second, due to the lack of its own theories in the emerging market, this study remains exploratory.
Originality/value
This paper fulfils an identified need to study the special consumption behavior of Chinese urban residents during the economic transition.
Details