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1 – 10 of 164Gour Gobinda Goswami, Md. Rubaiyath Sarwar and Md. Mahbubur Rahman
The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism flows of eight Asia-Pacific Countries: Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, the…
Abstract
Purpose
The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism flows of eight Asia-Pacific Countries: Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand.
Design/methodology/approach
Using monthly data from 2019M1 to 2021M10 and 48 origin and eight destination countries in a panel Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation technique and gravity equation framework, this paper finds that after controlling for gravity determinants, COVID-19 periods have a 0.689% lower tourism inflow than in non-COVID-19 periods. The total observations in this paper are 12,138.
Findings
A 1% increase in COVID-19 transmission in the origin country leads to a 0.037% decline in tourism flow in the destination country, while the reduction is just 0.011% from the destination. On the mortality side, the corresponding decline in tourism flows from origin countries is 0.030%, whereas it is 0.038% from destination countries. A 1% increase in vaccine intensity in the destination country leads to a 0.10% improvement in tourism flows, whereas vaccinations at the source have no statistically significant effect. The results are also robust at a 1% level in a pooled OLS and random-effects specification for the same model.
Research limitations/implications
The findings provide insights into managing tourism flows concerning transmission, death and vaccination coverage in destination and origin countries.
Practical implications
The COVID-19-induced tourism decline may also be considered another channel through which the global recession has been aggravated. If we convert this decline in terms of loss of GDP, the global figure will be huge, and airline industries will have to cut down many service products for a long time to recover from the COVID-19-induced tourism decline.
Social implications
It is to be realized by the policymaker and politicians that infectious diseases have no national boundary, and the problem is not local or national. That’s why it is to be faced globally with cooperation from all the countries.
Originality/value
This is the first paper to address tourism disruption due to COVID-19 in eight Asia-Pacific countries using a gravity model framework.
Highlights
Asia-Pacific countries are traditionally globalized through tourism channels
This pattern was severely affected by COVID-19 transmission and mortality and improved through vaccination
The gravity model can be used to quantify the loss in the tourism sector due to COVID-19 shocks
Transmission and mortality should be controlled both at the origin and the destination countries
Vaccinations in destination countries significantly raise tourism flows
Asia-Pacific countries are traditionally globalized through tourism channels
This pattern was severely affected by COVID-19 transmission and mortality and improved through vaccination
The gravity model can be used to quantify the loss in the tourism sector due to COVID-19 shocks
Transmission and mortality should be controlled both at the origin and the destination countries
Vaccinations in destination countries significantly raise tourism flows
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Shujaat Abbas, Valentin Shtun, Veronika Sapogova and Vakhrushev Gleb
The Russian export flow is highly concentrated on few trading partners that results in its high vulnerability to external shock. Furthermore, the Russian–Ukraine conflict and…
Abstract
Purpose
The Russian export flow is highly concentrated on few trading partners that results in its high vulnerability to external shock. Furthermore, the Russian–Ukraine conflict and corresponding western sanctions has enhanced the need of export markets diversification for Russia. Therefore, this study is a baseline attempt to explore determinants of export flow along with identifying potential export markets. This objective is realized by employing an augmented version of gravity model on export flow of Russian Federation to 108 trading partners from 2000 to 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
The augmented gravity model of export flow is estimated by using employing contemporary panel econometrics such as panel generalized ordinary least square estimation technique with cross-sectional weight along with heteroskedasticity consistent white coefficients is employed to explore impact of selected macroeconomic and policy variables. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis is performed by using panel random effect along with the Driscoll–Kraay standard errors with pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and random effect generalized least square (GLS) estimator techniques. The estimated result of panel GLS technique is subjected to in-sampled forecasting technique to explore potential export markets.
Findings
The findings show that an increase in the income of trading partners and enhancement of domestic production capacity has significant positive impact on Russian export flow, whereas geographic distance has a significant negative impact. Income of trading partners emerged as major determinant of export flow with high explanatory power. Among augmented variables, the real exchange rate reveals a significant positive impact of lower intensity, whereas binary variables for the common border, common history and preferential/free trade agreement show a significant positive impact. The finding of export potential reveals a high concentration of export with existence of large potential for exports across the globe. For instance, many developing countries in Asia, Africa and America reveal high potential for Russian exports.
Practical implications
The findings urge Russian Federation to diversify its export markets by targeting potential export markets. Many emerging developing countries are witnessing a high potential for Russian exports, therefore attempts should be taken to diversify toward them. The expansion of existing transportation facilities along with development of cargo trade can be important policy instrument to realize objective of export diversification.
Originality/value
This study is the first comprehensive analysis that employs augmented gravity model to explore potential export markets for Russian Federation by using panel data of 108 global trading partners from 2000 to 2020. This finding of this study provides a framework of export diversification toward potential markets across the globe.
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Lazaros Antonios Chatzilazarou and Dimitrios Dadakas
This study deals with changes in European Union's (EU's) trade potential in Machinery (HS 84–85) and Transportation (HS86-89) products.
Abstract
Purpose
This study deals with changes in European Union's (EU's) trade potential in Machinery (HS 84–85) and Transportation (HS86-89) products.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses a Structural Gravity model, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation together with panel data for the years 2002–2018 and a two-step procedure that employs predicted values of bilateral trade to compare potential to actual trade.
Findings
Results for Machinery products suggest a potential to expand trade with existing Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) in the American continent, and countries of the IGAD region in Africa. In Transportation, a high trade potential with RTAs is found in the Americas, Africa and the Middle East. Policy suggestions concentrate on opportunities for enhancing trade relations through trade liberalization and agreement proliferation.
Originality/value
There are no studies to date, that examine “collective” measure of EU trade potential, that treats the EU as a single country. Changes in existing opportunities to expand trade, common for EU members, are of special interest for policy formulation, especially after the recent turmoil presented by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Greek Economic Crisis (GEC). Treating the EU as a single entity, is necessary for the formulation of an effective, common, EU trade policy. This study concentrates on the manufacturing sector to examine existing opportunities for the EU to expand trade, after the GFC and the GEC. This article deals with Machinery (HS 84 and 85) and Transportation (HS 86 through 89) products as they comprise a significant part of total EU exports, reaching 41% of total exports in 2016. Finally, this study offers a unique illustration of results through trade potential heat maps.
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Gustavo Anríquez, José Tomás Gajardo and Bruno Henry de Frahan
The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the impacts that the recent proliferation of private and overlapping standards is having in the trade of agricultural products…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the impacts that the recent proliferation of private and overlapping standards is having in the trade of agricultural products from developing countries.
Design/methodology/approach
In a first stage industry experts in the Chilean fresh fruit trading industry were interviewed to understand the perceived impact that private standards are imposing in the industry. These interviews allowed to identify the market case study, table grapes, the landscape of private standards and their prevalence in different countries. In a second stage, a gravity trade model for trade in table grapes was estimated, with a focus on the more stringent countries identified by experts in the first stage.
Findings
We show evidence that the proliferation of private standards required by large European retailers has diverted trade away from more stringent countries that require more certifications (and into less stringent European markets). We also show that the costs of these additional certifications have been shared by trading partners, via an increase in direct sales, as opposed to consignment (the traditional marketing mode), which is associated with higher prices.
Research limitations/implications
The impacts of the recent proliferation of private and overlapping standards in international trade needs to be better understood both by the legal and economic literature. While the use of private standards has been growing since the 1990s, there is a recent trend of large European retailers imposing their own and overlapping standards that needs to be better understood to inform policy.
Originality/value
While there is a thin literature on the impact of private standards on trade, most of this has studied the effects of the now de facto mandatory GlobalGAP certification. However, there is a recent trend by large European retailers of demanding their own private certifications, together with other already existing overlapping private standards. This study describes and analyzes the impacts of this rather new trend.
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Tongzheng Pu, Chongxing Huang, Haimo Zhang, Jingjing Yang and Ming Huang
Forecasting population movement trends is crucial for implementing effective policies to regulate labor force growth and understand demographic changes. Combining migration theory…
Abstract
Purpose
Forecasting population movement trends is crucial for implementing effective policies to regulate labor force growth and understand demographic changes. Combining migration theory expertise and neural network technology can bring a fresh perspective to international migration forecasting research.
Design/methodology/approach
This study proposes a conditional generative adversarial neural network model incorporating the migration knowledge – conditional generative adversarial network (MK-CGAN). By using the migration knowledge to design the parameters, MK-CGAN can effectively address the limited data problem, thereby enhancing the accuracy of migration forecasts.
Findings
The model was tested by forecasting migration flows between different countries and had good generalizability and validity. The results are robust as the proposed solutions can achieve lesser mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and R2 values, reaching 0.9855 compared to long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit, generative adversarial network (GAN) and the traditional gravity model.
Originality/value
This study is significant because it demonstrates a highly effective technique for predicting international migration using conditional GANs. By incorporating migration knowledge into our models, we can achieve prediction accuracy, gaining valuable insights into the differences between various model characteristics. We used SHapley Additive exPlanations to enhance our understanding of these differences and provide clear and concise explanations for our model predictions. The results demonstrated the theoretical significance and practical value of the MK-CGAN model in predicting international migration.
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Jian Chen, Di Zhao, Yan-Nan Yu and Si-Yuan Wang
The authors empirically examined the theoretically recognized industrial linkages between manufacturing and services from the trade perspective. In particular, they confirmed the…
Abstract
Purpose
The authors empirically examined the theoretically recognized industrial linkages between manufacturing and services from the trade perspective. In particular, they confirmed the trade effect of manufacturing on services, given that global value chain fragmentation pervades and splits manufacturing and services segments separately in developed and developing countries.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on observations of 47 countries with manufacturing and service trade data from 1990 to 2020 and with gravity model specification, the authors primarily used the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation with multiple levels of fixed effects. Considering that many zero values are included in the dependent variable and potential endogeneity, other methods such as Tobit regression, Heckman estimation and two-stage least squares estimation (2SLS) are used. Subsample estimation also supplemented the empirical research.
Findings
The results showed that manufacturing trade is a stepping-stone rather than an obstacle to service trade. This finding exhibited significant robustness under different model specifications, instrumental variable estimation and subsample checks. Moreover, in contrast to the north–north country ties, manufacturing trade between northern and southern countries has played a prominent stepping-stone role; meanwhile, manufacturing trade among core–peripheral countries has a considerably more significant impact than the outcomes of core–core and peripheral–peripheral countries.
Originality/value
The authors provided direct clarification and revealed that trade in manufacturing remains the demand basis for service trade. As trade in manufacturing and services are typical phenomena of transnational production linkages, the authors suggested exploring the underlying role of global value chain (GVC) fragmentation and the offset and even barrier effect of biased institutional arrangements on GVC fragmentation.
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Kanan Elumalai and Anjani Kumar
This paper aims to analyze relative contribution of intensive margin (IM) and extensive margin (EM) to growth in India's agricultural exports for the period 2001 to 2020. It also…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to analyze relative contribution of intensive margin (IM) and extensive margin (EM) to growth in India's agricultural exports for the period 2001 to 2020. It also analyses the determinants of IM and EMs through a standard gravity model.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses export data from United Nations Comtrade, which is accessed through World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) software. Data for the period 2001 to 2020 were compiled for analysis using the Harmonized System (HS) of commodity classification system at the six-digit level. This study decomposed the contribution of IM and EM in the growth of Indian agricultural trade by using Hummels and Klenow's approach. After performing the export decomposition analysis, the authors analyze the factors influencing IM and EM by using the Tobit regression model and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) method of estimation.
Findings
The EM grew at 1.24% per annum, while the intensive margin (IM) increased by 0.23%. The contribution of growth at the EM increased from 58.8% in 2001 to 70.2% in 2020. Export growth along the IM was relatively high for animal products and agricultural raw materials, while growth at the EM was an important contributor to the export growth of horticultural and processed agricultural products. There was a positive and significant effect of the free trade agreement (FTA) on export margins.
Research limitations/implications
More disaggregated commodity-specific studies on value chain analysis would provide valuable insights into the issues hindering exports and realizing the untapped export potential.
Originality/value
There is a scarcity of holistic and recent studies illustrating the role of IM and EMs in agricultural trade growth, covering a large number of commodities and geographies associated with Indian agricultural trade. The study would be helpful to the stakeholders in facilitating informed policy decisions.
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This study aims to investigate two issues: (1) a nexus between climate-related financial policies (CRFP) and global value chains (GVC) and (2) the government’s policies to help…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate two issues: (1) a nexus between climate-related financial policies (CRFP) and global value chains (GVC) and (2) the government’s policies to help countries enhance the efficient use of CRFP in improving a country’s likelihood to participate in GVC.
Design/methodology/approach
To investigate the connection between GVC and CRFP, the authors incorporate that backward participation is measured using foreign value-added, while domestic value-added is used to measure forward participation, quantified as proportions of gross exports. The study analyses yield significant insights across a span of 20 developing countries and 26 developed countries over the period from 2010 to 2020.
Findings
Regarding the first issue, the authors affirm the presence of a linear link between GVC and CRFP, implying that involvement in CRFP is advantageous for both backward and forward participation. Furthermore, the authors identify long-term GVC and CRFP cointegration and confirm its long-term effects. Notably, the expression of a linear relationship between GVC and CRFP appears to be stronger in developing countries.
Research limitations/implications
The study findings, together with previous research, highlight the importance of financial policies relating to climate change (CRFP) in the context of economic growth. Climate change’s consequences for financial stability and GVC highlight the importance of expanded policymakers and industry participation in tackling environmental concerns.
Practical implications
Regarding the second issue, the study findings suggest critical policy implications for authorities by highlighting the importance of financial stability and expanded policymakers in promoting countries' participation in GVC.
Originality/value
This paper investigates the link between GVC performance and CRFP, offering three significant advances to previous research. Moreover, as a rigorous analytical method, this study adopts a typical error model with panel correction that accounts for cross-sectional dependency and stationarity.
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The use of economic sanctions has grown dramatically in recent decades. Nevertheless, many arguments are presented in the public policy space regarding their effects on target…
Abstract
Purpose
The use of economic sanctions has grown dramatically in recent decades. Nevertheless, many arguments are presented in the public policy space regarding their effects on target populations. The author presents the first systematic analysis of the effects of sanctions on living conditions in target countries.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper provides a comprehensive survey and assessment of the literature on the effects of economic sanctions on living standards in target countries. The author identifies 31 studies that apply quantitative econometric or calibration methods to cross-country and national data to assess the impact of economic sanctions on indicators of human and economic development. The author provides in-depth discussions of three sanctions episodes—Iran, Afghanistan and Venezuela—that illustrate the channels through which sanctions affect living conditions in target countries.
Findings
Of the 31 studies, 30 find that sanctions have negative effects on outcomes ranging from per capita income to poverty, inequality, mortality and human rights. The author provides new results showing that 54 countries—27% of all countries and 29% of the world economy— are sanctioned today, up from only 4% of countries in the 1960s. In the three cases discussed, sanctions that restricted the access of governments to foreign exchange limited the ability of states to provide essential public goods and services and generated substantial negative spillovers on private sector and nongovernmental actors.
Originality/value
This is the first literature survey that systematically assesses the quantitative evidence on the effect of sanctions on living conditions in target countries.
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Taiwo Temitope Lasisi, Samuel Amponsah Odei and Kayode Kolawole Eluwole
The current study is designed to investigate the factors that foster the framing of destination competitiveness and establish the factors that drive the contribution of tourism…
Abstract
Purpose
The current study is designed to investigate the factors that foster the framing of destination competitiveness and establish the factors that drive the contribution of tourism innovations to economic growth in smart tourism destinations.
Design/methodology/approach
A four-year panel data were extracted from the World Economic Forum's travel and tourism competitiveness index and data were analysed using Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood regression model.
Findings
The findings demonstrate that both the enabling environment and airport infrastructure significantly affect tourism's impact on the economy of the selected smart European tourism destinations. Conversely, human resources and general infrastructure display a negative correlation with tourism's contribution to the economy. However, no data in the sample support the idea that tourism policies, government prioritization or readiness of tourism information and communication technologies impact tourism's contribution to the economy. Additionally, the marginal effects indicate that improving the enabling environment and airport infrastructure can generate additional benefits for the economy through tourism.
Originality/value
The uniqueness of this study is the integration of smart tourism destinations with the measure of destination competitiveness to provide an empirical bridge that links tourism competitiveness to economic growth.
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