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The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

This study aims to investigate low-carbon footprint travel choices, considering both destination attributes and climate change perceptions, and examine the impacts of nudging (a communication tool to alter individuals’ choices in a predictable way) on tourists’ preferences for carbon mitigation in destinations.

A discrete choice experiment questionnaire was administered to a sample of 958 Hong Kong respondents. Hybrid choice modeling was used to examine the respondents’ preferences for destination attributes and to explain preference heterogeneity using tourists’ climate change perceptions. The respondents’ willingness to pay for the destination attributes was also calculated to measure the monetary value of the attributes.

Destination type, carbon emissions and travel cost had significant effects on tourists’ choices of destination. Nudging increased tourists’ preference for low-carbon footprint choices. Tourists with higher climate change perceptions were more likely than others to select low-carbon destinations with carbon offset projects.

The findings of this study provide an impetus for destination management organizations to support local carbon offset projects, implement policies that mitigate carbon emissions and develop sustainable tourism to fulfill tourists’ demand for low-carbon footprint travel choices. Based on the findings, policymakers could promote sustainable tourism by publishing relevant climate change information on social media.

This study addressed a gap in the literature on tourist travel choice by considering carbon emission-related attributes and climate change perceptions and by confirming the role of nudging in increasing the choice of low-carbon destinations.

This paper aims to analyze the research highlights, evolutionary process and future research directions in the field of tourism forecasting.

This study used CiteSpace to conduct a bibliometric analysis of 1,213 tourism forecasting articles.

The results show that tourism forecasting research has experienced three stages. The institutional collaboration includes transnational collaboration and domestic institutional collaboration. Collaboration between countries still needs to be strengthened. The authors’ collaboration is mainly based on on-campus collaboration. Articles with high co-citation are primarily published in core tourism journals and other relevant publications. The research content mainly pertains to tourism demand, revenue management, hotel demand and tourist volumes. Ex ante forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic has broadened existing tourism forecasting research. The future forecasting research focuses on the rational use of big data, improving the accuracy of models and enhancing the credibility of forecasting results.

This paper uses CiteSpace to analyze tourism forecasting articles to obtain future research trends, which supplements existing research and provides directions for future research.

本文旨在分析旅游预测领域的研究重点、演化过程和未来的研究方向。

本研究使用 CiteSpace 软件对 1213 篇旅游预测文章进行了文 献计量学分析。

结果表明, 旅游预测研究经历三个阶段。机构合作包含国际机构合作和 国内机构合作, 需要持续加强国家之间的合作, 作者之间的合作多以校内合作为 主。高引用文章不仅发表在旅游领域的核心期刊还发表在其他专业的核心期刊上。 旅游预测研究的主要内容为旅游需求、收入管理、酒店需求和游客量。新冠疫情 期间的事前预测拓宽了现有的旅游预测研究。未来预测的研究重点在于合理利用 大数据, 提高模型的准确定以及提高预测结果的可信度。

本文使用 CiteSpace 分析旅游预测文章得到未来研究趋势, 既是对 现有研究的补充, 又为今后的研究提供方向。

Este artículo pretende analizar los aspectos más destacados de la investigación, el proceso evolutivo y las futuras orientaciones de la investigación en el campo de la previsión turística.

Este estudio utilizó CiteSpace para realizar un análisis bibliométrico de 1213 artículos sobre previsión turística.

Los resultados muestran que la investigación sobre previsión turística ha experimentado tres etapas. La colaboración institucional incluye la colaboración transnacional y la colaboración institucional nacional. La colaboración entre países aún debe reforzarse. La colaboración entre autores se basa principalmente en la colaboración dentro del campus. Los artículos con una alta cocitación se publican principalmente en las principales revistas de turismo y en otras publicaciones relevantes. El contenido de la investigación se refiere principalmente a la demanda turística, el revenue management, la demanda hotelera y los volúmenes turísticos. La previsión previa y durante la pandemia de la COVID-19 ha ampliado la investigación existente sobre previsión turística. La futura investigación sobre previsiones se centra en el uso racional de los big data, la mejora de la precisión de los modelos y el aumento de la credibilidad de los resultados de las previsiones.

Este artículo utiliza CiteSpace para analizar artículos de previsión turística con el fin de obtener futuras tendencias de investigación, lo que complementa la investigación existente y proporciona orientaciones para futuras investigaciones.

The main purpose of this research paper is to generate a holistic bibliometric study of the tourism industry and COVID-19 fields, to further investigate the current interests and trends emerging from scientific collaboration and thematic analysis and to identify research gaps that indicate future research directions.

This study conducts several analyses, which include the co-authorship and social network analysis, co-citation and keyword co-occurrence knowledge structures. The authors generate a knowledge map of the leading articles and link them with previous literature to elucidate the debates and consensus in research on COVID-19 and tourism.

Research interests concentrate in the USA, China, Europe and the Oceania areas, so more cross-continental collaborations are expected among them and with other regions. Popular topics are tourism sustainable transformation, crisis management and multidisciplinary fields like tourism, hospitality, information technology and environmental sciences. This paper also identifies underexplored topics for future investigation on the social, environmental, cultural and governance dimensions of sustainable tourism.

This paper contributes to guiding tourism researchers in identifying and finding publication references and future collaborations. Moreover, the investigation of knowledge structures could be beneficial for scholars hoping to broaden the current understanding of this field and discover potential for future tourism research, especially in the global pandemic and other severe health crises.

This study enriches the existing literature in the fields of tourism and the pandemic and highlights current interests and research trends exploring scientific collaboration, thematic analysis and knowledge mapping.

During the construction process of the China Railway Track System (CRTS) I type filling layer, the nonwoven fabric bags have been used as grouting templates for cement asphalt (CA) emulsified mortar. The porous structure of nonwoven fabrics endowed the templates with breathability and water permeability. The standard requires that the volume expansion rate of CA mortar must be controlled within 1%–3%, which can generate expansion pressure to ensure that the cavities under track slabs are filled fully. However, the expansion pressure caused some of the water to seep out from the periphery of the filling bag, and it would affect the actual mix proportion of CA mortar. The differences in physical and mechanical properties between the CA mortar under track slabs and the CA mortar formed in the laboratory were studied in this paper. The relevant results could provide important methods for the research of filling layer materials for CRTS I type and other types of ballastless tracks in China.

During the inspection of filling layer, the samples of CA mortar from different working conditions and raw materials were taken by uncovering the track slabs and drilling cores. The physical and mechanical properties of CA mortar under the filling layer of the slab were systematically analyzed by testing the electrical flux, compressive strength and density of mortar in different parts of the filling layer.

In this paper, the electric flux, the physical properties and mechanical properties of different parts of CA mortar under the track slab were investigated. The results showed that the density, electric flux and compressive strength of CA mortar were affected by the composition of raw materials for dry powders and different parts of the filling layer. In addition, the electrical flux of CA mortar gradually decreased within 90 days’ age. The electrical flux of samples with the thickness of 54 mm was lower than 500 C. Therefore, the impermeability and durability of CA mortar could be improved by increasing the thickness of filling layer. Besides, the results showed that the compressive strength of CA mortar increased, while the density and electric flux decreased gradually, with the prolongation of hardening time.

During 90 days' age, the electrical flux of the CA mortar gradually decreased with the increase of specimen thickness and the electrical flux of the specimens with the thickness of 54 mm was lower than 500 C. The impermeability and durability of the CA mortar could be improved by increasing the thickness of filling layer. The proposed method can provide reference for the further development and improvement of CRTS I and CRTS II type ballastless track in China.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and big data analysis may further enhance the automated and smart features of tourism and hospitality services. However, it also poses new challenges to human resource management. This study aims to explore the direct and indirect effects of employees’ AI perception on career resilience and informal learning as well as the mediating effect of career resilience.

This paper proposed a theoretical model of AI perception, career resilience and informal learning with perceived AI as the antecedent variable, career resilience as the mediate variable and informal learning as the endogenous variable. Targeting the employees working with AI, a total of 472 valid data were collected. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling with AMOS software.

Findings indicated that employees’ perception of AI positively contributes to career resilience and informal learning. Apart from the direct effect on informal learning, career resilience also mediates the relationship between AI perception and informal learning.

Research findings provide both theoretical and practical implications by revealing the impact of AI perception on employees’ career development, leaning activities, explaining how AI transforms the nature of work and career development and shedding lights on human resource management in the tourism and hospitality field.

本文提出了人工智能感知为前因变量、职业弹性为中介变量、非正式学习为内生变量的理论模型。以旅游业AI工作环境中的员工为研究对象, 本课题共收集了472份来自中国的有效数据, 并通过结构方程建模（SEM）来进行相关模型检验。

人工智能和大数据分析可能会使旅游和酒店服务更加自动化和智能化, 但这也对人力资源管理提出了新的挑战。本研究旨在探讨员工对人工智能（AI）的感知对职业弹性和非正式学习的直接和间接影响, 以及职业弹性的中介作用。

研究结果显示, 员工对人工智能的感知对职业弹性和非正式学习有积极影响。除了对非正式学习的直接影响外, 职业弹性在人工智能 (A I) 感知和非正式学习之间起中介作用。

本研究在以下几个方面具有重要的理论和实践意义：解释了人工智能感知对员工职业发展和学习行为的影响, 以及它是如何改变工作性质和员工职业发展的; 研究发现对旅游和酒店行业的人力资源管理具有实践指导意义。

La IA y el análisis de big data pueden potenciar aún más las características automatizadas e inteligentes de los servicios de turismo y hostelería. Sin embargo, también plantea nuevos retos a la gestión de los recursos humanos. Este estudio pretende explorar los efectos directos e indirectos de la percepción de la IA por parte de los empleados sobre la resiliencia profesional y el aprendizaje informal, así como el efecto mediador de la resiliencia profesional.

En este trabajo se propone un modelo teórico de percepción de la IA, resiliencia profesional y aprendizaje informal con la IA percibida como variable antecedente, la resiliencia profesional como variable mediadora y el aprendizaje informal como variable endógena. Dirigidos a los empleados que trabajan con IA, se recogieron un total de 472 datos válidos. Los datos se analizaron mediante un modelo de ecuaciones estructurales (SEM) con el software AMOS.

Los Resultados indicaron que la percepción de la IA por parte de los empleados contribuye positivamente a la resiliencia profesional y al aprendizaje informal. Aparte del efecto directo sobre el aprendizaje informal, la resiliencia profesional también media en la relación entre la percepción de la IA y el aprendizaje informal.

Los Resultados de la investigación proporcionan implicaciones tanto teóricas como prácticas al revelar el impacto de la percepción de la IA en el desarrollo profesional de los empleados, las actividades de aprendizaje, explicar cómo la IA transforma la naturaleza del trabajo y el desarrollo profesional, y arrojar luz sobre la gestión de los recursos humanos en el ámbito del turismo y la hostelería.

With the growing concern of various sectors of society regarding environmental issues and the promotion of sustainable development, green technology innovation is generally considered to be conducive to the long-term development of enterprises. However, because of the existence of agency problems, managers may have shortsighted behaviors. Then how will managers' shortsighted behaviors affect enterprises' green technology innovation?

This paper uses machine learning-based text analysis methods to construct a manager myopia index based on the data from A-share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2015 to 2020. We examine the impact of manager myopia on green technology innovation in companies.

Our study finds that manager myopia significantly inhibits green technology innovation in companies. However, when multiple large shareholders coexist and the proportion of institutional investors' holdings is high, it can alleviate the inhibitory effect of manager myopia on green innovation. Heterogeneity tests show that the impact of manager myopia on green technology innovation is relatively significant in non-state-owned and manufacturing companies, as well as in the electricity industry. Robustness tests demonstrate that our conclusions remain valid after using propensity score matching to eliminate endogeneity problems.

From the perspective of corporate governance, this paper incorporates managers' shortsightedness, multiple large shareholders and institutional investors' shareholding ratios into the same logical framework, analyzes their internal mechanisms, helps improve corporate governance, enhances green innovation capabilities and has strong implications for the implementation of national innovation-driven development strategies and the achievement of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” targets.

With the continuous improvement of social and economic development as well as the rising level of demand for spiritual life, the design of cultural and creative products has ushered in new opportunities and challenges. Therefore the research related to cultural and creative products design is an inevitable choice for industrial innovation and market competition. The article aims to analyze the frontier hotspots and trend evolution of theoretical research on cultural and creative design in China by presenting different research fields, personnel and institutions embodied by cultural and creative products, thus providing a forward-looking development reference for China's special cultural and creative product design practice.

In this paper, the visualized citation analysis tool — CiteSpace V is used to analyze and map the relevant literature of Chinese cultural and creative design in CNKI (Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure) as the data sources, through bibliometric methods, in order to study the application development of Chinese cultural and creative design and provide reference for the application research of Chinese cultural and creative industries.

With the improvement of China's comprehensive strength, cultural self-confidence and strategy are being paid more and more attention by scholars; with the future research of China's cultural and creative design theory, cross-integration becomes the future trend; with the gradual maturity of China's cultural and creative design methodology, how to choose the right method for pioneering research is a difficulty for the future development of cultural and creative design; with the continuous development of China's economy, the method construction of innovative cultural and creative industry system becomes the focus of future research; with the continuous progress of science and technology, the integration of emotion and product industry is the mainstream of future development on cultural and creative design.

Through an objective empirical analysis of the development of Chinese cultural and creative products, it will broaden the research horizons of relevant scholars, understand the development direction of China's cultural and creative industries, enrich the design practice application of Chinese cultural and creative products, enhance the understanding of international counterparts on Chinese cultural and creative design research and promote the exchange among international counterparts.