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This study aims to estimate the determinants of international tourist flows between destinations by using the panel gravity model.

The multi-dimensional panel gravity model was used to analyse tourism originating from 30 different countries to the 14 most-visited countries in the world between 2008 and 2016. Income (i.e. per capita gross domestic product for both the origin and destination countries), distance between countries, various economic indicators and six dummy variables were added to the gravity model as control variables.

The results indicated that tourist arrivals depended mainly on economic factors, i.e. income and trade variables were significant determinants of tourist arrivals. The results also suggested that estimated international tourist flows are a negative function of distance, as is postulated in economic theory.

In recent years, gravity models have been used frequently to analyse international tourism demand and have demonstrated their ability to evaluate the effects of various determinants of international tourism for many countries. The literature includes studies that used a two-dimensional panel gravity model to analyse the determinants of tourism demand to a single country from many different countries. This study differs in terms of specificity; in that, it relied on a three-dimensional panel gravity model that allowed for modelling of multiple destination countries. As a result, more comprehensive and general results relative to the determinants of tourism demand were obtained. In addition, the application of a non-nested three-dimensional panel data model, which has limited use, contributes a new perspective to the econometric literature.

本研究旨在通过采用面板引力模型来估计目的地之间国际旅游流量的决定因素。

多维面板引力模型用于分析2008年至2016年间来自30个不同国家的游客赴世界上前14位旅游目的地国家的旅游情况。收入（即客源国和目的地国家的人均国内生产总值）, 国家之间的距离, 各种经济指标和六个虚拟变量作为控制变量加入到引力模型中。

结果表明, 游客到访主要取决于经济因素, 即收入和贸易变量是游客到访的重要决定因素。结果还表明, 估计的国际旅游流量是距离的负函数。

近年来, 引力模型经常被用来分析国际旅游需求, 并证明了它们能够评估许多国家的各种国际旅游决定因素的影响。文献包括使用二维面板引力模型来分析来自许多不同国家的单个国家的旅游需求的决定因素的研究。该研究的不同之处在于, 它依赖于非嵌套集合模型三维面板引力模型, 允许对多个目的地国家进行建模。因此, 此研究获得了与旅游需求决定因素相关的更全面和广泛的结果。此外, 使用不常运用的非嵌套三维面板数据模型的应用为计量经济学文献提供了新的视角。

国际旅游需求, 重力模型, 多维面板数据模型

Este estudio tiene como objetivo estimar los determinantes de los flujos turísticos internacionales entre destinos mediante el uso del modelo de panel de gravedad.

El modelo de gravedad de panel multidimensional se utilizó para analizar el turismo que se originó en 30 países diferentes a los 14 países más visitados del mundo entre 2008 y 2016.

Los resultados indicaron que las llegadas de turistas dependían principalmente de factores económicos, es decir, las variables de ingresos y comercio fueron determinantes significativos de las llegadas de turistas. Los resultados también sugirieron que los flujos turísticos internacionales estimados son una función negativa de la distancia.

En los últimos años, los modelos de gravedad se han utilizado con frecuencia para analizar la demanda turística internacional y han demostrado su capacidad para evaluar los efectos de varios determinantes del turismo internacional para muchos países. La literatura incluye estudios que utilizaron un modelo de gravedad de panel bidimensional para analizar los determinantes de la demanda turística a un solo país desde muchos países diferentes. Este estudio difiere en términos de especificidad en que se basó en un modelo tridimensional de panel de gravedad que permitió el modelado de múltiples países de destino.

Demanda turística internacional, Modelo de gravedad, Modelo de datos de panel multidimensional

The purpose of this paper is to present a full fourth‐order model of the gravity gradient torque of spacecraft around asteroids by taking into consideration of the inertia integrals of the spacecraft up to the fourth order, which is an improvement of the previous fourth‐order model of the gravity gradient torque.

The fourth‐order gravitational potential of the spacecraft is derived based on Taylor expansion. Then the expression of the gravity gradient torque in terms of gravitational potential derivatives is derived. By using the formulation of the gravitational potential, explicit formulations of the full fourth‐order gravity gradient torque are obtained. Then a numerical simulation is carried out to verify the model.

It is found that the model is more sound and precise than the previous fourth‐order model due to the consideration of higher‐order inertia integrals of the spacecraft. Numerical simulation results show that the motion of the previous fourth‐order model is quite different from the exact motion, while the full fourth‐order model fits the exact motion very well. The full fourth‐order model is precise enough for high‐precision attitude dynamics and control around asteroids.

This high‐precision model is of importance for the future asteroids missions for scientific explorations and near‐Earth objects (NEOs) mitigation.

In comparison with previous models, a gravity gradient torque model around asteroids that is more sound and precise is established. This model is valuable for high‐precision attitude dynamics and control around asteroids.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of gravity variables and trade costs on China's export margins.

Following the structural gravity model with firm heterogeneity, the paper measures the extensive margins and intensive margins of China's export across 46 export destinations and estimates the linkage between export margins and its potential determinants.

The empirical results confirm the gravity relationship hold for bilateral trade and export margins. Furthermore, trade costs have different influence on extensive margins and intensive margins as the structural gravity model with firm heterogeneity expected. The paper also shows the rapid growth of China's export is mainly along the intensive margins which are increasing in fixed cost for export.

The paper contributes to the measurements of China's export margins and the empirical research on effects of trade liberalization on China's foreign trade.

This paper aims to use the approach based on the application of the law of gravity for the study of the flows of export and the effects of the RTAs.

In this paper, the authors evaluate the effects of RTAs on exports between members and non-members taking into account the Vinerian specification. The authors also try to estimate the impact of the recent economic crisis on the flows of export and the success of the RTAs. The authors use a model of static and dynamic gravity for 40 countries and six RTAs during the period 1980-2011.

Definitely the proliferation of RTAs will continue to be one of the driving forces that will constitute the political system and the global economy in the following years. It indicates a process that implies the merger of economies separated in bigger regions of free trade. Regional integration is seen as beneficial in many senses and is the major economic objectives in addition to presenting a stabilizing factor in international relations.

The gravity model is estimated using the last techniques of panel data which takes into account the endogeneity of the effects of integration and the existence of dynamic effect.

Economists have had problems interpreting the gravity model, particularly as applied to migration behaviour. Its physical analogy is unappealing and theories of economic behaviour do not generally give rise to gravity laws. Some years ago Niedercorn and Bechdolt (1969) published a paper in which they provide a derivation of the gravity model using utility theory. Their approach is, however, much more applicable to other flows of human interaction across space, such as travel or communication flows, than it is to migration flows. The major purpose of this paper is to indicate a set of assumptions which might underlie a gravity model of migration and to show that these assumptions are quite severe. One important implication is that we should fully expect any real world migration pattern to deviate from the predictions of a gravity model. Nevertheless, the gravity specification may be a useful starting point in the analysis of migration behaviour, as it imposes restrictions on the formulation of the estimating equations. Thus we may fruitfully study how and why the real world migration patterns diverge from gravity flows.

It has been demonstrated by Rugman and his colleagues that a majority of the activities undertaken by the world's largest 500 MNEs, such as sales, assets, and employment, are regional in nature. This evidence has also been extended to trade and FDI patterns of OECD countries. Given the costs associated with doing business in foreign and distant markets, one may expect there to be a regional concentration in such activities. That is, the concentration of MNE activities in regional markets may be consistent with a transactions cost model. The objective of the analysis undertaken in this paper is to measure the extent to which the concentrations of OECD MNE activities can be explained by a formal transactions costs model (the gravity model in this case). These results are important for two main reasons. To the extent the concentrations are consistent with a formal model, then, first, this would provide further theoretical arguments in support of Rugman's hypotheses, and second, this would indicate that MNE managers have it right – that is, the activities of the corporations they manage are as global as they should be. On the other hand, if the activities are not fully explainable by atransactions cost model, the implications would be quite different. Theresults indicate that although some activities can be explained by a gravity model, many dimensions of OECD MNE activities, especially within the EU, are not explainable using a gravity model. That is, many of the activities of EU MNEs are more regionally concentrated than would be predicted by transactions costs.

The Russian export flow is highly concentrated on few trading partners that results in its high vulnerability to external shock. Furthermore, the Russian–Ukraine conflict and corresponding western sanctions has enhanced the need of export markets diversification for Russia. Therefore, this study is a baseline attempt to explore determinants of export flow along with identifying potential export markets. This objective is realized by employing an augmented version of gravity model on export flow of Russian Federation to 108 trading partners from 2000 to 2020.

The augmented gravity model of export flow is estimated by using employing contemporary panel econometrics such as panel generalized ordinary least square estimation technique with cross-sectional weight along with heteroskedasticity consistent white coefficients is employed to explore impact of selected macroeconomic and policy variables. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis is performed by using panel random effect along with the Driscoll–Kraay standard errors with pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and random effect generalized least square (GLS) estimator techniques. The estimated result of panel GLS technique is subjected to in-sampled forecasting technique to explore potential export markets.

The findings show that an increase in the income of trading partners and enhancement of domestic production capacity has significant positive impact on Russian export flow, whereas geographic distance has a significant negative impact. Income of trading partners emerged as major determinant of export flow with high explanatory power. Among augmented variables, the real exchange rate reveals a significant positive impact of lower intensity, whereas binary variables for the common border, common history and preferential/free trade agreement show a significant positive impact. The finding of export potential reveals a high concentration of export with existence of large potential for exports across the globe. For instance, many developing countries in Asia, Africa and America reveal high potential for Russian exports.

The findings urge Russian Federation to diversify its export markets by targeting potential export markets. Many emerging developing countries are witnessing a high potential for Russian exports, therefore attempts should be taken to diversify toward them. The expansion of existing transportation facilities along with development of cargo trade can be important policy instrument to realize objective of export diversification.

This study is the first comprehensive analysis that employs augmented gravity model to explore potential export markets for Russian Federation by using panel data of 108 global trading partners from 2000 to 2020. This finding of this study provides a framework of export diversification toward potential markets across the globe.

Culture and institutions are among the essential sources of comparative advantage in international trade and may influence a country's FDI influx. This paper aims to analyze the impact of cultural distance (CD) and institutional distance (ID) on the efficiency of China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) for the panel of 43 countries during 2003–2016.

The stochastic frontier approach (SFA) has been incorporated into the standard gravity model of gravity Kalirajan, 1999; Ravishankar and Stack, 2014). SFA has traditionally been implemented to evaluate the production frontier as the highest yield that could possibly be generated from specified input levels. The production process is viewed to be fully efficient if the real output is performed at frontier level. Otherwise, the production process is assumed technically inefficient, which implies potential scope for enhanced output. This error term is split into two parts, a non-negative term and more standard asymmetrical term. The former identifies inefficiencies in production, while the latter retrieves random disorders

The outcomes assert a U-shaped relationship between CD and the efficiency of China's OFDI. Put differently, when the CD is minimal, the “liability of foreignness” (LOF) effect plays a dominant role; and CD tends to reduce the efficiency of China's OFDI. On the flip side, when the culture distance is greater than a certain threshold level, the “advantages of foreignness” (AOF) effect plays a predominant role, and CD improves the efficiency of China's OFDI. Institutional distance results in the “LOF” effect significantly reduce the efficiency of China's OFDI.

Notwithstanding these contributions, our study has some limitations which offer directions for future research. The major limitation of this research work is the availability of comprehensive data for a well extended time, in particular for the variable of CD. Further, a firm-level study can shed light on the motivations and performance of China OFDI. Finally, given that our analysis focuses on emerging market multinational enterprises (EMNEs) from China, the findings might not be explicitly generalizable to MNEs from other developing countries. Future studies should concentrate on the comparative study of China's OFDI with other developing countries, to deepen our understanding of the effects of ID and CD on the efficiency of OFDI.

(1) The work is novel in nature as the authors attempt to explore the effect of ID and CD on efficiency of Chinese FDI. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no research is conducted in this direction in terms of Chinese FDI. (2) Further, the prior studies employed standard gravity model, which may not correctly evaluate the trade potential viewed as the highest potential value. To overcome the shortcomings of the standard gravity model in estimation of the trade performance and efficiency, the SFA has been incorporated into the standard gravity model of gravity.

Since its development by Tinbergen (1962), the gravity model of international trade has widely been applied to analyse the effect of various factors on trade relationships between countries. Past studies on trade gravity vary not only in the mix of model variables but also in how they have come into the analysis. This study reviews existing literature on bilateral trade with an aim to identify influential predictors such as changes of trade policy and national development strategy and highlight important yet understudied factors such as transport and logistics infrastructure, and sustainable development. To demonstrate the needs to examine these critical factors across industry sectors, the study presents the case of textiles and clothing (T&C) production and trade between China and its trading partners as an illustration. Through the literature review, it shows how the gravity model can be applied to address current issues in international trade arena such as the potential trade war between the US and China, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and other important factors shaping global T&C trade. This study offers future research directions for analysis of global trade in the T&C industry and contributes to the wider literature of international business and trade.

The purpose of the chapter is to test the hypothesis that food safety (chemical) standards act as barriers to international seafood imports. We use zero-accounting gravity models to test the hypothesis that food safety (chemical) standards act as barriers to international seafood imports. The chemical standards on which we focus include chloramphenicol required performance limit, oxytetracycline maximum residue limit, fluoro-quinolones maximum residue limit, and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) pesticide residue limit. The study focuses on the three most important seafood markets: the European Union’s 15 members, Japan, and North America.Our empirical results confirm the hypothesis and are robust to the OLS as well as alternative zero-accounting gravity models such as the Heckman estimation and the Poisson family regressions. For the choice of the best model specification to account for zero trade and heteroskedastic issues, it is inconclusive to base on formal statistical tests; however, the Heckman sample selection and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models provide the most reliable parameter estimates based on the statistical tests, magnitude of coefficients, economic implications, and the literature findings. Our findings suggest that continually tightening of seafood safety standards has had a negative impact on exporting countries. Increasing the stringency of regulations by reducing analytical limits or maximum residue limits in seafood in developed countries has negative impacts on their bilateral seafood imports. The chapter furthers the literature on food safety standards on international trade. We show competing gravity model specifications and provide additional evidence that no one gravity model is superior.