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1 – 10 of 381Li Xuemei, Yun Cao, Junjie Wang, Yaoguo Dang and Yin Kedong
Research on grey systems is becoming more sophisticated, and grey relational and prediction analyses are receiving close review worldwide. Particularly, the application of grey…
Abstract
Purpose
Research on grey systems is becoming more sophisticated, and grey relational and prediction analyses are receiving close review worldwide. Particularly, the application of grey systems in marine economics is gaining importance. The purpose of this paper is to summarize and review literature on grey models, providing new directions in their application in the marine economy.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper organized seminal studies on grey systems published by Chinese core journal database – CNKI, Web of Science and Elsevier from 1982 to 2018. After searching the aforementioned database for the said duration, the authors used the CiteSpace visualization tools to analyze them.
Findings
The authors sorted the studies according to their countries/regions, institutions, keywords and categories using the CiteSpace tool; analyzed current research characteristics on grey models; and discussed their possible applications in marine businesses, economy, scientific research and education, marine environment and disasters. Finally, the authors pointed out the development trend of grey models.
Originality/value
Although researches are combining grey theory with fractals, neural networks, fuzzy theory and other methods, the applications, in terms of scope, have still not met the demand. With the increasingly in-depth research in marine economics and management, international marine economic research has entered a new period of development. Grey theory will certainly attract scholars’ attention, and its role in marine economy and management will gain considerable significance.
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Zhaosu Meng, Xiaotong Liu, Kedong Yin, Xuemei Li and Xinchang Guo
The purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of an improved dummy variables control grey model (DVCGM) considering the hysteresis effect of government policies in…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of an improved dummy variables control grey model (DVCGM) considering the hysteresis effect of government policies in China's energy intensity (EI) forecasting.
Design/methodology/approach
Energy consumption is considered as an important driver of economic development. China has introduced policies those aim at the optimization of energy structure and EI. In this study, EI is forecasted by an improved DVCGM, considering the hysteresis effect of energy-saving policies of the government. A nonlinear optimization method based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is constructed to calculate the hysteresis parameter. A one-step rolling mechanism is applied to provide input data of the prediction model. Grey model (GM) (1, N), DVCGM (1, N) and ARIMA model are applied to test the accuracy of the improved DVCGM (1, N) model prediction.
Findings
The results show that the improved DVCGM provides reliable results and works well in simulation and predictions using multivariable data in small sample size and time-lag virtual variable. Accordingly, the improved DVCGM notes the hysteresis effect of government policies and significantly improves the prediction accuracy of China's EI than the other three models.
Originality/value
This study estimates the EI considering the hysteresis effect of energy-saving policies in China by using an improved DVCGM. The main contribution of this paper is to propose a model to estimate EI, considering the hysteresis effect of energy-saving policies and improve forecasting accuracy.
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This study aims to use gray models to predict abnormal stock returns.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to use gray models to predict abnormal stock returns.
Design/methodology/approach
Data are collected from listed companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2005-2015. The analyses portray three models, namely, the gray model, the nonlinear gray Bernoulli model and the Nash nonlinear gray Bernoulli model.
Findings
Results show that the Nash nonlinear gray Bernoulli model can predict abnormal stock returns that are defined by conditions other than gray models which predict increases, and then after checking regression models, the Bernoulli regression model is defined, which gives higher accuracy and fewer errors than the other two models.
Originality/value
The stock market is one of the most important markets, which is influenced by several factors. Thus, accurate and reliable techniques are necessary to help investors and consumers find detailed and exact ways to predict the stock market.
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D.M.K.N. Seneviratna and R.M. Kapila Tharanga Rathnayaka
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) is one of the major pandemic diseases caused by a newly discovered virus that has been directly affecting the human respiratory system. Because of the…
Abstract
Purpose
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) is one of the major pandemic diseases caused by a newly discovered virus that has been directly affecting the human respiratory system. Because of the gradually increasing magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic across the world, it has been sparking emergencies and critical issues in the healthcare systems around the world. However, predicting the exact amount of daily reported new COVID cases is the most serious issue faced by governments around the world today. So, the purpose of this current study is to propose a novel hybrid grey exponential smoothing model (HGESM) to predicting transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak properly.
Design/methodology/approach
As a result of the complications relates to the traditional time series approaches, the proposed HGESM model is well defined to handle exponential data patterns in multidisciplinary systems. The proposed methodology consists of two parts as double exponential smoothing and grey exponential smoothing modeling approach respectively. The empirical analysis of this study was carried out on the basis of the 3rd outbreak of Covid-19 cases in Sri Lanka, from 1st March 2021 to 15th June 2021. Out of the total 90 daily observations, the first 85% of daily confirmed cases were used during the training, and the remaining 15% of the sample.
Findings
The new proposed HGESM is highly accurate (less than 10%) with the lowest root mean square error values in one head forecasting. Moreover, mean absolute deviation accuracy testing results confirmed that the new proposed model has given more significant results than other time-series predictions with the limited samples.
Originality/value
The findings suggested that the new proposed HGESM is more suitable and effective for forecasting time series with the exponential trend in a short-term manner.
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Yingjie Yang, Sifeng Liu and Naiming Xie
The purpose of this paper is to propose a framework for data analytics where everything is grey in nature and the associated uncertainty is considered as an essential part in data…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to propose a framework for data analytics where everything is grey in nature and the associated uncertainty is considered as an essential part in data collection, profiling, imputation, analysis and decision making.
Design/methodology/approach
A comparative study is conducted between the available uncertainty models and the feasibility of grey systems is highlighted. Furthermore, a general framework for the integration of grey systems and grey sets into data analytics is proposed.
Findings
Grey systems and grey sets are useful not only for small data, but also big data as well. It is complementary to other models and can play a significant role in data analytics.
Research limitations/implications
The proposed framework brings a radical change in data analytics. It may bring a fundamental change in our way to deal with uncertainties.
Practical implications
The proposed model has the potential to avoid the mistake from a misleading data imputation.
Social implications
The proposed model takes the philosophy of grey systems in recognising the limitation of our knowledge which has significant implications in our way to deal with our social life and relations.
Originality/value
This is the first time that the whole data analytics is considered from the point of view of grey systems.
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Ali M. Abdulshahed, Andrew P. Longstaff and Simon Fletcher
The purpose of this paper is to produce an intelligent technique for modelling machine tool errors caused by the thermal distortion of Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machine…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to produce an intelligent technique for modelling machine tool errors caused by the thermal distortion of Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machine tools. A new metaheuristic method, the cuckoo search (CS) algorithm, based on the life of a bird family is proposed to optimize the GMC(1, N) coefficients. It is then used to predict thermal error on a small vertical milling centre based on selected sensors.
Design/methodology/approach
A Grey model with convolution integral GMC(1, N) is used to design a thermal prediction model. To enhance the accuracy of the proposed model, the generation coefficients of GMC(1, N) are optimized using a new metaheuristic method, called the CS algorithm.
Findings
The results demonstrate good agreement between the experimental and predicted thermal error. It can therefore be concluded that it is possible to optimize a Grey model using the CS algorithm, which can be used to predict the thermal error of a CNC machine tool.
Originality/value
An attempt has been made for the first time to apply CS algorithm for calibrating the GMC(1, N) model. The proposed CS-based Grey model has been validated and compared with particle swarm optimization (PSO) based Grey model. Simulations and comparison show that the CS algorithm outperforms PSO and can act as an alternative optmization algorithm for Grey models that can be used for thermal error compensation.
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Mei-Ling Cheng, Ching-Wu Chu and Hsiu-Li Hsu
This paper aims to compare different univariate forecasting methods to provide a more accurate short-term forecasting model on the crude oil price for rendering a reference to…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to compare different univariate forecasting methods to provide a more accurate short-term forecasting model on the crude oil price for rendering a reference to manages.
Design/methodology/approach
Six different univariate methods, namely the classical decomposition model, the trigonometric regression model, the regression model with seasonal dummy variables, the grey forecast, the hybrid grey model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), have been used.
Findings
The authors found that the grey forecast is a reliable forecasting method for crude oil prices.
Originality/value
The contribution of this research study is using a small size of data and comparing the forecasting results of the six univariate methods. Three commonly used evaluation criteria, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE), were adopted to evaluate the model performance. The outcome of this work can help predict the crude oil price.
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The purpose of this paper is to explore the internal interaction mechanism of marine scientific research and education, industrial structure upgrading and marine economic growth…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore the internal interaction mechanism of marine scientific research and education, industrial structure upgrading and marine economic growth from a systematic perspective, based on which this work forecasts their future development trends.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, a multivariate grey model is applied to the prediction of marine scientific research and education, industrial structure upgrading and marine economic growth. Considering the impact of the COVID-19 on marine development, this paper introduces the weakening buffer operator into MGM(1,m) and constructs the AWBO-MGM(1,m) model. To verify the validity and accuracy of the new model, this paper uses AWBO-MGM(1,m), MGM(1,m), GM(1,N), GM(1,1), back propagation neural network and linear regression models for simulation and prediction based on the data from 2010 to 2021, respectively.
Findings
From the theoretical perspective, the development of marine scientific research and education can accelerate industrial upgrading and promote marine economic growth by providing high-quality talents, promoting marine science and technology progress and reducing transaction costs; while the upgrading of marine industrial structure and marine economic growth can promote the development of marine scientific research and education by guiding social capital, enhancing talent demand and stimulating market vitality. From the empirical analysis, the AWBO-MGM(1,m) model can effectively deal with epidemic shocks and has higher fitting and prediction accuracy than the other five comparative models.
Practical implications
The government should pay attention to the construction of marine scientific research and education, so as to provide high-quality talents and advanced scientific research results for the high-quality development of marine economy. On the basis of using science and technology to firmly build the primary and secondary marine industries, the government should actively guide the labor, capital and other factors of production to the tertiary industry, thereby promoting the optimization and upgrading of marine industrial structure.
Originality/value
On the one hand, the interplay mechanism of marine scientific research and education, industrial structure upgrading and marine economic growth is analyzed from a systematic perspective; on the other hand, the enhanced AWBO-MGM(1,m) possesses higher forecasting performance and is applicable to the systemic multivariate forecasting problem in the presence of outstanding external shocks.
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Fulin Shang, Xiyue Teng and Minyoung Park
The purpose of this study is to quantify port efficiency assessment indicators to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese One Belt One Road (OBOR) ports.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to quantify port efficiency assessment indicators to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese One Belt One Road (OBOR) ports.
Design/methodology/approach
This study utilized a grey prediction model GM(1,1) to forecast five relevant indicators for each of the 17 OBOR ports both with and without COVID-19 background conditions. Additionally, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) efficiency assessment approach was used to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on port efficiency.
Findings
The results indicate that cargo and container throughput growth rates during the COVID-19 pandemic are reduced by 1.7 and 2.1%, respectively. There was also a noticeable reduction in technological efficiency (TE) as well as pure technological efficiency (PTE), while scale efficiency (SE) remained largely unaffected. Furthermore, the dynamic efficiency MI was mainly negatively impacted by changes in overall efficiency change (EFFCH), where pure efficiency change (PECH) less than one contributed significantly towards overall regression of port efficiencies during this period.
Originality/value
This paper is unique in its use of a combination of the grey prediction model and DEA efficiency assessment to quantify changes in important indicators during pandemic periods. This approach not only provides a quantitative understanding of the impact on port-level efficiency through numerical quantification but also offers readers an intuitive understanding.
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Iman Ghalehkhondabi, Ehsan Ardjmand, William A. Young and Gary R. Weckman
The purpose of this paper is to review the current literature in the field of tourism demand forecasting.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to review the current literature in the field of tourism demand forecasting.
Design/methodology/approach
Published papers in the high quality journals are studied and categorized based their used forecasting method.
Findings
There is no forecasting method which can develop the best forecasts for all of the problems. Combined forecasting methods are providing better forecasts in comparison to the traditional forecasting methods.
Originality/value
This paper reviews the available literature from 2007 to 2017. There is not such a review available in the literature.
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