Search results

This paper aims to determine causal relationships between the level of productive credit, real deposits and money demand – all of them in real terms – and Gross National Product between 2006 and 2020.

The vector autoregressive technique (VAR) was used, where data from real macroeconomic aggregates published by the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) are correlated, such as productive credit, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, deposits and money demand.

The results indicate that there is no causal relationship, in the Granger sense, between GDP and financial activity, but there is between the growth rate of real money demand per capita and the growth rate of total real deposits per capita.

The study shows that bank credit mainly finances the operations of current assets and/or liabilities. In addition, economic agents use the banking system mainly to carry out transactional and precautionary activities.

Emerging economies have been highlighted as an important growth source of the global economy. However, this group of countries has not received enough academic attention yet. Therefore, this study aims to identify the impact of research and development (R&D) expenditure on economic growth in emerging economies.

The theoretical framework of the production function is applied to quantitatively analyse the impact of R&D expenditure on economic growth with a sample of 29 emerging economies in the period between 1996 and 2019.

The panel cointegration test confirms the existence of long-run cointegration relationships between economic growth and independent variables in these emerging economies. Besides, the estimated results show that the national R&D expenditure has positive effects on economic growth from both direct and interaction dimensions. This evidence has filled the empirical research gap in the R&D-growth nexus in the case of emerging economies. Finally, while gross capital and education have positive impacts on growth, corruption has a harmful effect on economic growth in these countries.

The results highlight that policymakers should enhance R&D expenditure and R&D activities as the key national development strategy. The investment in R&D not only helps emerging economies avoid the middle-income trap but also pushes these countries to successfully join the group of developed countries.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is among the first to examine the impact of R&D expenditure on economic growth with a homogeneous sample of emerging economies. The results are obviously helpful for policymakers to use R&D as the key development strategy for supporting economic growth in emerging economies in the future.

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.

This study empirically aims to examine the relationship between Bangladesh’s pharmaceutical industry growth and macroeconomic indicators such as the inflation rate, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, exchange rate and export growth through the long- and short-run relationship.

Using the time series data from 1986 to 2020, this study was developed based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework for co-integration. In contrast, the Toda–Yamamoto Granger Causality approach was also used for finding the direction of causality.

This study used the ARDL bounds test, which found strong co-integration among the variables, indicating a long-term relationship between them. In the long run, inflation, exchange rate and export growth significantly positively influence the pharmaceutical industry’s growth. Surprisingly, an FDI inflow has a negative impact. In the short term, the exchange rate and GDP growth were found to influence the growth of the pharmaceutical industry positively. Bidirectional causality between the growth of the pharmaceutical industry and the exchange rate was also identified using the Granger causality approach.

This paper emphasizes developing the policy as well as making concrete decisions regarding the development of the pharmaceutical industry and economic development in Bangladesh. The results also highlight the necessity for strategic macroeconomic management to support this sector’s long-term development and global competitiveness.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is conducted to identify the short- and long-run relationship of pharmaceutical industry development with the economic indicators and progress, where no study has been found on this dimension.

The purpose of this study is to analyse numerous aspects affecting residential property price in Malaysia against macroeconomics issues such as gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate, unemployment and wage.

The hedonic pricing model has been adopted as econometric model for this research to investigate the relationship between residential property price against macroeconomics indicator. The data for residential property price and macroeconomic variables were collected from 1991 to 2019. Multiple linear regression had been adopted to find the relationship between the dependent and independent variables.

The result shows that the GDP has a significant positive impact on residential property price, while exchange rate has no significant impact although it was positive. In addition, the unemployment rate has a significant impact on the residential property price and has a negative relationship. Similar to the wage that shows the negative relationship with residential property prices. Moreover, during the pandemic COVID-19 in Malaysia, this research shows a more transparent view of the relationship between residential property price and the macroeconomic issues of GDP, exchange rate, unemployment and wage.

The findings of this research found that macroeconomics issue cannot be eliminated due to Malaysia is a developing country, and there will always be an issue that will happen, but the issues can be reduced to maximise the advantages, e.g. during COVID-19, the solution to fight against COVID-19 were crucial and weaken the macroeconomics issues.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the conflict in Ukraine led to a sustained downturn in tourist arrivals (TA) in Russia. This paper aims to explore the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR) and other indices on TA over 1995–2023.

We employ a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to analyze the effects, capturing both the positive and negative shocks of these variables on TA.

Our research demonstrates that the NARDL model is more effective in elucidating the complex dynamics between macroeconomic factors and TA. Both an increase and a decrease in GPR lead to an increase in TA. A 1% negative shock in GPR leads to an increase in TA by 1.68%, whereas a 1% positive shock in GPR also leads to an increase in TA by 0.5%. In other words, despite the increase in GPR, the number of tourists coming to Russia increases by 0.5% for every 1% increase in that risk. Several explanations could account for this phenomenon: (1) risk-tolerant tourists: some tourists might be less sensitive to GPR or they might find the associated risks acceptable; (2) economic incentives: increased risk might lead to a depreciation in the local currency and lower costs, making travel to Russia more affordable for international tourists; (3) niche tourism: some tourists might be attracted to destinations experiencing turmoil, either for the thrill or to gain firsthand experience of the situation; (4) lagged effects: there might be a time lag between the increase in risk and the actual impact on tourist behavior, meaning the effects might be observed differently over a longer period.

Our study, employing the NARDL model and utilizing a dataset spanning from 1995 to 2023, investigates the impact of GPR, gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on TA in Russia. This research is unique because the dataset was compiled by the authors. The results show a complex relationship between GPR and TA, indicating that factors influencing TA can be multifaceted and not always intuitive.

This study aims to examine the relationship between the environment and tourism flows, as well as the economic variables of the 32 states of Mexico for the period 1999–2019 based on data availability. The related literature studying tourism and environmental impacts is scarce at a national level, with most of them being local case studies. Some international studies find that if the relationship exists, it is weak or nonexistent, using CO₂ as a proxy in most cases.

The present study uses panel data and cointegration panel methodologies, while also using geographic information systems to observe the distribution of variables at a state level between tourism and environmental variables.

The findings of the study are as follows: state gross domestic product, the inertia of environmental variables (i.e. volume of water treatment and solid waste), occupied rooms (proxy variable for tourism activity) and average temperature have an impact on the contemporary evolution of environmental variables; national and international tourist variables have no impact on the environment; the panels are integrated in such a way that there is a long-term equilibrium between states and some environmental care variables; and no conclusive evidence is found regarding the impact of tourism activity on the considered environmental variables.

The main limitations and areas of opportunity of the work refer to the amount of data available over time and the precision of the measurement of the variables. The availability, temporality and frequency of the data are also limitations of the research. An example of this is the nonexistence of CO₂ emissions at the state level. Additionally, studying other countries and regions for which there are limitations of data and applied studies is also a challenge.

The results are important for economies (in growth) and societies whose economic growth depends on tourism flows and have done little to reverse the damage that tourism has on the environment.

The models can contribute to study the relation between tourism and environmental variables and could be extended to regions, states and provinces for decision-making on actions to be taken for the present and future.

The originality of the research is innovative for the region: Mexico, Central and Latin America. There are no works that have studied these problems with this methodology and these variables. In terms of originality, the classic models of panel data and cointegration of panel data are useful and easily replicable for others to use for different countries. The results are relevant because there is apparently no relationship between tourism and some environmental variables in the short run, but there exists a weak and strong long-run relation between some of them.

本研究采用面板数据和协整面板模型方法, 同时利用地理信息系统(gis)观察州一级层面旅游和环境方面的变量分布。

本研究根据数据可用性, 研究了墨西哥32个州1999–2019年期间环境与旅游流量及经济变量之间的关系。在国家层面上研究旅游与环境影响的相关文献很少, 而且大多是地方的个案研究。一些国际研究发现, 即使有这种关系, 大多数案例中使用二氧化碳作为替代变量, 这种关系也是很弱或不存在。

i)国家国内生产总值, 环境变量的惯性(即水处理量和固体废物量), 占用的房间(旅游活动的代理变量)和平均温度对环境变量的现有演化有影响。ii)国内和国际旅游变量对环境没有影响。iii)面板数据以这样一种方式集成, 即国家和一些环境变量之间存在一种长期平衡。iv)关于旅游活动对所考虑的环境变量的影响没有确凿的证据。

这项工作的主要局限和机会领域是指随着时间的推移可获得的数据量和变量测量的精度。数据的可用性、时效性和频率也是本研究的局限性。这方面的一个例子是在州一级不存在二氧化碳排放。此外, 由于数据和应用研究的局限, 研究其他国家和地区也是一个挑战。

研究结果对经济增长依赖旅游业流量的经济体和社会具有重要意义, 这些经济体和社会对扭转旅游业对环境的破坏方面做得还不够。

这些模型有助于研究旅游业与环境变量之间的关系, 并可推广到地区、州和省, 以制定当前和未来的行动决策。

这项研究的原创性对该地区(墨西哥、中美洲和拉丁美洲)来说是具有创新性的。没有人用这种方法和这些变量研究过这些问题。就原创性而言, 面板数据和面板数据协整的经典模型是有用的且易于复制, 可供其他国家使用。 研究结果具有一定的相关性, 因为旅游业与部分环境变量在短期内不存在明显的相关性, 但在它们中的一些变量在长期内存在着或强或弱的相关性。

Se examina la relación entre medio ambiente y flujos turísticos, así como variables económicas de los 32 estados de México para el período 1999-2019 basado en la disponibilidad de datos. La literatura relacionada que estudia el turismo y los impactos ambientales es escasa a nivel nacional, siendo la mayoría de ellos estudios de casos locales. Estudios internacionales encuentran que, si la relación existe, es débil o inexistente, utilizando el CO2 como un indicador en la mayoría de los casos.

Se utilizaron metodologías de datos de panel y cointegración de panel, además sistemas de información geográfica para observar la distribución de variables a nivel estatal.

i) El Producto Interno Bruto Estatal, la inercia de las variables ambientales (es decir, volumen de tratamiento de agua y residuos sólidos), habitaciones ocupadas (proxy de la actividad turística) y temperatura promedio tienen un impacto en la evolución contemporánea de las variables ambientales, ii) las variables turísticas nacionales e internacionales no tienen un impacto en el medio ambiente, iii) los paneles están integrados de tal manera que existe un equilibrio a largo plazo entre turismo, crecimiento económico y algunas variables ambientales, y iv) no se encuentra evidencia concluyente con respecto al impacto de la actividad turística en las variables ambientales consideradas.

Las principales limitaciones y áreas de oportunidad del trabajo se refieren a la cantidad de datos disponibles en el tiempo y a la precisión de la medición de las variables. La disponibilidad, temporalidad y frecuencia de los datos también son limitaciones de la investigación. Un ejemplo de ello es la inexistencia de emisiones de CO2 a nivel estatal. Además, el estudio de otros países y regiones para los que existen limitaciones de datos y estudios aplicados también es un reto.

Los resultados son importantes para las economías (en crecimiento) y las sociedades cuyo crecimiento económico depende de los flujos turísticos y que han hecho poco por invertir los daños que el turismo produce en el medio ambiente.

Los modelos pueden contribuir a estudiar la relación entre el turismo y las variables medioambientales y podrían extenderse a regiones, estados y provincias para la toma de decisiones sobre las acciones a emprender para el presente y el futuro.

El artículo proporciona un análisis innovador y exploratorio hacia una perspectiva futura que agrega valor al turismo y la planificación para la sostenibilidad. La relación entre turismo y medio ambiente se ha estudiado durante varios años. La UNTWO ha abordado las consecuencias del turismo en el medio ambiente, particularmente, más basura, mayor consumo de agua, emisiones de CO2 y otros aspectos. Pocos trabajos estudian la relación entre estas variables.

La originalidad de la investigación es innovadora para la región: México, América Central y América Latina. No existen trabajos que hayan estudiado estos problemas con esta metodología y estas variables.

En términos de originalidad, los modelos clásicos de datos de panel y cointegración de datos de panel son útiles y fácilmente replicables para que otros los utilicen en diferentes países.

Los resultados son relevantes porque aparentemente no hay una relación entre el turismo y algunas variables ambientales a corto plazo, existe una relación débil y fuerte a largo plazo entre algunas de ellas.

This study investigates the impact of US dollar volatility and oil rents on the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, with an emphasis on understanding how these factors influence SME financing constraints in economies with fixed currency regimes.

Employing a random effects panel regression analysis, this research considers US dollar volatility and oil rents as independent variables, with SME performance, measured through the financing gap, as the dependent variable. Controls such as trade balance, inflation deltas and gross domestic product (GDP) growth are included to isolate their effects on SME financing constraints.

The study reveals a significant positive relationship between dollar volatility and the financing gap, suggesting that increased volatility can exacerbate SME financing constraints. Conversely, oil rents did not show a significant direct influence on SME performance. The trade balance and inflation deltas were found to have significant effects, highlighting the multifaceted nature of economic variables affecting SMEs.

The study acknowledges potential biases due to omitted variables and the limitations inherent in the use of secondary data.

Findings offer pertinent guidance for SMEs and policymakers in the GCC region seeking to develop strategies that mitigate the impact of currency volatility and support SME financing.

The research provides new insights into the dynamics of SME performance within fixed currency regimes, which significantly contributes to the limited literature in this area. The paper further underscores the complex connections between global economic factors and SME financial health.