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The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

The purpose of this study is to improve communication success through barrier identification and analysis so that the identified barriers can help project teams establish effective information-exchange strategies.

The recent publications on construction communication about time management are reviewed. Then, the semi-structured interviews are performed with both questionnaires and audio recordings (n1 = 18). Next, the collected data are analyzed using both statistical measures on the questionnaire survey and qualitative coding analysis on the text transcripts from an audio recording. Particularly, the identified barriers are substantiated using a scientometrics approach based on the published articles (2011–2020, n2 = 52,915) for purposeful information-sharing solutions in construction time management. Furthermore, the intervention strategies from the top 10 most-cited articles are analyzed and validated by comparisons with the results from construction surveys and relevant studies.

Based on the discussed communication difficulties, five main barriers were identified during time-cost risk management: probability and statistical concepts, availability of data from external resources, details of team member experiences, graphics (and graphical presentation skills), and spatial and temporal (a.k.a. 4D) simulation skills. For the improvement of communication skills and presentation quality regarding probability and statistical concepts, project teams should emphasize context awareness, case studies and group discussions. Details of communication techniques can be adjusted based on the backgrounds, experiences and expectations of team members.

The dataset n1 has both size and duration limits because of the availability of the invited industry professionals. The dataset n2 considers the literature from 2011 to 2020. Any before-the-date and unpublished studies are not included in the study.

A thorough comprehension of communication barriers can help project teams develop speaking, writing and analytical thinking skills that will enable the teams to better deliver ideas, thoughts and meanings. Additionally, the established discussion on barrier-removal strategies may enhance time management effectiveness, reduce project delays, avoid confusion and misunderstanding and save rework costs.

This research calls for the awareness of communication barriers in construction project execution and team collaboration. The identified barriers and the established solutions enrich the approaches of construction companies to share information with communities and society.

This is the first identification model for communication barriers in the time management of the construction industry to the authors' knowledge. The influencing factors and the countermeasures of communication difficulties highlighted by the research were not examined systematically and holistically in previous studies. The findings provide a new approach to facilitate the development of powerful communication strategies and to improve project execution.

With the growing concern of various sectors of society regarding environmental issues and the promotion of sustainable development, green technology innovation is generally considered to be conducive to the long-term development of enterprises. However, because of the existence of agency problems, managers may have shortsighted behaviors. Then how will managers' shortsighted behaviors affect enterprises' green technology innovation?

This paper uses machine learning-based text analysis methods to construct a manager myopia index based on the data from A-share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2015 to 2020. We examine the impact of manager myopia on green technology innovation in companies.

Our study finds that manager myopia significantly inhibits green technology innovation in companies. However, when multiple large shareholders coexist and the proportion of institutional investors' holdings is high, it can alleviate the inhibitory effect of manager myopia on green innovation. Heterogeneity tests show that the impact of manager myopia on green technology innovation is relatively significant in non-state-owned and manufacturing companies, as well as in the electricity industry. Robustness tests demonstrate that our conclusions remain valid after using propensity score matching to eliminate endogeneity problems.

From the perspective of corporate governance, this paper incorporates managers' shortsightedness, multiple large shareholders and institutional investors' shareholding ratios into the same logical framework, analyzes their internal mechanisms, helps improve corporate governance, enhances green innovation capabilities and has strong implications for the implementation of national innovation-driven development strategies and the achievement of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” targets.

The main purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of digital transformation on enterprises' performance considering financing constraints in the capital market to explore whether digital transformation improves enterprises' performance through the financing constraints channel.

This study, using a panel data set of 14,669 observations of 2,858 non-financial enterprises that issued A shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2013 to 2019, theoretically and empirically tests the impact and mechanism of digital transformation on enterprise performance.

Digital transformation has a significant positive effect on enterprise performance; this conclusion remains the same after the robustness test and endogeneity problems are dealt with. Financing constraints play a mediation role between digital transformation and enterprise innovation. The effect of digital transformation on enterprise performance varies significantly by size, ownership and industry.

The theoretical contributions of this study not only enrich the literature on the economic benefits and mechanism of digital transformation but also expand the literature on the factors that influence enterprise performance. The practical contribution of this study is the reference that it provides for implementing decisions about enterprise digital transformation and formulating differentiated policies for government digital transformation.

The purpose of the study is to investigate the financing channels and carbon emission abatement preferences of supply chain members, and further examine the optimal contract design of the retailer.

This paper develops a low-carbon supply chain composed of one retailer and one manufacturer, in which the retailer provides trade credit to the manufacturer. Considering the cap-and-trade regulation, the manufacturer with uncertain yield makes decision on whether to invest in emission abatement. There are bank loan and trade credit to finance production for the manufacturer and green credit to finance emission abatement investment. Meanwhile, the retailer may provide the manufacturer with three kinds of contracts to improve emission abatement efficiency, namely, revenue sharing, cost sharing or both sharing.

The results show that the retailer prefers to offer financing service at lower interest rate, but trade (and green) credit financing is always optimal for manufacturer and supply chain. The investment in emission abatement is value-added to all players. The sharing contracts offered by the retailer at lower sharing ratios can realize Pareto improvement of the system regardless of the financing scheme. However, comparing with the revenue or cost sharing contract, the existence of optimal sharing ratios makes the both sharing contract more favorable to the retailer.

The findings provide guidance for the emission-dependent manufacturer in financing and emission abatement decisions, as well as recommendations for the retailer to offer loan service and sharing contract.

This paper integrates green credit into bank loan or trade credit to analyze the financing decision of the manufacturer with uncertain yield and further considers the influence of three kinds of sharing contracts introduced by the retailer on improving operational performance.

This paper investigates whether China's R&D tax deduction policy triggers firms to manipulate their R&D expenditures upward.

This paper employs the ratio of actual tax savings as a proxy for the benefits of the R&D tax deduction policy based on manually collected and systematically cross-checked data. The relationship between tax benefits and abnormal R&D spending is estimated in a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies for the period 2007–2018.

The findings suggest that tax deductions lead to positive abnormal R&D spending and that this deviation in R&D spending may be attributed to firms' upward R&D manipulation for tax avoidance. The results also indicate that this behavior is more significant for the period after the policy revision, in non-HNTEs (high and new technology enterprises), and in firms with a high ratio of R&D expenses.

It is difficult to establish a sophisticated and unified model to identify the specific strategy of upward R&D manipulation that firms use to obtain tax benefits.

Managers should take into account upward R&D manipulation when designing governance mechanisms. Policymakers in developing countries may further pursue preferential tax policies that cover every stage of innovation activities gradually; the local provincial governments need to leverage their proximity and flexibility advantages to develop a tax collection and administration system.

This study contributes to the understanding of the complex effect of R&D tax incentives and helps more fully illuminate firms' upward R&D manipulation behavior from the perspective of tax planning strategies, which are underexplored in previous research.

As the current Coronavirus 2019 pandemic eases, international tourism, which was greatly affected by the outbreak, is gradually recovering. The attraction of countries to overseas tourists is related to their overall performance in the pandemic. This research integrates the data of vaccination of different countries, border control policy and holidays to explore their differential impacts on the overseas tourists’ intention during the pandemic. This is crucial for destinations to built their tourism resilience. It will also help countries and industry organizations to promote their own destinations to foreign tourism enterprises.

This study proposes an analysis based on panel data for ten countries over 1,388 days. The coefficient of variation is used to measure monthly differences of Chinese tourists’ intention to visit overseas country destinations.

Results show that, for tourist intention of going abroad: border control of the destination country has a significant negative impact; daily new cases in the destination country have a significant negative impact; domestic daily new cases have a significant positive impact; holidays have significant negative impact; daily vaccination of the destination countries has significant positive impact; and domestic daily vaccination have negative significant impact.

First, there is a large uncertainty in studying consumers’ willingness to travel abroad in this particular period because of unnecessary travel abroad caused by the control of the epidemic. Second, there are limitations in studying only Chinese tourists, and future research should be geared toward a broader range of research pairs.

First, from the government perspective, a humane response can earn the respect and trust of tourists. Second, for tourism industry, to encourage the public take vaccine would be beneficial for both the tourism destination and foreign tourism companies. The same effect can be achieved by helping tourists who are troubled by border control.

First, this research provides suggestions for the government and the tourism industry to deal with such a crisis in the future. Second, this study found that vaccination has a direct impact on tourism. This provides a basis for improving people’s willingness to vaccinate. Thirdly, this study proves suggestion for the destinations to build tourism resilience.

This study analyzes the unique control measures and vaccination in different countries during the pandemic, then provides suggestions for the tourism industry to prepare for the upcoming postpandemic tourism recovery. This study is valuable for improving the economic resilience of tourism destinations. Additionally, it helps to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different restrain policies around the world.

This research presents machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic using multisource Internet data.

To develop the prediction models, this research utilizes multisource Internet data from TripAdvisor travel forum and Google Trends. Temporal factors, posts and comments, search queries index and previous tourist arrivals records are set as predictors. Four sets of predictors and three distinct data compositions were utilized for training the machine learning models, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF). To evaluate the models, this research uses three accuracy metrics, namely root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Prediction models trained using multisource Internet data predictors have better accuracy than those trained using single-source Internet data or other predictors. In addition, using more training sets that cover the phenomenon of interest, such as COVID-19, will enhance the prediction model's learning process and accuracy. The experiments show that the RF models have better prediction accuracy than the ANN and SVR models.

First, this study pioneers the practice of a multisource Internet data approach in predicting tourist arrivals amid the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the use of multisource Internet data to improve prediction performance is validated with real empirical data. Finally, this is one of the few papers to provide perspectives on the current dynamics of Indonesia's tourism demand.