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Groundwater is an important source of water supply in arid and semi-arid areas. The purpose of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in an arid environment in Ilam Province, west of Iran.

A three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model (modular finite difference groundwater FLOW model: MODFLOW) was used to simulate the impacts of three climate scenarios (i.e. an average of a long-term rainfall, predicted rainfall in 2015-2030 and three years moving average rainfall) on groundwater recharge and groundwater levels. Various climate scenarios in Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator were applied to predict weather data.

HadCM3 climatic model and A2 emission scenario were selected as the best methods for weather data generation. Based on the results of these models, annual precipitation will decrease by 3 per cent during 2015-2030. For three emission scenarios, i.e. an average of a long-term rainfall, predicted rainfall in 2015-2030 and three years moving average rainfall, precipitation in 2030 is estimated to be 265, 257 and 247 mm, respectively. For the studied aquifer, predicted recharge will decrease compared to recharge calculated based on the average of long-term rainfall.

The decline of groundwater level in the study area was 11.45 m during the past 24 years or 0.48 m/year. Annual groundwater depletion should increase to 0.75 m in the coming 16 years via climate change. Climate change adaptation policies in the basin should include changing the crop type, as well as water productivity and irrigation efficiency enhancement at the farm and regional scales.

The purpose of this study is to simulate the climate change impacts on winter wheat production and evaluate the possibilities of using various varieties and shifting planting date as two climate change adaptation strategies in Kerman Province, Iran.

Two types of global circulation model and three scenarios for three periods were used. Daily climatic parameters were generated by LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator). The CERES-wheat model was used to simulate future winter wheat growth, development and production.

The results showed that CO₂ had no effect on the phenology of winter wheat, and the negative impact of temperature on the grain yield was higher than the positive effect of CO₂ enrichment. The length of the reproductive growth period of the winter wheat was significantly shortened as affected by the negative impacts of rise in temperature. The simulated results indicated that the grain yield of common (medium maturing) variety of winter wheat will decline, ranging from −0.27 to −18.71 per cent according to future climate changes. Adaptation strategies showed that the early maturing variety had a higher and more stable grain yield under climate change conditions than medium and delayed maturing varieties. Earlier planting date (20 October) increased wheat grain yield under future climatic conditions than common (November 5) planting date. In reverse, later planting (November 20) would accelerate harmful effects of climate change on wheat grain yield.

The results highlighted the potential of early maturing variety and early planting date as the appropriate agronomical approaches for mitigating harmful impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in arid regions.

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between domestic natural gas consumption and climate change in the Greater Dublin Region.

Based on historical climate and natural gas use data, a linear regression model was derived to estimate the impact of future climate change on natural gas consumption under different climate scenarios.

Generally, under controlled socioeconomic development, the climate scenarios by Hadley model and the Ensemble GCMs are likely to decrease future natural gas consumption per capita and related CO₂ emissions compared to present. These results indicate that climate change has become as one of the most important factors affecting the energy system.

This study contributes understanding of the long‐term impact of climate change on regional domestic natural gas use. It provides the national and local authorities a methodology to anticipate the potential impacts on domestic energy use and enable urban areas to maximise any benefits and minimise any losses from climate change.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the vulnerability of the important rangeland shrub, Atriplex leucoclada (Boiss) to both climate change and livestock grazing, within the Syrian rangelands as a representative landscape type of West Asia.

Ecologically based quantitative niche models were developed for both shrub species using maximum entropy and 13 spatially explicit GIS-based layers to predict current and future species distribution scenarios. Climatic variables varied over time in line with the predictions created from the HADCM3 global circulation model.

Results indicate that with grazing and climate change, the distribution of A. leucoclada will be reduced by 54 per cent in 2050, with the mean annual and minimum temperatures of the coldest month having the highest contribution in the model (28.7 and 21.2 per cent, respectively). The contribution of the grazing pressure, expressed by the overgrazing index, was estimated at 8.2 per cent.

These results suggest that the interaction of climate and increased grazing has the potential to favor the establishment of unpalatable species, while reducing the distribution of preferred plant species on western Asia rangelands.

Climate change reports from New Zealand claim that climate change will impact some cities such as Auckland from a heating-dominated to a cooling-dominated climate. The benefits and risks of climate change on buildings' thermal performance are still unknown. This paper examines the impacts of climate change on the energy performance of residential buildings in New Zealand and provides insight into changes in trends in energy consumption by quantifying the impacts of climate change.

The present paper used a downscaling method to generate weather data for three locations in New Zealand: Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch. The weather data sets were applied to the energy simulation of a residential case study as a reference building using a validated building energy analysis tool (EnergyPlus).

The result indicated that in Wellington and Christchurch, heating would be the major thermal load of residential buildings, while in Auckland, the main thermal load will change from heating to cooling in future years. The revised R-values for the building code will affect the pattern of dominant heating and cooling demands in buildings in Auckland in the future, while in Wellington and Christchurch, the heating load will be higher than the cooling load.

The findings of this study gave a broader insight into the risks and opportunities of climate change for the thermal performance of buildings. The results established the significance of considering climate change in energy performance analysis to inform the appropriate building codes for the design of residential buildings to avoid future costly changes to buildings.

The chapter discusses the effects of climate change on tourism development in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania by combining these countries into a single Eastern Baltic Sea Region. The chapter explores the current situation and investigates the trends that will affect the economic development if the present climate conditions are situated in historical context. The first part discusses how destinations can be better managed if they are informed by the scholarship on ecological modernization and updated by a coevolutionary approach to climate change. This discussion proceeds with an analysis of the impact climate change has on tourism following different scenarios of current and future climate conditions. The development of tourism in the Baltic countries is then assessed with references to sustainable development. Overall the chapter demonstrates how destinations can cope with the changing preferences of tourists even in the face of highly unpredictable climatic developments.

This study aims to present the climate change effect on potential evapotranspiration (ETP) in future periods.

Daily minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and precipitation weather parameters have been downscaled by global circulation model (GCM) and Lars-WG outputs. Weather data have been estimated according to the Had-CM3 GCM and by A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios in three periods: 2011-2030, 2045-2046 and 2080-2099. To select the more suitable method for ETP estimation, the Hargreaves-Samani (H-S) method and the Priestly–Taylor (P-T) method have been compared with the Penman-Monteith (P-M) method. Regarding the fact that the H-S method has been in better accordance with the P-M method, ETP in future periods has been estimated by this method for different scenarios.

In all five stations, in all three scenarios and in all three periods, ETP will increase. The highest ETP increase will occur in the A1B scenario and then in the A1 scenario. The lowest increase will occur in the B1 scenario. In the 2020 decade, the highest ETP increase in three scenarios will occur in Khorramabad and then Hamedan. Kermanshah, Sanandaj and Ilam stations come at third to fifth place, respectively, with a close increase in amount. In the 2050 decade, ETP increase percentages in all scenarios are close to each other in all the five stations. In the 2080 decade, ETP increase percentages in all scenarios will be close to each other in four stations, namely, Kermanshah, Sanandaj, Khorramabad and Hamedan, and Ilam station will have a higher increase compared with the other four stations.

Meanwhile, the highest ETP increase will occur in hot months of the year, which are significant with regard to irrigation and water resources.

The residential buildings sector has a high priority in the climate change adaptation process due to significant CO₂ emissions, high energy consumption and negative environmental impacts. The article investigates how, conversely speaking, the residential buildings will be affected by climate change, and how to improve existing structures and support long-term decisions.

The climate dataset was created using the scenarios determined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and this was used in the study. Different building envelope and Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems scenarios have been developed and simulated. Then, the best scenario was determined with comparative results, and recommendations were developed.

The findings reveal that future temperature-increase will significantly impact buildings' cooling and heating energy use. As the outdoor air temperatures increase due to climate change, the heating loads of the buildings decrease, and the cooling loads increase significantly. While the heating energy consumption of the house was calculated at 170.85 kWh/m² in 2020, this value shall decrease significantly to 115.01 kWh/m² in 2080. On the other hand, the cooling energy doubled between 2020 and 2080 and reached 106.95 kWh/m² from 53.14 kWh/m² measured in 2020.

Single-family houses constitute a significant proportion of the building stock. An in-depth analysis of such a building type is necessary to cope with the devastating consequences of climate change. The study developed and scrutinised energy performance improvement scenarios to define the climate change adaptation process' impact and proper procedure. The study is trying to create a strategy to increase the climate resistance capabilities of buildings and fill the gaps in this regard.

The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to show the impact of greenhouse gas emission scenarios on annual temperature and precipitation changes during three periods of the twenty-first century in Setif region by using two selected GCMs; and second, to show the importance of “Setif-Hodna” hydraulic transfers’ project, like a method to adapt to the water scarcity in the future.

This study investigates likely changes in annual temperature and precipitation over Setif high plains region (North-East of Algeria) under four Special Report on Emission Scenarios scenarios: A1B, B1, A2 and B2, between three time slices: 2030, 2060 and 2090. MAGICC-SCENGEN 5.3v.2 was used as a tool for downscaling the two selected general circulation models.

The projections of GFDLCM20 and GFDLCM21 indicate that annual temperature will increase under the four scenarios and across the three time slices. GFDLCM20 predictions indicate a general decrease in mean annual precipitation across the four scenarios, with average of −3.02, −2.47 and −1.07 percent in 2030, 2060 and 2090, respectively. GFDLCM21 show a high decrease, with values of −18.72, −27.2 and −31.9 percent across the three periods, respectively.

This work is one of the first to study the impact of greenhouse gas emission scenarios on annual temperature and precipitation changes over the region, and present the hydraulic transfers project “Setif-Hodna” like an adaptive strategy to limit the effect of water scarcity in this region.

This paper aims to develop a framework to assist the identification of robust adaptation options that account for uncertainty in future climate change impacts for the water sector.

The water evaluation and planning (WEAP) tool, is to identify future water resource vulnerability in the Glore sub‐catchment within the Moy catchment in the West of Ireland. Where water stress is evident, a detailed hydrological modelling approach is developed to enable an assessment of the robustness to uncertainty of future adaptation decisions. WEAP is coupled with a rainfall runoff model (hydrological simulation model), and forced using climate scenarios, statistically downscaled from three global climate models to account for the key sources of uncertainty. While hydrological models are widely applied, they are subject to uncertainties derived from model structure and the parameterisation of the catchment. Here, random sampling of key parameters is employed to incorporate uncertainty from the hydrological modelling process. Behavioural parameter sets are used to generate multiple future streamflow series to determine where the bounds within future hydrological regimes may lie and the ranges within which future adaptation policy pathways need to function.

This framework allows the identification of adaptation options that are robust to uncertainty in future simulations.

Future research will focus on the development of more site‐specific adaptation options including soft and hard adaptation strategies. This approach will be applied to multiple water resource regions within Ireland.

A robust adaptation assessment decreases the risk of expensive and/or mal‐adaptations in a critical sector for society, the economy and the aquatic environment.