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The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

This study aims to identify the key factors that influence the intention and behavior of Chinese consumers toward purchasing organic food. The extended theory of planned behavior (TPB) model is adopted as the underlying theory to explore the relationship between attitudes (ATT), subjective norms (SN) and perceived behavioral control (PBC) on consumers’ intention and behavior to buy organic food. Trust (TR) and the moderating role of short food supply chain preferences (SFSCPs) were integrated to address the research gap.

Three hundred three questionnaire responses were received from organic food buyers in China using a convenience sampling method. Structural equation modeling was used to analyze the data and to examine the relationship between the various constructs.

The results demonstrated that the purchase intention (PI) of Chinese consumers correlates positively with ATT, SN, PBC and TR. Additionally, the results show that consumers’ SFSCPs positively moderate the relationship between PI and purchase behavior (PB).

The findings of this study provide valuable insights for marketers to develop compelling messages that evoke positive ATT, establish consumer TR and integrate short food supply chains to drive PB. The study can also be useful to policymakers and other supply chain participants.

An increased understanding of the factors influencing Chinese organic food consumption can contribute to promoting healthier food choices, supporting sustainable agriculture and fostering environmentally friendly consumption habits.

This research contributes to the existing pool of knowledge by incorporating TR into the conventional TPB. The study also introduces SFSCP as a moderating variable on the relationship between PI and PB.

The main purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of digital transformation on enterprises' performance considering financing constraints in the capital market to explore whether digital transformation improves enterprises' performance through the financing constraints channel.

This study, using a panel data set of 14,669 observations of 2,858 non-financial enterprises that issued A shares on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2013 to 2019, theoretically and empirically tests the impact and mechanism of digital transformation on enterprise performance.

Digital transformation has a significant positive effect on enterprise performance; this conclusion remains the same after the robustness test and endogeneity problems are dealt with. Financing constraints play a mediation role between digital transformation and enterprise innovation. The effect of digital transformation on enterprise performance varies significantly by size, ownership and industry.

The theoretical contributions of this study not only enrich the literature on the economic benefits and mechanism of digital transformation but also expand the literature on the factors that influence enterprise performance. The practical contribution of this study is the reference that it provides for implementing decisions about enterprise digital transformation and formulating differentiated policies for government digital transformation.

With the growing concern of various sectors of society regarding environmental issues and the promotion of sustainable development, green technology innovation is generally considered to be conducive to the long-term development of enterprises. However, because of the existence of agency problems, managers may have shortsighted behaviors. Then how will managers' shortsighted behaviors affect enterprises' green technology innovation?

This paper uses machine learning-based text analysis methods to construct a manager myopia index based on the data from A-share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2015 to 2020. We examine the impact of manager myopia on green technology innovation in companies.

Our study finds that manager myopia significantly inhibits green technology innovation in companies. However, when multiple large shareholders coexist and the proportion of institutional investors' holdings is high, it can alleviate the inhibitory effect of manager myopia on green innovation. Heterogeneity tests show that the impact of manager myopia on green technology innovation is relatively significant in non-state-owned and manufacturing companies, as well as in the electricity industry. Robustness tests demonstrate that our conclusions remain valid after using propensity score matching to eliminate endogeneity problems.

From the perspective of corporate governance, this paper incorporates managers' shortsightedness, multiple large shareholders and institutional investors' shareholding ratios into the same logical framework, analyzes their internal mechanisms, helps improve corporate governance, enhances green innovation capabilities and has strong implications for the implementation of national innovation-driven development strategies and the achievement of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” targets.

During the construction process of the China Railway Track System (CRTS) I type filling layer, the nonwoven fabric bags have been used as grouting templates for cement asphalt (CA) emulsified mortar. The porous structure of nonwoven fabrics endowed the templates with breathability and water permeability. The standard requires that the volume expansion rate of CA mortar must be controlled within 1%–3%, which can generate expansion pressure to ensure that the cavities under track slabs are filled fully. However, the expansion pressure caused some of the water to seep out from the periphery of the filling bag, and it would affect the actual mix proportion of CA mortar. The differences in physical and mechanical properties between the CA mortar under track slabs and the CA mortar formed in the laboratory were studied in this paper. The relevant results could provide important methods for the research of filling layer materials for CRTS I type and other types of ballastless tracks in China.

During the inspection of filling layer, the samples of CA mortar from different working conditions and raw materials were taken by uncovering the track slabs and drilling cores. The physical and mechanical properties of CA mortar under the filling layer of the slab were systematically analyzed by testing the electrical flux, compressive strength and density of mortar in different parts of the filling layer.

In this paper, the electric flux, the physical properties and mechanical properties of different parts of CA mortar under the track slab were investigated. The results showed that the density, electric flux and compressive strength of CA mortar were affected by the composition of raw materials for dry powders and different parts of the filling layer. In addition, the electrical flux of CA mortar gradually decreased within 90 days’ age. The electrical flux of samples with the thickness of 54 mm was lower than 500 C. Therefore, the impermeability and durability of CA mortar could be improved by increasing the thickness of filling layer. Besides, the results showed that the compressive strength of CA mortar increased, while the density and electric flux decreased gradually, with the prolongation of hardening time.

During 90 days' age, the electrical flux of the CA mortar gradually decreased with the increase of specimen thickness and the electrical flux of the specimens with the thickness of 54 mm was lower than 500 C. The impermeability and durability of the CA mortar could be improved by increasing the thickness of filling layer. The proposed method can provide reference for the further development and improvement of CRTS I and CRTS II type ballastless track in China.

The construction of cement asphalt (CA) emulsified mortar can obviously disturb the slab status after the fine adjustment. To decrease or eliminate the influence of CA mortar grouting on track slab geometry status, the effects of grouting funnel, slab pressing method, mortar expansion ratio, seepage ratio and grouting area on China Railway Track System Type (CRTS I) track slab geometry status were discussed in this paper.

Combined with engineering practice, this paper studied the expansion law of filling layer mortar, the liquid level height of the filling funnel, the pressure plate device and the amount of exudation water and systematically analyzed the influence of filling layer mortar construction on the state of track slab. Relevant precautions and countermeasures were put forward.

The results showed that the track slab floating values of four corners were different with the CA mortar grouting and the track slab corner near CA mortar grouting hole had the maximum floating values. The anti-floating effect of “7” shaped slab pressing device was more efficient than fixed-joint angle iron, and the slab floating value could be further decreased by increasing the amount of “7” shaped slab pressing devices. After CA mortar grouting, the track slab floating pattern had a close correlation with the expansion rate and water seepage rate of CA mortar over time and the expansion and water seepage rate of the mortar were faster when the temperature was high. Furthermore, the use of strip CA mortar filling under the rail bearing platform on both sides could effectively reduce the float under the track slab, and it could also save mortar consumption and reduce costs.

This study plays an important role in controlling the floating values, CA mortar dosage and the building cost of projects by grouting CA mortar at two flanks of filling space. The research results have guiding significance for the design and construction of China's CRTS I, CRTS II and CRTS III track slab.

Grey target decision-making serves as a pivotal analytical tool for addressing dynamic multi-attribute group decision-making amidst uncertain information. However, the setting of bull's eye is frequently subjective, and each stage is considered independent of the others. Interference effects between each stage can easily influence one another. To address these challenges effectively, this paper employs quantum probability theory to construct quantum-like Bayesian networks, addressing interference effects in dynamic multi-attribute group decision-making.

Firstly, the bull's eye matrix of the scheme stage is derived based on the principle of group negotiation and maximum satisfaction deviation. Secondly, a nonlinear programming model for stage weight is constructed by using an improved Orness measure constraint to determine the stage weight. Finally, the quantum-like Bayesian network is constructed to explore the interference effect between stages. In this process, the decision of each stage is regarded as a wave function which occurs synchronously, with mutual interference impacting the aggregate result. Finally, the effectiveness and rationality of the model are verified through a public health emergency.

The research shows that there are interference effects between each stage. Both the dynamic grey target group decision model and the dynamic multi-attribute group decision model based on quantum-like Bayesian network proposed in this paper are scientific and effective. They enhance the flexibility and stability of actual decision-making and provide significant practical value.

To address issues like stage interference effects, subjective bull's eye settings and the absence of participative behavior in decision-making groups, this paper develops a grey target decision model grounded in group negotiation and maximum satisfaction deviation. Furthermore, by integrating the quantum-like Bayesian network model, this paper offers a novel perspective for addressing information fusion and subjective cognitive biases during decision-making.

Food sustainability is a world-acknowledged issue that requires urgent integrated solutions at multi-levels. This study aims to explore how food firms can improve their sustainability performance through digital traceability practices, considering the mediating effect of sustainability-oriented innovation (SOI) and the moderating effect of supply chain learning (SCL) for the food supply chain therein.

Hierarchical regression with a moderated mediation model is used to test the proposed hypotheses with a sample of 359 food firms from four provinces in China.

Digital traceability has a significant positive impact on the three pillars of sustainability performances among food firms. SOI (product innovation, process innovation and organisational innovation) mediates the relationship between digital traceability and sustainability performance. SCL plays moderating roles in the linkage between digital traceability and both product and process innovation, respectively.

This paper contributes as one of the first studies to develop digital traceability practices and their sustainability-related improvements for Chinese food firms; it extends studies on supply chain traceability to a typical emerging market. This finding can support food sustainability practice in terms of where and how to invest in sustainability innovation and how to improve economic, environmental and social performance.

This paper aims to analyze the research highlights, evolutionary process and future research directions in the field of tourism forecasting.

This study used CiteSpace to conduct a bibliometric analysis of 1,213 tourism forecasting articles.

The results show that tourism forecasting research has experienced three stages. The institutional collaboration includes transnational collaboration and domestic institutional collaboration. Collaboration between countries still needs to be strengthened. The authors’ collaboration is mainly based on on-campus collaboration. Articles with high co-citation are primarily published in core tourism journals and other relevant publications. The research content mainly pertains to tourism demand, revenue management, hotel demand and tourist volumes. Ex ante forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic has broadened existing tourism forecasting research. The future forecasting research focuses on the rational use of big data, improving the accuracy of models and enhancing the credibility of forecasting results.

This paper uses CiteSpace to analyze tourism forecasting articles to obtain future research trends, which supplements existing research and provides directions for future research.

本文旨在分析旅游预测领域的研究重点、演化过程和未来的研究方向。

本研究使用 CiteSpace 软件对 1213 篇旅游预测文章进行了文 献计量学分析。

结果表明, 旅游预测研究经历三个阶段。机构合作包含国际机构合作和 国内机构合作, 需要持续加强国家之间的合作, 作者之间的合作多以校内合作为 主。高引用文章不仅发表在旅游领域的核心期刊还发表在其他专业的核心期刊上。 旅游预测研究的主要内容为旅游需求、收入管理、酒店需求和游客量。新冠疫情 期间的事前预测拓宽了现有的旅游预测研究。未来预测的研究重点在于合理利用 大数据, 提高模型的准确定以及提高预测结果的可信度。

本文使用 CiteSpace 分析旅游预测文章得到未来研究趋势, 既是对 现有研究的补充, 又为今后的研究提供方向。

Este artículo pretende analizar los aspectos más destacados de la investigación, el proceso evolutivo y las futuras orientaciones de la investigación en el campo de la previsión turística.

Este estudio utilizó CiteSpace para realizar un análisis bibliométrico de 1213 artículos sobre previsión turística.

Los resultados muestran que la investigación sobre previsión turística ha experimentado tres etapas. La colaboración institucional incluye la colaboración transnacional y la colaboración institucional nacional. La colaboración entre países aún debe reforzarse. La colaboración entre autores se basa principalmente en la colaboración dentro del campus. Los artículos con una alta cocitación se publican principalmente en las principales revistas de turismo y en otras publicaciones relevantes. El contenido de la investigación se refiere principalmente a la demanda turística, el revenue management, la demanda hotelera y los volúmenes turísticos. La previsión previa y durante la pandemia de la COVID-19 ha ampliado la investigación existente sobre previsión turística. La futura investigación sobre previsiones se centra en el uso racional de los big data, la mejora de la precisión de los modelos y el aumento de la credibilidad de los resultados de las previsiones.

Este artículo utiliza CiteSpace para analizar artículos de previsión turística con el fin de obtener futuras tendencias de investigación, lo que complementa la investigación existente y proporciona orientaciones para futuras investigaciones.

Each stage in disaster management faces different challenges concerning information gathering, sharing, interpretation and dissemination. However, a comprehensive understanding of different information and communication technology (ICT) systems utilised for humanitarian disaster management is limited. Therefore, the paper follows a systems thinking approach to examine ten major man-made and/or natural disasters to comprehend the influence of ICT systems on humanitarian relief operations.

A longitudinal, multi-case study captures the use of ICT tools, stakeholders involvement, disaster stages and zones of operations for relief operations over the past two decades. A systems thinking approach is utilised to draw several inferences and develop frameworks.

Multiple ICT tools such as geographic information systems, online webpages/search engines, social media, unmanned aerial vehicles/robots and artificial intelligence are used for rapid disaster response and mitigation. Speed and coordination of relief operations have significantly increased in recent years due to the increased use of ICT systems.

Secondary data on the past ten disasters is utilised to draw inferences. The developed ICT-driven model must be validated during upcoming humanitarian relief operations.

A holistic understanding of a complex inter-relationship between influential variables (stakeholders, disaster stages, zones of operation, ICT systems) is beneficial for effectively managing humanitarian disasters.

Broadly classifying the ICT systems into surveillance, decision support and broadcasting systems, a novel ICT-enabled model for humanitarian relief operations is developed.