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The paper analyzes the hedging efficiency of weather-indexed insurance for corn production in Northeast of China. The purpose of this paper is to identify the potential weather variables that impact corn yields and to analyze the efficiency of weather-indexed insurance under varying thresholds for payouts (strike values).

Statistical relationships between climate variables and crop yields are used to construct weather-indexed insurance that enable a farmer to hedge against adverse precipitation outcomes. Mean root square loss is used to compare the efficiency of various weather products.

Based on efficiency comparisons, it turns out that in some, but not all circumstances, cumulative rainfall (CR) insurance can be used to hedge weather risk. When CR explains one-third or more of the variation in corn yields, a hedge can offset the revenue loss caused by the corresponding weather risk; but when it explains much less of the yield variation, it is inefficient for hedgers to buy weather insurance. If CR explains variation in crop yields, it is increasingly efficient to employ CR-indexed insurance as strike values decline for put options or increase for call options.

The paper provides a method for calculating the premium for an insurance product that provides a payout if CR in a growing season is too low.

This research is important because it illustrates the potential benefits of using weather insurance as an agricultural risk management strategy in China.

This research study aims to illustrate the mapping of each consumer’s mental processes in a market-relevant context. This paper shows how such maps deliver operational insights that cannot be gained by physical methods such as brain imaging.

A marketed conceptual attribute and a sensed material characteristic of a popular product were varied across presentations in a common use. The relative acceptability of each proposition was rated together with analytical descriptors. The mental interaction that determined each consumer’s preferences was calculated from the individual’s performance at discriminating each viewed sample from a personal norm. These personal cognitive characteristics were aggregated into maps of demand in the market for subpanels who bought these for the senses or for the attribute.

Each of 18 hypothesized mental processes dominated acceptance in at least a few individuals among both sensory and conceptual purchasers. Consumers using their own descriptive vocabulary processed the factors in appeal of the product more centrally. The sensory and conceptual factors tested were most often processed separately, but a minority of consumers treated them as identical. The personal ideal points used in the integration of information showed that consumers wished for extremes of the marketed concept that are technologically challenging or even impossible. None of this evidence could be obtained from brain imaging, casting in question its usefulness in marketing.

Panel mapping of multiple discriminations from a personal norm fills three major gaps in consumer marketing research. First, preference scores are related to major influences on choices and their cognitive interactions in the mind. Second, the calculations are completed on the individual’s data and the cognitive parameters of each consumer’s behavior are aggregated – never the raw scores. Third, discrimination scaling puts marketed symbolic attributes and sensed material characteristics on the same footing, hence measuring their causal interactions for the first time.

Neuromarketing is an unworkable proposition because brain imaging does not distinguish qualitative differences in behavior. Preference tests are operationally effective when designed and analyzed to relate behavioral scores to major influences from market concepts and sensory qualities in interaction. The particular interactions measured in the reported study relate to the major market for healthy eating.

This is the first study to measure mental interactions among determinants of preference, as well as including both a marketed concept and a sensed characteristic. Such an approach could be of great value to consumer marketing, both defensively and creatively.

The purpose of this paper is to compare the ability of popular temperature models, namely, the models given by Alaton et al., by Benth and Benth, by Campbell and Diebold and by Brody et al., to forecast the prices of heating/cooling degree days (HDD/CDD) futures for New York, Atlanta, and Chicago.

To verify the forecasting power of various temperature models, a statistical backtesting approach is utilised. The backtesting sample consists of the market data of daily settlement futures prices for New York, Atlanta, and Chicago. Settlement prices are separated into two groups, namely, “in‐period” and “out‐of‐period”.

The findings show that the models of Alaton et al. and Benth and Benth forecast the futures prices more accurately. The difference in the forecasting performance of models between “in‐period” and “out‐of‐period” valuation can be attributed to the meteorological temperature forecasts during the contract measurement periods.

In future studies, it may be useful to utilize the historical data for meteorological forecasts to assess the forecasting power of the new hybrid model considered.

Out‐of‐period backtesting helps reduce the effect of any meteorological forecast on the formation of futures prices. It is observed that the performance of models for out‐of‐period improves consistently. This indicates that the effects of available weather forecasts should be incorporated into the considered models.

To the best of the author's knowledge this is the first study to compare some of the popular temperature models in forecasting HDD/CDD futures. Furthermore, a new temperature modelling approach is proposed for incorporating available temperature forecasts into the considered dynamic models.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the food security status of 150 households in Osun state of Nigeria. The study area was chosen because relatively little energy consumption data are available concerning this geographical location.

The study used both primary and secondary data. The suitable households sample was chosen by multi-stage random sampling technique. The methodology employed to group the households into either food secure or food insecure is by comparing daily per capita calorie consumption by each household with the threshold daily per capita calorie requirement of 2,710 kcal/day/adult equivalent. This method has proven to be efficient in measuring food security at household level.

The results of the study reveal that majority of the households surveyed are food insecure that is their daily per capita calorie intake falls below the recommended daily per capita calorie requirement. The food insecure households constitute 54 per cent, surplus index of 0.36 per cent and food insecurity gap of 0.0038.

The greatest limitation to this study is the inability to collect data on the distribution of income, budget share on foods and socio-economic characteristics of the households to determine how their food security status is influenced due to impediments such as time, limited resources to collect a complete dataset used for the study. Also, recalling accurately the foods eaten in the last 24-hour was difficult for some of the household heads especially the aged ones and precise measurement of foods portion were also not accurate in some cases.

The findings of the study will help the stakeholders in food sector in policy formulations and also serve as reference for other researchers who will work on similar topic.

The revelation that majority of the households are lacking in calorie intake will provide guidance for stakeholders in food sector to put in place efforts that will improve balance between food production and accessibility.

The study used original data collected directly from the households for the study using structured questionnaires and the reference materials from secondary sources are appropriately cited. Also, it is worthy to note that not many studies have been carried out in the study area on food security especially in the rural areas.

Major segments of the U.S. economy are affected by weather. With the emergence of weather derivatives, exposure to weather‐related risk has evolved from being merely accepted. As a result, weather risk management strategies are increasingly being adopted in strategic decision‐making by senior management. Weather derivatives enable managers to focus on core operating risks by trading away those business exposures related to temperature, precipitation, snow level, etc. These contracts offer a unique opportunity to discretely trade a new category of risk, which was previously considered to be an inevitable cost of doing business. This article describes the weather derivatives market and its contracts and outlines the principles of pricing and risk analysis in weather markets. In closing, the article discusses the application of these products for portfolio and business risk management using illustrative examples from the energy markets.

The purpose of this article is to assess the reliability of an in‐depth analysis on causation, preventability, and disability by two separate review teams on five selected adverse events in acute hospitals: pressure ulcer, postoperative pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis, postoperative sepsis, ventilator‐associated pneumonia and postoperative wound infection.

The analysis uses a retrospective medical record review of 1,515 patient records by two independent teams in eight acute Belgian hospitals for the year 2005. The Mann‐Whitney U‐test is used to identify significant differences between the two review teams regarding occurrence of adverse events as well as regarding the degree of causation, preventability, and disability of found adverse events.

Team 1 stated a high probability for health care management causation in 95.5 per cent of adverse events in contrast to 38.9 per cent by Team 2. Likewise, high preventability was considered in 83.1 per cent of cases by Team 1 versus 51.7 per cent by Team 2. Significant differences in degree of disability between the two teams were also found for pressure ulcers, postoperative pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis and postoperative wound infection, but not for postoperative sepsis and ventilator‐associated pneumonia.

New insight on the degree of and reasons for the huge differences in adverse event evaluation is provided.

Transformation of smallholder agriculture from subsistence to more commercially-oriented production is one of the strategies advocated for improving rural households' food security and general welfare. The purpose of this paper is to assess potential differential effects of smallholder commercialization intensity on the different dimensions of food security.

Using household data from rural Tanzania, the study employed Tobit regression and Generalized Propensity Score (GPS) approaches to analyze smallholder commercialization intensity and associated food security effects.

Results show that smallholder commercialization has heterogeneous effects on the different dimensions of food security. Specifically, lower levels of commercialization are associated with lower food availability, access, utilization and stability. At higher intensities of commercialization, smallholders have higher food availability and access but modest improvements in food utilization and stability. Findings suggests that heterogeneous effects of commercialization on food security and the multi-dimensional nature of food security are important aspects to consider in the design of strategies to improve smallholder agriculture for enhanced food security and welfare.

It is important to point out that while food security is still a complex phenomenon, one that cannot be analyzed easily, so is commercialization. This study has used only one of the many definitions of commercialization.

Most existing literature on smallholder commercialization groups farmers into commercial and subsistence-oriented households. However, smallholders commercialize at various levels of intensity. This paper, conversely, analyzes the potential effects of different levels of commercialization on the various aspects of food security. Further, unlike extensive literature that focus on a narrow definition of food security, this paper expands the evidence of the implications of smallholder commercialization on the different dimensions of food security namely, food availability, access, utilization and stability.