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In this chapter we review the recent and growing literature on medium-term growth patterns. This strand of research emerged from the realization that for most countries economic development is a highly unstable process; over a course of a few decades, a typical country enjoys periods of rapid growth as well episodes of stagnation and economic decline. This approach highlights the complex nature of growth and implies that studying transitions between periods of fast growth, stagnation, and collapse is essential for understanding the process of long run growth. We document recent efforts to characterize and study such growth transitions. We also update and extend some of our earlier research. Specifically, we use historical data from Maddison to confirm a link between political institutions and propensity to experience large swings in growth. We also study the role of institutions and macroeconomic policies, such as inflation, openness to trade, size of government, and real exchange rate overvaluation, in the context of growth transitions. We find surprisingly complex effects of some policies. For example, trade makes fast growth more likely but also increases the frequency of crises. The size of government reduces the likelihood of fast miracle-like growth while at the same time limiting the risk of stagnation. Moreover, these effects are nonlinear and dependent on the quality of institutions. We conclude by highlighting potentially promising areas for future research.

The purpose of this paper is to consider whether or not the introduction of inflation targeting (IT) impacts on the mean-reversion properties of inflation and output growth.

Focusing on eight Asian countries of which four are inflation-targeters, the authors employ a two-state Markov-switching model which characterizes the behavior of inflation and output growth as regime-dependent based on periods of stationarity or non-stationarity.

In contrast to a literature that offers mixed findings, the authors find the presence of stationary inflation and output growth in one regime for all IT countries, except for South Korea which is characterized by stationary output growth in both regimes. In the cases of South Korea and Thailand, IT reduces the probability of inflation remaining in a non-stationary regime. IT increases the probability of South Korea remaining in a regime of low persistence output growth. While IT is important in understanding behavior, so are other considerations such as exchange rate volatility, as well as the Asian and global financial crises.

In contrast to other unit root tests of inflation and output growth, a novelty of the approach is that the authors obtain new insights in terms of two concepts of stationarity that allow for inflation and output growth to switch between stationary and non-stationary regimes (partial stationarity), or between stationary regimes of differing degrees of persistence (varied stationarity).

This study aims to analyze the influence of political regime on economic growth.

The methodology was based on an inter-period comparison of the evolution of macroeconomic fundamentals in three different political regimes in Ecuador, a South American country.

The results showed that what determines the evolution of macroeconomic fundamentals is not the political regime that oversees it, but the size of a positive exogenous shock on the price of raw materials, which, by providing higher incomes, considerably increases the level of investment and net exports. However, the political regime does affect the distribution of income in sectors such as health and education.

As far as the authors know, this may be the first paper to explore the importance of a positive exogenous shock on a political regime for the case of primary-exporting Latin American economies, which are price takers subject to exogenous shocks.

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that isothermal intermetallic growth data for gold ball bonds can be non-parabolic with explanations of why deviation from parabolic kinetics may occur.

Intermetallic thickness measurements were made at the centre of cross-sectioned ball bonds that were isothermally annealed at 175°C. Intermetallic growth kinetics were modelled with a power law expression(x(t) − x₀)² = α₁t^α₂. The parameters of the power law model were obtained by transformation of the response and explanatory variables followed by data fitting using simple linear regression (SLR).

Ball bonds made with 4 N (99.99%Au) and 3 N (99.9%Au) gold wires exhibited two consecutive time regimes of intermetallic growth denoted Regime I and Regime II. Regime I was characterised by reactive diffusion between the gold wire and the aluminium alloy bond pad, during which Al was completely consumed in the formation of Au–Al intermetallics with non-parabolic kinetics. In Regime II, the absence of a free supply of Al to sustain intermetallic growth led to the conclusion that thickening of intermetallics was caused by phase transformation of Au₈Al₃ to Au₄Al. Ball bonds made with 2 N (99%Au) wire also exhibited non-parabolic kinetics in Regime I and negligible intermetallic thickening in Regime II.

The analysis of intermetallic growth is limited to total intermetallic growth at a single temperature (175°C).

The value of this study lies in showing that the assumption that only parabolic intermetallic growth is observed in isothermally aged gold ball bonds is incorrect. Furthermore there is no need to assume parabolic growth kinetics because with an appropriate data transformation, followed by fitting the data to a power law model using SLR and with the use of statistical diagnostics, both the suitability of the kinetic model and the nature of the growth kinetics (parabolic or non-parabolic) can be determined.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of Confucianism on growth under different political regimes.

The empirical specification adopts a two-regime panel threshold model proposed by Hansen (1999) to endogenously divide our country sample into two-regime-types – autocracy and democracy – according to a country's democratic stock or experiences.

The results show that the effect of Confucianism on growth exhibits an asymmetrical pattern depending on the status of a country's political democracy. Only when a moderate level of freedom has already been attained can Confucianism have a positive effect on growth. Conversely, for autocracies whose democratic institutions cannot pass a certain threshold, Confucianism has a very limited effect in terms of changing economic activity.

If the data with different sample years and/or different sample countries are used, the research results may lack generalizability. Further tests of the two-regime model with different data sizes are encouraged.

The authors use the World Values Survey (WVS) map to identify the countries under the influence of Confucianism. The authors emphasize that focusing only on political geography may overlook the information from the spread of cultural traits that accompanied the migration of people. So, based on the Confucian countries suggested by the WVS and the migration matrix of Putterman and Weil (2010), an immigration-based Confucianism variable was constructed. To accommodate different effects of Confucianism on growth in different phases of political development, the empirical specification adopts an asymmetrical pattern to investigate the impact of Confucianism on economic performance.

The purpose of the paper is to unveil the relationship between corruption and economic growth in Bangladesh.

The paper is designed to combine both theory and empirical work.

Bangladesh poses a positive relation between corruption and growth. This relationship has been significant since 1977 when Bangladesh embarked on a market economy and unleashed private investment, but failed to implement corresponding reforms in bureaucracy and major public utilities. As a result, consumers with rising income and producers with thriving business opportunities confronted public regulatory bodies for utilities and permits, and indulged in increasing corruption. Thus, both corruption and economic growth increased with the pace of privatisation and the market economy in Bangladesh. Hence, a positive association between corruption and growth, though spurious and co‐incidental, becomes apparent.

A bigger sample size for survey can be covered in the future.

While corruption does not foster growth, it greases the wheels of commerce in Bangladesh's regulation‐heavy systems that would otherwise impede businesses.

It can be argued that Bangladesh has the potentials to make growth performance even brighter if corruption can be further reduced through comprehensive liberalisation and bureaucratic reform.

Conventional wisdom suggests that corruption impedes economic growth. But this relationship is not that simple and straight forward in Bangladesh as it initially appears to be. Other institutional factors must be addressed before spurring growth in the country. This finding has implications to the development policymakers of Bangladesh or other emerging economies that experience both high growth and high corruption.

This study aims to test the dynamic impact of public debt and economic growth on newly democratized African countries (South Africa and Namibia) and compare the findings with those of newly democratized European countries (Germany and Ukraine) during the period 1990–2022.

The methodology involves three stages: identifying the appropriate transition variable, assessing the linearity between public debt and economic growth and selecting the order m of the transition function. The linearity test helps identify the nature of relationships between public debt and economic growth. The wild cluster bootstrap-Lagrange Multiplier test is used to evaluate the model’s appropriateness. All these tests would be executed using the Lagrange Multiplier type of test.

The results signify the policy switch, as the authors find that the relationship between public debt and economic growth is characterized by two transitions that symbolize that the current stage of the relationship is beyond the U-shape; however, an S-shape. The results show that for newly democratized African countries, the threshold during the first waves was 50% of GDP, represented by a U-shape, which then transits to an inverted U-shape with a threshold of 65% of GDP. Then, for the European case, it was 60% of GDP, which is now 72% of GDP.

The findings suggest that an escalating level of public debt has a negative impact on economic growth; therefore, it is important to implement fiscal discipline, prioritize government spending and reduce reliance on debt financing. This can be achieved by focusing on revenue generation, implementing effective taxation policies, reducing wasteful expenditures and promoting investment and productivity-enhancing measures.

I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to fit financial time series and at the same time provide powerful tools to test hypotheses formulated in the light of financial theories, and to generate positive economic value, as measured by risk-adjusted performances, in dynamic asset allocation applications. The chapter also reviews the role of Markov switching dynamics in modern asset pricing models in which the no-arbitrage principle is used to characterize the properties of the fundamental pricing measure in the presence of regimes.

This paper aims to investigate the pass-through (PT) effect in Turkey by using quarterly data for the period 1998: Q1-2019: Q2 to understand the dynamic potential effects of exchange rates on domestic prices.

The paper launches several nonlinear models in which the basic determinants of domestic prices in Turkey are determined through Markov regime-switching models (MSMs). Hence, this research follows the variables of the consumer price index (CPI), USD exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP; demand side of the economy), industrial production index (production side of the economy), economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk index for Turkey.

This work explores that the exchange rate and demand side of the economy (GDP) follow a positive nonlinear relationship with CPI at both regimes. The production side of the economy (IP) affects negatively the CPI during regime 0. Economic uncertainty influences the CPI positively at Regime 1, while geopolitical risk has a negative association with CPI at Regime 0. Eventually, the paper provides some policy proposals associated with the impacts of GDP, IP, economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk on CPI in Turkey.

One may claim that any PT model, which does not observe the possible structural or regime shifts in estimated parameters, might fail to estimate the coefficients unbiasedly and efficiently. Hence, this work differs from available relevant works in the literature since this paper considers linearity or nonlinearity important and reveals that the relevant PT model follows a nonlinear path rather than a linear path, this nonlinear path is converged strongly by MSMs and estimates the significant regime shifts in the constant term and, in parameters of independent variables of PT by MSMs.

India is one of the largest tea producers and consumers in the world. Around 70% of Indian tea is consumed by domestic consumers. The world famous Darjeeling and Assam tea are India’s pride. Once India was the top exporter of tea in the global market, currently, it is lagging behind China, Kenya, and Sri Lanka. In the global arena, Indian tea is facing stiff competition from China, Kenya, and Sri Lanka. With this backdrop, the present study aims to investigate twin objectives. First, the changing growth pattern of India’s tea export is investigated. Along with this, the impacts of trade openness on India’s tea export are also scrutinized. The entire study is conducted based on the secondary data, compiled from the various issues of Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy published by Reserve Bank of India. The data are compiled for the period 1987–1988 to 2018–2019. The investigation of the first objective is facilitated by the Poirer’s Spline function approach. On the contrary, for the exploration of the second objective, we have calculated the “trade openness index.” The study concludes that initially with trade openness Indian tea industry was benefitting but the growth rate of tea export gets reduced over time. It is surprising that in the post-EXIM-2002–2007 phase the rate of growth of India’s tea exports has declined sharply. The study ends with suitable policy prescriptions.