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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 June 2023

Tadhg O’Mahony, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jarmo Vehmas and Jari Roy Lee Kaivo-oja

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking…

Abstract

Purpose

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

Design/methodology/approach

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Findings

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

Research limitations/implications

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

Practical implications

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Social implications

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

Details

foresight, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 March 2024

Faruk Seyitoğlu, Ozan Atsız and Ayşegül Acar

This study was designed to contribute to the extant literature by discovering the perceptions of restaurant employees and managers toward equal opportunities in restaurant labor…

Abstract

Purpose

This study was designed to contribute to the extant literature by discovering the perceptions of restaurant employees and managers toward equal opportunities in restaurant labor and working in a diversity-rich restaurant work environment.

Design/methodology/approach

A qualitative research approach was utilized. Through in-depth interviews, data were collected purposefully from restaurant workers in different positions (e.g. managers, servers, chefs and cooks) in the USA.

Findings

As a result of content analysis, different perspectives emerged on equal employment opportunity and diversity in restaurant labor. While some employees and managers believe that restaurant labor has equal employment opportunities, others think there is a lack of equal employment opportunity and partial equal employment opportunity in the industry. Most participants perceive working in a diversity-rich restaurant work environment as beneficial (an opportunity to learn about different cultures and an opportunity to learn different experiences and approaches).

Originality/value

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to explore employees' and managers' perceptions of equal employment opportunity and diversity in the hospitality labor context, specifically restaurant labor. Therefore, the research findings will create value for scholars to understand the view on equal employment opportunity and diversity in restaurant labor. Further, it will assist practitioners in designing their labor structure regarding equal employment opportunity and diversity management for the future.

Details

Employee Relations: The International Journal, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0142-5455

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 July 2022

Qun Bai, Senming Tan, Zheng Yuelong, Jiafu Su and Li Tingting

This study investigates the credit supervision issue in rural e-commerce. By studying the trading strategies of buyers and sellers under different credit supervision measures and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the credit supervision issue in rural e-commerce. By studying the trading strategies of buyers and sellers under different credit supervision measures and the impact of different pricing strategies on the trading strategies of both parties, this paper proposes regulatory suggestions for the increasingly severe credit problems in rural e-commerce.

Design/methodology/approach

In the online agricultural product transaction between farmers and consumers, both parties' decision-making is a dynamic process. Using the copying dynamic model of the evolutionary game, this study establishes two evolutionary game models to explore the factors affecting credit supervision in the rural e-commerce transaction process. Then, the study provides corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.

Findings

First, credit supervision measures implemented by rural e-commerce platforms and the Government's legal system construction and infrastructure construction guarantees influence both parties' trust choices in rural e-commerce transactions. Second, price is a key factor affecting both parties' trading strategies. In the case of relatively fair prices, the higher the proportion of farmers who choose “low price” and “honest transaction” strategies, the easier that is for consumers to choose to trust farmers. In contrast, the higher the price, the higher the proportion of consumers who choose the “trust farmers” strategy, and the more willing farmers are to choose honest transactions.

Originality/value

This work develops a new approach for analyzing rural e-commerce credit supervision. Moreover, this study helps establish and improve the credit supervision mechanism of rural e-commerce and further realize the long-term sustainable development of the rural economy.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 52 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 September 2023

Mingzhen Song, Lingcheng Kong and Jiaping Xie

Rapidly increasing the proportion of installed wind power capacity with zero carbon emission characteristics will help adjust the energy structure and support the realization of…

Abstract

Purpose

Rapidly increasing the proportion of installed wind power capacity with zero carbon emission characteristics will help adjust the energy structure and support the realization of carbon neutrality targets. The intermittency of wind resources and fluctuations in electricity demand has exacerbated the contradiction between power supply and demand. The time-of-use pricing and supply-side allocation of energy storage power stations will help “peak shaving and valley filling” and reduce the gap between power supply and demand. To this end, this paper constructs a decision-making model for the capacity investment of energy storage power stations under time-of-use pricing, which is intended to provide a reference for scientific decision-making on electricity prices and energy storage power station capacity.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the research framework of time-of-use pricing, this paper constructs a profit-maximizing electricity price and capacity investment decision model of energy storage power station for flat pricing and time-of-use pricing respectively. In the process, this study considers the dual uncertain scenarios of intermittency of wind resources and random fluctuations in power demand.

Findings

(1) Investment in energy storage power stations is the optimal decision. Time-of-use pricing will reduce the optimal capacity of the energy storage power station. (2) The optimal capacity of the energy storage power station and optimal electricity price are related to factors such as the intermittency of wind resources, the unit investment cost, the price sensitivities of the demand, the proportion of time-of-use pricing and the thermal power price. (3) The carbon emission level is affected by the intermittency of wind resources, price sensitivities of the demand and the proportion of time-of-use pricing. Incentive policies can always reduce carbon emission levels.

Originality/value

This paper creatively introduced the research framework of time-of-use pricing into the capacity decision-making of energy storage power stations, and considering the influence of wind power intermittentness and power demand fluctuations, constructed the capacity investment decision model of energy storage power stations under different pricing methods, and compared the impact of pricing methods on optimal energy storage power station capacity and carbon emissions.

Highlights

  1. Electricity pricing and capacity of energy storage power stations in an uncertain electricity market.

  2. Investment strategy of energy storage power stations on the supply side of wind power generators.

  3. Impact of pricing method on the investment decisions of energy storage power stations.

  4. Impact of pricing method, energy storage investment and incentive policies on carbon emissions.

  5. A two-stage wind power supply chain including energy storage power stations.

Electricity pricing and capacity of energy storage power stations in an uncertain electricity market.

Investment strategy of energy storage power stations on the supply side of wind power generators.

Impact of pricing method on the investment decisions of energy storage power stations.

Impact of pricing method, energy storage investment and incentive policies on carbon emissions.

A two-stage wind power supply chain including energy storage power stations.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 123 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 October 2023

Dan-Yi Wang and Xueqing Wang

In construction projects, engineering variations are very common and create breeding grounds for opportunistic claims. This study investigates the complementary effect between an…

Abstract

Purpose

In construction projects, engineering variations are very common and create breeding grounds for opportunistic claims. This study investigates the complementary effect between an inspection mechanism and a reputation system in deterring opportunistic claims, considering an employer with limited inspection accuracy and a contractor, which can be either reputation-concerned or opportunistic.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper applies a signaling game to investigate the complementary effect between the employer's inspection and a reputation system in deterring the contractor's possible opportunistic claim, considering the information-flow influence of claiming prices.

Findings

This study finds that in the exogenous-inspection-accuracy case, the employer does not always inspect the claim. A more stringent reputation system complements a less accurate inspection only when the inspection cost is lower than a threshold, but may decline the employer's surplus or social welfare. In the optimal-inspection-accuracy case, the employer always inspects the claim. However, only a sufficiently stringent reputation system can guarantee the effectiveness of an optimal inspection in curbing opportunistic claims. A more stringent reputation system has a value-stepping effect on the employer's surplus but may unexpectedly impair social welfare, whereas a higher inspection cost efficiency always reduces social welfare.

Originality/value

This article contributes to the project management literature by combing the signaling game theory with the reputation theory and thus embeds the problem of inspection mechanism design into a broader socio-economic framework.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 August 2023

Eniola Abe, Pamela Dawson and Jason Scott

At the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic the United Kingdom Government implemented a policy to rapid discharge hospital patients into care homes. This study aimed to examine how the…

Abstract

Purpose

At the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic the United Kingdom Government implemented a policy to rapid discharge hospital patients into care homes. This study aimed to examine how the media in the United Kingdom portrayed hospital discharge to care homes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

This study was a qualitative document analysis. Four sources (Daily Mail, The Independent, The Guardian and BBC News) were selected to represent political orientations encompassing right-wing, centrist and left-wing perspectives, and were searched for mention of hospital discharge, care homes and Covid-19 pandemic between 1st January 2020 and 24th February 2022. Article text was copied verbatim into Microsoft Word documents prior to analysis. Data were thematically analysed, followed by coding the sentiment in the included articles as well as coding the sentiment of themes and sub-themes.

Findings

Of 722 identified articles, 133 were eligible for inclusion as the final corpus. Data represented a moralistic narrative consisting of four themes: (1) Government as villain, (2) care homes as antiheroes, (3) patients as ideal victims and (4) moral outcomes. Most of the corpus had a negative sentiment (78.1%). One theme, moral outcomes, had considerably more positive sentiment (32.4%) than others (range 15.1%–21.9%).

Originality/value

A moralistic argument for improving cross-boundary interactions between health and social care services is provided, and the media can play a role pushing cross-boundary working higher up the policy agenda. Future work should examine how direct stakeholders, including those working in healthcare and care home settings, perceived the discharge policy.

Details

Journal of Integrated Care, vol. 31 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1476-9018

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 March 2022

Vanita Tripathi and Aakanksha Sethi

The purpose of this study is to ascertain how foreign and domestic Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) investing in Indian equities affect their return volatility and pricing efficiency…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to ascertain how foreign and domestic Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) investing in Indian equities affect their return volatility and pricing efficiency. Further, we investigate how the difference in market timings affect the impact of ETFs on their constituents. Lastly, we examine how these effects vary during tranquil and turmoil periods in the ETF markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The study is based on quarterly data for stocks comprising the CNX Nifty 50 Index from 2009Q1 to 2019Q3. The data on holdings of 45 domestic and 196 foreign ETFs in the sample stocks were obtained from Thomson Reuters' Eikon. The paper employs a panel-regression methodology with stock and time fixed effects and robust standard errors.

Findings

Foreign ETFs from North America and the Asia Pacific largely have an adverse impact on stocks' return volatility. In times of turmoil, stocks with higher coverage of European, North American and Domestic funds are susceptible to volatility shocks emanating from these regions. European and Asia Pacific ETFs are associated with improved price discovery while North American funds impound a mean-reverting component in stock prices. However, in turbulent markets, both positive and negative impacts of ETFs on pricing efficiency coexist.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that examines the impact of domestic as well as foreign ETFs on the equities of an emerging market. Furthermore, the study is unique as we investigate how the effects of ETFs vary in turbulent and tranquil markets. Moreover, the paper examines the role of asynchronous market timings in determining the ETF impact. The paper adds to the growing literature on the unintended consequences of index-linked products.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 January 2023

Niloofar Zamani, Maryam Esmaeili and Jiang Zhang

This study aims to examine the value of the call option contract in hedging the risks in the supply chain. The decentralized supply chain without call option contract is first…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the value of the call option contract in hedging the risks in the supply chain. The decentralized supply chain without call option contract is first studied as the criterion model for evaluations. This paper addresses several questions: What will be the optimal manufacturer’s production quantity, retailer’s ordering and pricing policies in the presence of random demand and random yield by applying the downconversion approach? How will the call option contract influence the optimal decisions for the members of the supply chain? Can the risk from randomness be divided among the members in the supply chain through the call option contract?

Design/methodology/approach

This paper considers a two-level decentralized supply chain under random yield and random demand in which the manufacturer takes advantage of the downconversion approach with two scenarios, with and without option contract. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no article or study uses the downconversion approach in a supply chain regarding random yield and random demand. Furthermore, the paper considers pricing with option contract in the supply chain, which makes this article stands out significantly from other articles in the literature.

Findings

This study shows that the downconversion approach would reduce the risk caused by the random yield, which appears to be the appropriate method for the environmental goal of the supply chains. Moreover, adopting a call option contract can increase flexibility and mitigate risks, resulting in more expected members’ profits.

Research limitations/implications

To simplify the model, the authors assume one manufacturer and one retailer, so extending the model to consider multiple retailers instead of one retailer and inventory sharing between them would be interesting. Considering the option and exercise prices as decision variables would be important future research topics. Put option and bidirectional option contracts could be investigated in the future. Another extension is modeling asymmetry of information in supply chain.

Originality/value

This paper provides managerial insights on dealing with both demand and yield risks in a manufacturer–retailer supply chain. The manufacturer has a random yield production and produces two types of vertical products: low-end and high-end. To reduce waste caused by the random yield, the manufacturer uses a downconversion approach in which low-end products are made by converting the defective high-end products. The manufacturer purchased a shortage of high-end products from the secondary market (i.e. emergency sourcing). High-end products are sold through the retailer, and low-end products are sold directly by the manufacturer. The customer demand for high-end products in the end market is random and depends on the selling price, and the customer demand for the low-end products in the secondary market is independent and random. The retailer contracts the manufacturer with the call option to obtain high-end products to meet a random demand; in fact, by using the call option contract, the authors try to balance the risks between two members. Two scenarios of with and without call option contract are proposed. After the high-end product demand is observed, the retailer would exercise the option order quantity in the call option contract scenario and then place an instant order with the manufacturer if necessary. In each scenario, the manufacturer and the retailer make their decisions simultaneously (static game) to determine the retailer’s optimal ordering and pricing policies and the optimal production quantity of the manufacturer (Nash equilibrium) by maximizing their expected profits. Finally, the impact of the model parameters on the supply chain is expressed through numerical examples. The numerical analysis shows that the call option contract provides greater profit than the wholesale price contract.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 18 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 December 2023

Xiubin Gu, Yi Qu and Zhengkui Lin

The purpose of this study is to investigate the pricing strategies for knowledge payment products, taking into account the quality level of pirated knowledge products, in the…

74

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the pricing strategies for knowledge payment products, taking into account the quality level of pirated knowledge products, in the context of platform copyright supervision.

Design/methodology/approach

This study abstracts the knowledge payment transaction process and aims to maximize producer's revenue by constructing a pricing model for knowledge payment products. It discusses pricing strategies for knowledge payment products under two scenarios: traditional supervision and blockchain supervision. The analysis explores the impact of pirated knowledge products quality level and blockchain technology on pricing strategies and consumer surplus, while providing threshold conditions for effective strategies.

Findings

Deploying blockchain technology in platform operations can significantly reduce costs and increase efficiency. In both scenarios, knowledge producer needs to balance factors such as the quality of pirated knowledge products, the supervision level of platform, and consumer surplus to dynamically adjust pricing strategies in order to maximize his own revenue.

Originality/value

This study enriches the literature on the pricing models of knowledge payment products and has practical significance in guiding knowledge producer to develop effective pricing strategies under copyright supervision.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 December 2023

Haining Sun and Jianhu Cai

This paper aims to study the preferences of the supply chain (SC) members on various power structures under demand information asymmetry considering competing retailers.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to study the preferences of the supply chain (SC) members on various power structures under demand information asymmetry considering competing retailers.

Design/methodology/approach

A two-level SC with one manufacturer and two retailers is designed. The retailers are in Bertrand competition. The manufacturer who holds the confidential demand information chooses the appropriate information sharing (IS) format. Three IS formats are provided, i.e. no IS (the manufacturer never shares with the retailers), partial IS (the manufacturer shares with one retailer), full IS (the manufacturer shares with all retailers). In addition, the authors model two power structures based on the decision sequences in the SC, i.e. retailers or manufacturer-dominant SC. The authors characterize the equilibrium solutions and payoffs and then investigate the members’ preferences for IS formats.

Findings

It is shown that in retailers (manufacturer)-dominant SC, the retailers prefer full (no) IS, but the manufacturer prefers no (full) IS. Moreover, the authors analyze the members’ preferences on power structures under demand information asymmetry, which has a relationship with the degrees of demand uncertainty and competition intensity.

Originality/value

The analysis regarding the preferences of the SC members on power structure under demand information asymmetry provides valuable managerial insights to enhance cooperation and achieve a win-win result.

Details

Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0885-8624

Keywords

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